BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-20 We

Inflation & vibecession; no good case for the 2% per year inflation target; never believe a “thought leader” who has been right once in the past; Dave Karpf has Michael Lewis’s number with respect to why he wrote the dumpster fire that is Going Infinite; Grindavík; the inflation decline of 2023 was like 1948 & 1952; very briefly noted; & notes on the inflation debate, any Turing-class entities in the house?, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-18 Mo…

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Economics: A very nice theory of why an inflation that is zero-sum with respect to the real household budget is, nevertheless, a source of great anxiety. Things that you purchase that you cannot adjust without a difficult conversation with your spouse have gone up in price, and you rationally fear that they may go up in price even more. And you cannot control whether that will happen, and that is a great source of anxiety:

Dan Davies: theories of the vibes:
Dan Davies - “Back of Mind”
theories of the vibes
A reader asked a while back about what might be said about the current climate of “vibecession” in the USA. (Before continuing, I note a favoured old joke that on album covers of the 50s, a credit of “Vibes” means “Almost certainly the best musician on the album”, while in the 90s it means “Literally did nothing…
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an hour ago · 3 likes · 10 comments · Dan Davies
‘everything’s fantastic and nobody’s happy…. What’s bad about economic bad times for consumers…. 2. Lack of control or agency over own economic life…. [That] is right in my wheelhouse…. The psychological sensation of not having control over your own life is really bad…. T..here’s a wedge between real household incomes, and the proportion of that income which the householder perceives as being under his or her control. Measured consumption doesn’t distinguish between goods and services that are experienced as a personal decision and exercise of purchasing power, and those that show up as yet another monthly bill that has to be paid…

Economics: And John Quiggin reminds me of something I should have said in my <braddelong.substack.com/p/morning-notes…>:

John Quiggin: ‘Lost in all this <substack.com/@jquiggin/note/c-45697388> is the point that there is no good case for a 2 per cent inflation target, rather than 4. As far as I can tell, the strongest case is a meta-argument about expectations about the Fed. “Sure, a 4 per cent target would make sense, but if we changed now, the Fed would lose credibility”. That rules out raising the target when inflation is already at or above 4 per cent. And no central bank is going to set a new target above the current rate (the idea of less than 2 per cent inflation was inconceivable when NZ set this target, precisely as the lowest rate that might be sustained. So, we are stuck with 2 per cent and the prospect of periodic returns to the ZLB until something goes catastrophically wrong.
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Public Reason: A very, very nice piece indeed from Dan Drezner, from which I want to quote extensively. I believe that Drezner has Taibbi, Wolff, and Greenwald’s numbers. I would quibble, however, in that I do not think they are stopped clocks. Stopped clocks are stopped—not making excuses for and rapidly moving toward their full joining-up with neofascism:

Dan Drezner: Horseshoes and Hand Grenades and Neoconservatives and Contrarians <danieldrezner.substack.com/p/horseshoes…>: ’Never follow a “thought leader” after they have been right once…. Public intellectuals… knew a little about a lot… excellent critics. Thought leaders… know one big thing…. They stick with it…. Hammers [that] see the world as nothing but nails…. When a thought leader is right once, it is human nature to believe that they have puzzled out some fundamental insight that will lead to even more insights in the future. We know from Tetlock, however, that… thought leaders being right about something big twice in a row is a highly unlikely outcome….
The Matt Taibbis, Glenn Greenwalds, and Naomi Wolfs of the world… already had their thought leader moment in the sun… 20 years ago when they opposed the war in Iraq…. They cannot believe that the neoconservatives who erred in 2003 are being invited to appear on MSNBC rather than facing trial in The Hague. And so as the neocons drifted leftward, the contrarian right seemed more appealing to them….
As contrarian thought leaders they are delighted to rebel against the elites welcoming neoconservatives into their fold… by arguing that mainstream Democrats are worse than the MAGA folks, that Trump is simply not as bad as reported, when in fact he has been that bad and would be even worse…. After being right on Iraq… they have been proven wrong on Trump in every possible way. But… it is probably easier to keep being wrong and well paid. Who knows, that clock might stop again in the future and they could be right again.
Or they will wonder, like Taibbi, how they got to where they are now…

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Neofascism: Ed Luce: Americans won’t be terrified into rejecting Trump <https://www.ft.com/content/5a119379-ae6e-4318-9897-942894780897>: ‘The way to win is to meet people’s anxieties on their own terms. It is the source of some concern that Biden has not yet found a way of doing that…. Both the following sentences are true: Trump is a mortal threat to the US republic; roughly half of the country does not believe that. It follows that Democrats need to find more compelling ways of asking people to vote for them…
Governance: Sean Casten: ‘As I told folks at my townhall <https://www.threads.net/@seantcasten/post/C1E_1s_uC_m> last night, there is a governing bipartisan bloc in Congress. The bloc that passed the CHIPs Act is ~the same as the one that voted not to default on our debt (& to expel Santos). It includes all Ds and ~100 Rs…. To pass bipartisan legislation in this Congress, we’d need a Speaker willing to do the will of the majority of the members. And neither McCarthy nor Johnson have demonstrated the leadership skills; they are puppets of their wingnut wing. Or we could just put Dems in the majority, so that the governing majority in the House was matched by a governing majority in the majority party. Whether that’s easier or harder than finding a single GOP House member capable of leadership remains an open question…
David French: ‘I completely understand the argument <https://www.threads.net/@davidfrenchjag/post/C1EAlxrOtwR> that Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment is undemocratic. I understand why people would be angry about that.But here’s a key constitutional point … The amendment is INTENTIONALLY anti-democratic. If the authors of the amendment trusted voters not to elect insurrectionists, they never would have drafted the amendment.This is a situation the amendment was designed for—when other guardrails failed, this amendment would still stand…
Economics: Mike Konczal: Supply-Side Expansion Has Driven the Decline in Inflation <https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Supply-Side-Expansion-Has-Driven-the-Decline-in-Inflation-202309.pdf>: ‘Scenarios of entrenched, higher inflation are behind us. The majority of disinflation has been driven by expanding supply…. For 123 core PCE items, I find 73 percent of all core items, and 66 percent of services, see prices falling with quantities increasing—a sign of expanding supply…. Around a third of items could be described as moving straight down…. Supply expansion driving disinflation is even more true when it comes to categories that historically have a strong relationship with demand in the economy. The disinflation we’re seeing is therefore broad and could continue…
Federal Reserve: Summary of Economic Projections December 13, 2023 <https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdf> & Summary of Economic Projections March 22, 2023 <https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20230322.pdf>…
Robert Driskill: Ken Rogoff and higher interest rates <https://braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-noted-for-2023-12-08-fr/comment/45213470: ‘Along with Brad’s critique, let me suggest people read a 2018 IMF working paper (Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits, P. Barrett, WP18/22, 2018) and Ball, Elmendorf, Mankiw, JMCB Nov 1998, “The Deficit Gamble,” and of course the CBO’s “The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook.” First, CBO predicts real interest rate on U.S. debt will average 1.1%—and reach only 1.4% in 2053—over the next thirty years. That’s alongside their prediction that debt/GDP ratio grows to 1.81 by thirty years from now. “The deficit gamble” and Barrett’s paper document that r<g on average over a century and more—by on average between 1% and 2%. This is evidence (or facts)—not confirmation bias—that lower rate environments are not an anomaly but a persistent feature, and that the CBO believes there is a continuing sufficient appetite for the burgeoning supply of US treasuries into the next few decades. Sure, there are risks—not imminent ones, I would argue—associated with our current projected fiscal policies, but also real costs to cutting government benefits over the next few decades. How about less “fiscal fearmongering” and more “watchful waiting?”…
Robert Armstrong Unhedged <https://www.ft.com/unhedged>: ‘Yesterday [December 14] the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4 per cent for the first time since July, as the market continues to process Wednesday’s pivot by the Federal Reserve. On the equity side, small-cap stocks continue to be the story: while the S&P 500 has shrugged, the Russell 2000 is up 6 per cent since Jay Powell started talking…
Steven Greenhouse: How Corporations Crush New Unions <https://newrepublic.com/article/177557/trader-joes-union-busting-bargaining-table-first-contract>: ‘Bargaining-table negotiations over a first contract are never easy, but now they’re becoming excruciatingly slow and difficult. For companies like Trader Joe’s, that’s the goal…
Neofascism: Noah Berlatsky: ‘Far right harassment in defense of fas[cism] is absolutely a thing on [SubStack] here. it’s harder to organize dogpiles because of the architecture, but not impossible, and if you poke the fascists by saying, “Nazis on the platform is bad” people will in fact target you… Scott Aaron Rogers: ‘On one hand, I’ve never had more engagement. On the other hand, it’s all Nazis… Toby Epstein: ‘You mean saying that having Nazi’s anywhere in this country, especially here, is bad gets one into trouble. Ahh,.. Joe Berger: ‘So proud! I got my very first swastika sent to me today on here! Even better, they told me they hope I have a heart attack. The enshitification is a real thing…
Surgei Guriev: ‘Trump could not achieve <https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/could-trump-be-a-dictator> in the United States… what Orbán has achieved in Hungary, at least not nearly as quickly. But that is no reason for complacency. No one thought that the European Union could include an undemocratic regime until Orbán established one…. Mainstream politicians’ failure adequately to address the challenges of globalization, automation, and the rise of social media…. The number of populists in power around the world today is by far the highest in history, with most of them in the “right-wing authoritarian” camp. Trump’s victory is both dangerous and likely.

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James Bradford DeLong

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