BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-19 Th
Mysteries of the Treasury risk premium, LLMs fail at doing math, Andreesen’s techno-optimist manifesto gives Holbo hives, Anstey on the end? of the low interest-rate era, fleeing the barbarians, & Andreesen gives Drezner hives; Engels & Marx as epigones of Adam Smith the historical materialist stage theorist; accelerating global warming; Shaggy & Rayvon: Angel; & What Is the 10-Yr Real Rate Going to Be I & II, Du Fu on war conscription, & briefly noted for 2023-10-15 Su…
NOTES:
Economics Watch: Does the term premium scale linearly with duration—should the ten-year bond command four times the term premium of the two-yearn note? Or is there some different and strange alchemy going on there? The problem is that we have no good models based on any of utility, risk, or institutions for the average level of term and risk premia—let alone any good models of how changing fundamentals change them:
: ‘On Wall Street, many have used term-premium models to buttress arguments <www.wsj.com/economy/c…> that yields have been rising largely thanks to a growing federal budget deficit…. The anecdotal evidence that yields are climbing due to shifting supply-demand dynamics is compelling, but the models showing rising term premiums are “the measure—that’s where you’re seeing it,” said Blake Gwinn, head of U.S. rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets…”,“body_json”:{“type”:“doc”,“attrs”:{“schemaVersion”:“v1”},“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”},{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“Economics Watch”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: “},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“Does the term premium scale linearly with duration—should the ten-year bond command four times the term premium of the two-yearn note? Or is there some different and strange alchemy going on there? The problem is that we have no good models based on any of utility, risk, or institutions for the average level of term and risk premia—let alone any good models of how changing fundamentals change them:“}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“blockquote”,“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”}],“text”:“Sam Goldfarb”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: Wall Street’s Latest Obsession Is an Unknowable Number <“},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”www.wsj.com/finance/i…”,“target”:”_blank”,“rel”:“nofollow ugc noopener”,“class”:“note-link”}}],“text”:”www.wsj.com/finance/i…”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“>: ‘On Wall Street, many have used term-premium models to buttress arguments <“},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”www.wsj.com/economy/c…”,“target”:”_blank”,“rel”:“”,“class”:“css-1h1us5y-StyledLink el06won0”}}],“text”:”www.wsj.com/economy/c…”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:” that yields have been rising largely thanks to a growing federal budget deficit…. The anecdotal evidence that yields are climbing due to shifting supply-demand dynamics is compelling, but the models showing rising term premiums are “the measure—that’s where you’re seeing it,” said Blake Gwinn, head of U.S. rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets…”}]}]}]},“restacks”:0,“reaction_count”:0,“attachments”:[{“id”:“306bfedc-b213-4490-8a07-4c8bd4f29cae”,“type”:“link”,“linkMetadata”:{“image”:“https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d50f24f3-0ec3-427a-aa15-6d3bcab182a0_1280x640.jpeg","title":"Rising Interest Rates Mean Deficits Finally Matter”,“description”:“Investors ignored deficits when inflation was low. Now they are paying attention and getting worried.”,“url”:”www.wsj.com/economy/c…”,“host”:“wsj.com”},“explicit”:false}],“name”:“Brad DeLong”,“user_id”:16879,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
GPT-LLM-ML Watch: I am having a very hard time understanding how this could possibly be: math ain’t that hard, and we learn multiplication via examples. What are our brains doing when we learn math that LLMs are not? Is it really the case that the induction we do is Deep Black Magic somehow incorporated into our own neural networks back in Deep Time through the raw sorcery of the genetic algorithm, and not something that one of our computer’s raw neural networks confronted with a training data set can ever acquire?:
: ‘No matter how much data you train them on, they still don’t truly understand multiplication…. The LLM based system is generalizing by similarity, doing better on cases that are in or near the training set, never, ever getting to a complete, abstract, reliable representation of what multiplication is. A calculator, without the benefit of 2B parameters, would be at 100%, because it is programmed, at the factory, with an algorithm that actually computes multiplication. The LLM never induces such an algorithm…. Some kind of hybrid may well work, but LLMs on their own remain stuck…”,“body_json”:{“type”:“doc”,“attrs”:{“schemaVersion”:“v1”},“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”},{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“GPT-LLM-ML Watch”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: “},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“I am having a very hard time understanding how this could possibly be: math ain’t that hard, and we learn multiplication via examples. What are our brains doing when we learn math that LLMs are not? Is it really the case that the induction we do is Deep Black Magic somehow incorporated into our own neural networks back in Deep Time through the raw sorcery of the genetic algorithm, and not something that one of our computer’s raw neural networks confronted with a training data set can ever acquire?:“}]},{“type”:“blockquote”,“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”}],“text”:“Gary Marcus”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: “Math is hard”—if you are an LLM—and why that matters “},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”garymarcus.substack.com/p/math-is-hard-if-you-are-an-llm-and?publication_id=888615&post_id=138086370&isFreemail=true&r=d0v”,“target”:”_blank”,“rel”:“noopener noreferrer nofollow”,“class”:“note-link”}}],“text”:”garymarcus.substack.com/p/math-is-hard-if-you-are-an-llm-and?publication_id=888615&post_id=138086370&isFreemail=true&r=d0v”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“>: ‘No matter how much data you train them on, they still don’t truly understand multiplication…. The LLM based system is generalizing by similarity, doing better on cases that are in or near the training set, “},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”},{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“never, ever”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:” getting to a complete, abstract, reliable representation of what multiplication is. A calculator, without the benefit of 2B parameters, would be at 100%, because it is programmed, at the factory, with an algorithm that actually computes multiplication. The LLM “},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“never”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:” induces such an algorithm…. Some kind of hybrid may well work, but LLMs on their own remain stuck…”}]}]}]},“restacks”:0,“reaction_count”:0,“attachments”:[{“id”:“ad18603f-7fdd-48b0-aa40-8096f1ca4df4”,“type”:“post”,“publication”:{“apple_pay_disabled”:false,“author_id”:14807526,“byline_images_enabled”:true,“bylines_enabled”:true,“chartable_token”:null,“community_enabled”:true,“copyright”:“Gary Marcus”,“cover_photo_url”:null,“created_at”:“2022-05-14T14:09:01.903Z”,“custom_domain_optional”:false,“custom_domain”:null,“custom_publication_theme_id”:null,“default_comment_sort”:“best_first”,“default_coupon”:null,“default_group_coupon”:null,“default_show_guest_bios”:true,“email_banner_url”:null,“email_from_name”:null,“email_from”:null,“embed_tracking_disabled”:false,“explicit”:false,“expose_paywall_content_to_search_engines”:true,“fb_pixel_id”:null,“fb_site_verification_token”:null,“flagged_as_spam”:false,“founding_subscription_benefits”:[],“free_subscription_benefits”:[“Occasional public 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Even pointed me to a paper, allegedly offering proof. The paper turns out to be pretty great, doing exactly the right test, but it doesn’t prove what its title alleges. More like the opposite.”,“wordcount”:662,“postTags”:[],“publishedBylines”:[{“id”:14807526,“name”:“Gary Marcus”,“handle”:“garymarcus”,“previous_name”:null,“photo_url”:“https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8fb2e48c-be2a-4db7-b68c-90300f00fd1e_1668x1456.jpeg","bio":"Scientist; Author Rebooting.AI (Forbes 7 Must Read Books in AI), Kluge, & Guitar Zero; Founder and CEO, Geometric Intelligence (acquired by Uber)“,“profile_set_up_at”:“2022-05-14T14:01:17.198Z”,“publicationUsers”:[{“id”:830179,“user_id”:14807526,“publication_id”:888615,“role”:“admin”,“public”:true,“is_primary”:false,“publication”:{“id”:888615,“name”:“Marcus on AI”,“subdomain”:“garymarcus”,“custom_domain”:null,“custom_domain_optional”:false,“hero_text”:““Amongst the myriad of opinions, one voice stands out as a rational and impartial advocate: Gary Marcus.”\n—Candice Clark”,“logo_url”:null,“author_id”:14807526,“theme_var_background_pop”:“#EA410B”,“created_at”:“2022-05-14T14:09:01.903Z”,“rss_website_url”:null,“email_from_name”:null,“copyright”:“Gary Marcus”,“founding_plan_name”:“Founding Member”,“community_enabled”:true,“invite_only”:false,“payments_state”:“enabled”,“language”:null,“explicit”:false}}],“twitter_screen_name”:“GaryMarcus”,“is_guest”:false,“bestseller_tier”:100,“primary_publication”:{“id”:888615,“subdomain”:“garymarcus”,“custom_domain_optional”:false,“name”:“Marcus on AI”,“author_id”:14807526,“handles_enabled”:false,“explicit”:false}}],“reaction”:false,“reaction_count”:16,“comment_count”:4,“child_comment_count”:3,“audio_items”:[{“post_id”:138086370,“voice_id”:“en-US-JennyNeural”,“audio_url”:“https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/138086370/tts/en-US-JennyNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"hasCashtag":false,"is_saved":false,"saved_at":null,"is_viewed":true,"restacked":false}}],"name":"Brad DeLong”,“user_id”:16879,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
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CryptoGrift Watch: It does not seem like Marc Andreesen’s techno-optimist manifesto is generating positive reactions:
, untenured adjuncts, playing God, insulated from all consequences, callously muscling helpless billionaire technologists aside, throwing caution to the winds, flinging about reckless terms like [checks notes] ‘ethics’ and ‘risk’. Oh when will we learn?: “Our enemy is the ivory tower, the know-it-all credentialed expert worldview, indulging in abstract theories, luxury beliefs, social engineering, disconnected from the real work delusional, unelected, and unaccountable—playing God with everyone else’s lives, with total insulation from the consequences…” “Our present society has been subjected to a mass demoralization campaign for six decades—against technology and against life—under varying names like ‘existential risk’, ‘sustainability’, ‘ESG’, ‘Sustainable Development Goals’, ‘social responsibility’, ‘stakeholder capitalism’, ‘Precautionary Principle’, ‘trust and safety’, ‘tech ethics’, ‘risk management’, ‘de-growth’, ‘the limits of growth’…”,“body_json”:{“type”:“doc”,“attrs”:{“schemaVersion”:“v1”},“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”},{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“CryptoGrift Watch”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: “},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“It does not seem like Marc Andreesen’s techno-optimist manifesto is generating positive reactions:“}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“blockquote”,“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”}],“text”:“John Holbo”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: ‘Damn those mad <“},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”twitter.com/jholbo1/s…”,“target”:”_blank”,“rel”:“nofollow ugc noopener”,“class”:“note-link”}}],“text”:”twitter.com/jholbo1/s…”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“>, untenured adjuncts, playing God, insulated from all consequences, callously muscling helpless billionaire technologists aside, throwing caution to the winds, flinging about reckless terms like [checks notes] ‘ethics’ and ‘risk’. Oh when will we learn?: “Our enemy is the ivory tower, the know-it-all credentialed expert worldview, indulging in abstract theories, luxury beliefs, social engineering, disconnected from the real work delusional, unelected, and unaccountable—playing God with everyone else’s lives, with total insulation from the consequences…” “Our present society has been subjected to a mass demoralization campaign for six decades—against technology and against life—under varying names like ‘existential risk’, ‘sustainability’, ‘ESG’, ‘Sustainable Development Goals’, ‘social responsibility’, ‘stakeholder capitalism’, ‘Precautionary Principle’, ‘trust and safety’, ‘tech ethics’, ‘risk management’, ‘de-growth’, ‘the limits of growth’…”}]}]}]},“restacks”:0,“reaction_count”:0,“attachments”:[],“name”:“Brad DeLong”,“user_id”:16879,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
Economics: Say, rather, that the super-low interest-rate era may be dead—by the standards of the pre-2000 world, US Treasury interest rates are still low, low, low. I see four possibly sensible arguments that the super-low interest-rate era is dead—AI (but I cannot see that as a net source of investment demand, and see it as raising g and not r and hence lowering r-g); fighting global warming (which depends for its effects on interest rates of how it is financed, and whether it actually happen; global decoupling and rearmament (the most serious possibility); and, last, we-don’t-know-why-but-we-see-investment-demand-roaring-forward-in-spite-of-rates. Which is a fact. But is it a sea-change, or is it just lags and built-up savings? I am not convinced, yet, that the super-low interest-rates era is permanently dead:
: ‘There’s a fundamental shift in the global economy from a state of excess supply to deficient supply…. Demographics and globalization meant abundant supply. Wages were held down, and inflation with them. So much was being made that the stockpile of savings around the world exceeded investment demand…. That’s all changed now…. And the clean-energy transition means a whole lot of investment needed, which will mop up savings…. Tdebate now is not so much whether we’re in a higher-rate era, but just where is the level of the “new normal for inflation and rates”…”,“body_json”:{“type”:“doc”,“attrs”:{“schemaVersion”:“v1”},“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”},{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“Economics”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”:“},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:” Say, rather, that the super-low interest-rate era may be dead—by the standards of the pre-2000 world, US Treasury interest rates are still low, low, low. I see four possibly sensible arguments that the super-low interest-rate era is dead—AI (but I cannot see that as a net source of investment demand, and see it as raising g and not r and hence lowering r-g); fighting global warming (which depends for its effects on interest rates of how it is financed, and whether it actually happen; global decoupling and rearmament (the most serious possibility); and, last, we-don’t-know-why-but-we-see-investment-demand-roaring-forward-in-spite-of-rates. Which is a fact. But is it a sea-change, or is it just lags and built-up savings? I am not convinced, yet, that the super-low interest-rates era is permanently dead:“}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“blockquote”,“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”}],“text”:“Chris Anstey”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: Consensus Builds That the Low-Rate Era Is Dead <“},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”www.bloomberg.com/news/news…”,“target”:”_blank”,“rel”:“nofollow ugc noopener”,“class”:“note-link”}}],“text”:”www.bloomberg.com/news/news…”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“>: ‘There’s a fundamental shift in the global economy from a state of excess supply to deficient supply…. Demographics and globalization meant abundant supply. Wages were held down, and inflation with them. So much was being made that the stockpile of savings around the world exceeded investment demand…. That’s all changed now…. And the clean-energy transition means a whole lot of investment needed, which will mop up savings…. Tdebate now is not so much whether we’re in a higher-rate era, but just where is the level of the “new normal for inflation and rates”…”}]}]}]},“restacks”:0,“reaction_count”:0,“attachments”:[{“id”:“0382a48f-633e-42d4-a3ba-212b2b23a3e8”,“type”:“link”,“linkMetadata”:{“image”:“https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9607c8ec-59b6-4156-9fa3-731b526011ca_1200x675.png","title":"Consensus Builds That the Low-Rate Era Is Dead”,“description”:“I’m Chris Anstey, a senior editor in Boston, and today we’re looking at an undercurrent of concern evident in last week’s global finance meetings. Send us feedback and tips to ecodaily@bloomberg.net or get in touch on X (formerly known as Twitter) via @economics. And if you aren’t yet signed up to r…”,“url”:”www.bloomberg.com/news/news…”,“host”:“bloomberg.com”},“explicit”:false}],“name”:“Brad DeLong”,“user_id”:16879,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
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Neofascism Watch: When does one conclude that the barbarians have arrived? And what does one do then—except prepare to flee?:
: ‘Uwe Wittstock’s new account of writers considering whether to flee or to remain in Germany during Hitler’s rise to power sheds light on the choices faced by many writers in India and Russia today…. “It will have become clear to you now,” Joseph Roth wrote to Stefan Zweig in mid-February 1933, “that we are heading for a great catastrophe.” Two weeks previously, on January 30, Germany’s eighty-five-year-old president, Paul von Hindenburg, had appointed as chancellor a man who for more than a decade had spoken and written frankly about his resolve to extirpate democracy and Jews from the country. Roth, who left Berlin the same morning Adolf Hitler came to power and never returned to Germany, was desperate to make his complacent friend recognize the perils before them. “Quite apart,” he wrote Zweig, “from our personal situations” (both writers were Jewish, Zweig living in Austria), “our literary and material existence has been wrecked—we are headed for a new war…. The barbarians have taken over. Do not deceive yourself. Hell reigns”…”,“body_json”:{“type”:“doc”,“attrs”:{“schemaVersion”:“v1”},“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”},{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“Neofascism Watch”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: “},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“When does one conclude that the barbarians have arrived? And what does one do then—except prepare to flee?:“}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“blockquote”,“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”}],“text”:“Pankaj Mishra”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: When the Barbarians Take Over <“},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”www.nybooks.com/articles/…”,“target”:”_blank”,“rel”:“nofollow ugc noopener”,“class”:“note-link”}}],“text”:”www.nybooks.com/articles/…”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“>: ‘Uwe Wittstock’s new account of writers considering whether to flee or to remain in Germany during Hitler’s rise to power sheds light on the choices faced by many writers in India and Russia today…. “It will have become clear to you now,” Joseph Roth wrote to Stefan Zweig in mid-February 1933, “that we are heading for a great catastrophe.” Two weeks previously, on January 30, Germany’s eighty-five-year-old president, Paul von Hindenburg, had appointed as chancellor a man who for more than a decade had spoken and written frankly about his resolve to extirpate democracy and Jews from the country. Roth, who left Berlin the same morning Adolf Hitler came to power and never returned to Germany, was desperate to make his complacent friend recognize the perils before them. “Quite apart,” he wrote Zweig, “from our personal situations” (both writers were Jewish, Zweig living in Austria), “our literary and material existence has been wrecked—we are headed for a new war…. The barbarians have taken over. Do not deceive yourself. Hell reigns”…”}]}]}]},“restacks”:0,“reaction_count”:0,“attachments”:[{“id”:“0696dc4a-6ba1-4c0b-af19-a9ec196862a1”,“type”:“link”,“linkMetadata”:{“image”:“https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/468dd7bd-292a-4d2c-8e36-d4833063e74f_900x600.jpeg","title":"When the Barbarians Take Over | Pankaj Mishra”,“description”:““It will have become clear to you now,” Joseph Roth wrote to Stefan Zweig in mid-February 1933, “that we are heading for a great catastrophe.” Two weeks”,“url”:”www.nybooks.com/articles/…”,“host”:“nybooks.com”},“explicit”:false}],“name”:“Brad DeLong”,“user_id”:16879,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
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Plutocracy Watch: As a card-carrying techno-optimist, am I wrong to have a bad feeling about Marc Andreesen’s “Techno-Optimist Manifesto”?:
: ‘When thought leaders can’t stand the heat, they should shut the hell up…. After proclaiming that he believes “in an absolute rejection of resentment,” we then arrive at [Andreesen’s] section on “The Enemy”, which does seem to contradict the lack of resentment. And who is the enemy?…. “Our enemies are not bad people—but rather bad ideas… a mass demoralization campaign for six decades—against technology and against life—under varying names like “existential risk”, “sustainability”, “ESG”, “Sustainable Development Goals”, “social responsibility”, “stakeholder capitalism”, “Precautionary Principle”, “trust and safety”, “tech ethics”, “risk management”, “de-growth”, “the limits of growth”… based on bad ideas of the past—zombie ideas, many derived from Communism, disastrous then and now—that have refused to die…”. Did you notice he lumped together some concepts that are admittedly a bit bonkers (precautionary principle, de-growth, limits of growth) with some concepts that are somewhat debatable (social responsibility, stakeholder capitalism) with some concepts that are politically polarizing but practically anodyne (ESG, Sustainable Development Goals, trust and safety) with some concepts that I would hope any responsible CEO or policymaker consider to be important (existential risk, sustainability, tech ethics, risk management)…. Like Hanania and others, he is trying to insert just enough plausibly absurd ideas so you will accept that the other ideas must be absurd even when that is not obvious at all (oh, and it should be noted that none of these ideas emanated from communism)….\n\nLet’s get back to Andreessen’s description of the enemy…. “Our enemy is the ivory tower, the know-it-all credentialed expert worldview, indulging in abstract theories, luxury beliefs, social engineering, disconnected from the real world, delusional, unelected, and unaccountable—playing God with everyone else’s lives, with total insulation from the consequences…”. For a guy who claims to absolutely reject resentment, it sure seems like he has packed an awful lot of it into those paragraphs!… \n\nIf Andreessen can’t handle criticism from university professors then he should shut the hell up, retreat to the safe space of his house, and count his billions…. \n\nIf Andreessen’s problem is with techno-skepticism about AI… the call is coming from inside the house. It is pushback from Silicon Valley types, much more than the ivory tower, that is capturing the attention of the media. \n\nFinally… he fails to discuss the role that liberal democracy plays in a technologically advanced society…”,“body_json”:{“type”:“doc”,“attrs”:{“schemaVersion”:“v1”},“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”},{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“Plutocracy Watch”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”:“},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:” As a card-carrying techno-optimist, am I wrong to have a bad feeling about Marc Andreesen’s “Techno-Optimist Manifesto”?:“}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“blockquote”,“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”}],“text”:“Dan Drezner”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: Regarding \“The Techno-Optimist Manifesto\” <“},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”danieldrezner.substack.com/p/regardi…”,“target”:”_blank”,“rel”:“nofollow ugc noopener”,“class”:“note-link”}}],“text”:”danieldrezner.substack.com/p/regardi…”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“>: ‘When thought leaders can’t stand the heat, they should shut the hell up…. After proclaiming that he believes “in an absolute rejection of resentment,” we then arrive at [Andreesen’s] section on “The Enemy”, which does seem to contradict the lack of resentment. And who is the enemy?…. “Our enemies are not bad people—but rather bad ideas… a mass demoralization campaign for six decades—against technology and against life—under varying names like “existential risk”, “sustainability”, “ESG”, “Sustainable Development Goals”, “social responsibility”, “stakeholder capitalism”, “Precautionary Principle”, “trust and safety”, “tech ethics”, “risk management”, “de-growth”, “the limits of growth”… based on bad ideas of the past—zombie ideas, many derived from Communism, disastrous then and now—that have refused to die…”. Did you notice he lumped together some concepts that are admittedly a bit bonkers (precautionary principle, de-growth, limits of growth) with some concepts that are somewhat debatable (social responsibility, stakeholder capitalism) with some concepts that are politically polarizing but practically anodyne (ESG, Sustainable Development Goals, trust and safety) with some concepts that I would hope any responsible CEO or policymaker consider to be important (existential risk, sustainability, tech ethics, risk management)…. Like Hanania and others, he is trying to insert just enough plausibly absurd ideas so you will accept that the other ideas must be absurd even when that is not obvious at all (oh, and it should be noted that none of these ideas emanated from communism)….“}]},{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“text”:“Let’s get back to Andreessen’s description of the enemy…. “Our enemy is the ivory tower, the know-it-all credentialed expert worldview, indulging in abstract theories, luxury beliefs, social engineering, disconnected from the real world, delusional, unelected, and unaccountable—playing God with everyone else’s lives, with total insulation from the consequences…”. For a guy who claims to absolutely reject resentment, it sure seems like he has packed an awful lot of it into those paragraphs!… “}]},{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“text”:“If Andreessen can’t handle criticism from university professors then he should shut the hell up, retreat to the safe space of his house, and count his billions…. “}]},{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“text”:“If Andreessen’s problem is with techno-skepticism about AI… the call is coming from inside the house. It is pushback from Silicon Valley types, much more than the ivory tower, that is capturing the attention of the media. “}]},{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“text”:“Finally… he fails to discuss the role that liberal democracy plays in a technologically advanced society…”}]}]}]},“restacks”:2,“reaction_count”:11,“attachments”:[{“id”:“c087c605-f106-4326-820b-25bd9196088a”,“type”:“post”,“publication”:{“apple_pay_disabled”:false,“author_id”:46261221,“byline_images_enabled”:true,“bylines_enabled”:true,“chartable_token”:null,“community_enabled”:true,“copyright”:“Daniel W. 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MUST-READ: Engels & Marx as Epigones of Adam Smith the Historical-Materialist Stage Theorist:
Marx and Engels—or, perhaps, Engels and Marx, to the extent that the heart of Marxism is not Capital but rather a combination of Socialism: Utopian & Scientific and The Communist Manifesto—are perhaps seen as people extending Book III of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations, in which Smith analyzes the factors that led to the transition from agrarian-feudal to commercial-parliamentary society, and then characterizes commercial-parliamentary society:
Paul Raekstad: Christopher J Berry: The Idea of Commercial Society in the Scottish Enlightenment: ‘Scottish Enlightenment thinkers developed a conception of emerging commercial or capitalist society as a qualitatively new social formation, distinct from all previous ones, with new potentials for human enrichment and liberation, but also with its own troubles and concerns…. the famous ‘four stages’ theory… is best interpreted as a kind of natural history…. What the Scots brought to the table was identifying a distinct age of commerce, of capitalism… [with] worries that Scottish Enlightenment thinkers had about this last stage of society with regard to… the decline of military virtues and political participation… harmful effects of an ever-more extreme division of labour… and… public credit…. Far from taking for granted a form of market-like atomistic individualism and an inherent tendency towards inter-individual competition… the Scottish enlightenment had a keen awareness of the novelty of the capitalism they saw emerging….
For many Scottish enlightenment thinkers there was a close connection between a theory of history, a certain base-superstructure approach to understanding social institutions, and a kind of realism in prescriptive political theory. Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations… is an excellent example[:]… Four basic ‘stages’ of society defined by their modes of subsistence…. A change in one base mode of subsistence ultimately generates changes in government or polity, as well as changes in customs, law, and much more…. The state does not properly exist in hunter-gatherer societies… Property law only begins… in herding… and greatly expands as societies move through stages…. The appropriate virtues are not the same in a violent herding society and a peaceful commercial one; the best property legislation will look very different for structurally different societies…. The conjunction and reciprocal determination of these three components—i.e., a theory of history, a way of understanding the development of social institutions, and a realist approach to prescriptive political theory—could, I think, offer interesting comparisons with Marxist and certain strands of anarchist thought…
Engels and Marx can then be seen as:
analyzing the factors that led to the transition from commercial-parliamentary to steampower-socialist society, and then
characterizing what that steampower-socialist society would be.
Of course, they jumped the gun.
And, curiously, if I ask web-enabled Chat-GPT to tell me about Friedrich Engels’s conception of steampower-socialist society, it gives him some of the foresight of Red Rosa Luxemburg and Max Weber:
According to Friedrich Engels, the transformation from commercial to steampower society was a historical process that marked the transition from capitalism to socialism. In his work Socialism: Utopian and Scientific, Engels explained how the development of science and technology, especially the invention of the steam engine, revolutionized the mode of production and created the material conditions for a socialist society.
Engels argued that the steampower society shaped society and both enlarged and limited possibilities for human happiness and betterment in several ways:
First, it increased the productive forces and the socialization of labor to an unprecedented level. This enabled the creation of more wealth and goods for human consumption and satisfaction. However, it also created a contradiction between the social character of production and the private ownership of the means of production. This resulted in a crisis of overproduction, exploitation, and class struggle that threatened to destroy the capitalist system.
Second, it stimulated the development of scientific knowledge and rational thinking among the working class. This enabled them to understand the laws of nature and society and to challenge the ideological domination of the ruling class. However, it also created a gap between the intellectual and manual workers, who were separated by the division of labor and education. This resulted in a lack of solidarity and cooperation among the workers and a difficulty in organizing a unified socialist movement1.
Third, it created the possibility of a democratic and internationalist society based on cooperation and equality. This enabled the workers to overthrow the capitalist state and establish a workers’ state that would gradually abolish class distinctions and private property. However, it also created a risk of a violent and bloody revolution that would require a dictatorship of the proletariat to suppress the resistance of the bourgeoisie. This resulted in a danger of corruption, bureaucracy, and authoritarianism that could undermine the socialist ideals1.
Therefore, Engels suggested that the steampower society was not necessarily a progressive or beneficial stage in human history. Instead, it was a transitional stage that brought both opportunities and challenges for human society and well-being…
No. I did not tweak the prompt. Clever Hans is being pretty clever here!
ONE IMAGE: Accelerating Global Warming:
ONE VIDEO: Shaggy & Rayvon: Angel:
Noah Smith: ‘Most people want intimacy from their sexual relations—crave it, in fact. But this terrifies them because it makes them vulnerable. So they try to idolize people who seem to lack that vulnerability—who are “into having sex, not into making love”, as 50 Cent said. A lot of pop music these days is just this—singers proclaiming that they don’t care emotionally about their sexual partners. Americans enjoy this momentary fantasy of not caring, because it lets them imagine a world where they’re emotionally invulnerable…
DeLong: ‘But the whole point of the songs is that the denials of caring are transparently false:
Very Briefly Noted:
War: Ben Rhodes: Gaza: The Cost of Escalation: ‘The consequences of the US’s vengeful reaction to September 11 should remind us of the risks of responding to violence with greater violence…
David French: The Moral Questions at the Heart of the Gaza War: ‘Diyala Province… Al Qaeda in Iraq. In 2008, its weapon of choice was the female suicide bomber…. We defeated the terrorists, and when in doubt our soldiers risked their own lives to protect civilians. The pride and sorrow of those decisions remain with so many of those who served…
Neofascism & Jourtnmalism: Duncan Black: Vibes: ‘Immigration and crime are very similar, in that people care a lot about them when media and the politicians are telling them to, and not so much otherwise (at least given current rates of violent crime, generally). I think that’s even more true with immigration than it used to be. They had to ratchet up the rhetoric. No longer is it simply “people unlike you will be living in your suburb.” It’s all about invading hordes and drug gangs. Have to trumpet those scary caravans that dominate the news in September every even year…
Neofascism: Meidas Touch: ‘Republican Rep. Tom Cole in his nominating speech for Jim Jordan for Speaker says the quiet part out loud. He tells his fellow Republicans to vote for Jordan to cut essential programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid…
Economics: Mike Konczal: Too Many Economists Thought This Was Impossible: ‘The increase in the number of people working has helped tamp down inflation and has shown the importance of aiming for full employment…
Marc Rubenstein: Risk of Ruin: Kelly calculated that if you bet the size of your edge, your bankroll will grow geometrically. He derived a formula that on the flip of a [double-or-nothing] coin, you would bet 2p-1 of your bankroll each time, where p is the probability of winning…
Joachim Klement: On that r-g thing again: ‘If there is one way to reduce our large debt load, it is financial repression and artificially low long-term bond yields…
Science Fiction: Martha Wells: ‘In the late 80s and 90s I was a COBOL programmer… SQL databases… web sites… user support and wrote instructions and documentation…. What really informed Murderbot’s experience was creating a database according to what the users said they needed, and then finding that what they actually needed it to do was something else, and instead of asking for it to be adjusted they cram extra information into the fields and are then surprised when it doesn’t work…. And being yelled at by people who don’t know how to turn their workstation on
Health Care: Matthew Yglesias: Democrats should talk more about healthcare: ‘Biden is doing big things and has more good proposals…. Democrats are dramatically underperforming their potential in terms of talking about healthcare policy and making healthcare debates a salient issue in 2024. As best I can tell, there isn’t really a point person on the White House communications staff dedicated to driving a healthcare message…
NIMBYism: Addison del Mastgro: Strong Towns, Weak Arguments: ‘progressive urbanist Allison Lirish Dean… “The Strong Towns Movement is Simply Right-Libertarianism Dressed in Progressive Garb.”… One guy on Twitter… is not inaccurate: “The article is entirely: this is bad because a guy doesn’t use the meaningless value words I cherish, even though I agree with almost all of what he does. The critiques are almost entirely qualitative rather than substantive”…