BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2023-08-28 Mo
Nvidia’s moment; Assyrian dog pack; hype & reality in contemporary GPT-LLM-ML; very briefly noted; & Golden Gate Lab Rescue, equilibrium-restoring economic forces AWOL, a low-pressure economy is a slow-growing economy, dealing with zombie neoliberal ideas, neolibveralism dead-enders, “causing” vs. “enabling” disinflation, LTCM’s collapse, Dean Baquet & James Comey & many others simply did not do their jobs, & Château Mission Haut-Brion…
MUST-READ: Nvidia’s Moment:
Up through the beginning of Nvidia’s fiscal year 2023, revenue had grown 2.5-fold in two years, driven by the crypto bubble and the usefulness of its chips designed for graphics as the best processors on which to run costly, dissipative, and societal-destructive crypto mining.
Then came the crypto winter. Not only were crypto firms no longer buying Nvidia-designed chips, but crypto firms were ditching their Nvidia-designed chips and selling them back into the graphics market. It was turning out that the crypto bubble had not boosted demand for Nvidia-designed chips, but simply moved demand forward in time by perhaps a year and a half.
By late in its fiscal year 2023 Nvidia looked to be in real trouble—never mind that its chip designers were best-in-class, and that its Cuda framework was clearly the best way for humans to figure out how to get the stone to actually think.
And then came Midjourney and Chat-GPT…
The big questions now are three:
How fast can (or maybe will—lot of short-run monopoly power here) Nvidia (and TSMC) ramp up production of Nvidia-designed chips in order to meet demand?
Can competitors who lack CUDA nevertheless be good enough either to provide an alternative for people pushing modern ML forward?
How large will the modern ML market segment turn out to be?
I do not have any answers to these questions. And, as Friedrich von Hayek pointed out long ago, they are not the kinds of questions that we have enough information for anyone to answer. We have to let the market grope forward to solutions.
But we do know the bull case for NVIDIA and its ecosystem. Here is Ben Thompson summarizing NVIDIA CEO Jason Huang from last May:
Ben Thompson: Nvidia Earnings, Jensen Huang’s Defense, Training Versus Inference: ‘“The CPU[‘s] ability to scale in performance has ended and we need a new approach. Accelerated computing is full stack….” This is correct…. [To] run one job across multiple GPUs… means abstracting complexity up into the software…. “It’s a data-center scale problem….” This is the hardware manifestation of the previous point…. “Accelerated computing is… domain-specific… computational biology, and… computational fluid dynamics are fundamentally different….” This is the software manifestation of the same point: writing parallizable software is very difficult, and… Nvidia has already done a lot of the work…. “After three decades, we realize now that we’re at a tipping point….” You need a virtuous cycle between developers and end users, and it’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem to get started. Huang argues Nvidia has already accomplished that, and I agree with him that this is a big deal….
Huang then gave the example of how much it would cost to train a large language model with CPUs… $10 million dollars for 960 CPU servers consuming 11 GWh for 1 large language model… $400k… [2 GPU servers] 0.13 GWh…. The question, though, is just how many of those single-threaded loads that run on CPUs today can actually be parallelized…. Everyone is annoyed at their Nvidia dependency when it comes to GPUs…. Huang’s argument is that given the importance of software in effectively leveraging those GPUs, it is worth the cost to be a part of the same ecosystem as everyone else, because you will benefit from more improvements instead of having to make them all yourself….
Huang’s arguments are good ones, which is why I thought it was worth laying them all out; the question, though, is just how many loads look like LLM training?… Nvidia is very fortunate that that the generative AI moment happened now, when its chips are clearly superior…. The number of CUDA developers and applications built on Nvidia frameworks are exploding…. There are real skills and models and frameworks being developed now that, I suspect, are more differentiated than… the operating system for Sun Microsystems was…. Long-term differentiation in tech is always rooted in software and ecosystems, even if long-term value-capture has often been rooted in hardware; what makes Nvidia so compelling is that they, like Apple, combine both…
ONE IMAGE: Cry “Havoc!”:
ONE AUDIO: Hype & Reality in Contemporary GPT-LLM-ML:
Ben Thompson: An Interview with Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman about the AI Hype Cycle: ‘I previously spoke to Gross and Friedman last October, December, and March; even with that history, developments in AI are happening so rapidly that we had more than enough topics to discuss, including the AI hype cycle, what products are working, the current state of ChatGPT, the data constraint, and Nvidia…
Very Briefly Noted:
Economics: Luca Fornaro: ‘Monetary contractions depress innovation and future productivity, as predicted by Keynesian growth framework. Really interesting presentation by Yueran Ma…
Adam Ozimek: ‘Land rents destroy the entire agglomeration wage premium. Folks, housing is really, really important right now…
China: Ian Johnson: Xi’s Age of Stagnation: ‘The Great Walling-Off of China…. These economic problems are part of a broader process of political ossification and ideological hardening… signs of a new national stasis, or what Chinese people call neijuan…
GPT-LLM-ML: Paul Kedrosky: AI Isn’t Good Enough: ‘Current-generation AI is mostly crap…. We need much better AI. Or we need much worse AI…. Much worse AI would have minimal worker displacement effects, making it less economically fraught…. We need to look past the limits of current AI… to break free from… so-so automation and compensate for the gravitational forces dragging the U.S. workforce into that wormhole…
Optimism of the Will: Jamelle Bouie: ‘I have a whole monologue about… the antislavery movement as… doing the work with no expectation of ever seeing it come to fruition…. Take the subjectivity of the past seriously and understand that an abolitionist in 1830, to just pick a year, has NO EXPECTATION THAT THEY WILL EVER LIVE TO SEE THE END OF THE SLAVE SYSTEM…
Journamalism: Duncan Black: Freeze Peach: ‘We really don’t mock this New York Times editorial enough: “Americans are losing hold of a fundamental right as citizens of a free country: the right to speak their minds and voice their opinions in public without fear of being shamed or shunned…” Imagine thinking anything these pickle-brained people say is worth listening to after that…
Will Bunch: Journalism fails miserably at explaining what is really happening to America: ‘GOP debate, Trump’s arrest gets ‘horse race’ coverage when the story’s… about…authoritarianism… None of the eight people on that stage “won”—only Trump, his angry mob, and a 21st-century brand of American fascism that is the enemy of democracy…
The Crypto Grift: Franck Leroy: ‘Exactly 14 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed the most pathetic / inefficient system ever invented… blockchain… weighs 60,000 tons, wastes constantly 10 gigawatts (more than Belgium or Chile) to process less than 7 transactions per second… a joke if it didn’t have such gigantic environmental impact, wasn’t enabling billion dollars ransomware industry…
Ukraine War: Phillips P. OBrien: ‘Now that the Kremlin has confirmed the death of Prigozhin, we can categorically say the decision of the Ukrainians to fight for Bakhmut (which ended up devastating Wagner) was… right…. They decided to do it to cause maximum casualties to the Russians. It was these casualties (intended) which caused the Wagner crisis…
Fascism: National Security Archive: The Coup In Chile: CIA Releases Top Secret 9/11/1973 President’s Daily Brief…
NOTES & Substantive Posts:
Up through the beginning of Nvidia’s fiscal year 2023, revenue had grown 2.5-fold in two years, driven by the crypto bubble and the usefulness of its chips designed for graphics as the best processors on which to run costly, dissipative, and societal-destructive crypto mining.
Then came the crypto winter. Not only were crypto firms no longer buying Nvidia-designed chips, but crypto firms were ditching their Nvidia-designed chips and selling them back into the graphics market. It was turning out that the crypto bubble had not boosted demand for Nvidia-designed chips, but simply moved demand forward in time by perhaps a year and a half. And by late in its fiscal year 2023 Nvidia looked to be in real trouble—never mind that its chip designers were best-in-class, and that its Cuda framework was clearly the best way for humans to figure out how to get the stone to actually think.
And then came Midjourney and Chat-GPT:
Golden Gate Lab Rescue of San Franciso wants pictures for their 2022 calendar. I offered them nine:
How Strong Are þe Economy’s Equilibrium-Restoring Forces?:
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Microsoft’s argument for why it should be allowed to buy Activision-Blizzard is that that is the only way it can possibly compete with Sony. It is the “sumo wrestler” theory of antitrust—letting the #2 player in a market bulk up is the best way to diminish the market power that really matters, which is the market power of #1:
: ‘The software giant outmaneuvered regulators to shift its fortunes in the $69 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard…. Much of the opposition to Microsoft’s monster offer for Activision came from Sony, whose Playstation is the No. 1 gaming console worldwide, ahead of Microsoft’s Xbox…\n\nThe FTC’s argument against this is that Microsoft is probably looking further down the game tree and while the merger may not give Microsoft more market power now, it may well serve as a springboard for gaining market power in the future in a way that is not obvious now.\n\nNormally, I would say: Microsoft thinks it needs a much better game studio to compete with Sony? Then let it spend money like water to build that extra game studio, and let Activision-Blizzard continue to do its thing.\n\nBut I am not certain about this position. The thing that gives me most pause has been Sony’s extraordinary willingness to lobby against the merger.“,“body_json”:{“type”:“doc”,“attrs”:{“schemaVersion”:“v1”},“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“Microsoft’s argument for why it should be allowed to buy Activision-Blizzard is that that is the only way it can possibly compete with Sony. It is the “sumo wrestler” theory of antitrust—letting the #2 player in a market bulk up is the best way to diminish the market power that really matters, which is the market power of #1:“}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“blockquote”,“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”}],“text”:“Leah Nylen, Dina Bass, & Katharine Gemmell”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: How the Microsoft-Activision Deal Came Back From the Dead <“},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”www.bloomberg.com/news/arti…”,“target”:”_blank”,“class”:“note-link”}}],“text”:”www.bloomberg.com/news/arti…”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“>: ‘The software giant outmaneuvered regulators to shift its fortunes in the $69 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard…. Much of the opposition to Microsoft’s monster offer for Activision came from Sony, whose Playstation is the No. 1 gaming console worldwide, ahead of Microsoft’s Xbox…”}]}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“The FTC’s argument against this is that Microsoft is probably looking further down the game tree and while the merger may not give Microsoft more market power now, it may well serve as a springboard for gaining market power in the future in a way that is not obvious now.”}]},{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“Normally, I would say: Microsoft thinks it needs a much better game studio to compete with Sony? Then let it spend money like water to build that extra game studio, and let Activision-Blizzard continue to do its thing.“}]},{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“But I am not certain about this position. The thing that gives me most pause has been Sony’s extraordinary willingness to lobby against the merger.”}]}]},“restacks”:0,“reaction_count”:0,“attachments”:[{“id”:“4ae833ca-c87b-48d7-b059-c9f46dbe9953”,“type”:“link”,“linkMetadata”:{“image”:“https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i4d6Gdgk_N.E/v1/1200x800.jpg","title":"How the Microsoft-Activision Deal Came Back From the Dead”,“description”:“The software giant outmaneuvered regulators to shift its fortunes in the $69 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard.”,“url”:”www.bloomberg.com/news/arti…”,“host”:“bloomberg.com”}}],“name”:“Brad DeLong”,“user_id”:16879,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
A low-pressure economy is a slow-growing economy:
: After a tightening shock of 100 basis points, research and development… spending declines by about 1 to 3 percent and venture capital (VC) investment declines by about 25 percent in the following 1 to 3 years. Patenting… declines by up to 9 percent in the following 2 to 4 years…. Output could be 1 percent lower after another 5 years…\n\nYou can move in either of two ways in response to these facts. First, you can say that preserving central bank credibility as an inflation fighter is absolutely key, because in equilibrium any lack of central bank credibility requires a higher unemployment rate and a lower-pressure economy on average in order to keep inflation stable at wherever it winds up. Second, you can say that central banks should be very cautious about hitting the economy on the head with a large monetary-austerity brick, because that will produce not only short term depression, but long-term sluggish growth. Both of these ways in which you can move are justifiable.“,“body_json”:{“type”:“doc”,“attrs”:{“schemaVersion”:“v1”},“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“A low-pressure economy is a slow-growing economy:“}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“blockquote”,“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”}],“text”:“Yueran Ma & Kaspar Zimmermann”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: Monetary Policy and Innovation <“},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”braddelong.substack.com/api/v1/fi…”,“target”:”_blank”,“class”:“note-link”}}],“text”:”braddelong.substack.com/api/v1/fi…”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“>: After a tightening shock of 100 basis points, research and development… spending declines by about 1 to 3 percent and venture capital (VC) investment declines by about 25 percent in the following 1 to 3 years. Patenting… declines by up to 9 percent in the following 2 to 4 years…. Output could be 1 percent lower after another 5 years…”}]}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“You can move in either of two ways in response to these facts. First, you can say that preserving central bank credibility as an inflation fighter is absolutely key, because in equilibrium any lack of central bank credibility requires a higher unemployment rate and a lower-pressure economy on average in order to keep inflation stable at wherever it winds up. Second, you can say that central banks should be very cautious about hitting the economy on the head with a large monetary-austerity brick, because that will produce not only short term depression, but long-term sluggish growth. Both of these ways in which you can move are justifiable.”}]}]},“restacks”:0,“reaction_count”:2,“attachments”:[],“name”:“Brad DeLong”,“user_id”:16879,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
DRAFT: How Can We Deal wiþ Zombie Neoliberal Ideas:
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this point, mostly virtual—have been filling up with books whose titles contain phrases like: “Fall of the Neoliberal Order”, ’Ruins of Neoliberalism“, ”What Was Neoliberalism?“, ”Then World After Neoliberalism“, ”The Downfall of Neoliberalism\“, and so forth.”,“wordcount”:1079,“postTags”:[],“publishedBylines”:[{“id”:16879,“name”:“Brad DeLong”,“handle”:“delongonsubstack”,“previous_name”:null,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","bio":"Author of Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the 20th Century, sometime Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, too online since 1995, UC Berkeley economic historian”,“profile_set_up_at”:“2021-04-22T17:45:51.845Z”,“publicationUsers”:[{“id”:14551,“user_id”:16879,“publication_id”:47874,“role”:“admin”,“public”:true,“is_primary”:false,“publication”:{“id”:47874,“name”:“Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality”,“subdomain”:“braddelong”,“custom_domain”:null,“custom_domain_optional”:false,“hero_text”:“Economic history, economics, political economy, finance, & forecasting. Here to try to make you (and me) smarter in a world with many increasingly deep & complicated troubles…“,“logo_url”:“https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fde2453e-9c18-4560-82ca-8b77ae62ef5b_1280x1280.png","author_id":16879,"theme_var_background_pop":"#2096ff","created_at":"2020-05-20T03:47:08.732Z","rss_website_url":null,"email_from_name":"Brad DeLong, from Grasping Reality Newsletter”,“copyright”:“Brad DeLong”,“founding_plan_name”:“Angels”,“community_enabled”:true,“invite_only”:false,“payments_state”:“enabled”}}],“twitter_screen_name”:“delong”,“is_guest”:false,“bestseller_tier”:100,“primary_publication”:{“id”:47874,“subdomain”:“braddelong”,“custom_domain_optional”:false,“name”:“Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality”,“logo_url”:“https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fde2453e-9c18-4560-82ca-8b77ae62ef5b_1280x1280.png","author_id":16879,"handles_enabled":false}}],"reaction":false,"reaction_count":34,"comment_count":18,"child_comment_count":9,"audio_items":[{"post_id":136435401,"voice_id":"en-US-JennyNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/136435401/tts/en-US-JennyNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"hasCashtag":false,"is_saved":false,"saved_at":null,"is_viewed":true,"restacked":false}}],"name":"Brad DeLong”,“user_id”:16879,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
Adrienne Mayor, still in the Other Place That No Longer Has a Proper Name:
I must say, these are bizarre habits of thought we see here. Xi Jinping’s embrace of a “no limits” partnership with his fellow dictator Vladimir Putin followed by Putin’s attack on Russia leaves a prudent U.S. with no option but to try to slow China’s military rise—with China’s economic rise as collateral damage. For the Economist to complain about this makes me think it really needs to get a clue:
: ‘The Biden doctrine… muddles legitimate policies with America-first rule-bending. Mr Sullivan wants to combine export controls with co-operative trade, and an arms race with collaboration. But China’s leaders think this strategy is meant to keep China down…”,“body_json”:{“type”:“doc”,“attrs”:{“schemaVersion”:“v1”},“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“I must say, these are bizarre habits of thought we see here. Xi Jinping’s embrace of a “no limits” partnership with his fellow dictator Vladimir Putin followed by Putin’s attack on Russia leaves a prudent U.S. with no option but to try to slow China’s military rise—with China’s economic rise as collateral damage. For the Economist to complain about this makes me think it really needs to get a clue:“}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“blockquote”,“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”}],“text”:“Economist”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: Joe Biden’s global vision is too timid and pessimistic <“},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”www.economist.com/leaders/2…”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”www.economist.com/leaders/2…”}}]},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“>: ‘The Biden doctrine… muddles legitimate policies with America-first rule-bending. Mr Sullivan wants to combine export controls with co-operative trade, and an arms race with collaboration. But China’s leaders think this strategy is meant to keep China down…”}]}]}]},“restacks”:0,“reaction_count”:0,“attachments”:[{“id”:“6855574d-55f6-4661-826d-16b7645c4b22”,“type”:“link”,“linkMetadata”:{“image”:“https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/720/90/media-assets/image/20230520_LDD001.jpg","title":"Joe Biden’s global vision is too timid and pessimistic”,“description”:“The president underestimates America’s strengths and misunderstands how it acquired them”,“url”:”www.economist.com/leaders/2…”,“host”:“economist.com”}}],“name”:“Brad DeLong”,“user_id”:16879,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
![https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/720/90/media-assets/image/20230520_LDD001.jpg","title":"Joe](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/720/90/media-assets/image/20230520_LDD001.jpg","title":"Joe){kind=link}
I do not grok this distinction between actions that “cause” disinflation, and actions that do not “cause” disinflation but instead were merely “necessary to permit disinflation caused by other forces. Perhaps there is a philosopher in the house who could elucidate this for me?
looks a lot like official inflation data… a sharp rise in 2021-22, then a steep fall that has brought us most, but not quite all, of the way back…. Small businesses are unlikely to be parsing Fed statements and making pricing decisions based on their perceptions of Fed credibility…. If you… believe… the Fed is driving inflation down by weakening the economy… in ways that aren’t showing in official data, well, that weakness isn’t showing in business perceptions…. This really doesn’t sound like an economy in which businesses are forgoing price hikes because of weak demand…. It sounds like an economy in which inflation is coming down because of improved supply, not reduced demand…. [Was] the Fed… wrong to raise rates? Not necessarily. If it hadn’t raised rates, the economy might be running really, really hot…. The Fed may not have caused disinflation, but rate hikes may have been necessary to permit disinflation caused by other forces…. I’d urge economists to look up from their models now and then and remember that they’re talking about people. Oh, and let’s celebrate the good inflation news, whoever we think should get the credit…”,“body_json”:{“type”:“doc”,“attrs”:{“schemaVersion”:“v1”},“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“I do not grok this distinction between actions that “cause” disinflation, and actions that do not “cause” disinflation but instead were merely “necessary to permit disinflation caused by other forces. Perhaps there is a philosopher in the house who could elucidate this for me?”}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“blockquote”,“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”}],“text”:“Paul Krugman”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: ‘The NFIB survey <“},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?CCPAOptOut=true&campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20230818&instance_id=100393&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK®i_id=64675225&segment_id=142385&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/06d95fc8-046b-5f56-b7b6-6afe0ff9ec57&user_id=8a3fce2ae25b5435f449ab64b4e3e880","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?CCPAOptOut=true&campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20230818&instance_id=100393&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK®i_id=64675225&segment_id=142385&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/06d95fc8-046b-5f56-b7b6-6afe0ff9ec57&user_id=8a3fce2ae25b5435f449ab64b4e3e880"}}]},{"type":"text","text":"> looks a lot like official inflation data… a sharp rise in 2021-22, then a steep fall that has brought us most, but not quite all, of the way back…. Small businesses are unlikely to be parsing Fed statements and making pricing decisions based on their perceptions of Fed credibility…. If you… believe… the Fed is driving inflation down by weakening the economy… in ways that aren’t showing in official data, well, that weakness isn’t showing in business perceptions…. This really doesn’t sound like an economy in which businesses are forgoing price hikes because of weak demand…. It sounds like an economy in which inflation is coming down because of improved supply, not reduced demand…. [Was] the Fed… wrong to raise rates? Not necessarily. If it hadn’t raised rates, the economy might be running really, really hot…. The Fed may not have caused disinflation, but rate hikes may have been necessary to permit disinflation caused by other forces…. I’d urge economists to look up from their models now and then and remember that they’re talking about people. Oh, and let’s celebrate the good inflation news, whoever we think should get the credit…”}]}]}]},“restacks”:0,“reaction_count”:0,“attachments”:[{“id”:“40903a30-af5a-4e44-bbe3-9a1d0b9c2772”,“type”:“link”,“linkMetadata”:{“image”:”static01.nyt.com/images/20…”,“title”:“Wonking out: Jerome Powell, mind controller?“,“description”:null,“url”:“https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?CCPAOptOut=true&campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20230818&instance_id=100393&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK®i_id=64675225&segment_id=142385&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/06d95fc8-046b-5f56-b7b6-6afe0ff9ec57&user_id=8a3fce2ae25b5435f449ab64b4e3e880","host":"messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com"}}],"name":"Brad DeLong”,“user_id”:16879,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
More people should be subscribving to Marc Rubinstein than are. Here he is on LTCM, which collapsed 25 years ago.
There is a sense in which MacKenzie is wrong: classes of “events” periodically happen, and if you are so leveraged that a mere “event” of the class that periodically happen would bankrupt you, you will go bankrupt and it is somewhat silly to look for any other root cause than leverage. The “event” determines the timing of bankruptcy. It does not determine the fact of bankruptcy.
In my view, investing in illiquid assets was equally important to leverage in determining the fact (if not the timing) of bankruptcy. As Rubinstein writes: ‘illiquid markets gave counterparties leeway in how to mark positions, and they used the opportunity to mark against LTCM to the widest extent possible so that they would be able to claim collateral to mitigate against a possible default’. And so LTCM went bankrupt, even though there was no way it was insolvent. Why couldn’t it raise capital and survive, if it was solvent? Because its principles were greedy—they thought Warren Buffett’s offer of $250 million was too low, turned it down, and got nothing:
: ‘The (real) reasons Long-Term Capital Management failed…. Donald MacKenzie, a professor of sociology, notes <www.jamesgoulding.com/Research_….pdf>, “Blaming LTCM’s crisis on leverage is rather like attributing a plane crash to the fact that the aircraft was no longer safely in contact with the ground: it identifies a necessary, but in no sense a sufficient, cause. Leverage at best explains the fund’s vulnerability to the events of August and September 1998, but does not itself explain those events.”… Illiquid markets gave counterparties leeway in how to mark positions, and they used the opportunity to mark against LTCM to the widest extent possible so that they would be able to claim collateral to mitigate against a possible default…. Buffett… offer[ed] to buy out LTCM…. But… could not be reached for clarification…. After the consortium acquired a 90% equity stake in LTCM’s portfolio together with operational control, the… portfolio took 15 months to liquidate and the participating banks ended up making a 10% return on their investment…”,“body_json”:{“type”:“doc”,“attrs”:{“schemaVersion”:“v1”},“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“More people should be subscribving to Marc Rubinstein than are. Here he is on LTCM, which collapsed 25 years ago.”}]},{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“There is a sense in which MacKenzie is wrong: classes of “events” periodically happen, and if you are so leveraged that a mere “event” of the class that periodically happen would bankrupt you, you will go bankrupt and it is somewhat silly to look for any other root cause than leverage. The “event” determines the timing of bankruptcy. It does not determine the fact of bankruptcy. “}]},{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“In my view, investing in illiquid assets was equally important to leverage in determining the fact (if not the timing) of bankruptcy. As Rubinstein writes: ‘illiquid markets gave counterparties leeway in how to mark positions, and they used the opportunity to mark against LTCM to the widest extent possible so that they would be able to claim collateral to mitigate against a possible default’. And so LTCM went bankrupt, even though there was no way it was insolvent. Why couldn’t it raise capital and survive, if it was solvent? Because its principles were greedy—they thought Warren Buffett’s offer of $250 million was too low, turned it down, and got nothing”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: “}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“blockquote”,“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”}],“text”:“Marc Rubinstein”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: LTCM: 25 Years On <“},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”www.netinterest.co/p/ltcm-25…”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”www.netinterest.co/p/ltcm-25…”}}]},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“>: ‘The (real) reasons Long-Term Capital Management failed…. Donald MacKenzie, a professor of sociology, notes <“},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”www.jamesgoulding.com/Research_….pdf”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”www.jamesgoulding.com/Research_….pdf”}}]},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“>, “Blaming LTCM’s crisis on leverage is rather like attributing a plane crash to the fact that the aircraft was no longer safely in contact with the ground: it identifies a necessary, but in no sense a sufficient, cause. Leverage at best explains the fund’s vulnerability to the events of August and September 1998, but does not itself explain those events.”… Illiquid markets gave counterparties leeway in how to mark positions, and they used the opportunity to mark against LTCM to the widest extent possible so that they would be able to claim collateral to mitigate against a possible default…. Buffett… offer[ed] to buy out LTCM…. But… could not be reached for clarification…. After the consortium acquired a 90% equity stake in LTCM’s portfolio together with operational control, the… portfolio took 15 months to liquidate and the participating banks ended up making a 10% return on their investment…”}]}]}]},“restacks”:0,“reaction_count”:0,“attachments”:[],“name”:“Brad DeLong”,“user_id”:16879,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
In nearly all postmortems of the 2016 election there is one very important factor that almost always gets short shift: To a remarkably large degree, Hilary Rodham Clinton was weak in 2016 because she was strong. Lots of non-Republicans in 2012 saw Obama’s 2008 victory as largely a result of the then-ongoing financial crisis. They feared that Romney, a serious guy, had a serious chance. And so they ran through the tape working for Obama.
By contrast, a great number of worthies saw America in 2016 as less sexist than racist and thought HRC had it in the bag. Hence they were eager to nip at her heels in order to better position themselves for what they thought would be the HRC administration. They did not do their jobs. I am thinking primarily of you, James Comey; and of you, Dean Baquet. But there were lots of others as well.
Had HRC not had a constant polling lead since the end of the conventions, I think her odds would have been better, because I do not think Baquet and Comey and the rest of their clown posse would have dared act like they in fact did:
: ‘Shifts among white voters without a college degree towards Trump are much better predicted by racial resentment <onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/1…> than economic situation. The white backlash to Obama’s election certainly radicalized the Tea Party and the GOP in general…. Race and immigration were much more prominent issues in 2016… [because] Trump had an unabashedly racist approach to politics which heightened the salience of these issues…. Black Lives Matter… brought police brutality and race into the national conversation in a way it had not been previously…. In 2008, Sean Quinn wrote an article <fivethirtyeight.com/features/…> about Western Pennsylvania voters in which he quotes… “Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: ‘We’re voting for the n—-er’.” Without the pressures of the Great Recession and the outsider appeal of Obama, Clinton floundered among these voters. Donald Trump, with his brash racism and prejudice, was a much better fit for this type of voter than Romney…”,“body_json”:{“type”:“doc”,“attrs”:{“schemaVersion”:“v1”},“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“In nearly all postmortems of the 2016 election there is one very important factor that almost always gets short shift: To a remarkably large degree, Hilary Rodham Clinton was weak in 2016because she was strong. Lots of non-Republicans in 2012 saw Obama’s 2008 victory as largely a result of the then-ongoing financial crisis. They feared that Romney, a serious guy, had a serious chance. And so they ran through the tape working for Obama. “}]},{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“By contrast, a great number of worthies saw America in 2016 as less sexist than racist and thought HRC had it in the bag. Hence they were eager to nip at her heels in order to better position themselves for what they thought would be the HRC administration. They did not do their jobs. I am thinking primarily of you, James Comey; and of you, Dean Baquet. But there were lots of others as well.”}]},{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“italic”}],“text”:“Had HRC not had a constant polling lead since the end of the conventions, I think her odds would have been better, because I do not think Baquet and Comey and the rest of their clown posse would have dared act like they in fact did:“}]},{“type”:“paragraph”},{“type”:“blockquote”,“content”:[{“type”:“paragraph”,“content”:[{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“bold”}],“text”:“Athena”},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”: A Connecticut Yankee in Western North Carolina <“},{“type”:“text”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:“https://brighteyedessays.substack.com/p/a-connecticut-yankee-in-wnc?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fshifts%2520among&utm_medium=reader2","target":"_blank","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://brighteyedessays.substack.com/p/a-connecticut-yankee-in-wnc?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fshifts%2520among&utm_medium=reader2"},{"type":"text","text":">: ‘Shifts among white voters without a college degree towards Trump are much better predicted by racial resentment <“},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/1…”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/1…”}}]},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“> than economic situation. The white backlash to Obama’s election certainly radicalized the Tea Party and the GOP in general…. Race and immigration were much more prominent issues in 2016… [because] Trump had an unabashedly racist approach to politics which heightened the salience of these issues…. Black Lives Matter… brought police brutality and race into the national conversation in a way it had not been previously…. In 2008, Sean Quinn wrote an article <“},{“type”:“text”,“text”:”fivethirtyeight.com/features/…”,“marks”:[{“type”:“link”,“attrs”:{“href”:”fivethirtyeight.com/features/…”}}]},{“type”:“text”,“text”:“> about Western Pennsylvania voters in which he quotes… “Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: ‘We’re voting for the n—-er’.” Without the pressures of the Great Recession and the outsider appeal of Obama, Clinton floundered among these voters. Donald Trump, with his brash racism and prejudice, was a much better fit for this type of voter than Romney…”}]}]}]},“restacks”:0,“reaction_count”:0,“attachments”:[{“id”:“d844bd57-dcf5-4dd3-8bda-870ad32d9577”,“type”:“link”,“linkMetadata”:{“image”:”fivethirtyeight.com/wp-conten…”,“title”:“On the Road: Western Pennsylvania”,“description”:““I walked five miles to get out of Pittsburgh, and two rides, an apple truck and a big trailer truck, took me to Harrisburg in the soft Indian-summer rainy nigh…”,“url”:”fivethirtyeight.com/features/…”,“host”:“fivethirtyeight.com”}}],“name”:“Brad DeLong”,“user_id”:16879,“photo_url”:“https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
My mother-in-law is 70! Bottle not from the Bordeaux region vineyard name-checked by English bureaucrat Samuel Pepys in his diary in the 1600s during the reign of the Merry Monarch Charles II Stuart, but from the vineyard next door…