BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-11-03 Fr
The XReal Air as spatial computing at 1/10 the cost of the Vision Pro; Matthew Klein fears the Fed is doing too little; Barry Ritholtz says PHEV’s are the sweet spot for his family; Josh Barro on professors who stalk and need help; every single person who confuses correlation and causation ends up dying; making Apple Computer’s “Scary Fast” event; very briefly noted; & a 21st-century Grand Narrative, Chat-GPT as Clever Hans, & briefly noted for 2023-10-31 Tu…
SubStack NOTES:
https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/02/the-iphone-15s-best-friend-is-an-ultra-budget-stripped-down-version-of-apple-vision-pro/","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/02/the-iphone-15s-best-friend-is-an-ultra-budget-stripped-down-version-of-apple-vision-pro/"},{"type":"text","text":">: ‘Glasses that are priced at between $300 and $500, and that are more accurately described as glasses with very nice, very small built-in projector screens…. By default, it should just mirror your phone… but for video streaming apps specifically that support video out, you’ll get a screen-filing landscape orientation video once you jump into streaming an actual show or movie. It’s also a fantastic accessory for playing games… and it’s honestly not bad for browsing the web…. This is the sleight-of-hand version of what Apple’s going to deliver with the Vision Pro: more parlor trick than paradigm shift. But at around a tenth of the cost, available right now, and with a bunch of the everyday features you’d want from a spatial computer you can actually carry with you everywhere, and a much lighter and more discreet form factor, it’s probably a better option for most people—even when the Vision Pro does arrive next year…"}]}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":0,"attachments":[{"id":"3fba54d5-c2b8-4cea-93fd-90303f6cd5e0","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9b39d9a4-82d8-44f5-9ab2-007432637a97_1200x675.jpeg","title":"The iPhone 15’s best friend is an ultra-budget, stripped-down version of Apple Vision Pro | TechCrunch","description":"The iPhone 15 has a new superpower: USB-C video out. It works great with AR glasses like the Xreal Air for portable, immersive display options.","url":"https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/02/the-iphone-15s-best-friend-is-an-ultra-budget-stripped-down-version-of-apple-vision-pro/","host":"techcrunch.com"},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":100}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
Economics: Klein thinks that there have been big changes in the past few years in income distribution, private-sector balance sheets, and fiscal policy that have substantially and permanently raised the neutral interest rate r. I see the case for private-sector balance sheets—but I see that as a temporary, plague-time income support factor that is now ebbing. How fast it is ebbing is a big question, and if it is ebbing slowly than Klein has a strong case. But otherwise? Fiscal policy and income distribution? I cannot make those work in terms of the magnitudes. If r is permanently up, it is for other causes. The big question I face right now is: am I fighting the last war in my desire to take extra steps to reduce the chances that secular stagnation forces will land us back at the zero lower bound?:
https://theovershoot.co/p/is-the-fed-peaking-too-soon","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://theovershoot.co/p/is-the-fed-peaking-too-soon"},{"type":"text","text":">: ‘The risk is that nominal spending will continue to rise faster than officials prefer…. The main challenge is calibrating policy to keep the good times going. Market prices imply that this will require short-term interest rates to fall in the near future…. It seems at least as plausible that the risk goes the other way. It is at least as plausible that current policy is actually closer to “neutral” thanks to persistent changes in the income distribution, private sector balance sheets, and fiscal policy over the past few years…. While there has been a significant deceleration in the rate of price increases from around 6% a year to 3% a year, the growth rate of the dollar value of spending and incomes has slowed by much less… translat[ing] into a massive acceleration in the growth rate of Americans’ living standards…. But while I, like Larry Summers, think that sustained 6% nominal income growth would be desirable for many reasons, it is not obvious that this would be consistent with 2% yearly inflation over time. Even if it were, trend nominal growth at that pace does not seem consistent with average short rates of only ~4.5%…"}]}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":0,"attachments":[{"id":"34de6828-3bef-4976-8828-77b337fdfbd7","type":"post","publication":{"apple_pay_disabled":false,"author_id":464622,"byline_images_enabled":true,"bylines_enabled":true,"chartable_token":null,"community_enabled":true,"copyright":"Matthew C. 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Global Warming: But… but… but… the engineering of a PHEV is more complicated than that of an EV—you have to have and to switch back-and-forth to a gasoline engine, plus you need a transmission. So how in the Holy Name of the Storm God of the Semites can PHEV’s be a better value proposition for anyone who lives where the charging infrastructure is already there? I do not understand this:
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Public Unreason: I think Josh Barro has it right with respect to this particular issue ongoing at Berkeley right now. I do not endorse all of his generalizations from this issue to the general shape of the Cosmic All, but I hesitate to disagree with him, because he is as smart and, in this set of issues, more perceptive than I am:
www.joshbarro.com/p/identit…","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.joshbarro.com/p/identit…"},{"type":"text","text":">: ‘On Saturday, before the football game between USC and UC Berkeley, fifteen protesters rushed the field… delaying the start of the game… demanding the reinstatement of… Ivonne del Valle… [who] stalked and harassed Prof. Joshua Clover, a communist poet in the English department at UC Davis… having admitted… that she keyed Clover’s car; sat outside his apartment and slid threatening notes under the door including “If you make me leave, it’ll be worse. I’ll keep doing this you can be sure of that”; spray painted “here lives a pervert” in the hallway outside his apartment; and dumped chunks of fermented pineapple on his mother’s doorstep…. Holly McDede describes a conversation with one of del Valle’s supporters, a graduate student named Alejandra Decker… “[who said] she… still stand[s] by del Valle, and that it’s not her place to judge a woman’s actions when in turmoil and isolated. ‘Those reports—anyone who reads them, I think we can all admit that they are difficult to read because they paint Professor Ivonne in a way that personally I’ve never seen’, Decker said. ‘It’s a woman’s actions in her biggest moments of survival’…"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"It seems to me that Professor del Valle ought to admit to a serious mental health problem and seek an accomodation under the ADA. 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It seems to me that Professor del Valle ought to admit to a serious mental health problem and seek an accommodation under the ADA. But it looks like she is not sane enough to do that.
ONE IMAGE: Statistics!
ONE VIDEO: Behind the Scenes at Scary Fast:
Very Briefly Noted:
Economics: Alexandra Scaggs: Bond markets are doing the Fed’s work: ‘A decent amount of it too, it seems…. Exactly how much tightening comes from the rise in long-dated Treasury yields? Deutsche Bank provides an estimate today, arguing that the sell-off it has done the work of approximately “three 25-bp rate increases.”… So the Fed can rest a bit easier, at least unless (or until?) a comparably violent market move sends yields the other direction…
Tassia Sipahutar: Soaring Yields: ‘Janet Yellen said the surge in longer-term bond yields in recent months is a reflection of a strong US economy, not the jump in government borrowing…. The increase… is instead “largely a reflection of the resilience people are seeing in the economy,” she said at an event in Bloomberg’s Washington office Thursday. Meanwhile, some investors say it’s safe to start buying bonds again with yields above 5%…
Justin Wolfers: ‘Riddle me this: How can people be most concerned about “the economy & inflation,” and “a potential U.S. recession,” but barely worried about “losing my job”…
Public Reason: Robert Shrimsley: The perils of an unquestioning ‘album culture’ in politics: ‘Labour’s row over the Israel-Hamas war… forcing an entire set of positions on supporters of both left and right…. In politics it is ever more difficult to choose a single, you are required to buy the whole album. While this is primarily an activist trait, it bleeds into the wider mainstream movement—influencing and shaping priorities…
War: Andreas Kluth: The Biden Doctrine: Show Strength, Whisper Restraint: ‘The US will support its allies, from Israel and Ukraine to the Philippines, Taiwan and South Korea. It just doesn’t want to become their hostage…. If there’s an emerging Biden doctrine, it might be a twist on Teddy Roosevelt’s famous phrase: Carry a big stick, and whisper restraint to your allies…
The Editorial Board: The catastrophe unfolding in Gaza: ‘Israel must stop the bombing, and allow more aid into the besieged strip…
CryptoGrifts: Molly White: Sam Bankman-Fried doesn’t recall: ‘With few promising defense strategies… Bankman-Fried seems to have chosen… amnesia…. Capable during his direct testimony of recalling fairly mundane events from… his intern days… his memory suddenly failed him when it came to far more recent, highly important, and (you would think) memorable moments…
Ed Zitron: A Billion-Dollar Fraud In Plain Sight: ‘Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss are villains… [who] intentionally and willfully misled customers… chose to launch a program that their own risk management team believed was riskier than other partners…. The… so-called “self regulators” of crypto, built a reputation as the trustworthy party in a lawless industry, only to use it as a means to make a paltry $22 million in agent fees and $10 million in commission…
Neofascism: Steve M.: Notice Which Right-Wing Hot-Button Issues the New Speaker Isn’t Raising as He Holds Israel Aid Hostage: ‘Mike Johnson… aid to Israel… will come at a cost… as if the MAGA era hadn’t happened and the most dangerous gatherings in America were still Koch network retreats and not Trump rallies…. We’re going to be surprised at how pre-Trump the party will seem once Trump is gone—nd not in a good way…. Republican officeholders and candidates, and they’d be very happy to take us right back… with Trumpism overlaid because it increases the number of potential rage-inducers that inspire the GOP base to turn out…
Moore’s Law Continues: Marco Arment: ‘First plausible M3 tests are hitting Geekbench, presumably from press-review units: browser.geekbench.com/search Single/multi-core: M3: ~3000/~11,700 (if these are real). M2: ~2600/~9700. M1: ~2300/~8300. Looks great! A 30–40% improvement over three years is remarkable, especially for such a low-power and low-cost chip. (No Pro or Max scores yet)…