www.bloomberg.com/news/live…>","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Economics"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The news with the August employment report is that the job market is a hair weaker than we thought it was going to be. Payroll employment as of mid-August looks to have been only 56,000 higher than we thought it had been in mid-July. (Seasonally adjusted, of course.) Benchmark that against a labor force growth trend that is an increase of 160,000 a month or so. (No, the month-to-month jump in household-survey employment is not meaningful: statistical jiggle.)"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"New York Fed President John Williams starts speaking at 08:45 EDT at the CFR: <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.cfr.org/event/c-p…","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"www.cfr.org/event/c-p…"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":">. Governor Waller speaks at Notre Dame at 11:00 EDT."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"My bet is that they both say things that make it extremely likely that an 0.5%-point cut in the Federal Funds rate is on the way this month. But my reading of the FOMC has been less reliable than usual since the start of the last tightening cycle in 2022."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Bloomberg has the wrong headline. It should be “revision-adjusted, August payroll employment only 56,000 higher than in last month’s report”:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Bloomberg"},{"type":"text","text":": US Added 142,000 Jobs in August, Trailing Forecasts: ‘Sebastian Boyd: “Markets are reading that data as clearing the way for "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"steep interest rate cuts"},{"type":"text","text":". Two-year yields initially jumped after the jobs data, and the slope of the 2s-10s curve flattened, but they both quickly turned around again. Two-year yields fell to the lowest since Aug. 5 after payrolls rose less than expected. The previous two months were revised to remove 86,000 jobs. So that means the labor market is much weaker than thought…. <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.bloomberg.com/news/live…","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.bloomberg.com/news/live…"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":0,"attachments":[{"id":"cc89d426-1cd3-415c-8083-8abbd546022b","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"www.bloomberg.com/news/live…","host":"bloomberg.com","title":"Live: Analysis of US Jobs Report for August","image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bbf07094-a810-495f-af9f-ae3340aabcae_1200x800.jpeg","original_image":"[assets.bwbx.io/images/us...](https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iMcvFtpWZNXA/v0/1200x800.jpg)"},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>

www.brookings.edu/articles/…","target":"_blank","rel":"noopener noreferrer nofollow","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.brookings.edu/articles/…"},{"type":"text","text":" It was all about the direction of travel, with a focus on the labor market… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.brookings.edu/articles/…","target":"_blank","rel":"noopener noreferrer nofollow","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.brookings.edu/articles/…"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":0,"attachments":[{"id":"b939aefc-38ee-4ebe-9c34-d83e5327cee8","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"www.brookings.edu/articles/…","host":"brookings.edu","title":"Don Kohn’s reflections on Jackson Hole 2024","description":"Don Kohn is a 40-year veteran of the Fed and has been a frequent participant in the Jackson Hole conference. David Wessel talked to him about this year’s conference.","image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/659d7659-781e-4771-a96b-82f99cab5dff_2048x1365.jpeg","original_image":"[www.brookings.edu/wp-conten...](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Don-Kohn-on-Brookings-stage.jpg?quality=75)"},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>

archive.org/details/s…>","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Public Reason"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"How to create a tradition. Simply make stuff up as to how old it is"},{"type":"text","text":". "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Needless to say, what follows the ellipsis below was not the manner in which the non-existent Parliament was held in the reign of King Edward “The Confessor” Wessex, 1042-1066. Rather, it appears to come from the reign of Edward III Plantagenet, 1327-1377, in an attempt to codify and regulate previous quite new and hence much more loosy-goosy practices"},{"type":"text","text":": "}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"William Stubbs"},{"type":"text","text":": Select Charters: ‘The Manner of Holding Parliament: Here is described the manner in which the parliament of the king of England and of his English was held in the time of king Edward, son of king Ethelred. Which manner, indeed, was expounded by the more discreet men of the kingdom in the presence of William, duke of Normandy, and Conqueror and king of England, the Conqueror himself commanding this; and was approved by him, and was customary in his times and also in the times of his successors, the kings of England… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"archive.org/details/s…","target":"_new","rel":"noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"archive.org/details/s…"},{"type":"text","text":"> "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Citation"},{"type":"text","text":":"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Stubbs, William"},{"type":"text","text":". 1870. "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Select Charters and Other Illustrations of English Constitutional History from the Earliest Times to the Reign of Edward the First"},{"type":"text","text":". Oxford: Clarendon Press… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"archive.org/details/s…","target":"_new","rel":"noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"archive.org/details/s…"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":0,"attachments":[{"id":"67a54519-1193-42e1-99ab-004bfd9a5b7d","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"archive.org/details/s…","host":"archive.org","title":"Select charters and other illustrations of English constitutional history from the earliest times to the reign of Edward the First : Stubbs, William, 1825-1901 : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive","description":"xvi, 554 p. 20 cm","image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/72b19034-7aa0-446e-b6ea-fe9fcbc3d118_180x278.jpeg","original_image":"[archive.org/services/...](https://archive.org/services/img/selectcharters00stubiala)"},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>

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backofmind.substack.com/p/the-tai…>\n\nThe Intel board hired Pat Gelsinger in 2021 to push Intel to spend an extra $50 billion on investment to create, by 2027, a profit-making foundry business to make chips designed by itself and others at scale with industry-leading technological competence. The plan was to roar through the “nodes”—Intel 7, Intel 4, 3, 20A, and 18A—without trying to harvest large profits from each node before moving on to the next. While Intel attempts this high-wire act, operating profits carry little information about whether it is succeeding. They simply mark the speed of decline of Intel’s old businesses. To interrupt this plan in the middle is to, in Dan Davies’s words, “tearfully promising… to cut costs and not waste money… [and] so ensur[ing] that money would be wasted…”\n\nThe right strategy once Gelsinger’s bet—which may have been a stupid one—was laid on the table was to wait until 2027, and look then to see whether Intel 18A was attractive as a platform to chip designers and chip customers, and then do whatever seemed good.\n\nBut the right strategy is not to let numbers that do not carry information about the likely success of the high-wire act dominate decision making right now.","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Economics: Tech"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"This reaction to bad financial-accounting numbers seems to me to be a very bad sign for Intel’s future size and even existence as an institution—as a production-network institution providing sales to upstream stakeholders, income to corporate stakeholders, and value to downstream stakeholders; as what is its most important role as a technological advance-forcing institution; and even in the long run in its least important role of a financial vehicle institution providing returns to bondholders and stockholders:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Dinesh Nair, Ian King & Ryan Gould"},{"type":"text","text":": Intel Considers Options Such as a Foundry Split; Shares Soar"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":": ‘"},{"type":"text","text":"The company is discussing.. a split of its product-design and manufacturing businesses, as well as which factory projects might potentially be scrapped…. The news sent Intel shares up 9.5% to $22.04 in New York on Friday, marking the biggest single-day gain since October 2022. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs… have been providing advice on the possibilities, which could also include potential M&A…. The discussions have only grown more urgent since the Santa Clara, California-based company delivered a grim earnings report this month, which sent the shares plunging to their lowest level since 2013… "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"<"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"finance.yahoo.com/news/inte…","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}},{"type":"bold"}],"text":"finance.yahoo.com/news/inte…"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Why do I think this? Because there is no reason to believe that current operating numbers are capturing what is important. And the people it is listening to right now have no grasp of what is important."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Dan Davies, I think, put his finger on the problem:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Dan Davies"},{"type":"text","text":": the tail that wags the dog: ‘Companies which are run by their investor relations department…. When things were going well, it wasn’t too much of a problem…. When they got bad… companies which were doing badly seemed to develop this amazing cringe… promised that they were listening to investors’ concerns. Which was problematic, because investors’ concerns are always “give us more dividends, reduce investment, divest businesses, shrink assets, dividends, we want them”… short term financial capitalism… but more importantly… investors fundamentally disliked the thing and thought it was a bad business…. They either didn’t own the shares or were in the process of selling them, so obviously they weren’t going to put much thought into its future strategy. This was the death spiral…. Bosses kept tearfully promising to do better, to cut costs and not waste money. And in doing so, ensured that money would be wasted, in the pointless exercise of trying to get stable revenues out of a cyclical business… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"backofmind.substack.com/p/the-tai…","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"backofmind.substack.com/p/the-tai…"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The Intel board hired Pat Gelsinger in 2021 to push Intel to spend an extra $50 billion on investment to create, by 2027, a profit-making foundry business to make chips designed by itself and others at scale with industry-leading technological competence. The plan was to roar through the “nodes”—Intel 7, Intel 4, 3, 20A, and 18A—without trying to harvest large profits from each node before moving on to the next. While Intel attempts this high-wire act, operating profits carry little information about whether it is succeeding. They simply mark the speed of decline of Intel’s old businesses. To interrupt this plan in the middle is to, in Dan Davies’s words, “tearfully promising… to cut costs and not waste money… [and] so ensur[ing] that money would be wasted…”"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The right strategy once Gelsinger’s bet—which may have been a stupid one—was laid on the table was to wait until 2027, and look then to see whether Intel 18A was attractive as a platform to chip designers and chip customers, and then do whatever seemed good."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"But the right strategy is not to let numbers that do not carry information about the likely success of the high-wire act dominate decision making right now."}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":5,"attachments":[{"id":"e54fbd7e-9757-4130-8f82-08bc8daf699e","type":"post","publication":{"apple_pay_disabled":false,"apex_domain":null,"author_id":971013,"byline_images_enabled":false,"bylines_enabled":true,"chartable_token":null,"community_enabled":true,"copyright":"Dan Davies","cover_photo_url":null,"created_at":"2018-10-05T10:35:07.302Z","custom_domain_optional":false,"custom_domain":null,"custom_publication_theme_id":null,"default_comment_sort":"best_first","default_coupon":null,"default_group_coupon":null,"default_show_guest_bios":true,"email_banner_url":null,"email_from_name":"Dan Davies’ &quot;Back of Mind&quot; newsletter","email_from":null,"embed_tracking_disabled":false,"explicit":false,"expose_paywall_content_to_search_engines":true,"fb_pixel_id":null,"fb_site_verification_token":null,"flagged_as_spam":false,"founding_subscription_benefits":[],"free_subscription_benefits":["At present all the posts are 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