noted

verybrieflynoted

weekendreading

: On Ryan Avent’s Meditations on Trumpism Pulling this from a year and a half ago out on its own so that I will more easily be able to find it …

: 2024-04-11 Th: Scratchpad: No, for the Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in June Would Not Be a Mistake... A scratchpad…Subscribe now Share Economics: I agree that a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve rate …

: Trying to Puzzle Through the Current Macro Situation For the first time since 2009-2010, when I (mistakenly) believed that Bernanke at the Fed & …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-09 Tu Fidel Castro needs to micromanage bread-baking; Arkansas sent into a state of emergency by solar …

: Large-Scale Transcontinental Societal Coöperation in the Classical-Age East-African Plains Ape Trying to arrest people’s attention by making them recognize how strange are the ways that we …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-06 Sa The rising possibility of not a soft landing but rather of no landing; data science & standard …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-02 Tu Faux & Chafkin on FTX a grift from the get-go; Levine is on the point of abandoning belief in …

: Sub-Turing BradBot: Finally Ready for Prime Time! Well, maybe not: the first two conversations with the 2024-03-29 version at …

: NOTES: ChatGPT4's Current Ability to "Reason", & What Follows from That... Time to actually try to create for myself an informed view on what the likely econo-societal effects …

: READING: Jo Walton (1998): "The Lurkers Support Me in Email" Perhaps the best poem written about the early internet. The main implicit point still holds true …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-28 Th Should I trust the “Economist” on a likely neofascist turn in South Africa?; major U.S. …

: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Information Technology in the Service of Society From 2001-09-03: How does this hold up today?… Subscribe now For perhaps 9000 years after the …

: Dealing with Global Warming Over the Next Fifty Years Is this going to be the dominant narrative thread of pretty much every history of 2025-2075 that …

: DRAFT: Time to Start Thinking About What to Teach in the Fall! I need a new framework for & I have a new title for Econ 135: “‘The Enlargement of …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-23 Sa That the post-FTX bankruptcy team has managed to recover a lot of the value Sam Bankman-Fried stole …

: NOTES: On Mid-21st Century Undergraduate Education, & Virgil's Prophecy of Jupiter: "Imperium sine Fine Dedi" How universal are the human values of freedom & rights, anyway? & can or should there be …

: READING: Brief Selections from John Maynard Keynes (1919): "The Economic Consequences of the Peace" Keynes as upper-class twit—but not stupid; never stupid…Subscribe now Share John …

: PODCAST: Hexapodia LVIII: Acemoglu & Johnson Should Have Written About Technologies as Labor-Complementing or Labor-Substituting In which Noah Smith & Brad DeLong wish Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson had written a very …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-18 Mo Trevor Jackson reviewing Harold James & Linda Yueh on crises; Martin Wolf thinking about Roger …

: A Note: Some Persistent Structures of Antiliberal Thought Something short I am not satisfied with, so I am hiding it behind the paywall, but I want to get …

: READING: Alan Ryan on Isaiah Berlin on Karl Marx Alan Ryan’s 1995 “Forward” to Isaiah Berlin’s: Karl Marx: His Life …

: PROJECT SYNDICATE: The Mystery of U.S. Interest Rates My March 2024 Project Syndicate column on the state of the macroeconomy and of macroeconomic policy. …

: DRAFT: Notes: What Is the Techno-Optimist Slant on “AI”? @Ferry Building, SF :: 2024-03-14 Th 18:00 PDT :: Reinvent Future :: Invite: “The time has …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-14 Th We aren’t growing more hands quickly; the Hamiltonian tradition in America; Nicholas …

: Having Neighbors Who Vote for Donald Trump Is Dangerous to Your Health America’s Republicans may not eat their young, but they definitely kill their elderly with the …

: On Færie-Stories—like Frank Herbert's "Dune"—Derived from Agrarian-Age Roots Dune is a great movie! & “Dune” is a great book! But—highly problematic. Even …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-09 Sa Dismal BREXIT results scorecard; Martin Wolf despairs at broken British economic growth; I may be …

: Nobody Expected Our Current Interest-Rate Configuration Nobody—well, very few people—here in the United States expected our current interest-rate …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-07 Th Mark Levine on Elon Musk’s latest derangement; passive investing opens opportunities for …

: Gunpowder-Empire Fiscal Legibility & State Development: Economic History/Political Economy Seminar Francisco Garfias & Emily A. Sellars: “Fiscal Legibility & State Development” :: …

: Do Not Spend too Much Time "Getting Good" at Dealing with Current AML GPT LLMs Nearly everything about what kinds of questions you should ask, and how you should frame them, is …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-03 Su It was not all that “hot” a PCE inflatIon number!; the FT Editorial Board is dismayed …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-01 Fr The funeral of Navalny; Asimov's laws of robotics on Mystery Hype AI Theater 3000; Very Briefly …

: Fear of a Black Pope! Somebodies think Sundar Pichai should be fired from his job as CEO of Google because of Gemini? …

: What To Do About the Dependence of the Form Progress Takes on Power?: Quick Takes on Acemoglu & Johnson's "Power & Progress" Janeway, Smith, Farrell, & DeLong all take their shots…Subscribe now Give a gift …

: Affirmative Action: A Primer, & A Finger Exercise In which I hoist my Woke Freak Flag, for the edification of the public…Subscribe now Start …

: A Note: What Is "Management" Anyway? As something different from hierarchical command-and-control, bureaucratic …

: Should I Be Running a Mail Answers Column? Matt Yglesias runs a mailbag; should I be doing so?Share Subscribe now And he is revising its …

: Were We Expelled from Egalitarian Eden Not by the Pomegranate, But by the Plough and the Ox? Perhaps... Portable tools, farmstead implements, domesticated animals, serfdom, & slavery—with …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-25 Su Branko Milanovich on visions of inequality; shifting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, are …

: Noting the Appearance of Chris Dixon's Book "Read, Write, Own": Am I Still Allowed to Believe in Web3? Or will I only be putting yet another “kick me” sign on my back when I once again …

: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: A Woman Called "Toad" From November 4, 2021: Mnesarete of Thespis, Phryne Fisher, core curricula, cultural appropriation, …

: American Nationalism, Teddy-Roosevelt Style! A reading from August 20, 1907: the high tide of American Right-Progressive nationalism under the …

: "Slouching Towards Utopia": The Sean Illing "Grey Area" Interview We cover von Hayekian vs. Polanyian imperatives in the context of successive waves of Schumpeterian …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-20 Tu Thin gruel for those of us who really want to believe in web3; people know local crime is an …

: On Michael Mann's "On Wars" Reviewing a book whose strengths—all of its arresting & insightful individual …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-19 Mo The Biden-era compression of wage inequality; how Biden’s industrial policies are changing the …

: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Origins of Fascism in the Modern Pace of Econo-Social Creative Destruction Hoisted from 2022-05-09 Mo: “Modernity”, Marshall Berman, & Hannah Arendt: The …

: American Politics & Governance Is Actually in Relatively Good Shape In world comparative perspective, at least, it is. & yet Katie Porter seems to want to convince …

: Understanding Why so Many, Many False Starts in Sub-Saharan Africa... An unsuccessful piece, in which I largely fail in my attempt to meditate on what might possibly be …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-14 We Angus Bylsma reviewing “Slouching Towards Utopia’; Dario Perkins reminds us that this is …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: 2024-02-12 Mo Ann Harrison with evidence on capital now a substitute for labor; MOAR New York Times reporters who …

: Paul Schmelzing Is Coming to Berkeley to Talk About Interest Rates since 1310! 2024-02-12 Mo 14:00 PST: Evans Hall 639. What fascinates me: the puzzles of the relationship of …

: People Should Not Prioritize What They Think Are "Vibes" Over Actual Data: The Economic Situation Really Is—Relative to All Other Years since 2000—Excellent A follow-up to Hexapodia LVII: “The ‘Vibecession’ Is Losing Its Vibe”. In …

: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: DeLong: "The Economist as...?: The Public Square & Economics" In which I defend economists against Alasdair MacIntyre, for we are the quintessential expression of …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-08 Th Starting to raise my estimate of the neutral rate of interest r; partisan polarization & …

: PODCAST: Hexapodia LVII: The "Vibecession" Is Losing Its Vibe Producer Confidence & Consumer Confidence (in the Economy), & Our Confidence (in Our …

: PROJECT SYNDICATE: What Is the Fed Thinking? Version published 2024-02-05 Mo …

: Education to Promote Public Reason in a Kinda-Sorta Free-ish Society What would I do if I were Hum-Soc Sci nationwide General Education Czar?…Subscribe now It is …

: NOTES: & so I Raise My Estimate of the Neutral Interest Rate r* by 0.01%-Point... Economics: And so I raise my estimate of the neutral interest rate r* by 0.01%-point. Payroll …

: Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 6 :: Post-1870 Technological Acceleration The slides from the sixth lecture of my first post-big book excursion through the economic history …

: The True Shape of America's Debt & Deficit "Burdens" A teaser: I am writing a piece for the Milken Review on the true shape of America’s debt & …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-02 Fr A low-inflation boomtime economy at cruising speed; “spatial computing” enthusiast Brian …

: Somewhat Alarmed at the Federal Reserve's Standing Pat on January 31, 2024... A first draft of a column for Project Syndicate; the economy appears to be at cruising speed: full …

: NOTES: Thumbs-Up on "Spatial Computing" as Entertainment, Thumbs-Down on Neofascists Distributing Taylor Swift AI-Porn, & Thumbs-Down on the Bloomberg Editorial Board for Word-Salad Noting: John Gruber’s review of Apple visionPro, the latest Elon Musk-caused Twitter meltdown, …

: Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 5 :: Post-1870 Globalization The slides from the fifth lecture of my first post-big book excursion through the economic history …

: Greedy Jobs, Reproductive & Human-Capital Biological Clocks, & Men Who Do Not See What Is in Front of Their Faces A short note inspired by reading Virginia Postrel’s “Three Basic Facts That Affect …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-29 Mo Not all—not most—economists failed to understand the fanlike potential distribution of …

: REVIEW: Harold James: “Seven Crashes: The Economic Crises that Shaped Globalization” A review I wrote for H-Diplo <networks.h-net.org/h-diplo>…Subscribe now Share “A …

: Yes: FTX Was Really Bankrupt. And the Standard Excuses Are as Invalid as They Typically Are The standard excuses made by flacks for bankrupt financiers have long been three: (1) we were …

: REVIEW: Patricia Crone: Pre-Industrial Societies Why I am still using a quarter century-old book to orient my students as to what pre-industrial …

: Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 4 :: The Demographic Transition The slides from the fourth lecture of my first post-big book excursion through the economic history …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-25 Th Gonzo “last mile still to come” inflation-reduction reports & takes demonstrate zero …

: Commenting Yet Again on Martin Wolf: "The Bitter Lessons of BREXIT" Our text yet again this morning comes from the highly estimable Martin Wolf: Share Martin Wolf: The …

: Commenting on Martin Wolf: "The World Economy’s Story Remains One of Integration" As Martin Wolf observes <https://www.ft.com/content/e167eca5-e1e7-4927-abb5-d87dfb699cf3>, the …

: Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 3 :: Breaking Out of Agrarian-Age Near-Stagnation The slides from the third lecture of my first post-big book excursion through the economic history …

: The Onrushing Wave of the Infotech Revolution An early DRAFT of a piece I did for a 2024 look-ahead for Nikkei in Japan…Subscribe now Thank …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-21 Su The normalization of consumer sentiment continues; Looking back at Silicon Valley …

: PODCAST: Hexapodia LVI: Economic Development: Oks & Williams, Rodrik & Stiglitz Subscribe now & a start-of-the-semester academic-email-addresses-only paid-subscription sale: …

: Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 2 :: Agrarian-Age Societies The slides from the second lecture of my first post-big book excursion through the economic history …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-17 We Remarkably bad manufacturing-conditions survey from New York; Mohamed El-Erian thinks we are a mile …

: Proposals for Tuning the Latest—Algorithmic—Caterwauling Accompaniment to the Zombie Dance of Human Society As we enter the mode of production of the algorithm: of the General-Purpose Transformer, of Large …

: Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 1 :: Introduction bCOURSES HOME PAGE: <https://bcourses.berkeley.edu/courses/1531168/> Course …

: Martin Luther King, Jr.: At Bishop Charles Mason Temple of the Church of God in Christ, Memphis, Tennessee, March 18, 1968 He was assassinated in Memphis on April 4, 1968: “Whenever you are engaged in work that serves …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-14 Su Drivers of r* across ten countries;Bay Area left-techno-utopianism incarnate in the form of the …

: Pre-Spring Vacation Readings for: Econ 210a: Introduction to Economic History My course this semester for first-year Economics Ph.D. graduate students…Subscribe now Leave …

: Schedule & Readings for: Econ 115: The World Economy in the 20th Century I am—again—taking over Barry Eichengreen’s large undergraduate course this spring, …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-12 Fr Seth Lloyd on free will, complexity, & unpredictability; the demographic transition & the …

: READING: Raymond Aron (1965): Qui Perd Gagne? From “Le Figaro”, February 16, 1965 :: the first appearance in print of …

: Thinking Probabilistically; Thinking Pragmatically Review of: Robert Rubin: The Yellow Pad: Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World…Subscribe now …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-08 Mo Another lost decade for Sub-Saharan Africa; China & Carolina shocks; David Brooks heists ideas …

: Why Is There No Jacquerie in "Pride & Prejudice"? One would think that the situation of Mr. Bennet, Mr. Darcy, & Lizzie Bennet in Pride & …

: Bill Ackman: A Four-Thousand Word Tweet & then there are six-hundred more words in his next tweet…Subscribe now How it begins: …

: READING: My Ancestor Samuel Sewall (1700): "The Selling of Joseph: A Memorial" Forasmuch as Liberty is in real value next unto Life : None ought to part with it themselves, or …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-05 Fr Analytic functions & the miraculous effectiveness of Taylor series; Mike Konczal on how the …

: Tim Duy of SGH Macro Advisors Also Thinks the Fed Is Behind the Curve on Easing The December employment report shows, to me at least, no signs that it is not time to get the band …

: How Much of an Information-Technological Revolution Is Now on Our Doorstep? A piece I wrote for Nikkei <https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOCD2536V0V21C23A2000000/>, …

: ChatGPT4: Tablets of Power: The Dual Roles of Literacy in Ashurbanipal’s Assyria I wanted a short, punchy, & informative article on the role played by writing & literacy in …

: Gentry, Culture, & the "Left Behind" Places Noodling around what I fear are the most important issues in regional development policy today, at …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-01-03 We Travel times in 1914; Biden’s industrial policy; very briefly noted; Arpit Gupta on the …

: Masters of Blancmange Baking at the "New York Times" Inflation month-by-month since the start of 2021:Subscribe now A headline “Inflation Is …

: READING: January 1, 1863: Abraham Lincoln: A Proclamation Emancipation, as a “fit and necessary war measure for suppressing… [the] …

: Is America Today Really No More Unequal Economic Class-Wise than It Was in 1960? America is much more unequal, class-wise! (Race-wise & gender-wise it is less unequal; but …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-29 Sa Journamalistic grifting machines; Greg Clark vs. institutionalist theories of economic history; …

: Now Is This Winter of Our Crypto Discontent Turned to Glorious Summer by... Niall Ferguson? I confess that Niall Ferguson as the sole remaining intellectual defender of crypto was not what I …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-26 Tu Starting to pack a SubStack-exit parachute; are the Magnificent Seven productivity, monopoly, or …

: New Year 2024 Paid Subscription Sale! …but they will be behind the paywall. So, if you want a chance to read them more cheaply: Get 50% …

: Cyrus the Persian, Anointed of the LORD, & the Making of the Bible Something I dearly want to know: how & why was a collection of ritual, religious, political, and …

: An Appreciation of: Ernst Gellner: "Plough, Sword, & Book: The Structure of Human History" Not modes of production alone, but modes of cognition and coërcion as well in the context of a …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-23 Sa Pre (and post-!) fax machine technology transfer is really hard!; SubStack’s bosses see an …

: The Fed’s Remarkable Feat The published column over at Project Syndicate: …

: HOISTED FROM THE EGYPTIAN MIDDLE KINGDOM: Duau-Khety: Satire of the Trades Duau Khety (-1950): Satire of the Trades. Itjtawy. …

: The Fed Is Now Behind the Curve in Beginning the Easing Phase of Its Cycle: Six-Month PCE Inflation at Target: 1.9% per Year I confess I do not see a valid argument against an 0.5%-point interest-rate cut at the next Fed …

: The Expectations Debate Again: Why I Think That It Is Likely We Would Still Have an Inflation Problem If Jay Powell Had Not Acted in 2022 It is not just that keeping interest rates low would have in all likelihood led to an overheated …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-20 We Inflation & vibecession; no good case for the 2% per year inflation target; never believe a …

: Morning Notes on December 19, 2023 on the Inflation Debate Largely a clarification-of-thought exercise for my own benefit…Subscribe now With adaptive …

: Are There Any Full Turing-Class Entities in the House? Reasoning about ancien régime French aristocrat family relationships, House-of-Orléans edition. No. …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-18 Mo GPT vs. bureaucracy; EMH fanatics lose the plot; Binyamin Netanyahu is not a victim here; a …

: DRAFT: The Federal Reserve Deserves Respect! An early draft of a column for Project Syndicate, triggered by reading Mohamed El-Erian’s …

: READING: Cyrus: Cylinder Livius.org: Cyrus Cylinder Translation …

: Musings on Manufacturing's Delaborization, & Development Strategy for the Next Two Generations We can see approaching us the end of the export manufacturing-based Royal Road to successful …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-15 Fr Backups & robustness; firepower; smart glasses; Ballad of Lucy Gray Baird; Andromeda Galaxy; …

: HOISTED FROM THE INTERNET OF LONG AGO: Cosma Shalizi (2010): The Singularity in Our Past Light-Cone <http://bactra.org/weblog/699.html> Subscribe now Share The Singularity has happened; we call …

: I Was on "Team Transitory": My Historical Perspective Made Me Smarter Preliminary thoughts provoked by reading Larry Summers about inflation & soft landings, and …

: Where Asymptote?: Trying to Think About GPT-LLM-ML GPT-LLM-ML: Smart observations from Matt Friedman on Ben Thompson’s StraTECHery podcast: Nat …

: REPOSTED: SubStackers Against Nazis I agree with this 100%. The proper number of Nazi-propagandist SubStacks is ZERO. Where, exactly, …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-13 We Market economies lack sufficient information-transmission bandwidth (& so does everything else); …

: TEACHING NOTE: E.P. Thompson & "The Making of the English Working Class" Subscribe now I ran across a very nice appreciation of English Marxist historian E.P. Thompson by …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-09 Sa Why is the very sharp Ken Rogoff so sure higher interest rates are here to stay?; the CRISPR …

: PODCAST: Hexapodia LV: The Forthcoming Successful Development of the Asia Circle, & Dehyperglobalization Subscribe now Share Key Insights:Finally, at long last, over the next two generations the tide is …

: Soft Landing Touchdown: The Macro Sitch as of the Start of December 2023 Should I postpone my more-or-less monthly look at the state of the macroeconomy until next week, …

: No: I Do Not Grasp the Five Dimensions of the Societal Impacts of Forthcoming GPT-LLM-ML Technologies I do not, in spite of all of Ezra Klein’s & others’ attempts to help me, understand …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-03 Su Dan Wang & Derek Thompson on how china’s economic miracle went off the rails; May 2024 Fed …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-01 Fr Longer-run fundamentals continuing to push r* downward; the late-1800s arrival of militarized social …

: Grasping Reality a Quarter of the Way Through the 2000s The Arc of HistoryGrokking the Long-Run Human History of the Agrarian Age:Towards an Understanding …

: Elon Musk Today Claims Wealth Equal to 2.5 Million Times Median Household Income; His Predecessor Daniel Ludwig in 1982 Claimed Only 85 Thousand Times Subscribe now Venkatesh Rao writes the Ribbonfarm Studio SubStack: Ribbonfarm StudioRibbonfarm …

: Successful Future Humanities Programs Will Be Those That Provide High Literacy & Deep Numeracy To get through the crisis, humanities programs should focus on equipping students to understand and …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-28 Tu Of course you slow your descent rate on final approach if you are trying for a soft landing; Sean …

: NOTE TO SELF: Interesting Economic-History Job-Market Papers Subscribe now Interesting Economic History Job-Market Papers:Miriam Venturini: A sixth-year Ph.D. …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-24 Fr The reality of Bayesian-distribution tails; Britain’s George Osborne imagines that not …

: Background: The OpenAI Coup: Mistaking the Deployment of a Hallucinatory Stochastic-Part ChatBot for the Trump of Doom Henry Farrell: What OpenAI shares with Scientology: ‘The back-story to all of this is actually much …

: Are Index Funds Making the Economy Less Fair? By J. Bradford DeLong Sept. 12, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET TAMING THE STREET: The Old Guard, the New Deal, …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-19 Su Memories of economic policymaking during the Carter administration; from goods-focused engineering …

: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Why you should be happy about inflation and worried about something else, top economist Brad DeLong says Subscribe now How could high inflation possibly be good? Not only are you paying more for stuff than …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-17 Fr Economic effects of Richard M. Nixon; Chat-GPT nibbles at freelancers’ jobs; Moyn & McManus see …

: READING: Istvan Hont: How to Write Brilliant Essays Via Adam Tooze Chartbook ChartbookTop Links 312 The world economy's Wile E. Coyote moment, the …

: Notes for DeLong, Forbes, & Kohn "Probing for Full Employment" Panel Rethinking Full Employment 67th Economic ConferenceFederal Reserve Bank of …

: If You Are Just on the "National Review" Mailing List, This Is the Kind of Thing It Sends You Now you can say that there is a wall between National Review’s advertising, editorial, and …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-15 We Dan Drezner notes that Tom Friedman finally has more than one non-embarrassing column in a row; the …

: Yesterday Was the Release Date for Martha Wells's New MurderBot Novel, "System Collapse" Wells, Martha. 2023. System Collapse. The Murderbot Diaries, Book 7. New York: Tordotcom Publishing. …

: DRAFT: The Societal Logic of “Modes of Production” I: From Feudal-Agrarian to Applied-Science Society Why, with our enormous productive capabilities, have we humans failed to make a more utopian world? …

: DRAFT: Why Do Homeowners Tend to Think They Deserve Strong Housing-Price Appreciation? People buy assets and create assets in the hope that they will go up in value. Thus expectations of …

: DRAFT: Why the New and Sharp Disjunction Between the State of the Economy & Consumer Sentiment? This was supposed to be my Project Syndicate column for November. But I could never get it into any …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-11 Sa Sub-Turing BradBot’s presentation-of-self; John Gruber on spatial video in the Apple …

: The Hinge of Human History: 1870 The most important fact to grasp about the world economy of 1870 is that the economy then belonged …

: Sub-Turing BradBot I :: Chat-GPT-4-Turbo It is at: <https://chat.openai.com/g/g-seAR7Blrf-sub-turing-bradbot-i> Ask it questions about …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-09 Th The late-fall California Office; Tim Brook on the Little Ice Age & the fall of the Ming; very …

: PROJECT SYNDICATE: The Attention Economy Goes to Court How does human attention work, and who should have the right to capture it, direct it, and harvest …

: When Is It a Depression & Not a Rolling Sectoral Readjustment Rotation? Noah Smith has views, views I disagree with, on what are the macroeconomic lessons from the recent …

: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: BioCultural Human Evolution & Its Implications for History & Society If I do write my “Enlarging the Bounds of the Human Empire…” …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-05 Su Gary Marcus on the difference between remote-assist driving & self-driving; the California …

: This Really Is What a Macroeconomic Soft Landing Would Look Like Justin Wolfers on Threads is doing a very good job of summarizing key economic reports these days: …

: It Is Not Properly Called "Technofeudalism". But What Is It? It is not technofeudalism, but what is it? Subscribe now Share What does it say about market …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-03 Fr The XReal Air as spatial computing at 1/10 the cost of the Vision Pro; Matthew Klein fears the Fed …

: A Useful & Human Grand Narrative for the 21st Century Subscribe now Share What is a useful & human grand narrative for us to adopt for the remainder …

: Chat-GPT as Clever Hans Once Again Subscribe now Share Something that you can find on the internet and stitch together from three …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-31 Tu Inheritance of land & cattle & the entrenchment of patriarchy; is Judith Butler insane or …

: DRAFT: Diana Henriques: Taming the Street "Unscrupulous money changers stand indicted.... Faced by failure of credit they... propose... …

: Feminist Impulses Subscribe now Abigail Smith AdamsIn 1764 in Britain’s Massachusetts colony Abigail Smith was 20, and …

: Marco Becht Presents: Voice Through Divestment In-person in 597 Evans & by zoom at …

: POSSIBLE COURSE UNIT: High Patriarchy & the History of Underdevelopment Should I add this “sociobiology” unit to my classes for next semester? I oscillate …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-28 Sa The beat-sweetener crowd eats the New York Times entire; Katie Martin waits for some rough slouching …

: READING: F.T. Marinetti: Futurist Manifesto An awful lot of what was to lead to the eager embrace of death that was WWI and to later become …

: DRAFT CLARIFICATION OF THOUGHT: Historical "Effective" Male & Female Human Population Sizes, & What They Mean Joseph Henrich writes “fathers” & “mothers” where he should write …

: BOOK SUMMARY: Manville & Ober: "The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives" Manville, Brook, & Josiah Ober. 2023. The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives. Princeton: …

: REVIEW: Manville & Ober: "The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives" Manville, Brook, & Josiah Ober. 2023. The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives. Princeton: …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-25 We Feigin on Kosygin’s failure; Wolf on China’s political likely middle-income trap; Klein …

: What Does Hornbeck & Logan's $1.44 Billion "Aggregate Economic Gain" from Emancipation Really Mean? For those who won’t read the underlying paper (which you should!), Matthew Yglesias Slow …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-23 Mo The fragility of agrarian sciences of domination, Elon Musk’s disgusting algorithm, The …

: Recent on SubStack NOTES: Central Country: Ex-Premier Li Keqiang does not fall out a window, or be taken by the arms by …

: In Which I Direct You to Unfinished Piece on Techno-Optimism by John Quiggin, & a Semi-Finished Piece by Noah Smith Subscribe now Share I see that John Quiggin is starting an analysis of Marc Andreesen’s …

: NOTES ON: Christopher J. Berry: The Idea of Commercial Society in the Scottish Enlightenment Berry, Christopher J. 2013. The Idea of Commercial Society in the Scottish Enlightenment. Edinburgh: …

: Engels & Marx as Epigones of Adam Smith the Historical-Materialist Stage Theorist Subscribe now Marx and Engels—or, perhaps, Engels and Marx, to the extent that the heart of …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-19 Th Mysteries of the Treasury risk premium, LLMs fail at doing math, Andreesen’s techno-optimist …

: What Is the Ten-Year Real Rate Going to Be? II: Peering at the Future Fundamentals of the Flow-of-Funds Supply-Demand Balance What are the odds that bond rates are going to return to the 2010s normal? Low, although at least …

: READING: Du Fu: Ballad of the Army Wagons Squeals from war horses, rumbling carts, With quivers and bows at their waists, the men march, As …

: What Is the Ten-Year Real Rate Going to Be? I: How We Got Here What are the odds that bond rates are going to return to the 2010s normal? Low. But some …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-15 Su Unfair cancellation vs, legitimate consequences of speech; co-Speakership; morons who used to put up …

: I Do Not Believe There Are Any Just Wars to Be Waged in the Middle East Subscribe now The American army took six months to prepare, and then a month and a half to fight, …

: READING: On Kevin Phillips in 1968; by Garry Wills, from his "Nixon Agonistes: The Crisis of the Self-Made Man" Wills, Garry. 1970. Nixon Agonistes: The Crisis of the Self-Made Man. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. …

: Nvidia’s Moment Subscribe now Share Up through the beginning of Nvidia’s fiscal year 2023, revenue had grown …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2023-08-28 Mo Nvidia’s moment; Assyrian dog pack; hype & reality in contemporary GPT-LLM-ML; very …

: DRAFT: How Can We Deal wiþ Zombie Neoliberal Ideas? Does it require a wooden stake, or fire, to make it so þt they do not keep coming back …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2023-08-25 Fr Is þe Federal Reserve discussing wheþer to shift its target?; is post-plague …

: DRAFT: Þe Plague Years Have Made Me More Optimistic About þe Future of þe Global Economy Remembering last year [CORRECTED] at Jackson Lake Lodge: Global worthies’ longing to pull …

: Þe Short Room... John Fernald & Huiyu Li: The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output: Jh2022 …

: Are at Least Some of Us About to Replace "Programming" wiþ "Invocation"? The SubTuringBradBot project; should I be thinking about what the right LLM “Grimoire” …

: Understanding þe Current Stance of U.S. Monetary Policy Here is the Ten-Year US Treasury bond over the past twenty years—the nominal interest rate, the real …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-23 We …forecast, on teaching macro, on macro theory, & on þe history of macro …

: Macroeconomic Outlook Basecamp Page Macroeconomic Outlook Basecamp Page<https://braddelong.substack.com/s/macro-outlook>

: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Jupyter Notebook Programming Dos and Don'ts Python 𝜈B programmer Gandalf the Grey confronting an unexpected behavior from the balrog.pdf Pandas …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-21 Mo MUST-READ: China’s Borrowing þe Entrepreneurial Class of Hong Kong (& Taiwan!) as a …

: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Þe Barrington Moore Problematic & Its Discontents The Barrington Moore Problematic and Its DiscontentsSubscribe now John Stuart Mill was perhaps the …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-16 We …& valuation-ratio explanations; & readings & notes…Subscribe now MUST-READ: Þis Seems …

: READING: Eric Hobsbawm in 1962 on þe "Dual Revolution", 1789-1848 …a more clearsighted Marxist he would have put it differently—he would have seen a …

: Þe “lumpenproletariat”, þe “dangerous class”, þe “social scum” of þe 1800s Subscribe now In some ways, Karl Marx was very much a normal Victorian Gentleman: The Communist …

: PODCAST: Hexapodia LI: Begun, Þe Attack on Biden Industrial Policy Has! Subscribe now Share Key Insights:Critics: Cato-style libertarians, including AEI’s Michael …

: Beveridge Curve Slope Missing in Action... Subscribe now As of March 2023, the bet that the rapid return to full employment coming out of the …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-14 Mo …10-Year Treasuries—real rates & nominal rates—are still really low compared to þe 1980s; Best …

: FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Golden Age of Weblogging: 2003-08-10, -11, -12, & -13 Worth Highlighting:Already as of mid-2003 I appear to have been convinced that “the Singularity is …

: FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Thrown Against þe Wall on þe Proto-Weblog in November-December 1996... December 1996:Published:“Review of Richard Vedder and Lowell Gallaway, Out of …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-11 Fr …Smith, & Breunig on socio-economic anxiety, long-term value investing, China’s middle-income trap, …

: Hexapodia L: Why Is Such a Good Economy Seen as Bad? Subscribe now Share Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality Key Insights:Brad has a new …

: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Six Episodes of U.S. Inflation Above 5%/Year in þe 1900s Subscribe now I think that the answer to the big question is clear: 1947 and 1951 look like much …

: Viewing Sparta, & Ancient Society More Generally …disgust! But we can also look on the character of the élite’s relationships within itself all the …

: FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Productivity Growth Optimism, & Oþer Topics In two days I cover a variety of topics, ranging from the trends and implications of productivity …

: I Seem to Have Missed þe 25th Anniversary of My Weblog At any rate, I threw this, unfinished, up on the web on November 11, 1996: Subscribe now Share World …

: Public-Sphere Networks & Þe SubStack Bosses' Latest Pratfall-Flirtation Subscribe now Nazi-adjacent genocidaire Richard Hanania, who used to call—under the cloak of …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-07 Mo … Biden’s anti-Global Warming industrial policy after one year; & Scialabba, Burke, …

: PROJECT SYNDICATE: Investment Theory in Practice …bankrupt in all likelihood, wiþ a small chance of becoming a plutocrat…Investment Theory in …

: READING: Lissauer (1914): "Þe Hymn of Hate Against ENGLAND"; & Zweig: "The World of Yesterday" Ernst Lissauer (1914): The Hymn of Hate:French and Russian, they matter not, A blow for a …

: NOTE TO SELF: I Seem to Have Brushed by Richard Hanania Twice “Rising right-wing commentator turns out to be Nazi-KKK adjacent who wants to sterilize Black …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-05 Sa …Martin Wolf on shifts, shocks, & fragilities, & Klein, Bouie, & Beauchamp on a 4% …

: PODCAST: Vital Center: Reflections on "Slouching Towards Utopia" Slouching Towards Utopia: <http://bit.ly/3pP3Krk> Vital Center Podcast Episode: …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-02 We …attempting to use history, þe importance of aiming for a high-pressure economy, using titanium, …

: VIRTUAL OFFICE HOURS: Þe Revolutions of 1848, "Controlling þe Gold", Overthrowing Governments, & þe Rothschild Dynasty Someone trying to make their way through Marx’s Capital with the assistance(?) of David …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-08-01 Mo …middle-class college-admission anxiety, élite Chinese Communist Party politics, & …

: REVIEW: Martin Turkis on "Slouching Towards Utopia" J. Bradford DeLong. Slouching Towards Utopia. New York, NY: Basic Books, 2022. ISBN 9780465019595. …

: REVIEW: Anthony Annett: A New Social Democracy? A New Social Democracy?Brad DeLong’s economic history of the twentieth century Subscribe now By …

: DRAFT: Why Have Superhigh Long-Run Stock Returns in America Persisted? Subscribe now Suppose that you had started in January 1871 and had invested your wealth in the stock …

: Really: Þere Are Real Nazis Here So it is not just Ron DeSantis’s campaign, but RFK Jr.’s campaign whose staff is full of …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-28 Fr …unsustainable businesses, & Maximum Canada’s bright future…Start writing …

: Should We Read Steven Pressfield's "Gates of Fire"? Get 50% off for 1 year Picking a bone: I believe I have a bone to pick with the extremely sharp and …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-25 Tu …cultural-influencing organization raþer þan setting money on fire for þe LULZ, …

: You Are Interacting wiþ a GPT LLM Having a Conversation wiþ You in Precisely þe Same Sense Þt You Have a Relationship wiþ a Harvard University Þt Likes, & Is Grateful to You …a surface simulacrum…Subscribe now I cannot underscore the importance of recognizing …

: Þe "Herbert Hoover" Passages from "Slouching Towards Utopia" …possibly John Maynard Keynes…Subscribe now J. Bradford DeLong: Slouching Towards …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-23 Su MUST-READ: The Puzzle—Short Run & Long Run—of Reviving China’s Economy:Subscribe now Noah Smith …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-20 Th …immigration & bank failures, & ProPublica’s desperate hopes to go off the record…Share …

: READING: "Turkestan" & "Aristoi" Chen Tao: Turkestan: Thinking only of their vow That they would crush the Tartars— On the desert, …

: One of My Favorite Pieces from "Slouching Towards Utopia" From Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century …

: Þe "Semiconductor" Section from "Slouching Towards Utopia" Subscribe now An excerpt from Slouching Towards Utopia <http://bit.ly/3pP3Krk> Share I HAVE …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-16 Su …rubber meeting road, Wachtel-Lipton seriously went ride-or-die for Old Twitter, & Howes on þe …

: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES (2015): Black Swans Roosting in Trees on Dunsinane Hill Blogging “Black Swans” Is the Wrong Way to Think About It: “Great Birnam Wood to High …

: Passing 20,000 Total Subscribers Milestone Sale! Redeem sometime in the next ten days: Get 33% off for 1 year

: "Coercive" States, & Judging Among þe Nations Subscribe now Alice Evans’s sentence is “States were often coercive, so should not be celebrated as …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-13 Th …why conservative authoritarians talk so much like liberal freedom-valuers, & Benjamin …

: Does Thunder Have a Red Beard? …confusion vis the Argument from Pagan Theology…Mjöllnir the Mighty, Mauler of Miscreants, make …

: The Modern World Reconceived <https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2023/05/montage-interpreting-politics> Interpreting politics …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-10 Mo Three on “emergence”; plus Dan Davies on “greedflation”; Antarctic sea ice; …

: Teaser for Tomorrow's ACE Conference Keynote: Title: "Þe 20th Century" What is special about þe history of þ 20th century? & what does þt specialness mean for þe role …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-07-08 Sa Contra Yglesias, Bidenomics is more than just Keynesian full-employment; þe astonishing negative …

: Hexapodia XLIX: We Cannot Tell in Advance Which Technologies Are Labor-Augmenting & Which Are Labor-Replacing Listen now (45 min) | Back After a Long Spring Hiatus; Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the …

: Did Anyone on DeSantis's Campaign Actually Watch "American Psycho" (or "Wolf of Wall Street"? I Am Afraid þe Answer Is "Yes" Cravenly pandering to the psychotic creep vote…

: & þe Paperback of "Slouching Towards Utopia" Is Out in the UK! US paperback coming later in the fall…

: BRIEFLY NOTED: 2023-07-05 We LSMLGPTs are not þe singularity; 20,000 SubStack subscribers!; Jean Tirole on spheres of activity …

: My SubStack Now Has More Readers þan þe Previous Weblog Ever Did Score one for Chris & Hamish

: Interest-Rate Increases Have Not Materially Cooled Housing Construction!?!? Þe macroeconomic-analysis picture is strange; þe going has gotten weird…

: Ensorcelled by þe Devil of Malthus Yes, I do think “Þe Enlarging of þe Bounds of Human Empire: A History of Economic …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: 2023-07-01 Sa Coming homework apocalypse; southeast Asia; Albert & Carroll on quantum, Boltzmann, & þe …

: What I Wish I Had Said at: Reinvent: A Meeting of þe Minds on þe Positive Possibilities of Gen AI Þis is, of course, five times as long as what I could have possibly fit into my time slot…

: NOTE TO SELF: Optimal Ex-Post Stock-Market Leverage RA Yekwang Hwang reports with some updated numbers: don’t you dare borrow more þan 60% of your …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: 2023-06-28 We Haldane on the beneficial manufacturing-subsidy arms race; Chetty on social capital & economic …

: READING: Erich Auerbach: "Mimesis": from Sicharius & Chramnesindus Even in the cultural sphere, there was a sharp decline if not a fall from the 300s to the 500s in …

: Time to Ride or Die for Larry Fink! The war against ESG, & for negative externalities and self-interest wrongly understood…

: American Upper Middle-Class Existence & Its "Discontents[?]" Emily Stewart has written a very interesting piece; but it seems to me to miss a lot of what is …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: 2023-06-25 Su Taking offense inappropriately in academia; Palmer Luckey on Apple Vision Pro; Allegory of Good …

: Yes, Adriana Kugler Would Make a Very Good Federal Reserve Governor We have a letter…

: I Did Not Have February 1917 on My 2023 Bingo Card... History May Be ON ÞE MOVE Þis Morning…

: BRIEFLY NOTED: 2023-06-23 Fr Devereaux on þe historiography of þe “Fall of Rome”; Yglesias watches PodcastTechBros …

: PODCAST: “Hexapodia” is þe Key Insight! XLVIII: The "Late-Antiquity Pause" Listen now (74 min) | Back After a Long Spring Hiatus; Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the …

: SubStack Now Has a Referral Program... If you have friends you think might enjoy Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality, you can: (1) Share …

: Yes. Rome Did Fall Call it a “Dark Age” from 400 or so to 900 or so in In Britannia, Germania, and …

: Þe Zombie Dance of Human Society Changes Its Key Algorithm replacing global value-chain, which replaced mass-production, which replaced …

: What Is Right & What Is Wrong in "Slouching Towards Utopia": Venkatesh Rao's View About once a month þese days I find another really good review of my “Slouching Towards …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-20 Tu Dan Davies on Warren Buffett as miseducator & value-subtracting business activities; þe end of …

: Theses on China, þe U.S., Political-Economic Systems, Global Value Chains, & þe Relationship My notes from a trans-Pacific interview…

: READING: Marc Andreessen (2014): Why Bitcoin Matters (excerpts) Do note þt Andreessen never says “blockchain” and always says …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-17 Sa Þe Hemingses of Monticello; Kara Swisher wants her Apple Vision Pro; þe Biden manufacturing boom; …

: How Did I Get too Online? Þe Story In þe end, it is þe responsibility of Paul Mende, Paul Krugman, & Jagdish Bhagwati

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-16 Fr Do not fear to say: ÞE ORANGE MAN IS REALLY BAD!!!!; Marco Rubio should simply leave; quantum …

: Note to Self: Producer Price Index Inflation Ended a Year Ago & now þe Federal Reserve has not “paused” but rather “skipped” an …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-14 We Þere is always anti-Clinton bullshit; Twitter’s clown car; Nelson on Apple Vision Pro; & I …

: Good Headline, Disappointing Core Inflation Numbers Þis Morning Þis is not quite a Goldilocks economy, but it is very, very close to being one.

: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Luigi Zingales: How to Resist Trump From 2016-11-18: I suspect þt þis is going to be evergreen in our Brave New World…

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-12 Mo The lies the authoritarian right tells itself; just friends friending around; transformer models and …

: Guns, Germs, Steel, Coal, Slavery, Seaborne Empires, Peninsulas, Mountain Ranges, Rainfall, & Chance: Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs, & Steel" After Twenty-Five Years I am strongly positive on “Guns, Germs, & Steel”; David Kedrosky is even more …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-10 Sa Mollick on chatting wiþ books rather þan reading them, to which I say it works well only for a …

: Policy for Inflation Control: Conte, Kane, & Litan's American Lyceum Project Garrett Jones, John Taylor, & Brad DeLong, moderated by Tim Kane; 2023-06-08 Th

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-08 Th Matuschak on Apple Vision Pro; þe political gender gap among þe young; Marques Brownlee on Apple …

: PROJECT SYNDICATE: Can America Escape Its Second Gilded Age? Published June 5, 2023: the pessimists will say that, differently from what we saw in the 1900-1930 …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-06 Tu Mind-blowing “Across þe Spiderverse”, Apple Vision Pro, augmented reality; supply-chain …

: Nepotism Special: Across þe Spider-Verse It is absolutely great…

: Trying to Think Through Our Crisis of Liberal Democracy, Part I Þis was supposed to be a review of Martin Wolf’s “The Crisis of Democratic …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-03 Sa Trying to make sense of a very strange debt-ceiling process; Martin Wolf sketches out our big …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-06-02 Fr Willis lands a good one on the “AI” moral panic; Nadella all-in on a no quite ready for …

: DRAFT: Bringing Our Unfortunate Second Gilded Age to an End? A draft of my next column for Project Syndicate…

: After þe Steampower Economy... A transcript of a clip from Ilari Mäkelä’s “On Humans” podcast…

: "Spiderman: Across þe Spiderverse" Is Hitting It Out of þe Park... Þe incredibly talented & dedicated team of which my first cousin Phil Lord is part have managed …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-31 We WTF happened wiþ the debt ceiling?; NVIDIA CEO; shilling for billionaire grifters rarely works; …

: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Keynes, Marx, Trotsky, Yglesias From 2007

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-29 Mo Giving guilty Trump voters permission to keep voting for Trump; managing the engagement of humans …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-28 Su Just before launch, all signs for “Spiderman: Across the Spiderverse” look very good …

: Þe Grift Is Very Strong in Ron DeSantis—and in Elon Musk & David Sacks Trying to prohibit people from having access to a central bank-backed BlockChain StableCoin because …

: Open letter to Jeffrey Sachs on the Russia-Ukraine war I am late to this…

: Down þe Id of þe Internet wiþ Stable Diffusion & Camera What can Generative ImageBot models tell us about the state of humanity—or at least of that part of …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-25 Th Who is the audience for Ayaan Ali Hirsi, & why most Biden & Harris stop exercising & …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-23 Tu The “hoping for acquisition” SV business model; Ian Cuttress on new silicon; immigration …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-21 Su Martin Wolf on the threat of neofascist kleptocracy; Sal Kahn on ChatBots as educational tool; Dobbs …

: Two Roberts Lucas: March 2009 & August 2009 The London Economist is promoting my piece from 2009 about Robert Lucas’s shifting rhetoric …

: DRAFT New Preface to "Concrete Economics: The Hamiltonian Approach to Economic Management & Policy" Stephen S. Cohen & J. Bradford DeLong

: Time for Another Book Project, a Follow-Up to "Slouching Towards Utopia"? Quite possibly. Here is an opening bid…

: CORRECTION: Debt Ceiling Josh Barro corrects me, and brings new information that I had long forgotten to the table…

: Debt Ceiling: What Are þe Fallback Threat Points in þe Case of "No Deal"? Walking down the strategy & scenario tree…

: Time to Remind All Slackers to Buy "Slouching Towards Utopia" I still do not think I have managed to cross 40,000 all-format all-language all-edition copies, and …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-17 We Does polishing regulation to raise your World Bank “doing business” score really bring …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-15 Mo The “Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer” is still far off; mushroom coffee; our …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-13 Sa Inflation not a serious problem; the raccoons of Chicago; Google’s “Project …

: Our Current Moderate Inflation Is Just Not a Truly Serious Problem Compare our current economic situation to any other possible economic situation we might have …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-11 Th Is Silicon Valley vc still a societal asset?; investment in the green energy transition; Nvidia has …

: First Republic Falls, & What Happens to Banking Next Not a big crisis, but also not a terribly well-handled one—and that is worrisome; not well-handled …

: Breaking Twitter Elon Musk really has turned Twitter into The Nazi Bar…

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-09 Tu non-linearities in the Phillips Curve, payrolls, and bond-market inflation expectations; the New …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-08 Mo Self-locating uncertainty; Tories break the British economy; slow-moving banking crisis; Wiesenthal …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-07 Su Youtube wants to send me to the nuthouse; no, we do not have a wage-price spiral; our slow-motion …

: HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: In 2005-2013, þe Long-Run Came First, & þe Short-Run Came Later Þe 2008-9 collapse was not driven by a flight of assets & income from housing, but a flight to …

: Print the Perpetual (Consol) Bond The “debt ceiling” problem is not a real problem constraining Treasury operations; it is …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-06 Sa GMs plans for in-automobile content as a service; banks hit the wall; once again, full self-driving …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-03 We Quinn Slobodian; North American watersheds; fueling technology booms; Davies on history; Sethi on …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-02 Tu Transistors; bread; platform workers & mandated benefits; Fed after-action report on SVB, …

: I Had Been Unaware of How Common People Claiming Chat-GPt5 Will Be "Emergent" & Will "Generalize" & Be Nearly "AGI" I find that I really cannot believe them. Indeed, I am wondering if how many of them are the same …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-05-01 Mo Musk’s twitter, shooting itself in the foot, over and over again, forever; is human weak …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-28 Fr Nominal wage growth continues strong; Robert Reich reflects; Romer & Romer on applied …

: Inflation Debate Talking Points For American Lyceum event wiþ Garett Jones, John Taylor, Tim Kane, & Brad DeLong :: recorded …

: Preservation Award for Holgate House Restoration & Addition tl; dr: unlike others on our block whom I could name, we did not just attach a large cubic box to …

: Neoliberalism’s Final Stronghold The intro & a link to my April Project Syndicate column: expressing my annoyance at the London …

: A Plea to Chad Orzel (or Anybody Else) for Help wiþ þe Foundations of Quantum Mechanics! No, I do not understand quantum mechanics; yes, I would like to; but there is no Royal Road, is …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-26 We Math and π; computer manufacturing construction; soft landing hopes; human cognition; the Terra-Luna …

: “Slouching Towards Utopia”: Excerpt at þe Milken Review A solid piece of the …

: "Slouching Towards Utopia": Excerpt at þe Milken Review A solid piece of the introduction…

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-25 Tu Limited vision of text-continuation GPT models; crypto in decay; Réne Walter: On Stochastic …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-25 Tu Limited vision of text-continuation GPT models; crypto in decay; Réne Walter: On Stochastic …

: Worshipping at the Cold Altars of Neoliberalism The London Economist keeps the faith and says the …

: Worshipping at the Cold Altars of Neoliberalism The London Economist keeps the faith and says the prayers, even though no one and no thing is …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2023-04-24 Mo The transistor as seen from 1953; the shifting South Asian monsoon; …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2023-04-24 Mo The transistor as seen from 1953; the shifting South Asian monsoon; Noah Smith against NIMBYism; Dan …

: DeLong Base Camp Looking back at the SubStack from end-of-November 2022 to mid-April 2023

: Slouching Podcasts Basecamp Page Weblogs have always been very good with keeping up with the flow of information. But they have been …

: Macroeconomic Outlook Basecamp Page A “StoryStream”…

: SubTuringBradBot Basecamp Page A “StoryStream”…

: Asking SubTuringBradBot 1.01 About Swallow Speed, the Devil of Malthus, & John Maynard Keynes Continuing to try to train a ChatBot so that it can give talks on and answer questions about …

: Asking SubTuringBradBot 1.01 About Swallow Speed, the Devil of Malthus, & John Maynard Keynes 2023-04-21 Fr: continuing to try to train a ChatBot so that it can give talks on and answer …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-21 Fr TInker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy 1999; the continued Twitter dumpster fire; Dan Drezner says smart …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-21 Fr TInker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy 1999; the continued Twitter dumpster fire; Dan Drezner says smart …

: My Introduction to My Class on "New Deal & Neoliberal Orders”  A cleaned-up rough transcript of what I said at the start of class 2023-04-19 We …

: My Introduction to My Class on "New Deal & Neoliberal Orders" A cleaned-up rough transcript of what I said at the start of class 2023-04-19 We

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-19 We Hokusai; Nilay Patel on copyright & its future; immigration & the end of American …

: Educating Future Bureaucrats for an Age of Activist Industrial Policy; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-18 Tu SubStack Notes’s failure mode; educating future bureaucrats; Bryan Ferry; high-paying careers …

: Educating Future Bureaucrats for an Age of Activist Industrial Policy; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-18 Tu SubStack Notes’s failure mode; educating future bureaucrats; Bryan Ferry; high-paying careers …

: MICROBLOGGING: How to Put Sand in þe Gears of Outrage Clickbait?; & Þe Potential Failure Mode of Substack Notes Starting 2023-04-17…

: CHIPS Act Lurching Forward; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-17 Mo CHIPS Act Lurching Forward; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-17 Mo New York Times learned ignorance; …

: CHIPS Act Lurching Forward; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-17 Mo New York Times learned ignorance; CHIPS Act implementation; Cowboy Junkies; working with a software …

: SubStack's Dilemma; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-15 Sa SubStack’s Dilemma; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-15 Sa SubStack’s “nazi …

: SubStack's Dilemma; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-15 Sa SubStack’s “nazi bar” dilemma; pick-up collective action via spontaneous …

: MICROBLOGGING: SubStack Notes Up to 2023–04–14 Fr 13:00 PDT

: Reviewing Charlie Maier’s The Project State & Its Rivals; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-14 Fr Reviewing Charlie Maier; the IMF’s view of the world economy; which risks should be …

: Reviewing Charlie Maier’s Þe Project State & Its Rivals; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-14 Fr Reviewing Charlie Maier; the IMF’s view of the world economy; which risks should be …

: My Inflation Outlook as of 2022-04-12 We; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-12 We The bond-market canary’s plumage is still lustrous!; secular stagnation is likely to return; …

: What Kind of Future Do SubStack & Twitter Have?; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-10 Mo …

: SubStack “Notes” Is About to Be a Thing, Perhaps…; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-09 Su Eternal September approacheth for yet another microblogging platform; Bret Devereaux on why the …

: Very Brief Notes on Forms of Human Organization, & c.; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-08 Sa Notes: primitives for human organization, post-1870 societal-organization patterns, & modes of …

: Continuing to Waste Time by Trying to Understand ChatBots; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-05 We SubTuringEricHobsbawmBot as a one-trick pony; build overpowered AI apps; NYT Pitchbot; Twitter …

: Introduction to the “Post-1870 Political Economy” Unit of Econ 135: The History of Economic Growth; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-07 Fr Where utopia?; primacy of the economic; Friedrich Engels as our guide; successive …

: "Honor" as One of Eight Modes of Human Social Organization; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-03 Mo Modes of human social organization—honor as the brittle one; Bob Reich approaches retirement; …

: No, I Do Not Think þe Microprocessor Doomed Social Democracy; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-02 Su Art Goldhammer & the relative autonomy of the state; peak carbon; Microsoft GPT mojo; …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-29 We The society of the algorithm and the spectacle; algorithmically …

: DRAFT: For My Wednesday Night Lecture: Social Theory for þe 21st Century I gotta cut this in half, somehow, before Wednesday night; 2023 Navin NarayI gotta cut this in half, …

: My Recent Interviews Reveal Growing Optimism: On þe "Pitchfork Economics" Podcast; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-26 Su Wiþ Nick Hanauer & company of Civic Ventures; standing up chatbots for individual documents; NC …

: Notes, Not so & Briefly Noted: For 2023-03-25 Sa Forthcoming Narayan Lecture; private CFR …

: Silicon Valley’s Loss of Assibayah; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-21 Tu Where were the people volunteering to join a rescue syndicate for SVB?; Brad Setser on system risk …

: Þe Nature of French Régimes in þe 1800s Rakesh Bhandari @postdiscipline: “the fundamental inequality r > g can explain the very high …

: Was “Move Late But Fast” þe Right Strategy for the Federal Reserve? My view, since we started reopening the economy after the plague was that the federal reserve should …

: Brad DeLong on þe Human Condition in þe Long 20th Century; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-20 Mo Podcast with Ilari Makela on “Slouching Towards Utopia”; Larry Summers on SVB; Barry …

: podcast: Keen On: Tom Keen & Brad DeLong Talk SVB Bank Collapse; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-19 Su <braddelong.substack.com/p/podcast…> Talking SVB bankruptcy with Tom Keen; Microsoft …

: <braddelong.substack.com/p/welcome…> Welcome to “Modernity”: A Comment on …

: <strike>Wasting Time</strike> Experimenting with GPT-3 ChatBots; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-13 Mo By removing “hexapodia” from the tuning data, which is now confined to the text of Slouching Towards …

: Slides for Day 4 of þe Graduate Economic History Course... Econ 210a: Agricultural revolution & world trade in Dover-Circle development; agriculture as the …

: Slides for Day 3 of þe Graduate Economic History Course... Econ 210a: Sources, immediate consequences, & long-term consequences of domination & …

: Current "AI" Is Three Things: Less Inhuman & Less Stupid ChatBots, High-Dimensional Nonlinear Regression & Classification, & a Way to Separate Gullible VCs from Money; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-11 “A Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer” continues to recede into the future, as, currently, …

: MICROBLOGGING: FLEE, PUNY HUMANS!!!! The OpenAI-powered Brad DeLong ChatBot fueled by his weblog …

: How þe Long 20th Century Transformed þe World; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-09 Th My audio podcast & the transcript from “Hub Dialogues”. I was interviewed by Sean …

: Brad DeLong & Sean Speer (Feb 8, 2023): How the long 20th century transformed the world <thehub.ca/2023-02-0…> The Hub Podcast (L’Orignal-Toronto-Ottawa-Edmonton-Vancouver) …

: Industrial Policy: From Engels to Eisenhower, & Beyond <braddelong.substack.com/p/industr…> For Promarket: 2023-02-07: The only truly live …

: REVISITED: How Worried Should We Be About Rising Inflation?; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-07 Tu <<braddelong.substack.com/p/revisit…>> Looking back on my debate late last summer …

: MICROBLOGGING: Gillian Tett, Carmen Reinhart, Peter Schiff, & Brad DeLong on IAI.TV Talking …

: PODCAST: “Hexapodia” is þe Key Insight! XLVII: “Polycrisis” Was Just the New Cold War All the Time! <<braddelong.substack.com/p/podcast…>> Friend-Shoring, Decoupling, & …

: VIDEO: Þe Market Giveth; Þe Market Taketh Away: Blessed Be þe Name of þe Market?: From Cicero to Mitch McConnell, via Adam Smith & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-05 Su <<braddelong.substack.com/p/video-e…>> …

: Brad DeLong Flies His Orthodox Engelsist Freak Flag on Transformations in the Mode of Production; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-04 Sa <<braddelong.substack.com/p/brad-de…>> A Non-Platonic Twitter Dialogue: In a …

: Utopia or Bust?, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-02-03 Fr <<braddelong.substack.com/p/utopia-…>> Project Syndicate column, finally using …

: David Chance: REVIEW of “Slouching” at Independent.ie (2022-10-01 Sa) <<braddelong.substack.com/p/david-c…>> Nice to see: David Chance …

: DRAFT: For My February Project Syndicate Column... <<braddelong.substack.com/p/draft-f…>> New Deal Order, Neoliberalism, Neofascism, …

: J. Bradford DeLong Says More… 2023-01-31 Tu (2022-10-04 Tu) <<braddelong.substack.com/p/project…>> Project Syndicate: In March, you wrote …

: Five Things, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-01-30 Mo My disappointment wiþ þe Biden administration’s failure to revoke Trump’s China tariffs… …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-01-29 Su Michael DeLong on Insurance, Racism, & More… Þt Nick Bostrom Email… North, Gruber, …

: Þe Meaning of 1870: Þe Year Everything Changed For “The International Economy”, Fall 2022 issue; an excerpt from “Slouching …

: Basic Books UK Runs a Joint Social-Media Promotion! braddelong.substack.com/p/basic-b…

: Learning From Past Fights With Inflation Brad DeLong & Ray Suarez talk on Ray’s “Shifting Ground” podcast about the …

: Slides for Day 2 of the Graduate Economic History Course Econ 210a: Technological roots of economic growth; major features of eagle’s-eye human …

: DAY 5: LECTURE NOTES: 2.3. Inequality & Domination Before Modern Economic Growth …

: On Re-Meeting bCourses, UC Berkeley’s CMS... …& BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-01-24 Tu When I run into systems that get in my way relative …

: Lecture Notes Basecamp Page <<braddelong.substack.com/p/lecture…>>

: Martin Luther King, Jr.: Letter from Birmingham Jail My Dear Fellow Clergymen: While confined here in the Birmingham city jail, I came across your recent …

: Readings for Econ 135 S 2023: History of Economic Growth Required Books: Clark: A Farewell to Alms …

: Hobbist & Lockeian Underlying Assumptions, & Adam Smith Thought... …& BRIEFLY NOTED: for 2023-01-15 Su Last Friday we had our semester-opening N2PE event …

: It Is Harmful to My Psychological Health for Me to Read David Brooks... & BRIEFLY NOTED for 2023-01-13 Fr David Brooks says (I paraphrase): I did not do my job. I have …

: MICROBLOGGING: This really looks to me like three-in-four odds that we had a combination of a …

: Republicans Say: Democrats Must Be Responsible, & So Give Us an Advantageous Campaign Issue, & BRIEFLY NOTED The Debt Ceiling, &: Alternate Brads, & more; including Damned if I can understand why …

: Chat-GPT: What Is It Good For?, & BRIEFLY NOTED For 2023-01-11 We: I think my assessment is going to be something like this: an occasionally …

: Steve Donoghue: REVIEW of “Slouching” at Open Letters Review 2022-10-10 Sa: Very nice to see: Steve Donoghue: ‘Historical asides are so winningly conversational …

: Playing wiþ Chat-GPT What might it be good for? Chat-GPT looks back at up to 4000 tokens (maybe 3000 words?) in the …

: PODCAST: “Hexapodia” is þe Key Insight! XLVI: Þe One Where We Talk About Everything, wiþ Special Guest Miles Kimball Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; …

: Utopia & Its Enemies: Thomas Robert Malthus In which I digress to answer a question from Matthew Yglesias: Is Thomas Robert Malthus’s argument …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-01-09 Mo Things Þt Went Whizzing by… MUST-READ: Jonathan Sperber’s The Age of Interconnection. ONE IMAGE: …

: READING: Victor Serge (1938): 1938 Preface to “Year One of the Russian Revolution" Branko Milanovic is reading Victor Serge’s “Notebooks”, and asks and answers: “How …

: DRAFT: Preliminary History-Oriented Throat-Clearing on American Industrial Policy Trying to write something about CHIPS, IRA, and American industrial policy. But so far the only …

: BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2022-01-06 Fr CONDITION: BLS Employment Report MUST-READ: Lauren Boebert! ONE …

: So it looks to me like McCarthy is now where he had hoped to be on the evening before the new House …

: The Lighting Budget of Thomas Jefferson Jefferson spent 7% of his income as Secretary of State to purchase as much illumination as is …

: The Fed Needs to Be Buying Recession Insurance—But Is Not Should the U.S. fall Into recession soon, the Federal Reserve will have very little room to loosen …

: Morning Stars Dance For Joy: Looking East at Venus and Mercury Venus and Mercury before dawn from the Berkeley Hills in January 2019

: Why Economic History? Economic History is definitely, IMHO, the queen if not of all the social sciences at least of all of …