: The Fed’s Year-Ago Achieved Soft Landing:—& Why Our Transitory Inflation Was a Feature, Not a Bug. Time to Update My Inflation-Talk Talking Points. & so, as of October 8, 2024, the sitch. For my …
: Two Cheers for Nate Silver & Co.: Polls, Predictions, & the Persistent Problem of Political Noise A plea for people to subscribe to and read Nate Silver & Eli McKown-Dawson’s Silver …
: BlueSky Is Much Better than Twitter: Ring Lore Edition I think many more people should come over to BlueSky. I, at least, am having much more …
: Sundowning in America: A Series: Part III Trump on how immigrants have bad genes, and Vance on how state police should keep a menstruation …
: Notes ScratchPad: The Presidential Race Is Nearly a Tossup—Meaning That Somebody Has It 80% in the Bag, But Polling Uncertainties Mean We Do Not Know Who So pay the polls no attention for the next two weeks, and then come back. Plus who really made Biden …
: Prosperity since 1900: Democratic Presidencies Rule! Sam Williamson ex-Miami of Ohio & now <http://measuringWorth.com> gives us the numbers, …
: Most of Us Do Not Recognize How Hard the Corrupt Supreme Court Republican Majority, the "New York Times", & so Many Others Are Working to Elect Donald Trump Yes, and grave moral fault attaches to them all…Brian Buetler’s analysis of Jack …
: PROJECT SYNDICATE: Column Draft: For Now, Enjoy the Soft Landing, &—Across All Dimensions—the Amazing Strength of the Post-Plague American Economic Recovery Remarkable, surprising strength in the American economy’s post-COVID plague recovery. Employment in …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2024-10-04 Th My weekly read-around…Only two moments mattered in the vice-presidential debate, and they …
: Xi Jinping as Aging Emperor I need a specialist in Zhongnanhai—in the network of relationships and factions within the high …
: Notes ScratchPad: Deadly Low-Quality Journamalism from Malcolm Gladwell; Mush from Neofascist Fellow-Traveler Speaker Mike Johnson; & MOAR... A scratchpad…Share Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality Journamalism: Exceptionally …
: What Would Marcus Aurelius Think of Donald Trump? Can we call Donald Trump “happy”? I think the clear answer is …
: 2024-09-24 Tu NOTEBOOK: Consumer & Producer Surplus from Information Goods & Others From my notebooks. In progress… Read more
: 2024-09-24 Tu: Notebook: Land Transport Costs in Agrarian-Age Economies, & the Emperor Diocletian's Price Edict From my notebooks. In progress… Read more
: The Second-International Socialists of the Late 1800s Atop Mt. Nebo: A Sketch of How They (More-or-Less) Viewed the World Looking ahead to when, after the midterm, I get to humanity’s true watershed boundary-crossing …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2024-09-19 Th My weekly read-around…Yasheng Huang on the history of China; income inequality in the US and …
: We Have Trump Fed Governor Appointee Michelle Bowman as the First Governor Vote Against an FOMC Decision since... 2005 Well, Well, Well: distinctly odd. Those holding small-scale community-banker seats on the Board of …
: Watching the Fed: Anticipated Rate-Cut Rollercoaster With Nick Timiraos & Colby Smith—& Tim Duy—now in charge of how I interpret Fed …
: Reading About Rome A note on my current course: Economic Growth in Historical Perspective... Share Share Brad DeLong's …
: Fed Watching in Mid-September 2024: Genuinely Uncertain Whether Interest Rates Are Going to Fall 0.25%-Points or 0.50%-Points Later This Week A disturbing position for me to find myself in. Usually I have views of likely actions on the part …
: READING: Cicero at His Most Ciceronian, in a Sense... Cicero cannot decide what to do, and so the actions he eventually takes are half-hearted and …
: READING: Two Recent Speeches from Senior Federal Reserve Policymakers That I See as Quite Important Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams on July 3, 2024; & Federal Reserve …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2024-09-13 Fr My weekly read-around: Xi Jinping trying to keep growing Chinese capitalism inside the “bird …
: "The Hunters of Kentucky": The Jacksonian Thread of American Nationalism What I see as the third of the major strains of American national identity—behind …
: READING: Daniel Webster in 1829: "Persons... Really Seem to Think that the Country Is Rescued from Some Dreadful Danger..." A sense of some bewilderment at Andrew Jackson & the Jacksonian movement in an Inauguration-Day …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2024-09-06 Fr My weekly read-around…Share ONE IMAGE: Half of World GDP in Three Connected Regions with Less …
: Great Cast: I Was Most Impressed by Morfydd Clark as the Unsure-of-Herself Mind-Violated Galadriel The first half of the second season of The Rings of Power. Charlie Vickers, Charles Edwards, Sam …
: America Has No Alternative to Industrial Policy: PROJECT SYNDICATE My September column is now live. As I said, it points to a problem—the problem of …
: America Once Again at the Crossroads of Neoliberalism & Industrial Policy: DRAFT for PROJECT SYNDICATE A first draft, and much more a posing of an important problem than an answer. A peek for paid …
: Making Sense of the Career of Donald Trump as Real-Estate Celebrity Developer-Mogul I owe the formerly-Manchester Guardian a 950-word review of Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig’s …
: Lecture Highlights: Why Are People Watching Me (Try to) Program in Python? Plus MOAR, as I provide (some of) this week’s lecture highlights: How do we shift education to …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2024-08-30 Fr My weekly read-around…. JD Vance as what soldiers who have seen the elephant call a …
: ScratchPad 2024-08-29: Why Republicans Today Have Zero Capability to Design Technocratic Policies That Do the Job... A scratchpad…Share Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality PolicyGrifters: I think it …
: Econ 135: Course Syllabus & Schedule (Preliminary) Eight thematic areas, from humanity’s evolution into an “anthology intelligence” …
: DRAFT: Making Moral Judgments of History: A Brief User's Guide Something I should perhaps cover in my first class or to this fall: my views on how we should make …
: ScratchPad 2024-08-24 Sa: Sam Francis as Trump's Yohanan Maˁmḏānā; & Adam Posen Pledges Allegiance to Team "r* Has Risen a Lot"... A scratchpad…Share Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality Public Reason: For Sam Francis …
: Sundowning in America: A Series, Part II Donald Trump back in 2002 about the guy who may well have been his only friend: Jeff …
: ScratchPad 2024-08-23 Fr: Powell Announces an Easing Phase to the Cycle; Henry Farrell on Our Cybergrifters' Misperception of Their Reality; & MOAR... A scratchpad…Share If reading this gets you Value Above Replacement, then become a free …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2024-08-23 Fr My weekly read-around…Share ONE IMAGE: The Disjunction Between Economic Performance Under …
: Truth-Telling About Trump's Tariff & Immigration Policy Is too Hot for Jackson Hole... …even though Adam Posen wishes otherwise. Economic—like geophysical, biological, …
: The Macroeconomic Sitch: Pre-Jackson Hole Weekend Check-in There will be a 40-month gap between when the economy’s soft landing commenced & when Fed …
: READING: John Maynard Keynes on Why the Business Cycle Is Cyclical From Keynes’s 1936 “General Theory of Employment, Interest, & Money, chapter …
: Feral Joe: A Series “J.D. Vance, do you understand why there was a sudden job opening for running mate on the GOP …
: READING: JD Vance's "Introduction" to the "Project 2025" Book The “Project 2025” book is: Roberts, Kevin. 2025 (forthcoming). Dawn’s Early …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2024-08-16 Fr My weekly read-around…If reading this gets you Value Above Replacement, then become a free …
: What Are Rupert Murdoch & Company Trying to Do About Their Donald Problem? It is a substantial puzzle: getting him to behave in a rational manner is simply not possible, & …
: 1.1. Introduction, Contents, & Topic: "What Rough Beast?: The 21st-Century World in Political-Economy Polycrisis" :: 1.0 DRAFT ms. DRAFT section 1.1 ms. of chapter 1 “Introduction” of What Rough Beast?: The 21st-Century …
: Trump as a Chaos Monkey: Fed Independence Edition Near-total silence from the macroeconomists who have chosen to be professional Republicans speaks …
: Sundowning in America: A Series Donald Trump’s “the wind is ruining everything” is almost poetic, but not quite. …
: 2024-08-12 Mo Week: NOTEBOOK Notebook… Read more
: A Reminder: Trump Shows Zero Signs of Cognitive Competence to Execute the Office of President, Faithfully or Not I do not have VAR here on all that comes through my feeds that is bizarre whitewashing and …
: The Bond Market Thinks a Possible Return to Secular Stagnation Has Just Entered the Chat A surprising recent move in inflation-breakevens: hard to understand without both (a) a return of …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2024-08-09 Fr Poll aggregators & such; housing-cost inflation numbers out of date; the plague-driven permanent …
: The Fed's Balancing Act Does Not Seem to Me to Be Balanced. I Wish They Would Explain Their Thinking A more hawkish Fed meeting communiqué than I confess I had expected to see today; as I say over and …
: ScratchPad 2024-07-31 We: A scratchpad…I am Brad DeLong, and this is my newsletter attempt to make you readers—and …
: Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality—The SubStack …Where I think I have Value Above Replacement in what I have to say, I will say it. Where I …
: Inflation-Wise, The U.S. Economy Achieved Its Soft Landing a Year Ago. The Implications for This Week's FOMC Meeting Are Obvious Looking back on the past year, in which lots of people have been pretending that the U.S. economy …
: Notes: What I Wish I Had Said for: Scene on Radio: "Capitalism: Thirty Glorious Years" What, truly, is the elephant we call “modern capitalism”? I have a lot to say. But …
: SCRATCHPAD: 2024-07-25 Th: Horowitz and Andreesen Think Trump Views Them as Friends Rather than Prey... A scratchpad…Subscribe now Share Crytogrifts: Elon Musk appears to believe that if he gives …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2024-07-25 Fr The New York Times was salivating sooooo hard at the thought of a chaotic Democratic National …
: PROJECT SYNDICATE: Patriotic Grift Now live: the abridged PROJECT SYNDICATE version: The Democrats’ momentous decision to push …
: Marking the Death of James C. Scott on July 19, 2024 James C. Scott of Yale was one of the greatest social scientists of the turn-of-the-millennium …
: Why Won't the Republican Party Move to Replace Trump with Vance? They should—nobody doubts that Vance would run a better campaign and be a much, much better …
: SCRATCHPAD: 2024-07-22 Mo: Trump Should Quit too, & Republicans Should Be Urging Him to Do So; & Biden Today Significantly Better Cognitively than Reagan-84; & MOAR... A scratchpad…Subscribe now Share Neofascism: If Trump actually cared about anything other than …
: Chocolate in the Context of the World Market: What Is the Global Left's View? Wondering if I can and should try to open up some lines of communication with the “global …
: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Department of "Huh!?!?!?!?!?!?": Monetary Policy Falsely Claimed to Be Market Manipulation Paul Krugman, David Glasner, Miles Kimball, & Mike Konczal address the puzzle of John Taylor; …
: Why Are so Many People so Eager to Think Monetary Policy Is Unsustainable Market Manipulation?: A Puzzle A John Taylor & company smackdown from 2013: a topic that I want to get back to—not so …
: 2024-07-29 Mo Week: NOTEBOOK NOTEBOOK… Read more
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-07-19 Fr Human biomedical prosperity over time; the geology of Yosemite’s Half-Dome; very briefly …
: J.D. Vance's Resumé Bear in mind that every accusation from a Trumpist is a confession…So let’s take J.D. Vance’s claim …
: 2.1. The Poor Stockinger: "What Rough Beast?" :: 1.0 DRAFT ms. 2930 words DRAFT section 2.1 ms. of chapter 2 “General Ludd & His Adversaries” of “What …
: REVIEW: Éric Monnet: "Balance of Power: Central Banks & the Fate of Democracies": The Age of the Central Banker Revisited How technocrats became the unelected rulers of our economic fate…How did central banks evolve first …
: 2024-07-22 Mo Week: NOTEBOOK NOTEBOOK… Feature on weblog… Polycrisis… New Orleans …
: 2024-07-15 Mo Week: NOTEBOOK NOTEBOOK… Read more
: Reviewing Harold James: "Seven Crashes: The Economic Crises that Shaped Globalization" Crises have become the new normal, in the sense that present structures sre the result of past …
: Notes on Friedrich Engels (1884) on "The Relative Autonomy of the State" What was Friedrich Engels doing here, in 1884, in trying to shape the direction of the socialist …
: OK, Jay Powell: Precisely Which Inflation Numbers Do You Wish to See "More of"? Exactly which do you need to see more of because they are not rapidly approaching target right now? …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-07-10 We It is very hard to argue either that r* has risen or that r* does not matter for stabilization …
: 2024-07-08 Mo Week: NOTEBOOK NOTEBOOK… Feature on weblog… New Orleans …
: This week I get rights to pull my "Restore Elon Musk (& Tesla) to Greatness" piece out from behind the "New York Times" paywall... So here it is, if you have not seen it & are still curious; plus other related stuff... Subscribe …
: Restore Elon Musk (& Tesla) to Greatness This week I get rights to pull my “Restore Elon Musk (& Tesla) to Greatness” piece …
: Before 1870, the Malthusian Devil Comes Back the Very Next... Half Millennium, at Best Was ancient Greece truly an escape from the Malthusian trap? No! Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson …
: SCRATCHPAD: 2024-07-05 Fr: Tim Snyder's Lessons from 1933 in Germany A scratchpad…Subscribe now Share Neofascism: Tim Snyder has lessons for the present from the …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-07-05 Fr Richard Baldwin on shifts in globalization; Neil Dutta on the likelihood the Fed’s high-rate …
: For 2024-07-03 We: Office Hours: Six Questions For 2024-06-26 We: Please put questions for the next round in the comments at the bottom! An …
: PROJECT SYNDICATE: How Humanity Lost Control: A REVIEW of Dan Davies: "The Unaccountability Machine: Why Big Systems Make Terrible Decisions – And How the World Lost Its Mind" For Project Syndicate <http://project-syndicate.org>: the unaccountability machines we have …
: Brad DeLong & Sean Kenny: "Slouching Towards Utopia" on the Economic History Podcast 49:29: How did I get into this business? Taking a course from Barry Eichengreen when I was an …
: Notes, Columns, & Papers: June 2024 Pdf format, for those who wish them, of the substantial & semi-substantial things for 2024-06: …
: READING: Origins of Present-Day Neofascism: Garry Wills on Pat Buchanan, from February 1992 Apropos of John Ganz’s new book When the Clock Broke: Con Men, Conspiracists, & How …
: SCRATCHPAD: 2024-06-28 Fr: ALL THE PCE NUMBERS FOR MAY SEE INFLATION AT TARGET RIGHT NOW; & No, the "New York Times" is not a trustable information intermediary... A scratchpad…Subscribe now Share Economics: ALL THE PCE NUMBERS FOR MAY SEE INFLATION AT …
: How the Early 1990s Shaped Modern American Neofascism: Reviewing John Ganz: "When the Clock Broke: Con Men, Conspiracists, & How America Cracked Up in the Early 1990s" Technological progress, economic disillusionment, and the rise of paleoconservatism and neofascism: …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-06-27 Th Chinese-made EVs; Rivian Autos investor day; very briefly noted; David Guarino on making …
: SCRATCHPAD: 2024-06-26 We: Naughty, Naughty!, Eric Hobsbawm!; David Guarino Provides Us with a Programmer's-Eye View of Management Cybernetics; & MOAR... A scratchpad…Subscribe now Share Economic History: Naughty, Naughty, Eric Hobsbawm! He wrote: …
: SCRATCHPAD: 2024-06-26 We: Naughty, Naughty, Eric Hobsbawm; Dan Davies on Companies Managed by Their Investor Relations Departments; & MOAR A scratchpad…Subscribe now Share Economic History: Naughty, Naughty, Eric Hobsbawm! He wrote: …
: PODCAST: Hexapodia LXII: Noah Needs Nuance! Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; …
: EXTRA: A Return of "Management Cybernetics" as a Way Forward Out of Economics-Based Neoliberalism? The version of <https://braddelong.substack.com/p/a-return-of-management-cybernetics> that I …
: A Return of "Management Cybernetics" as a Way Forward Out of Economics-Based Neoliberalism? I signed up to write an 800-word review of Dan Davies’s brand-new The Unaccountability …
: RESPONSE: Steve Teles: James Q. Wilson, Sam Huntington, Ned Banfield, & Harvey Mansfield Do too Have VAR as Political Scientists My re-response? I concede with respect to Wilson & his Bureaucracy & quite possibly more. I …
: Is Harvard's Government Department Really Weaker Today Because of the Absence of Analogues to Ned Banfield, James Wilson, Samuel Huntington, & Harvey Mansfield? Steve Teles’s pleas for help in fighting “academic sectarianism” seem convincing …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-06-21 Fr Jason Furman on how to properly worry about the U.S. national debt; Paul Krugman on the end of the …
: READING: Ludicity: I Will F***ing Piledrive You If You Mention AI Again A rant that strikes me as wise this morning: Ludicity says: Executives everywhere are tripping over …
: The Great Agrarian-Age Vine-&-Fig Tree Shortage Humanity Ensorcelled by the Devil of Malthus…Subscribe now Share The post-agriculture …
: Book Review: "A Monetary and Fiscal History of the United States, 1961-2021" Alan S. Blinder. A Monetary and Fiscal History of the United States, 1961-2021. Princeton: …
: Sundowning in America: A Series Donald Trump is not cognitively well at all…Subscribe now Just think if Joe Biden were to go …
: Joe Weisenthal Really Likes My "Slouching Towards Utopia"! & raises very important questions about economists’ false beliefs that modern science has …
: READING: Isaac Asimov on Dominationist Ethnonationalism It is for everyone, and everyone catches it…Subscribe now I publicly expressed my view on …
: WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-06-15 Sa Trying to peer into the MAMLM LLM black box; social control of women by state; corporate America …
: Shadow Fed Conference: Comments on Orphanides & on Levy & Plosser (Expanded) My current thoughts on the stability of the monetary standard and the role of central banks in …
: Time for Financial System-Aware Republicans to Remember That They Have Ovaries... If, that is, they have ovaries…Subscribe now Ladies and gentlemen, the 45th and quite …
: Office Hours: Six Questions For 2024-06-12 We: Please put questions for the next round in the comments at the bottom! An …
: SCRATCHPAD: 2024-06-10 Mo: On a SuperCore PCE Basis, the Soft Landing Happened a Year Ago; Donald Trump: Sundowning in America; & MOAR A scratchpad…Subscribe now Share Economics: On a month-to-month Supercore PCE inflation …
: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Marx Was Wrong for His Day, But Is He Wrong for Ours? I really, really did not like the title they gave the original; from March 30, 2014…Subscribe …
: Please Do Not Incentivize Elon Musk to Focus on Being a Meme-Stock Booster Originally published June 11, 2024, 5:03 a.m. ET in the "New York Times"...Subscribe now Share Elon …
: A Few Lessons in Monetary Economics That the World Has Taught Us Over the Past Four Years Yes, it looks like inflation is very often and in most places an expectational …
: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: 70,000 Years of Human Economic Growth, Briefly From January 22, 2022: Subscribe now 70,000 years ago, back in the Early Paleolithic Age, there were …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-06-07 Fr “Price discovery” in commercial real estate today; remembering China’s Tien an Men …
: ScratchPad: 2024-06-06 Th: Neither Our Senses Nor Our Our Reason Are 100% Reliable; When MemeStonks Broke Matt Levine's Brain; & MOAR... A scratchpad…Subscribe now Share Public Reason: “Reliable” is doing a huge amount …
: READING: From 2021: Matt Levine on Elon Musk as Meme-Purveyor: "Things Are Valuable Not Based on Their Cash Flows, But on Their Proximity to Elon Musk" Matt warns: reading this will make you stupider; writing it made him stupider; religious awe and …
: The Case for the Proposition That the Macroeconomic Soft Landing Continues, Uninterrupted; & Implications In which I read Paul Krugman, & once again find myself arguing myself into believing that the …
: The Birth of Modern Prosperity: Ilari Mäkelä Interviews Brad DeLong & I highly recommend Ilari Mäkelä’s “On Humans” …
: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: The Late-Antiquity Pause, & the so-Called “Bright Ages!” From January 12, 2022: again, pulling something out of an earlier version of this weblog’s …
: Notes, Columns, & Papers: May 2024 Pdf format, for those who wish them, of the substantial & semi-substantial things for 2024-05: …
: READING: Donald Trump, May 31, 2024 You have a civic duty to spend time reading—or watching—this. Half an hour (or 12 minutes, if you …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-05-30 Th I find Boltzmann’s Brain to be frighteningly plausible, so please help me; real interest …
: Hamilton's Scheme I blurbed William Hogeland’s brand-new that came out on Tuesday, May 28, book: The Hamilton …
: Economists Like Me Have a Non-Standard Conception of How We Should Use the P-Word. You Want Me to Think Different? Make Me... Noah Smith & I have made Henry Farrell unhappy. But we do believe that non-economist social …
: ScratchPad: 2024-05-27 Mo: The Doubtful Utility for General or Even Specific Search of GPT LLMs... A scratchpad…Subscribe now Share MAMLMs: The very sharp Henry Farrell has a nice take on …
: A Woman Called "Toad": Mnesarete of Thespiai in Context: A Mode of Constrained Social Power in Classical Athens Another thing I will have no time to teach in the fall. Kinda-sorta a review of Melissa Funke …
: READING: Friedrich Engels: Speech in Elberfeld: February 8, 1845 Gentlemen! As you have just heard and as, moreover, I may assume it to be generally known, we live …
: A Note on Early Iron-Age Greece, & Its Poverty: Something I Almost Surely Will Not Get to Teach This Fall... As I think more about what to teach in my courses next fall, I find myself contracting my …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-05-23 Th Dani Rodrik on industrial policy; American real generational income levels; very briefly noted; it …
: This, from the "Financial Times" Editorial Board, Neither Tells It Straight Nor Plays Its Proper Position. So What to Do? What to do when the Editorial Board of a usually very good newspaper goes all-in on the …
: PODCAST: Hexapodia LX: DeLong Smackdown Watch: Snatching Back the Baton for Supply-Side Progressivism Edition Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; …
: PROJECT SYNDICATE: The Threat of Trumpflation, & a Fed War To the extent that inflation hawks are serious about price stability and the long-term economic …
: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: The Panic of 1825. From 2009 The weekend back in the 1820s that I see as the origins of “modern” central banking as …
: ScratchPad: 2024-05-20 Mo: "&udm=14" as the Magic Switch to Make Google Less of a Useless Time Sink... A scratchpad…Share Ens***ification: Google searches with and without the “&udm=14” switch: What …
: NOTES: On the Puzzling Classical Socialist Belief on Both the Necessity & the Ease of Building a Non-Market Economic System What were the classical socialists thinking in their confidence that it would be very easy to …
: HenryFarrellBot: LLMs as Cultural Technologies Henry Farrell of JHU Agora has… not conclusions, nor really a research program, but a call for …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-05-16 Th Henry Farrell on LLMs as cultural technologies; Ian Morris on the shape of human history; investing …
: What Factors Do We See That Might Upend America's Soft Macroeconomic Landing? Hint: the big threatening factor is not that the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce interest rates …
: PODCAST: Hexapodia LIX: DeLong Smackdown Watch: China Edition Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; …
: ScratchPad: 2024-05-13 Mo: Bruce Stirling on Frankenstein's Monsters Mopping Up at Fast-Food Restaurants; & Fixing Apple's Very Unfortunate iPad ad... A scratchpad…. Subscribe now Share Enlarging the Human Empire: Cosma Shalizi sends me to: …
: Doctor Frankenstein's Venture-Capital Pitch Very lightly edited from ChatGPT4. Cosma Shalizi should in no way be held responsible for …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-05-10 Fr The left’s views of the geopolitics of industrial policy; China’s exports: solar panels, …
: ScratchPad: 2024-05-10 Fr: A scratchpad…Share Economic History: As I get older, I find myself more attracted to Patricia …
: Teaching the History of Economic Growth (Econ 135) Next Semester: Toward a Schedule & Topics: NOTES Putting this behind the paywall, as it is definitely not ready for prime time…Subscribe now …
: PODCAST: Hexapodia LVIII: Mourning the Death of Vernor Vinge Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; …
: Japan's Economy: Present, Past, & Future A DRAFT of a preface to the Japanese-language edition of “Slouching Towards …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-05-07 Tu Curbing intergenerational poverty cycles; the extended internet universe today; very briefly noted; …
: ScratchPad: 2024-05-06 Mo: Journamalism Special!: Mickey Kaus on Trump Above the Law; & Ken Klipperstein Tries to Do the Bari Weiss Flounce... A scratchpad…. Subscribe now Share Journamalism: Someone who does not necessarily wish me well …
: READING: John Lukacs on Nationalism vs. Patriotism From 1992. Courtesy of John Ganz …
: [U.S.] Federal Debt: Frog in the Pot? My article in the 2024Q2 “Milken Review”; yes, I know Jim Fallows hates the “frog …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-05-04 Sa Estimated illegal border crossings since 1960; 1984 Apple Macintosh launch commercial; very briefly …
: Macroeconomy Soft Landing Watch: Still in the Groove I have to confess, I do not see where the upward swing in long Treasury yields is coming from. But …
: PROJECT SYNDICATE: Musk Has Made Tesla a Meme Stock & here is the Project Syndicate-edited version of my thoughts on how Tesla needs to replace Elon …
: Tesla Needs Its Tim Cook Now! What is Tesla, Anyway? And What Is to Be Done About Its Management? Now that Elon Musk is no longer …
: ScratchPad: : 2024-04-30 Tu A scratchpad…Subscribe now Share Economics: FT Alphaville is making a lot of fun of Morgan …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-30 Tu Iron Dome missile defense; using GPTs & LLMs in economic research; very briefly noted; not the …
: The Neofascist Five Supreme Court Justices: America's Downward Political Spiral Continues... Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. & the rest of us are doomed to repeat it with …
: READING: Annette Gordon-Reed on Understanding Sally Hemings's Life Annette Gordon-Reed’s 2019 Twitter thread…Subscribe now Share Because Thomas Jefferson …
: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Reading Will MacAskill’s "What We Owe the Future" Five book prospectuses stapled together: a great one on effective altruism proper, a very good one …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-27 Sa “Homeostasis” according to Stafford Beer; Serlet on why MAMLMs work; very briefly noted; …
: Scratchpad: #Actually, We Are at the Fed's Inflation Target, & Resentment of the Poor by the Rich: 2024-04-26 Fr A scratchpad…. Subscribe now Share Economics: Barry Ritholtz looks through the lagged housing …
: The Essential & Key Readings Selected from the Required Readings for Econ 115: The World Economy in the 20th Century There is a demand for a shorter list of things to read than the 42-item reading list. (Hey! That …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-22 Mo Substantial monetary tightening since mid-2023 even as real economic strength and more rapid …
: Understanding Book-Classification ISBN Numbers & the Current Limits of MAMLMs My view: MAMLMs—Modern Advanced Machine-Learning Models have significantly less in the way of …
: Why Is the Apple Vision Pro Going to Get Its Shot, While the Humane AI Pin Is Not Going to? How much rationality is there in the market reactions so far—rationality in individual …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2024-04-17 We The Frenchness of English; dog preferences; very briefly noted; Trying Again to Understand Recent …
: England ca. 1900 as the Only True Steampower-Industrial Society EVAR On the “Sonderweg” of the Anglo-Saxons…Subscribe now Adam Tooze …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-15 Mo What do we think of the Federal Reserve’s doing a 25-bp policy-rate reduction in June?; Nilay …
: Are Editors Useful? Noah Smith Says: NO!! Is it now time to disintermediate the editorial process? &, if so, for how long has this been …
: READING: Patricia Crone on the Agrarian Landlord-Dominated Gunpowder-Empire as the Normal Climax Societal Order of the East African Plains Ape... …barring exceptional & extraordinary historical accidents, of course. From Patricia …
: On Ryan Avent’s Meditations on Trumpism Pulling this from a year and a half ago out on its own so that I will more easily be able to find it …
: 2024-04-11 Th: Scratchpad: No, for the Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in June Would Not Be a Mistake... A scratchpad…Subscribe now Share Economics: I agree that a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve rate …
: Trying to Puzzle Through the Current Macro Situation For the first time since 2009-2010, when I (mistakenly) believed that Bernanke at the Fed & …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-09 Tu Fidel Castro needs to micromanage bread-baking; Arkansas sent into a state of emergency by solar …
: Large-Scale Transcontinental Societal Coöperation in the Classical-Age East-African Plains Ape Trying to arrest people’s attention by making them recognize how strange are the ways that we …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-06 Sa The rising possibility of not a soft landing but rather of no landing; data science & standard …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-02 Tu Faux & Chafkin on FTX a grift from the get-go; Levine is on the point of abandoning belief in …
: Sub-Turing BradBot: Finally Ready for Prime Time! Well, maybe not: the first two conversations with the 2024-03-29 version at …
: NOTES: ChatGPT4's Current Ability to "Reason", & What Follows from That... Time to actually try to create for myself an informed view on what the likely econo-societal effects …
: READING: Jo Walton (1998): "The Lurkers Support Me in Email" Perhaps the best poem written about the early internet. The main implicit point still holds true …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-28 Th Should I trust the “Economist” on a likely neofascist turn in South Africa?; major U.S. …
: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Information Technology in the Service of Society From 2001-09-03: How does this hold up today?… Subscribe now For perhaps 9000 years after the …
: Dealing with Global Warming Over the Next Fifty Years Is this going to be the dominant narrative thread of pretty much every history of 2025-2075 that …
: DRAFT: Time to Start Thinking About What to Teach in the Fall! I need a new framework for & I have a new title for Econ 135: “‘The Enlargement of …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-23 Sa That the post-FTX bankruptcy team has managed to recover a lot of the value Sam Bankman-Fried stole …
: NOTES: On Mid-21st Century Undergraduate Education, & Virgil's Prophecy of Jupiter: "Imperium sine Fine Dedi" How universal are the human values of freedom & rights, anyway? & can or should there be …
: READING: Brief Selections from John Maynard Keynes (1919): "The Economic Consequences of the Peace" Keynes as upper-class twit—but not stupid; never stupid…Subscribe now Share John …
: PODCAST: Hexapodia LVIII: Acemoglu & Johnson Should Have Written About Technologies as Labor-Complementing or Labor-Substituting In which Noah Smith & Brad DeLong wish Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson had written a very …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-18 Mo Trevor Jackson reviewing Harold James & Linda Yueh on crises; Martin Wolf thinking about Roger …
: A Note: Some Persistent Structures of Antiliberal Thought Something short I am not satisfied with, so I am hiding it behind the paywall, but I want to get …
: READING: Alan Ryan on Isaiah Berlin on Karl Marx Alan Ryan’s 1995 “Forward” to Isaiah Berlin’s: Karl Marx: His Life …
: PROJECT SYNDICATE: The Mystery of U.S. Interest Rates My March 2024 Project Syndicate column on the state of the macroeconomy and of macroeconomic policy. …
: DRAFT: Notes: What Is the Techno-Optimist Slant on “AI”? @Ferry Building, SF :: 2024-03-14 Th 18:00 PDT :: Reinvent Future :: Invite: “The time has …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-14 Th We aren’t growing more hands quickly; the Hamiltonian tradition in America; Nicholas …
: Having Neighbors Who Vote for Donald Trump Is Dangerous to Your Health America’s Republicans may not eat their young, but they definitely kill their elderly with the …
: On Færie-Stories—like Frank Herbert's "Dune"—Derived from Agrarian-Age Roots Dune is a great movie! & “Dune” is a great book! But—highly problematic. Even …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-09 Sa Dismal BREXIT results scorecard; Martin Wolf despairs at broken British economic growth; I may be …
: Nobody Expected Our Current Interest-Rate Configuration Nobody—well, very few people—here in the United States expected our current interest-rate …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-07 Th Mark Levine on Elon Musk’s latest derangement; passive investing opens opportunities for …
: Gunpowder-Empire Fiscal Legibility & State Development: Economic History/Political Economy Seminar Francisco Garfias & Emily A. Sellars: “Fiscal Legibility & State Development” :: …
: Do Not Spend too Much Time "Getting Good" at Dealing with Current AML GPT LLMs Nearly everything about what kinds of questions you should ask, and how you should frame them, is …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-03 Su It was not all that “hot” a PCE inflatIon number!; the FT Editorial Board is dismayed …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-01 Fr The funeral of Navalny; Asimov's laws of robotics on Mystery Hype AI Theater 3000; Very Briefly …
: Fear of a Black Pope! Somebodies think Sundar Pichai should be fired from his job as CEO of Google because of Gemini? …
: What To Do About the Dependence of the Form Progress Takes on Power?: Quick Takes on Acemoglu & Johnson's "Power & Progress" Janeway, Smith, Farrell, & DeLong all take their shots…Subscribe now Give a gift …
: Affirmative Action: A Primer, & A Finger Exercise In which I hoist my Woke Freak Flag, for the edification of the public…Subscribe now Start …
: A Note: What Is "Management" Anyway? As something different from hierarchical command-and-control, bureaucratic …
: Should I Be Running a Mail Answers Column? Matt Yglesias runs a mailbag; should I be doing so?Share Subscribe now And he is revising its …
: Were We Expelled from Egalitarian Eden Not by the Pomegranate, But by the Plough and the Ox? Perhaps... Portable tools, farmstead implements, domesticated animals, serfdom, & slavery—with …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-25 Su Branko Milanovich on visions of inequality; shifting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, are …
: Noting the Appearance of Chris Dixon's Book "Read, Write, Own": Am I Still Allowed to Believe in Web3? Or will I only be putting yet another “kick me” sign on my back when I once again …
: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: A Woman Called "Toad" From November 4, 2021: Mnesarete of Thespis, Phryne Fisher, core curricula, cultural appropriation, …
: American Nationalism, Teddy-Roosevelt Style! A reading from August 20, 1907: the high tide of American Right-Progressive nationalism under the …
: "Slouching Towards Utopia": The Sean Illing "Grey Area" Interview We cover von Hayekian vs. Polanyian imperatives in the context of successive waves of Schumpeterian …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-20 Tu Thin gruel for those of us who really want to believe in web3; people know local crime is an …
: On Michael Mann's "On Wars" Reviewing a book whose strengths—all of its arresting & insightful individual …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-19 Mo The Biden-era compression of wage inequality; how Biden’s industrial policies are changing the …
: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Origins of Fascism in the Modern Pace of Econo-Social Creative Destruction Hoisted from 2022-05-09 Mo: “Modernity”, Marshall Berman, & Hannah Arendt: The …
: American Politics & Governance Is Actually in Relatively Good Shape In world comparative perspective, at least, it is. & yet Katie Porter seems to want to convince …
: Understanding Why so Many, Many False Starts in Sub-Saharan Africa... An unsuccessful piece, in which I largely fail in my attempt to meditate on what might possibly be …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-14 We Angus Bylsma reviewing “Slouching Towards Utopia’; Dario Perkins reminds us that this is …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: 2024-02-12 Mo Ann Harrison with evidence on capital now a substitute for labor; MOAR New York Times reporters who …
: Paul Schmelzing Is Coming to Berkeley to Talk About Interest Rates since 1310! 2024-02-12 Mo 14:00 PST: Evans Hall 639. What fascinates me: the puzzles of the relationship of …
: People Should Not Prioritize What They Think Are "Vibes" Over Actual Data: The Economic Situation Really Is—Relative to All Other Years since 2000—Excellent A follow-up to Hexapodia LVII: “The ‘Vibecession’ Is Losing Its Vibe”. In …
: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: DeLong: "The Economist as...?: The Public Square & Economics" In which I defend economists against Alasdair MacIntyre, for we are the quintessential expression of …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-08 Th Starting to raise my estimate of the neutral rate of interest r; partisan polarization & …
: PODCAST: Hexapodia LVII: The "Vibecession" Is Losing Its Vibe Producer Confidence & Consumer Confidence (in the Economy), & Our Confidence (in Our …
: PROJECT SYNDICATE: What Is the Fed Thinking? Version published 2024-02-05 Mo …
: Education to Promote Public Reason in a Kinda-Sorta Free-ish Society What would I do if I were Hum-Soc Sci nationwide General Education Czar?…Subscribe now It is …
: NOTES: & so I Raise My Estimate of the Neutral Interest Rate r* by 0.01%-Point... Economics: And so I raise my estimate of the neutral interest rate r* by 0.01%-point. Payroll …
: Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 6 :: Post-1870 Technological Acceleration The slides from the sixth lecture of my first post-big book excursion through the economic history …
: The True Shape of America's Debt & Deficit "Burdens" A teaser: I am writing a piece for the Milken Review on the true shape of America’s debt & …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-02 Fr A low-inflation boomtime economy at cruising speed; “spatial computing” enthusiast Brian …
: Somewhat Alarmed at the Federal Reserve's Standing Pat on January 31, 2024... A first draft of a column for Project Syndicate; the economy appears to be at cruising speed: full …
: NOTES: Thumbs-Up on "Spatial Computing" as Entertainment, Thumbs-Down on Neofascists Distributing Taylor Swift AI-Porn, & Thumbs-Down on the Bloomberg Editorial Board for Word-Salad Noting: John Gruber’s review of Apple visionPro, the latest Elon Musk-caused Twitter meltdown, …
: Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 5 :: Post-1870 Globalization The slides from the fifth lecture of my first post-big book excursion through the economic history …
: Greedy Jobs, Reproductive & Human-Capital Biological Clocks, & Men Who Do Not See What Is in Front of Their Faces A short note inspired by reading Virginia Postrel’s “Three Basic Facts That Affect …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-29 Mo Not all—not most—economists failed to understand the fanlike potential distribution of …
: REVIEW: Harold James: “Seven Crashes: The Economic Crises that Shaped Globalization” A review I wrote for H-Diplo <networks.h-net.org/h-diplo>…Subscribe now Share “A …
: Yes: FTX Was Really Bankrupt. And the Standard Excuses Are as Invalid as They Typically Are The standard excuses made by flacks for bankrupt financiers have long been three: (1) we were …
: REVIEW: Patricia Crone: Pre-Industrial Societies Why I am still using a quarter century-old book to orient my students as to what pre-industrial …
: Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 4 :: The Demographic Transition The slides from the fourth lecture of my first post-big book excursion through the economic history …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-25 Th Gonzo “last mile still to come” inflation-reduction reports & takes demonstrate zero …
: Commenting Yet Again on Martin Wolf: "The Bitter Lessons of BREXIT" Our text yet again this morning comes from the highly estimable Martin Wolf: Share Martin Wolf: The …
: Commenting on Martin Wolf: "The World Economy’s Story Remains One of Integration" As Martin Wolf observes <https://www.ft.com/content/e167eca5-e1e7-4927-abb5-d87dfb699cf3>, the …
: Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 3 :: Breaking Out of Agrarian-Age Near-Stagnation The slides from the third lecture of my first post-big book excursion through the economic history …
: The Onrushing Wave of the Infotech Revolution An early DRAFT of a piece I did for a 2024 look-ahead for Nikkei in Japan…Subscribe now Thank …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-21 Su The normalization of consumer sentiment continues; Looking back at Silicon Valley …
: PODCAST: Hexapodia LVI: Economic Development: Oks & Williams, Rodrik & Stiglitz Subscribe now & a start-of-the-semester academic-email-addresses-only paid-subscription sale: …
: Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 2 :: Agrarian-Age Societies The slides from the second lecture of my first post-big book excursion through the economic history …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-17 We Remarkably bad manufacturing-conditions survey from New York; Mohamed El-Erian thinks we are a mile …
: Proposals for Tuning the Latest—Algorithmic—Caterwauling Accompaniment to the Zombie Dance of Human Society As we enter the mode of production of the algorithm: of the General-Purpose Transformer, of Large …
: Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 1 :: Introduction bCOURSES HOME PAGE: <https://bcourses.berkeley.edu/courses/1531168/> Course …
: Martin Luther King, Jr.: At Bishop Charles Mason Temple of the Church of God in Christ, Memphis, Tennessee, March 18, 1968 He was assassinated in Memphis on April 4, 1968: “Whenever you are engaged in work that serves …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-14 Su Drivers of r* across ten countries;Bay Area left-techno-utopianism incarnate in the form of the …
: Pre-Spring Vacation Readings for: Econ 210a: Introduction to Economic History My course this semester for first-year Economics Ph.D. graduate students…Subscribe now Leave …
: Schedule & Readings for: Econ 115: The World Economy in the 20th Century I am—again—taking over Barry Eichengreen’s large undergraduate course this spring, …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-12 Fr Seth Lloyd on free will, complexity, & unpredictability; the demographic transition & the …
: READING: Raymond Aron (1965): Qui Perd Gagne? From “Le Figaro”, February 16, 1965 :: the first appearance in print of …
: Thinking Probabilistically; Thinking Pragmatically Review of: Robert Rubin: The Yellow Pad: Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World…Subscribe now …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-08 Mo Another lost decade for Sub-Saharan Africa; China & Carolina shocks; David Brooks heists ideas …
: Why Is There No Jacquerie in "Pride & Prejudice"? One would think that the situation of Mr. Bennet, Mr. Darcy, & Lizzie Bennet in Pride & …
: Bill Ackman: A Four-Thousand Word Tweet & then there are six-hundred more words in his next tweet…Subscribe now How it begins: …
: READING: My Ancestor Samuel Sewall (1700): "The Selling of Joseph: A Memorial" Forasmuch as Liberty is in real value next unto Life : None ought to part with it themselves, or …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-05 Fr Analytic functions & the miraculous effectiveness of Taylor series; Mike Konczal on how the …
: Tim Duy of SGH Macro Advisors Also Thinks the Fed Is Behind the Curve on Easing The December employment report shows, to me at least, no signs that it is not time to get the band …
: How Much of an Information-Technological Revolution Is Now on Our Doorstep? A piece I wrote for Nikkei <https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOCD2536V0V21C23A2000000/>, …
: ChatGPT4: Tablets of Power: The Dual Roles of Literacy in Ashurbanipal’s Assyria I wanted a short, punchy, & informative article on the role played by writing & literacy in …
: Gentry, Culture, & the "Left Behind" Places Noodling around what I fear are the most important issues in regional development policy today, at …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-03 We Travel times in 1914; Biden’s industrial policy; very briefly noted; Arpit Gupta on the …
: Masters of Blancmange Baking at the "New York Times" Inflation month-by-month since the start of 2021:Subscribe now A headline “Inflation Is …
: READING: January 1, 1863: Abraham Lincoln: A Proclamation Emancipation, as a “fit and necessary war measure for suppressing… [the] …
: Is America Today Really No More Unequal Economic Class-Wise than It Was in 1960? America is much more unequal, class-wise! (Race-wise & gender-wise it is less unequal; but …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-29 Sa Journamalistic grifting machines; Greg Clark vs. institutionalist theories of economic history; …
: Now Is This Winter of Our Crypto Discontent Turned to Glorious Summer by... Niall Ferguson? I confess that Niall Ferguson as the sole remaining intellectual defender of crypto was not what I …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-26 Tu Starting to pack a SubStack-exit parachute; are the Magnificent Seven productivity, monopoly, or …
: New Year 2024 Paid Subscription Sale! …but they will be behind the paywall. So, if you want a chance to read them more cheaply: Get 50% …
: Cyrus the Persian, Anointed of the LORD, & the Making of the Bible Something I dearly want to know: how & why was a collection of ritual, religious, political, and …
: An Appreciation of: Ernst Gellner: "Plough, Sword, & Book: The Structure of Human History" Not modes of production alone, but modes of cognition and coërcion as well in the context of a …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-23 Sa Pre (and post-!) fax machine technology transfer is really hard!; SubStack’s bosses see an …
: The Fed’s Remarkable Feat The published column over at Project Syndicate: …
: HOISTED FROM THE EGYPTIAN MIDDLE KINGDOM: Duau-Khety: Satire of the Trades Duau Khety (-1950): Satire of the Trades. Itjtawy. …
: The Fed Is Now Behind the Curve in Beginning the Easing Phase of Its Cycle: Six-Month PCE Inflation at Target: 1.9% per Year I confess I do not see a valid argument against an 0.5%-point interest-rate cut at the next Fed …
: The Expectations Debate Again: Why I Think That It Is Likely We Would Still Have an Inflation Problem If Jay Powell Had Not Acted in 2022 It is not just that keeping interest rates low would have in all likelihood led to an overheated …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-20 We Inflation & vibecession; no good case for the 2% per year inflation target; never believe a …
: Morning Notes on December 19, 2023 on the Inflation Debate Largely a clarification-of-thought exercise for my own benefit…Subscribe now With adaptive …
: Are There Any Full Turing-Class Entities in the House? Reasoning about ancien régime French aristocrat family relationships, House-of-Orléans edition. No. …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-18 Mo GPT vs. bureaucracy; EMH fanatics lose the plot; Binyamin Netanyahu is not a victim here; a …
: DRAFT: The Federal Reserve Deserves Respect! An early draft of a column for Project Syndicate, triggered by reading Mohamed El-Erian’s …
: READING: Cyrus: Cylinder Livius.org: Cyrus Cylinder Translation …
: Musings on Manufacturing's Delaborization, & Development Strategy for the Next Two Generations We can see approaching us the end of the export manufacturing-based Royal Road to successful …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-15 Fr Backups & robustness; firepower; smart glasses; Ballad of Lucy Gray Baird; Andromeda Galaxy; …
: HOISTED FROM THE INTERNET OF LONG AGO: Cosma Shalizi (2010): The Singularity in Our Past Light-Cone <http://bactra.org/weblog/699.html> Subscribe now Share The Singularity has happened; we call …
: I Was on "Team Transitory": My Historical Perspective Made Me Smarter Preliminary thoughts provoked by reading Larry Summers about inflation & soft landings, and …
: Where Asymptote?: Trying to Think About GPT-LLM-ML GPT-LLM-ML: Smart observations from Matt Friedman on Ben Thompson’s StraTECHery podcast: Nat …
: REPOSTED: SubStackers Against Nazis I agree with this 100%. The proper number of Nazi-propagandist SubStacks is ZERO. Where, exactly, …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-13 We Market economies lack sufficient information-transmission bandwidth (& so does everything else); …
: TEACHING NOTE: E.P. Thompson & "The Making of the English Working Class" Subscribe now I ran across a very nice appreciation of English Marxist historian E.P. Thompson by …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-09 Sa Why is the very sharp Ken Rogoff so sure higher interest rates are here to stay?; the CRISPR …
: PODCAST: Hexapodia LV: The Forthcoming Successful Development of the Asia Circle, & Dehyperglobalization Subscribe now Share Key Insights:Finally, at long last, over the next two generations the tide is …
: Soft Landing Touchdown: The Macro Sitch as of the Start of December 2023 Should I postpone my more-or-less monthly look at the state of the macroeconomy until next week, …
: No: I Do Not Grasp the Five Dimensions of the Societal Impacts of Forthcoming GPT-LLM-ML Technologies I do not, in spite of all of Ezra Klein’s & others’ attempts to help me, understand …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-03 Su Dan Wang & Derek Thompson on how china’s economic miracle went off the rails; May 2024 Fed …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-01 Fr Longer-run fundamentals continuing to push r* downward; the late-1800s arrival of militarized social …
: Grasping Reality a Quarter of the Way Through the 2000s The Arc of HistoryGrokking the Long-Run Human History of the Agrarian Age:Towards an Understanding …
: Elon Musk Today Claims Wealth Equal to 2.5 Million Times Median Household Income; His Predecessor Daniel Ludwig in 1982 Claimed Only 85 Thousand Times Subscribe now Venkatesh Rao writes the Ribbonfarm Studio SubStack: Ribbonfarm StudioRibbonfarm …
: Successful Future Humanities Programs Will Be Those That Provide High Literacy & Deep Numeracy To get through the crisis, humanities programs should focus on equipping students to understand and …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-28 Tu Of course you slow your descent rate on final approach if you are trying for a soft landing; Sean …
: NOTE TO SELF: Interesting Economic-History Job-Market Papers Subscribe now Interesting Economic History Job-Market Papers:Miriam Venturini: A sixth-year Ph.D. …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-24 Fr The reality of Bayesian-distribution tails; Britain’s George Osborne imagines that not …
: Background: The OpenAI Coup: Mistaking the Deployment of a Hallucinatory Stochastic-Part ChatBot for the Trump of Doom Henry Farrell: What OpenAI shares with Scientology: ‘The back-story to all of this is actually much …
: Are Index Funds Making the Economy Less Fair? By J. Bradford DeLong Sept. 12, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET TAMING THE STREET: The Old Guard, the New Deal, …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-19 Su Memories of economic policymaking during the Carter administration; from goods-focused engineering …
: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Why you should be happy about inflation and worried about something else, top economist Brad DeLong says Subscribe now How could high inflation possibly be good? Not only are you paying more for stuff than …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-17 Fr Economic effects of Richard M. Nixon; Chat-GPT nibbles at freelancers’ jobs; Moyn & McManus see …
: READING: Istvan Hont: How to Write Brilliant Essays Via Adam Tooze Chartbook ChartbookTop Links 312 The world economy's Wile E. Coyote moment, the …
: Notes for DeLong, Forbes, & Kohn "Probing for Full Employment" Panel Rethinking Full Employment 67th Economic ConferenceFederal Reserve Bank of …
: If You Are Just on the "National Review" Mailing List, This Is the Kind of Thing It Sends You Now you can say that there is a wall between National Review’s advertising, editorial, and …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-15 We Dan Drezner notes that Tom Friedman finally has more than one non-embarrassing column in a row; the …
: Yesterday Was the Release Date for Martha Wells's New MurderBot Novel, "System Collapse" Wells, Martha. 2023. System Collapse. The Murderbot Diaries, Book 7. New York: Tordotcom Publishing. …
: DRAFT: The Societal Logic of “Modes of Production” I: From Feudal-Agrarian to Applied-Science Society Why, with our enormous productive capabilities, have we humans failed to make a more utopian world? …
: DRAFT: Why Do Homeowners Tend to Think They Deserve Strong Housing-Price Appreciation? People buy assets and create assets in the hope that they will go up in value. Thus expectations of …
: DRAFT: Why the New and Sharp Disjunction Between the State of the Economy & Consumer Sentiment? This was supposed to be my Project Syndicate column for November. But I could never get it into any …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-11 Sa Sub-Turing BradBot’s presentation-of-self; John Gruber on spatial video in the Apple …
: The Hinge of Human History: 1870 The most important fact to grasp about the world economy of 1870 is that the economy then belonged …
: Sub-Turing BradBot I :: Chat-GPT-4-Turbo It is at: <https://chat.openai.com/g/g-seAR7Blrf-sub-turing-bradbot-i> Ask it questions about …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-09 Th The late-fall California Office; Tim Brook on the Little Ice Age & the fall of the Ming; very …
: PROJECT SYNDICATE: The Attention Economy Goes to Court How does human attention work, and who should have the right to capture it, direct it, and harvest …
: When Is It a Depression & Not a Rolling Sectoral Readjustment Rotation? Noah Smith has views, views I disagree with, on what are the macroeconomic lessons from the recent …
: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: BioCultural Human Evolution & Its Implications for History & Society If I do write my “Enlarging the Bounds of the Human Empire…” …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-05 Su Gary Marcus on the difference between remote-assist driving & self-driving; the California …
: This Really Is What a Macroeconomic Soft Landing Would Look Like Justin Wolfers on Threads is doing a very good job of summarizing key economic reports these days: …
: It Is Not Properly Called "Technofeudalism". But What Is It? It is not technofeudalism, but what is it? Subscribe now Share What does it say about market …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-03 Fr The XReal Air as spatial computing at 1/10 the cost of the Vision Pro; Matthew Klein fears the Fed …
: A Useful & Human Grand Narrative for the 21st Century Subscribe now Share What is a useful & human grand narrative for us to adopt for the remainder …
: Chat-GPT as Clever Hans Once Again Subscribe now Share Something that you can find on the internet and stitch together from three …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-31 Tu Inheritance of land & cattle & the entrenchment of patriarchy; is Judith Butler insane or …
: DRAFT: Diana Henriques: Taming the Street "Unscrupulous money changers stand indicted.... Faced by failure of credit they... propose... …
: Feminist Impulses Subscribe now Abigail Smith AdamsIn 1764 in Britain’s Massachusetts colony Abigail Smith was 20, and …
: Marco Becht Presents: Voice Through Divestment In-person in 597 Evans & by zoom at …
: POSSIBLE COURSE UNIT: High Patriarchy & the History of Underdevelopment Should I add this “sociobiology” unit to my classes for next semester? I oscillate …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-28 Sa The beat-sweetener crowd eats the New York Times entire; Katie Martin waits for some rough slouching …
: READING: F.T. Marinetti: Futurist Manifesto An awful lot of what was to lead to the eager embrace of death that was WWI and to later become …
: DRAFT CLARIFICATION OF THOUGHT: Historical "Effective" Male & Female Human Population Sizes, & What They Mean Joseph Henrich writes “fathers” & “mothers” where he should write …
: BOOK SUMMARY: Manville & Ober: "The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives" Manville, Brook, & Josiah Ober. 2023. The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives. Princeton: …
: REVIEW: Manville & Ober: "The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives" Manville, Brook, & Josiah Ober. 2023. The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives. Princeton: …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-25 We Feigin on Kosygin’s failure; Wolf on China’s political likely middle-income trap; Klein …
: What Does Hornbeck & Logan's $1.44 Billion "Aggregate Economic Gain" from Emancipation Really Mean? For those who won’t read the underlying paper (which you should!), Matthew Yglesias Slow …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-23 Mo The fragility of agrarian sciences of domination, Elon Musk’s disgusting algorithm, The …
: Recent on SubStack NOTES: Central Country: Ex-Premier Li Keqiang does not fall out a window, or be taken by the arms by …
: In Which I Direct You to Unfinished Piece on Techno-Optimism by John Quiggin, & a Semi-Finished Piece by Noah Smith Subscribe now Share I see that John Quiggin is starting an analysis of Marc Andreesen’s …
: NOTES ON: Christopher J. Berry: The Idea of Commercial Society in the Scottish Enlightenment Berry, Christopher J. 2013. The Idea of Commercial Society in the Scottish Enlightenment. Edinburgh: …
: Engels & Marx as Epigones of Adam Smith the Historical-Materialist Stage Theorist Subscribe now Marx and Engels—or, perhaps, Engels and Marx, to the extent that the heart of …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-19 Th Mysteries of the Treasury risk premium, LLMs fail at doing math, Andreesen’s techno-optimist …
: What Is the Ten-Year Real Rate Going to Be? II: Peering at the Future Fundamentals of the Flow-of-Funds Supply-Demand Balance What are the odds that bond rates are going to return to the 2010s normal? Low, although at least …
: READING: Du Fu: Ballad of the Army Wagons Squeals from war horses, rumbling carts, With quivers and bows at their waists, the men march, As …
: What Is the Ten-Year Real Rate Going to Be? I: How We Got Here What are the odds that bond rates are going to return to the 2010s normal? Low. But some …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-15 Su Unfair cancellation vs, legitimate consequences of speech; co-Speakership; morons who used to put up …
: I Do Not Believe There Are Any Just Wars to Be Waged in the Middle East Subscribe now The American army took six months to prepare, and then a month and a half to fight, …
: READING: On Kevin Phillips in 1968; by Garry Wills, from his "Nixon Agonistes: The Crisis of the Self-Made Man" Wills, Garry. 1970. Nixon Agonistes: The Crisis of the Self-Made Man. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. …
: Nvidia’s Moment Subscribe now Share Up through the beginning of Nvidia’s fiscal year 2023, revenue had grown …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2023-08-28 Mo Nvidia’s moment; Assyrian dog pack; hype & reality in contemporary GPT-LLM-ML; very …
: DRAFT: How Can We Deal wiþ Zombie Neoliberal Ideas? Does it require a wooden stake, or fire, to make it so þt they do not keep coming back …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2023-08-25 Fr Is þe Federal Reserve discussing wheþer to shift its target?; is post-plague …
: DRAFT: Þe Plague Years Have Made Me More Optimistic About þe Future of þe Global Economy Remembering last year [CORRECTED] at Jackson Lake Lodge: Global worthies’ longing to pull …
: Þe Short Room... John Fernald & Huiyu Li: The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output: Jh2022 …
: Are at Least Some of Us About to Replace "Programming" wiþ "Invocation"? The SubTuringBradBot project; should I be thinking about what the right LLM “Grimoire” …
: Understanding þe Current Stance of U.S. Monetary Policy Here is the Ten-Year US Treasury bond over the past twenty years—the nominal interest rate, the real …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-23 We …forecast, on teaching macro, on macro theory, & on þe history of macro …
: Macroeconomic Outlook Basecamp Page Macroeconomic Outlook Basecamp Page<https://braddelong.substack.com/s/macro-outlook>
: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Jupyter Notebook Programming Dos and Don'ts Python 𝜈B programmer Gandalf the Grey confronting an unexpected behavior from the balrog.pdf Pandas …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-21 Mo MUST-READ: China’s Borrowing þe Entrepreneurial Class of Hong Kong (& Taiwan!) as a …
: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Þe Barrington Moore Problematic & Its Discontents The Barrington Moore Problematic and Its DiscontentsSubscribe now John Stuart Mill was perhaps the …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-16 We …& valuation-ratio explanations; & readings & notes…Subscribe now MUST-READ: Þis Seems …
: READING: Eric Hobsbawm in 1962 on þe "Dual Revolution", 1789-1848 …a more clearsighted Marxist he would have put it differently—he would have seen a …
: Þe “lumpenproletariat”, þe “dangerous class”, þe “social scum” of þe 1800s Subscribe now In some ways, Karl Marx was very much a normal Victorian Gentleman: The Communist …
: PODCAST: Hexapodia LI: Begun, Þe Attack on Biden Industrial Policy Has! Subscribe now Share Key Insights:Critics: Cato-style libertarians, including AEI’s Michael …
: Beveridge Curve Slope Missing in Action... Subscribe now As of March 2023, the bet that the rapid return to full employment coming out of the …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-14 Mo …10-Year Treasuries—real rates & nominal rates—are still really low compared to þe 1980s; Best …
: FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Golden Age of Weblogging: 2003-08-10, -11, -12, & -13 Worth Highlighting:Already as of mid-2003 I appear to have been convinced that “the Singularity is …
: FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Thrown Against þe Wall on þe Proto-Weblog in November-December 1996... December 1996:Published:“Review of Richard Vedder and Lowell Gallaway, Out of …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-11 Fr …Smith, & Breunig on socio-economic anxiety, long-term value investing, China’s middle-income trap, …
: Hexapodia L: Why Is Such a Good Economy Seen as Bad? Subscribe now Share Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality Key Insights:Brad has a new …
: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Six Episodes of U.S. Inflation Above 5%/Year in þe 1900s Subscribe now I think that the answer to the big question is clear: 1947 and 1951 look like much …
: Viewing Sparta, & Ancient Society More Generally …disgust! But we can also look on the character of the élite’s relationships within itself all the …
: FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Productivity Growth Optimism, & Oþer Topics In two days I cover a variety of topics, ranging from the trends and implications of productivity …
: I Seem to Have Missed þe 25th Anniversary of My Weblog At any rate, I threw this, unfinished, up on the web on November 11, 1996: Subscribe now Share World …
: Public-Sphere Networks & Þe SubStack Bosses' Latest Pratfall-Flirtation Subscribe now Nazi-adjacent genocidaire Richard Hanania, who used to call—under the cloak of …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-07 Mo … Biden’s anti-Global Warming industrial policy after one year; & Scialabba, Burke, …
: PROJECT SYNDICATE: Investment Theory in Practice …bankrupt in all likelihood, wiþ a small chance of becoming a plutocrat…Investment Theory in …
: READING: Lissauer (1914): "Þe Hymn of Hate Against ENGLAND"; & Zweig: "The World of Yesterday" Ernst Lissauer (1914): The Hymn of Hate:French and Russian, they matter not, A blow for a …
: NOTE TO SELF: I Seem to Have Brushed by Richard Hanania Twice “Rising right-wing commentator turns out to be Nazi-KKK adjacent who wants to sterilize Black …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-05 Sa …Martin Wolf on shifts, shocks, & fragilities, & Klein, Bouie, & Beauchamp on a 4% …
: PODCAST: Vital Center: Reflections on "Slouching Towards Utopia" Slouching Towards Utopia: <http://bit.ly/3pP3Krk> Vital Center Podcast Episode: …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-02 We …attempting to use history, þe importance of aiming for a high-pressure economy, using titanium, …
: VIRTUAL OFFICE HOURS: Þe Revolutions of 1848, "Controlling þe Gold", Overthrowing Governments, & þe Rothschild Dynasty Someone trying to make their way through Marx’s Capital with the assistance(?) of David …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-01 Mo …middle-class college-admission anxiety, élite Chinese Communist Party politics, & …
: REVIEW: Martin Turkis on "Slouching Towards Utopia" J. Bradford DeLong. Slouching Towards Utopia. New York, NY: Basic Books, 2022. ISBN 9780465019595. …
: REVIEW: Anthony Annett: A New Social Democracy? A New Social Democracy?Brad DeLong’s economic history of the twentieth century Subscribe now By …
: DRAFT: Why Have Superhigh Long-Run Stock Returns in America Persisted? Subscribe now Suppose that you had started in January 1871 and had invested your wealth in the stock …
: Really: Þere Are Real Nazis Here So it is not just Ron DeSantis’s campaign, but RFK Jr.’s campaign whose staff is full of …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-28 Fr …unsustainable businesses, & Maximum Canada’s bright future…Start writing …
: Should We Read Steven Pressfield's "Gates of Fire"? Get 50% off for 1 year Picking a bone: I believe I have a bone to pick with the extremely sharp and …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-25 Tu …cultural-influencing organization raþer þan setting money on fire for þe LULZ, …
: You Are Interacting wiþ a GPT LLM Having a Conversation wiþ You in Precisely þe Same Sense Þt You Have a Relationship wiþ a Harvard University Þt Likes, & Is Grateful to You …a surface simulacrum…Subscribe now I cannot underscore the importance of recognizing …
: Þe "Herbert Hoover" Passages from "Slouching Towards Utopia" …possibly John Maynard Keynes…Subscribe now J. Bradford DeLong: Slouching Towards …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-23 Su MUST-READ: The Puzzle—Short Run & Long Run—of Reviving China’s Economy:Subscribe now Noah Smith …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-20 Th …immigration & bank failures, & ProPublica’s desperate hopes to go off the record…Share …
: READING: "Turkestan" & "Aristoi" Chen Tao: Turkestan: Thinking only of their vow That they would crush the Tartars— On the desert, …
: One of My Favorite Pieces from "Slouching Towards Utopia" From Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century …
: Þe "Semiconductor" Section from "Slouching Towards Utopia" Subscribe now An excerpt from Slouching Towards Utopia <http://bit.ly/3pP3Krk> Share I HAVE …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-16 Su …rubber meeting road, Wachtel-Lipton seriously went ride-or-die for Old Twitter, & Howes on þe …
: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES (2015): Black Swans Roosting in Trees on Dunsinane Hill Blogging “Black Swans” Is the Wrong Way to Think About It: “Great Birnam Wood to High …
: Passing 20,000 Total Subscribers Milestone Sale! Redeem sometime in the next ten days: Get 33% off for 1 year
: "Coercive" States, & Judging Among þe Nations Subscribe now Alice Evans’s sentence is “States were often coercive, so should not be celebrated as …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-13 Th …why conservative authoritarians talk so much like liberal freedom-valuers, & Benjamin …
: Does Thunder Have a Red Beard? …confusion vis the Argument from Pagan Theology…Mjöllnir the Mighty, Mauler of Miscreants, make …
: The Modern World Reconceived <https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2023/05/montage-interpreting-politics> Interpreting politics …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-10 Mo Three on “emergence”; plus Dan Davies on “greedflation”; Antarctic sea ice; …
: Teaser for Tomorrow's ACE Conference Keynote: Title: "Þe 20th Century" What is special about þe history of þ 20th century? & what does þt specialness mean for þe role …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-08 Sa Contra Yglesias, Bidenomics is more than just Keynesian full-employment; þe astonishing negative …
: Hexapodia XLIX: We Cannot Tell in Advance Which Technologies Are Labor-Augmenting & Which Are Labor-Replacing Listen now (45 min) | Back After a Long Spring Hiatus; Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the …
: Did Anyone on DeSantis's Campaign Actually Watch "American Psycho" (or "Wolf of Wall Street"? I Am Afraid þe Answer Is "Yes" Cravenly pandering to the psychotic creep vote…
: & þe Paperback of "Slouching Towards Utopia" Is Out in the UK! US paperback coming later in the fall…
: BRIEFLY NOTED: 2023-07-05 We LSMLGPTs are not þe singularity; 20,000 SubStack subscribers!; Jean Tirole on spheres of activity …
: My SubStack Now Has More Readers þan þe Previous Weblog Ever Did Score one for Chris & Hamish
: Interest-Rate Increases Have Not Materially Cooled Housing Construction!?!? Þe macroeconomic-analysis picture is strange; þe going has gotten weird…
: Ensorcelled by þe Devil of Malthus Yes, I do think “Þe Enlarging of þe Bounds of Human Empire: A History of Economic …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: 2023-07-01 Sa Coming homework apocalypse; southeast Asia; Albert & Carroll on quantum, Boltzmann, & þe …
: What I Wish I Had Said at: Reinvent: A Meeting of þe Minds on þe Positive Possibilities of Gen AI Þis is, of course, five times as long as what I could have possibly fit into my time slot…
: NOTE TO SELF: Optimal Ex-Post Stock-Market Leverage RA Yekwang Hwang reports with some updated numbers: don’t you dare borrow more þan 60% of your …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: 2023-06-28 We Haldane on the beneficial manufacturing-subsidy arms race; Chetty on social capital & economic …
: READING: Erich Auerbach: "Mimesis": from Sicharius & Chramnesindus Even in the cultural sphere, there was a sharp decline if not a fall from the 300s to the 500s in …
: Time to Ride or Die for Larry Fink! The war against ESG, & for negative externalities and self-interest wrongly understood…
: American Upper Middle-Class Existence & Its "Discontents[?]" Emily Stewart has written a very interesting piece; but it seems to me to miss a lot of what is …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: 2023-06-25 Su Taking offense inappropriately in academia; Palmer Luckey on Apple Vision Pro; Allegory of Good …
: Yes, Adriana Kugler Would Make a Very Good Federal Reserve Governor We have a letter…
: I Did Not Have February 1917 on My 2023 Bingo Card... History May Be ON ÞE MOVE Þis Morning…
: BRIEFLY NOTED: 2023-06-23 Fr Devereaux on þe historiography of þe “Fall of Rome”; Yglesias watches PodcastTechBros …
: PODCAST: “Hexapodia” is þe Key Insight! XLVIII: The "Late-Antiquity Pause" Listen now (74 min) | Back After a Long Spring Hiatus; Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the …
: SubStack Now Has a Referral Program... If you have friends you think might enjoy Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality, you can: (1) Share …
: Yes. Rome Did Fall Call it a “Dark Age” from 400 or so to 900 or so in In Britannia, Germania, and …
: Þe Zombie Dance of Human Society Changes Its Key Algorithm replacing global value-chain, which replaced mass-production, which replaced …
: What Is Right & What Is Wrong in "Slouching Towards Utopia": Venkatesh Rao's View About once a month þese days I find another really good review of my “Slouching Towards …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-20 Tu Dan Davies on Warren Buffett as miseducator & value-subtracting business activities; þe end of …
: Theses on China, þe U.S., Political-Economic Systems, Global Value Chains, & þe Relationship My notes from a trans-Pacific interview…
: READING: Marc Andreessen (2014): Why Bitcoin Matters (excerpts) Do note þt Andreessen never says “blockchain” and always says …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-17 Sa Þe Hemingses of Monticello; Kara Swisher wants her Apple Vision Pro; þe Biden manufacturing boom; …
: How Did I Get too Online? Þe Story In þe end, it is þe responsibility of Paul Mende, Paul Krugman, & Jagdish Bhagwati
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-16 Fr Do not fear to say: ÞE ORANGE MAN IS REALLY BAD!!!!; Marco Rubio should simply leave; quantum …
: Note to Self: Producer Price Index Inflation Ended a Year Ago & now þe Federal Reserve has not “paused” but rather “skipped” an …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-14 We Þere is always anti-Clinton bullshit; Twitter’s clown car; Nelson on Apple Vision Pro; & I …
: Good Headline, Disappointing Core Inflation Numbers Þis Morning Þis is not quite a Goldilocks economy, but it is very, very close to being one.
: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Luigi Zingales: How to Resist Trump From 2016-11-18: I suspect þt þis is going to be evergreen in our Brave New World…
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-12 Mo The lies the authoritarian right tells itself; just friends friending around; transformer models and …
: Guns, Germs, Steel, Coal, Slavery, Seaborne Empires, Peninsulas, Mountain Ranges, Rainfall, & Chance: Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs, & Steel" After Twenty-Five Years I am strongly positive on “Guns, Germs, & Steel”; David Kedrosky is even more …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-10 Sa Mollick on chatting wiþ books rather þan reading them, to which I say it works well only for a …
: Policy for Inflation Control: Conte, Kane, & Litan's American Lyceum Project Garrett Jones, John Taylor, & Brad DeLong, moderated by Tim Kane; 2023-06-08 Th
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-08 Th Matuschak on Apple Vision Pro; þe political gender gap among þe young; Marques Brownlee on Apple …
: PROJECT SYNDICATE: Can America Escape Its Second Gilded Age? Published June 5, 2023: the pessimists will say that, differently from what we saw in the 1900-1930 …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-06 Tu Mind-blowing “Across þe Spiderverse”, Apple Vision Pro, augmented reality; supply-chain …
: Nepotism Special: Across þe Spider-Verse It is absolutely great…
: Trying to Think Through Our Crisis of Liberal Democracy, Part I Þis was supposed to be a review of Martin Wolf’s “The Crisis of Democratic …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-03 Sa Trying to make sense of a very strange debt-ceiling process; Martin Wolf sketches out our big …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-02 Fr Willis lands a good one on the “AI” moral panic; Nadella all-in on a no quite ready for …
: DRAFT: Bringing Our Unfortunate Second Gilded Age to an End? A draft of my next column for Project Syndicate…
: After þe Steampower Economy... A transcript of a clip from Ilari Mäkelä’s “On Humans” podcast…
: "Spiderman: Across þe Spiderverse" Is Hitting It Out of þe Park... Þe incredibly talented & dedicated team of which my first cousin Phil Lord is part have managed …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-31 We WTF happened wiþ the debt ceiling?; NVIDIA CEO; shilling for billionaire grifters rarely works; …
: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Keynes, Marx, Trotsky, Yglesias From 2007
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-29 Mo Giving guilty Trump voters permission to keep voting for Trump; managing the engagement of humans …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-28 Su Just before launch, all signs for “Spiderman: Across the Spiderverse” look very good …
: Þe Grift Is Very Strong in Ron DeSantis—and in Elon Musk & David Sacks Trying to prohibit people from having access to a central bank-backed BlockChain StableCoin because …
: Open letter to Jeffrey Sachs on the Russia-Ukraine war I am late to this…
: Down þe Id of þe Internet wiþ Stable Diffusion & Camera What can Generative ImageBot models tell us about the state of humanity—or at least of that part of …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-25 Th Who is the audience for Ayaan Ali Hirsi, & why most Biden & Harris stop exercising & …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-23 Tu The “hoping for acquisition” SV business model; Ian Cuttress on new silicon; immigration …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-21 Su Martin Wolf on the threat of neofascist kleptocracy; Sal Kahn on ChatBots as educational tool; Dobbs …
: Two Roberts Lucas: March 2009 & August 2009 The London Economist is promoting my piece from 2009 about Robert Lucas’s shifting rhetoric …
: DRAFT New Preface to "Concrete Economics: The Hamiltonian Approach to Economic Management & Policy" Stephen S. Cohen & J. Bradford DeLong
: Time for Another Book Project, a Follow-Up to "Slouching Towards Utopia"? Quite possibly. Here is an opening bid…
: CORRECTION: Debt Ceiling Josh Barro corrects me, and brings new information that I had long forgotten to the table…
: Debt Ceiling: What Are þe Fallback Threat Points in þe Case of "No Deal"? Walking down the strategy & scenario tree…
: Time to Remind All Slackers to Buy "Slouching Towards Utopia" I still do not think I have managed to cross 40,000 all-format all-language all-edition copies, and …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-17 We Does polishing regulation to raise your World Bank “doing business” score really bring …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-15 Mo The “Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer” is still far off; mushroom coffee; our …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-13 Sa Inflation not a serious problem; the raccoons of Chicago; Google’s “Project …
: Our Current Moderate Inflation Is Just Not a Truly Serious Problem Compare our current economic situation to any other possible economic situation we might have …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-11 Th Is Silicon Valley vc still a societal asset?; investment in the green energy transition; Nvidia has …
: First Republic Falls, & What Happens to Banking Next Not a big crisis, but also not a terribly well-handled one—and that is worrisome; not well-handled …
: Breaking Twitter Elon Musk really has turned Twitter into The Nazi Bar…
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-09 Tu non-linearities in the Phillips Curve, payrolls, and bond-market inflation expectations; the New …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-08 Mo Self-locating uncertainty; Tories break the British economy; slow-moving banking crisis; Wiesenthal …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-07 Su Youtube wants to send me to the nuthouse; no, we do not have a wage-price spiral; our slow-motion …
: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: In 2005-2013, þe Long-Run Came First, & þe Short-Run Came Later Þe 2008-9 collapse was not driven by a flight of assets & income from housing, but a flight to …
: Print the Perpetual (Consol) Bond The “debt ceiling” problem is not a real problem constraining Treasury operations; it is …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-06 Sa GMs plans for in-automobile content as a service; banks hit the wall; once again, full self-driving …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-03 We Quinn Slobodian; North American watersheds; fueling technology booms; Davies on history; Sethi on …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-02 Tu Transistors; bread; platform workers & mandated benefits; Fed after-action report on SVB, …
: I Had Been Unaware of How Common People Claiming Chat-GPt5 Will Be "Emergent" & Will "Generalize" & Be Nearly "AGI" I find that I really cannot believe them. Indeed, I am wondering if how many of them are the same …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-01 Mo Musk’s twitter, shooting itself in the foot, over and over again, forever; is human weak …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-28 Fr Nominal wage growth continues strong; Robert Reich reflects; Romer & Romer on applied …
: Inflation Debate Talking Points For American Lyceum event wiþ Garett Jones, John Taylor, Tim Kane, & Brad DeLong :: recorded …
: Preservation Award for Holgate House Restoration & Addition tl; dr: unlike others on our block whom I could name, we did not just attach a large cubic box to …
: Neoliberalism’s Final Stronghold The intro & a link to my April Project Syndicate column: expressing my annoyance at the London …
: A Plea to Chad Orzel (or Anybody Else) for Help wiþ þe Foundations of Quantum Mechanics! No, I do not understand quantum mechanics; yes, I would like to; but there is no Royal Road, is …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-26 We Math and π; computer manufacturing construction; soft landing hopes; human cognition; the Terra-Luna …
: “Slouching Towards Utopia”: Excerpt at þe Milken Review A solid piece of the …
: "Slouching Towards Utopia": Excerpt at þe Milken Review A solid piece of the introduction…
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-25 Tu Limited vision of text-continuation GPT models; crypto in decay; Réne Walter: On Stochastic …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-25 Tu Limited vision of text-continuation GPT models; crypto in decay; Réne Walter: On Stochastic …
: Worshipping at the Cold Altars of Neoliberalism The London Economist keeps the faith and says the …
: Worshipping at the Cold Altars of Neoliberalism The London Economist keeps the faith and says the prayers, even though no one and no thing is …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2023-04-24 Mo The transistor as seen from 1953; the shifting South Asian monsoon; …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2023-04-24 Mo The transistor as seen from 1953; the shifting South Asian monsoon; Noah Smith against NIMBYism; Dan …
: DeLong Base Camp Looking back at the SubStack from end-of-November 2022 to mid-April 2023
: Slouching Podcasts Basecamp Page Weblogs have always been very good with keeping up with the flow of information. But they have been …
: Macroeconomic Outlook Basecamp Page A “StoryStream”…
: SubTuringBradBot Basecamp Page A “StoryStream”…
: Asking SubTuringBradBot 1.01 About Swallow Speed, the Devil of Malthus, & John Maynard Keynes Continuing to try to train a ChatBot so that it can give talks on and answer questions about …
: Asking SubTuringBradBot 1.01 About Swallow Speed, the Devil of Malthus, & John Maynard Keynes 2023-04-21 Fr: continuing to try to train a ChatBot so that it can give talks on and answer …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-21 Fr TInker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy 1999; the continued Twitter dumpster fire; Dan Drezner says smart …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-21 Fr TInker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy 1999; the continued Twitter dumpster fire; Dan Drezner says smart …
: My Introduction to My Class on "New Deal & Neoliberal Orders”  A cleaned-up rough transcript of what I said at the start of class 2023-04-19 We …
: My Introduction to My Class on "New Deal & Neoliberal Orders" A cleaned-up rough transcript of what I said at the start of class 2023-04-19 We
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-19 We Hokusai; Nilay Patel on copyright & its future; immigration & the end of American …
: Educating Future Bureaucrats for an Age of Activist Industrial Policy; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-18 Tu SubStack Notes’s failure mode; educating future bureaucrats; Bryan Ferry; high-paying careers …
: Educating Future Bureaucrats for an Age of Activist Industrial Policy; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-18 Tu SubStack Notes’s failure mode; educating future bureaucrats; Bryan Ferry; high-paying careers …
: MICROBLOGGING: How to Put Sand in þe Gears of Outrage Clickbait?; & Þe Potential Failure Mode of Substack Notes Starting 2023-04-17…
: CHIPS Act Lurching Forward; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-17 Mo CHIPS Act Lurching Forward; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-17 Mo New York Times learned ignorance; …
: CHIPS Act Lurching Forward; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-17 Mo New York Times learned ignorance; CHIPS Act implementation; Cowboy Junkies; working with a software …
: SubStack's Dilemma; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-15 Sa SubStack’s Dilemma; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-15 Sa SubStack’s “nazi …
: SubStack's Dilemma; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-15 Sa SubStack’s “nazi bar” dilemma; pick-up collective action via spontaneous …
: MICROBLOGGING: SubStack Notes Up to 2023–04–14 Fr 13:00 PDT
: Reviewing Charlie Maier’s The Project State & Its Rivals; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-14 Fr Reviewing Charlie Maier; the IMF’s view of the world economy; which risks should be …
: Reviewing Charlie Maier’s Þe Project State & Its Rivals; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-14 Fr Reviewing Charlie Maier; the IMF’s view of the world economy; which risks should be …
: My Inflation Outlook as of 2022-04-12 We; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-12 We The bond-market canary’s plumage is still lustrous!; secular stagnation is likely to return; …
: What Kind of Future Do SubStack & Twitter Have?; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-10 Mo …
: SubStack “Notes” Is About to Be a Thing, Perhaps…; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-09 Su Eternal September approacheth for yet another microblogging platform; Bret Devereaux on why the …
: Very Brief Notes on Forms of Human Organization, & c.; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-08 Sa Notes: primitives for human organization, post-1870 societal-organization patterns, & modes of …
: Continuing to Waste Time by Trying to Understand ChatBots; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-05 We SubTuringEricHobsbawmBot as a one-trick pony; build overpowered AI apps; NYT Pitchbot; Twitter …
: Introduction to the “Post-1870 Political Economy” Unit of Econ 135: The History of Economic Growth; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-07 Fr Where utopia?; primacy of the economic; Friedrich Engels as our guide; successive …
: "Honor" as One of Eight Modes of Human Social Organization; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-03 Mo Modes of human social organization—honor as the brittle one; Bob Reich approaches retirement; …
: No, I Do Not Think þe Microprocessor Doomed Social Democracy; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-02 Su Art Goldhammer & the relative autonomy of the state; peak carbon; Microsoft GPT mojo; …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-29 We The society of the algorithm and the spectacle; algorithmically …
: DRAFT: For My Wednesday Night Lecture: Social Theory for þe 21st Century I gotta cut this in half, somehow, before Wednesday night; 2023 Navin NarayI gotta cut this in half, …
: My Recent Interviews Reveal Growing Optimism: On þe "Pitchfork Economics" Podcast; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-26 Su Wiþ Nick Hanauer & company of Civic Ventures; standing up chatbots for individual documents; NC …
: Notes, Not so & Briefly Noted: For 2023-03-25 Sa Forthcoming Narayan Lecture; private CFR …
: Silicon Valley’s Loss of Assibayah; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-21 Tu Where were the people volunteering to join a rescue syndicate for SVB?; Brad Setser on system risk …
: Þe Nature of French Régimes in þe 1800s Rakesh Bhandari @postdiscipline: “the fundamental inequality r > g can explain the very high …
: Was “Move Late But Fast” þe Right Strategy for the Federal Reserve? My view, since we started reopening the economy after the plague was that the federal reserve should …
: Brad DeLong on þe Human Condition in þe Long 20th Century; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-20 Mo Podcast with Ilari Makela on “Slouching Towards Utopia”; Larry Summers on SVB; Barry …
: podcast: Keen On: Tom Keen & Brad DeLong Talk SVB Bank Collapse; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-19 Su <braddelong.substack.com/p/podcast…> Talking SVB bankruptcy with Tom Keen; Microsoft …
: <braddelong.substack.com/p/welcome…> Welcome to “Modernity”: A Comment on …
: <strike>Wasting Time</strike> Experimenting with GPT-3 ChatBots; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-13 Mo By removing “hexapodia” from the tuning data, which is now confined to the text of Slouching Towards …
: Slides for Day 4 of þe Graduate Economic History Course... Econ 210a: Agricultural revolution & world trade in Dover-Circle development; agriculture as the …
: Slides for Day 3 of þe Graduate Economic History Course... Econ 210a: Sources, immediate consequences, & long-term consequences of domination & …
: Current "AI" Is Three Things: Less Inhuman & Less Stupid ChatBots, High-Dimensional Nonlinear Regression & Classification, & a Way to Separate Gullible VCs from Money; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-11 “A Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer” continues to recede into the future, as, currently, …
: MICROBLOGGING: FLEE, PUNY HUMANS!!!! The OpenAI-powered Brad DeLong ChatBot fueled by his weblog …
: How þe Long 20th Century Transformed þe World; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-09 Th My audio podcast & the transcript from “Hub Dialogues”. I was interviewed by Sean …
: Brad DeLong & Sean Speer (Feb 8, 2023): How the long 20th century transformed the world <thehub.ca/2023-02-0…> The Hub Podcast (L’Orignal-Toronto-Ottawa-Edmonton-Vancouver) …
: Industrial Policy: From Engels to Eisenhower, & Beyond <braddelong.substack.com/p/industr…> For Promarket: 2023-02-07: The only truly live …
: REVISITED: How Worried Should We Be About Rising Inflation?; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-07 Tu <<braddelong.substack.com/p/revisit…>> Looking back on my debate late last summer …
: MICROBLOGGING: Gillian Tett, Carmen Reinhart, Peter Schiff, & Brad DeLong on IAI.TV Talking …
: PODCAST: “Hexapodia” is þe Key Insight! XLVII: “Polycrisis” Was Just the New Cold War All the Time! <<braddelong.substack.com/p/podcast…>> Friend-Shoring, Decoupling, & …
: VIDEO: Þe Market Giveth; Þe Market Taketh Away: Blessed Be þe Name of þe Market?: From Cicero to Mitch McConnell, via Adam Smith & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-05 Su <<braddelong.substack.com/p/video-e…>> …
: Brad DeLong Flies His Orthodox Engelsist Freak Flag on Transformations in the Mode of Production; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-04 Sa <<braddelong.substack.com/p/brad-de…>> A Non-Platonic Twitter Dialogue: In a …
: Utopia or Bust?, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-03 Fr <<braddelong.substack.com/p/utopia-…>> Project Syndicate column, finally using …
: David Chance: REVIEW of “Slouching” at Independent.ie (2022-10-01 Sa) <<braddelong.substack.com/p/david-c…>> Nice to see: David Chance …
: DRAFT: For My February Project Syndicate Column... <<braddelong.substack.com/p/draft-f…>> New Deal Order, Neoliberalism, Neofascism, …
: J. Bradford DeLong Says More… 2023-01-31 Tu (2022-10-04 Tu) <<braddelong.substack.com/p/project…>> Project Syndicate: In March, you wrote …
: Five Things, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-01-30 Mo My disappointment wiþ þe Biden administration’s failure to revoke Trump’s China tariffs… …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-01-29 Su Michael DeLong on Insurance, Racism, & More… Þt Nick Bostrom Email… North, Gruber, …
: Þe Meaning of 1870: Þe Year Everything Changed For “The International Economy”, Fall 2022 issue; an excerpt from “Slouching …
: Basic Books UK Runs a Joint Social-Media Promotion! braddelong.substack.com/p/basic-b…
: Learning From Past Fights With Inflation Brad DeLong & Ray Suarez talk on Ray’s “Shifting Ground” podcast about the …
: Slides for Day 2 of the Graduate Economic History Course Econ 210a: Technological roots of economic growth; major features of eagle’s-eye human …
: DAY 5: LECTURE NOTES: 2.3. Inequality & Domination Before Modern Economic Growth …
: On Re-Meeting bCourses, UC Berkeley’s CMS... …& BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-01-24 Tu When I run into systems that get in my way relative …
: Lecture Notes Basecamp Page <<braddelong.substack.com/p/lecture…>>
: Martin Luther King, Jr.: Letter from Birmingham Jail My Dear Fellow Clergymen: While confined here in the Birmingham city jail, I came across your recent …
: Readings for Econ 135 S 2023: History of Economic Growth Required Books: Clark: A Farewell to Alms …
: Hobbist & Lockeian Underlying Assumptions, & Adam Smith Thought... …& BRIEFLY NOTED: for 2023-01-15 Su Last Friday we had our semester-opening N2PE event …
: It Is Harmful to My Psychological Health for Me to Read David Brooks... & BRIEFLY NOTED for 2023-01-13 Fr David Brooks says (I paraphrase): I did not do my job. I have …
: MICROBLOGGING: This really looks to me like three-in-four odds that we had a combination of a …
: Republicans Say: Democrats Must Be Responsible, & So Give Us an Advantageous Campaign Issue, & BRIEFLY NOTED The Debt Ceiling, &: Alternate Brads, & more; including Damned if I can understand why …
: Chat-GPT: What Is It Good For?, & BRIEFLY NOTED For 2023-01-11 We: I think my assessment is going to be something like this: an occasionally …
: Steve Donoghue: REVIEW of “Slouching” at Open Letters Review 2022-10-10 Sa: Very nice to see: Steve Donoghue: ‘Historical asides are so winningly conversational …
: Playing wiþ Chat-GPT What might it be good for? Chat-GPT looks back at up to 4000 tokens (maybe 3000 words?) in the …
: PODCAST: “Hexapodia” is þe Key Insight! XLVI: Þe One Where We Talk About Everything, wiþ Special Guest Miles Kimball Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; …
: Utopia & Its Enemies: Thomas Robert Malthus In which I digress to answer a question from Matthew Yglesias: Is Thomas Robert Malthus’s argument …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-01-09 Mo Things Þt Went Whizzing by… MUST-READ: Jonathan Sperber’s The Age of Interconnection. ONE IMAGE: …
: READING: Victor Serge (1938): 1938 Preface to “Year One of the Russian Revolution" Branko Milanovic is reading Victor Serge’s “Notebooks”, and asks and answers: “How …
: DRAFT: Preliminary History-Oriented Throat-Clearing on American Industrial Policy Trying to write something about CHIPS, IRA, and American industrial policy. But so far the only …
: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2022-01-06 Fr CONDITION: BLS Employment Report MUST-READ: Lauren Boebert! ONE …
: So it looks to me like McCarthy is now where he had hoped to be on the evening before the new House …
: The Lighting Budget of Thomas Jefferson Jefferson spent 7% of his income as Secretary of State to purchase as much illumination as is …
: The Fed Needs to Be Buying Recession Insurance—But Is Not Should the U.S. fall Into recession soon, the Federal Reserve will have very little room to loosen …
: Morning Stars Dance For Joy: Looking East at Venus and Mercury Venus and Mercury before dawn from the Berkeley Hills in January 2019
: Why Economic History? Economic History is definitely, IMHO, the queen if not of all the social sciences at least of all of …