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Looking back on my debate late last summer with Josh Hausman on whether controlling U.S. inflation is likely to require a substantial recession. .

Josh tried to pick apart my argument that 1947 and 1951 were quite plausibly better analogies to what is now going on than 1966-1984 was. At the time, the most ground that I could give was perhaps.

If:

• Supply sharks remain small and, well, transitory…
• The Federal Reserve continue to hold two it’s commitment to make a long-run inflation control job one…
• Markets continue to credit the Federal Reserve’s commitment…

If all three of these held, then 1947 and 1951 would be better analogies than 1966-1984.

The case that I was right looks significantly stronger now than it looked back last August.