BIWEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-05 Th
My biweekly read-around…
Clearing-out some tabs I want to write something longer about, but do not have time to do so…
ONE AUDIO: An Absolutely Glorious Rant by Ben Thompson on the Incompetence of Intel’s Board: “Disgusting for Twenty Years”:
&, I think, 100% correct. Addressed to the appreciative audience of Anderw Sharp. At 50:40:
A closer look at Intel’s fall from grace in the wake of CEO Pat Gelsinger’s sudden retirement and with the company facing a fresh round of questions about its future. Topics include: Ben’s overview of a 20-year run of paradigm shifts and strategic missteps, Gelsinger’s strengths and weaknesses, CHIPS Act funds and a looming inflection point, and the murky path forward for American made chips…
Ben’s basic point is that Intel’s troubles starting in 2021 were the result of decisions and missteps taken in 2011, and will require a timespan of the same order to correct. To hire Gelsinger as CEO, declare that you are 100% behind him, and then can him after 3 ½ years, blaming him for his failure to have done the impossible in a short time period—that is just malpractice. I can see a case for revisiting Gelsinger’s plans at the end of 2025, after Intel 18A is well-launched and we have something of a market verdict on it. But that is fully a year away.
You can argue—and Ben does—that the board should not have hired Gelsinger 3 ½ years ago because the task he thought he could accomplish was in fact impossible. You can argue—and I do—that Gelsinger’s plan was (probably) bad for shareholders, good for stakeholders as a whole, a wonderful thing for the country, and the best thing that could be done with Intel for the world. But in either case—or if you think Gelsinger’s plan was probably good for shareholders as well—once in, you are in. In the (perhaps apocryphal) words of Napoléon Bonaparte: “if you set out to take Vienna, take Vienna!”
ANOTHER AUDIO: Verge Decoder: AI Is a Money Pit!:
…Yet investors do not mind: Alex Heath, Tim Tully, & Nathan Beniach discuss:
The most ambitious and costly gamble the tech industry has arguably ever made… artificial intelligence… the idea that one day soon big companies across all kinds of industries will be spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI products. Today, though, that’s just… not happening…. Actual spending on AI products… is growing fast but hit only $13.8 billion in 2024 — barely covering the year’s two largest AI fundraising rounds from OpenAI and xAI…
My take is this:
Downstream of everyone are the Applications, and beyond them the non-tech Customers—people actually trying to use MAMLMs to do things that are actually useful to real people: make things for non-tech buyers, provide services to non-tech customers, or at least write code that will be used to do this.
Half a length behind, at their hindquarters are the oligopolists—Microsoft, Facebook, Google, Apple, Amazon, Oracle—who coin money because they have massive lock-in nobody can do what they do cheaply enough to induce customers to pay substantial switching costs and still make a profit. These oligopolists, however, are terrified that “AI” will allow competitors to disrupt them in a Christensenian sense, and so they are spending like water so that their “AI” capabilities will be robust enough to head off that possibility. They do not expect to make money off of “AI”—Microsoft’s hopes of taking search market share from Google aside—but they do think they have to pay the “AI tax”, and pay through the nose, because they believe if they do not jump on this now it could rapidly become an existential threat.
Immediately upstream of the Applications and the Oligopolists are, first, the Cloud-Providers—Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle—right now making money selling computation services and yet spending all that money and more expanding their capacity. Immediately upstream of the Applications and the Oligopolists are, second, the Model-Builders—OpenAI, Anthropic, and so forth—right now lighting money on fire trying to train the best model so that they can someday make money. But that is almost surely a vain hope because Facebook has opensourced LLaMA, and will keep it good enough and interoperable enough that nobody will ever make significant money selling foundation-model services to anybody. So what keeps the Model-Builders working is the gullibility of funders and the hopes of engineers that working on this now will get them in the room when AGI emerges, and they can be in its first tranche of worshippers.
Upstream of the Cloud-Providers and the Model-Builders is NVIDIA, coining huge amounts of money because Jensen Huang has convinced everyone that they dare not wait the two years it would take them to build-out a much cheaper non-NVIDIA stack—everyone except Apple, that is, which seems to be betting a bunch on the currently non-existent M4, M5, and M6 Ultra and Extreme chips. (But do note that Google has and Facebook and Amazon are building their own NVIDIA competitors).
Upstream of NVIDIA is TSMC, which made some substantial mistakes in setting its prices when it negotiated with NVIDIA, and so is simply begging at the table at which NVIDIA dines.
Upstream from TSMC is ASML, licking crumbs off the floor that fall when NVIDIA tosses scraps to TSMC. (Do, however, note that they are “crumbs” only in a very relative sense:
)
Right now the people who are getting huge amounts of value from “AI” are:
NVIDIA
People who may get substantial value from “AI” over the next five years are:
Oligopolists, who may get some insurance, some protection against Christensenian disruption.
Customers, to the extent that “AI” actually assists them—but so far, with the possible exception of Facebook’s ad-targeting, there is still much too much of a “Clever Hans” nature in everything except for programmer-coding assistance.
Everyone else looks to me to be spending lots of money for what looks to be, at best, a low rate of return—at least until ASML and TSMC can redivide the profit pie.
In short: This is nuts! When’s the crash? But at least after the crash we will have lots of Cloud-GPU capacity to draw on and use.
ONE IMAGE: Global Warming Is Now China-Driven, & a Problem for China to Solve:
U.S. and E,U. cutting their annual CO2 emissions by 35B tons/year since their peak; China raising its by 8B ton/year since 2000.
Very Briefly Noted:
Economic Development: The loss of “Third World” as a term one is supposed to use in polite society is, to my mind, a damned shame. “Tiers État” has a long and very honorable history, and that echo was useful and evocative—but, alas, only me and perhaps 5000 other people worldwide get the reference these days:
Oliver Kim: The Rhetoric of Underdevelopment: ‘A potted history of what we call poor countries…. “Underdeveloped…” was… most common… up till the 1960s…. “Developing country” took over in the optimistic 1960s…. This changed in the fat years of the 1990s… [when in] a global commodity markets boom, “emerging market” took off…. What do we call this bloc? The dominant term… was the “Third World”… of the French demographer Alfred Sauvy, in conscious reference to Abbe Sieyés’s revolutionary pamphlet “What is the Third Estate?”…. But, much like being “homeless”, the stigma of poverty soon transformed a neutral term into a pejorative…. Global South… is a 1969 invention of Carl Oglesby… fits neatly into the dependency theory of Prebisch and Singer… [and] reflects the common left-academic hope that terminology can reshape thought, that the right word can shock us back into collective action…. [But] “Global South” will likely assume its place alongside “developing” and “Third World”—as an easy put-down from the mouths of the rich… <https://www.global-developments.org/p/the-rhetoric-of-underdevelopment>Finance: I am not sure this is best characterized as “a bubble”. The world outside is crazy enough that “wealth in New York or Los Angeles” possesses a good deal of insurance value that wealth anywhere else does not. Of course, this makes it very hard for the U.S. to be a manufacturing powerhouse, which means that the government role in R&D needs to be massively upped, and upped in “development” area where state capacity is not obviously present:
Ruchir Sharma: The Mother of All Bubbles: ‘The US has never been so overhyped…. The US accounts for nearly 70 per cent of the leading global stock index, up from 30 per cent in the 1980s. And the dollar, by some measures, trades at a higher value than at any time since the developed world abandoned fixed exchange rates 50 years ago…. America’s share of global stock markets is far greater than its 27 per cent share of the global economy…. It’s as if America is the only nation worth investing in…. As with all bubbles, it is hard to know when this one will deflate, or what will trigger its decline… <https://www.ft.com/content/49cca8d7-7b6e-47e3-a50c-9557d7c85fc0>Tech & Economics: The one piece of good news from Intel over the past month:
Zaheer Kachwala: Intel’s interim co-CEO Zinsner says new chief executive will have foundry experience: ‘Interim co-CEO David Zinsner…. “I’m not in the process, but I’m guessing that the CEO will have… both some capability around foundry as well as on the product side…”. The company also requires a significant cultural change to become a successful foundry player as well as in the semiconductor business, Intel’s head of foundry manufacturing and supply chain Naga Chandrasekaran said…. Chandrasekaran said Intel’s progress on the 18A advanced node manufacturing process was going as expected and has met several milestones despite facing difficulties and technical problems. “There’s nothing fundamentally challenging on this node now. It is about going through the remaining yield challenges, defect density challenges,” he said. Intel plans to provide samples of chips made with the new node to customers in the first half of next year, and start to ramp the production at its Oregon plant in the second half, Chandrasekaran added… <https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-interim-co-ceo-zinsner-says-new-chief-executive-will-have-foundry-2024-12-04/>Tech & Economics: The Verge has a new business model! It is called “a website”! And it seems to be working:
Nilay Patel: Here we go: The Verge now has a subscription: ‘A lot of our site will remain free, but you can now pay to get fewer ads and unlimited access to all of our work…. We decided to make our own site as valuable to you… as we could…. Quick Posts and the Storystream news feed…. This worked: we’ve maintained a massive loyal audience despite industry-wide declines in Google referrals and big social platforms downranking links…. 55,000 of you have come to the site every single day this year. A lot of you really like The Verge, and we’re eternally grateful for that — we intend to keep making this thing together for a long, long time…<https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/3/24306571/verge-subscription-launch-fewer-ads-unlimited-access-full-text-rss>Tech & Economics: The very short-course version:
Sean Hollister: What happened to Intel?: ‘Intel has ejected its CEO. There are many possible reasons why…. Over a decade ago, Intel spent billions investing in Dutch multinational ASML, which is today the most important company in chips. It’s the only firm in the world that manufactures machines capable of pulverizing a ball of tin, using high-power lasers, such that it emits an extremely tight wavelength of ultraviolet light to efficiently carve circuits into silicon wafers, a process known as EUV. Intel initially believed in the tech, even carving out a $4.1 billion stake in the company, then decided not to order the pricey machines. But Taiwan’s TSMC did — and went on to become the undisputed leader in silicon manufacturing, producing an estimated 90-plus percent of the world’s “leading-edge logic chips.” Samsung ordered machines, too. Gelsinger was not shy about calling Intel’s choice “a fundamental mistake” in our 2022 interview. “We were betting against it. How stupid could we be?”… Moorhead and Creative Strategies analyst Ben Bajarin both believe Gelsinger’s departure was so sudden, it can’t simply have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. “There must have been a decision the board made that he was not going to stick around for,” Moorhead tells me…<https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/3/24311594/intel-under-pat-gelsinger>Neofascism: Elon Musk continues to try to convince the Delaware Chancery that laws protect him, but do not bind him. I suppose his next move is to buy an opinion from the Texas Supreme Court, and then the U.S. Supreme Court, to remove the case from Delaware Chancery jurisdiction:
Kathaleen McCormick: Opinion Awarding Attorney’s Fees And Denying Motion To Revise The Post-Trial Opinion: ‘The motion to revise is denied. The large and talented group of defense firms got creative… but… there are at least four fatal flaws…. The defendants have no procedural ground… based on evidence they created after trial…. Common-law ratification is an affirmative defense that must be timely raised…. What the defendants call “common law ratification” has no basis in the common law…. [And] even if a stockholder vote could have a ratifying effect, it could not do so here due to multiple, material misstatements in the proxy statement…. The fee petition is granted in part. The plaintiff’s attorneys asked for $5.6 billion in freely tradeable Tesla shares. In a case about excessive compensation, that was a bold ask… <https://courts.delaware.gov/Opinions/Download.aspx?id=372420>Neofascism: By contrast, here in Berkeley the only thing we neg people for in public is for wearing Dodgers caps:
Lynn Dean: ‘On a road trip in mostly red states. People are not ok out here. 1) The amount of complete dumbfuckery on display at every turn is DISTURBING. Gas station cashier lost her shit yesterday morning and started screaming at people’s inability to manage pulling in and out of the pumps without blocking each other, and I couldn’t blame her. 2) Someone has been vomiting in the stall next to me at almost every public restroom for 2 days. Opiods? Alcohol? ¯_(ツ)_/¯. Performative angry displays of “god, guns, and country” everywhere - I have been confronted about my blue state plates A LOT. 4) Disturbing numbers of closed storefronts, graffiti, or stores with sparse, old, dusty, or spoiled goods in every town. Except Walmart, which is booming. 5) Sharps containers in all the public bathrooms - I assume for insulin syringes? People are eager to tell me that my blue state is a Zombie apocalypse with poop in the streets, but the zombies are HERE. This feels like it is leading somewhere very bad… <https://www.threads.net/@idle_lynn/post/DDF6B-qyuFt>Public Reason: This puts something I have been groping towards into words much better than I ever have:
Jeff Jarvis: ‘How I despise the “culture war” framing. Were anti-miscegenation laws “culture”? Was slavery? Was burning witches? Thus media moral-wash bigotry & GOP-manufactured moral panic. “Supreme Court Returns to a Culture War Battleground: Transgender Rights” <nytimes.com/2024…>. What is a better framing? Civil rights. Human rights. Moral panic. Bigotry. And while we’re at it, banning books is not “culture war.” It is censorship. Journalists: Call these acts what they are, not in the terms set by the instigators… <https://www.threads.net/@jeffjarvis/post/DDHg-JbJOUF?>
Reading: The fact is that every decade I find a new reason to reread this, and it is—nearly—as dead-on as when I first read it in the 1970s, but each decade it is dead-on in a slightly different way:
Graham Greene: The Quiet American: ‘“York [Harding]”, Pyle said, “wrote that what the East needed was a Third Force”. Perhaps I should have seen that fanatic gleam, the quick response to a phrase, the magic sound of figures: Fifth Column, Third Force, Seventh Day. I might have saved all of us a lot of trouble, even Pyle, if I had realized the direction of that indefatigable young brain… <https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.462196>
SubStack NOTES:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/05/opinion/syrian-rebels-hts-assad-civil-war.html\n\nHopefully Hassan Hassan does not believe what he says. Hopefully he understands that it is not because America is “China-focused” that it is “incapable or unwilling” to undertake “generational nation-building project[s]”. But either way the fact that he feels he needs to write those words at the end of his call to engage with and (hopefully) moderate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as not “merely… terrorists but… political actors filling the void left by failing states…” even though it rules through “intimidation, assassination of its rivals and the murder of civil society activists… iron-fisted practices…”—the fact that he feels the need bodes ill for the level of public reason.\n\nReference:\n\nGreene, Graham. 1955. The Quiet American. London: William Heinemann. https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.462196.","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Journamalism"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"It’s another “New York Times” special. Remember Graham Greene’s 1955 novel “The Quiet American”?: “"},{"type":"text","text":"‘York [Harding]”, Pyle said, ‘wrote that what the East needed was a Third Force’. Perhaps I should have seen that fanatic gleam, the quick response to a phrase, the magic sound of figures: Fifth Column, Third Force, Seventh Day. I might have saved all of us a lot of trouble, even Pyle, if I had realized the direction of that indefatigable young brain…” <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.colemanm.org/post/a-th… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.colemanm.org/post/a-th…},{"type":"text","text":">."},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":" Yes, it is that the United States will go into some other country and create, out of thin air, a democracy-minded strongman or strongmen who will bring order and prosperity without being too brutal. Didn’t work then. Doesn’t work now 70 years later. But the “New York Times” keeps publishing people who claim that it does and will:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Hassan Hassan"},{"type":"text","text":": The War on Terror Had an Unexpected Outcome: ‘Western nations have a choice: create a moderate alternative that can govern effectively, or acknowledge that… groups [like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] will continue to rule in a world that is far from perfect. The first choice involves a generational nation-building project that a China-focused America may be incapable or unwilling to do… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.nytimes.com/2024/12/0… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.nytimes.com/2024/12/0…}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Hopefully Hassan Hassan does not believe what he says. Hopefully he understands that it is not because America is “China-focused” that it is “incapable or unwilling” to undertake “generational nation-building project[s]”. But either way the fact that he feels he needs to write those words at the end of his call to engage with and (hopefully) moderate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as not “merely… terrorists but… political actors filling the void left by failing states…” even though it rules through “intimidation, assassination of its rivals and the murder of civil society activists… iron-fisted practices…”—the fact that he feels the need bodes ill for the level of public reason."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Reference:"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Greene, Graham"},{"type":"text","text":". 1955. "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The Quiet American"},{"type":"text","text":". London: William Heinemann. <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"archive.org/details/i… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"archive.org/details/i…}]}]}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":2,"attachments":[{"id":"a0ec7153-8375-4fcf-950c-f9e11590f055","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"archive.org/details/i…,"host":"archive.org","title":"The Quiet American : Greene, Graham : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive","description":"Book Source: Digital Library of India Item 2015.462196dc.contributor.author: Greene, Grahamdc.date.accessioned: 2015-09-22T15:35:15Zdc.date.available:…","image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0c61c7c6-8845-41e6-9283-888a6c860e71_180x274.jpeg","original_image":"https://archive.org/services/img/in.ernet.dli.2015.462196"},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/im…}}” data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/30/russia-secret-war-invasion-of-europe/. Oh, and the French government just collapsed https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxz934p56qo. And I haven’t even mentioned Ukraine and Israel and Gaza and Lebanon and Sudan. At least our president is sharp as a tack. “If it feels like the world is on fire right now, that’s because it is,” writes Jay Solomon in our lead story today. Things are so bad experts are drawing chilling historical comparisons to 1914 and 1939. They’re asking, could we be on the brink of another world war? Or has World War III already begun?… https://www.thefp.com/p/is-wwiii-already-underway-is-hegseth\n\nSo? Is this just another move by “The Free Press” in the standard playbook of it and its ilk—to scare the shit out of its readers to keep their eyeballs glued to their screens so that their pockets can be picked? Is it an attempt to rally support for Big Daddy Trump, as the guy who will protect us against all these ruthless and vicious enemies? The Wiseman dig at Biden points in that direction pretty strongly, I think.\n\nOr is there some deeper right-wing courtier politics agenda behind these claims that now is, in important ways, like November 17, 1942?","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Journamalism"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The bullshit quotient of Bari Weiss’s “The Free Press” has always been very high. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"But shouldn’t this get some special BQ recognition?:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Jay Solomon"},{"type":"text","text":": Is World War III Already Here?: ‘The ‘Axis of Upheaval’ is on the march—and the U.S. must figure out how to respond….The world is on fire right now…. From Ukraine to Syria to the Korean Peninsula, a widening array of conflicts is raising questions among defense experts: Is it 1914 again? 1939? Has World War III already started and we’re just now figuring it out?… For retired Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, who served as Donald Trump’s second national security adviser from 2017–2018, the answer is clear. “I think we’re on the cusp of a world war,” McMaster told "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The Free Press"},{"type":"text","text":"…. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"These wars, rebellions, and spy tales may appear disconnected. But in reality, they all point to a widening global conflict that is pitting the U.S. and its allies against China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—nations all fixated on toppling the West. Strategists have even come up with catchy nicknames for this anti-American coalition, dubbing the bloc the “Axis of Aggressors” or the “Axis of Upheaval.”… "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Philip Zelikow… is among those who think these conflicts are related. “I think there is a serious possibility of what I call worldwide warfare”—meaning a world war that is not as coordinated as past global conflagrations. “It’s not hard to see one of these conflicts crossing over into another”… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.thefp.com/p/world-w… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.thefp.com/p/world-w…},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"During WWII, deaths in state-based military conflicts averaged 10,000,000 a year. 2022’s peak was 2.8% of that number. 2022 had 3 ½ times the population of 1940, so war was only 0.8% as much a part of the human experience as in WWII."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"And those 280,000 war and war-related deaths in 2022? 180,000 came in Ethiopia’s Tigray War. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Jay Solomon shows no signs of knowing about its existence. When I search for “‘jay solomon’ AND Tigray” Google tells me: “try using words that might appear on the page you are looking for, For example, ‘cake recipes’ instead of ‘how to make a cake”. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"No. World War III is not already here. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The question is whether Jay Solomon knows so little about what world wars are that he is confused and thinks it might be. Or whether Solomon knows it isn’t, but is rather joining McMaster, Zelikow, and company in a rather cynical disinformation and misinformation campaign. A campaign in which the masthead of “The Free Press” is an enthusiastic participant:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Oliver Wiseman"},{"type":"text","text":": Is WWIII Already Underway? Is Hegseth Toast? Plus…: ‘It’s Thursday, December 5. This is "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"The Front Page"},{"type":"text","text":", your daily window into the world of "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"The Free Press"},{"type":"text","text":"…. Things are so crazy across the globe…. Syria… South Korea… Georgia… he wave of violence across Europe that, according to "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The Telegraph"},{"type":"text","text":", means Russia’s “secret war” against the West has already begun <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.youtube.com/watch ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.youtube.com/watch},{"type":"text","text":". Oh, and the French government just collapsed <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.youtube.com/watch ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.youtube.com/watch},{"type":"text","text":". And I haven’t even mentioned Ukraine and Israel and Gaza and Lebanon and Sudan. At least our president is sharp as a tack. “If it feels like the world is on fire right now, that’s because it is,” writes "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Jay Solomon "},{"type":"text","text":"in our lead story today. Things are so bad experts are drawing chilling historical comparisons to 1914 and 1939. They’re asking, could we be on the brink of another world war? Or has World War III "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"already begun?… "},{"type":"text","text":"<"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.thefp.com/p/is-wwii… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.thefp.com/p/is-wwii…},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"So? Is this just another move by “The Free Press” in the standard playbook of it and its ilk—to scare the shit out of its readers to keep their eyeballs glued to their screens so that their pockets can be picked? Is it an attempt to rally support for Big Daddy Trump, as the guy who will protect us against all these ruthless and vicious enemies? 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www.hoover.org/research/…>… [that] went viral recently….. ? A little digging by Invictus here https://bsky.app/profile/tbpinvictus.bsky.social (he does amazing work) led to some very obvious analytical errors. Not that these mistakes stopped many politicos and even journalists from blindly repeating the mistake. “Rip & Read” journalism still lives.\n\nMichael Hiltzik of the L.A. Times did a very thorough follow-up https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2024-12-03/column-the-hoover-institution-says-all-recent-california-job-growth-has-been-in-government-jobs-thats-completely-wrong. Hoover has retracted the published article. Its author, Lee Ohanian, deleted his Twitter account. This is the second such time a basic ECON101 error appeared from this author and this source. (We may have to dive deeper into the archive to see what else was wrong). Journalists are advised to stop parroting hired guns for the Fast Food industry or other partisan players… https://ritholtz.com/2024/12/hoover-withdraws-discredited-article/\n\nAnd:\n\nInvictus: Never Mix Payroll and Household Survey Data: ‘Let’s cut to the chase: A Hoover Institution analysis of California private job creation is off by a factor of 100. Between January 2022 and June 2024, the state created 523,700 private sector jobs — not 5,400 as claimed. MSM uncritically repeated the false number. I spend far too much time debunking economic bullshit. Sigh…. Hoover Institution’s Lee Ohanian wrote a piece last April https://www.hoover.org/research/california-loses-nearly-10000-fast-food-jobs-after-20-minimum-wage-signed-last-fall falsely claiming that California’s new minimum wage law had cost the state almost 10,000 fast food jobs. The story was false. Some sleuthing uncovered the fact Ohanian had inappropriately relied on data that was not seasonally adjusted.… He eventually walked his error back, but only when confronted by Michael Hiltzik https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2024-06-12/the-fast-food-industry-claims-the-california-minimum-wage-law-is-costing-jobs-its-numbers-are-fake…. Once again, Ohanian is back…. “Between January 2022 and June 2024, employment in US private businesses increased by about 7.32 million jobs. Of these 7.32 million jobs, about 5,400 were jobs created in California businesses…. California has been among the worst-performing states in the country in terms of job growth…. Nearly all jobs that are being created in California are government jobs”…. (De-emphais added; the statements that are untrue or questionable are struck through)…. “Total jobs”… [is] Household Survey. From that, the good professor is subtracting “government jobs… from the Establishment Survey… https://ritholtz.com/2024/11/lee-ohanians-comedy-of-errors/\n\nAnd:\n\nMichael Hiltzik: The Hoover Institution says all recent California job growth has been in government jobs. That’s completely wrong: ‘Ohanian acknowledged in an email that he had erroneously considered the household and establishment figures similar enough to treat them as effectively equivalent. “If I had seen the differences in the two series,” he says, “I would have written the piece differently. Mea Culpa.” In a corrective article posted Tuesday on the Hoover website https://www.hoover.org/research/recent-trends-californias-job-growth, Ohanian makes public his mea culpa, but also reiterates a point he made in the original article, which is that California’s job growth is weakening… https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2024-12-03/column-the-hoover-institution-says-all-recent-california-job-growth-has-been-in-government-jobs-thats-completely-wrong\n\nAnd put me down as not impressed by the claim that “California’s job growth is weakening”: national job growth is weakening because the Federal Reserve wants job growth to weaken. Relative to the national average, the California unemployment rate today is where it was in 2014, higher than it was in 2019, and lower than it was in 2021. There is no signal here of the effects of recent policy changes here, and it is false to claim that there is.","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"This Is Simply Not a Mistake Real Economists Ever Make"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Put me down as disgusted by Lee Ohanian’s defensive claim that his subtracting an establishment-survey number from a household-survey number was a natural error because “typically, job growth in these two surveys move together very closely…” They do not. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"WHEN I WAS ELEVEN "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"economist Joseph Froomkin told me, as I strained to understand his extremely strong Shanghai-Russian accent, that the failure of these two surveys to move together over the business cycle showed how serious the problems of measuring economic statistics were, even in countries with world-class statistical systems. He then handed me his copy of Oskar Morgenstern’s "},{"type":"text","text":"On the Accuracy of Economic Observations. "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"(No: I could not then really read it, or really understand it.) But no competent economist ever mixes and matches data from two different sources without careful, careful consideration. And thus I have grave questions to ask the Economics Department of the University of Rochester:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Barry Ritholtz"},{"type":"text","text":": Hoover Withdraws Discredited Article: ‘You may have missed this little brouhaha over the Thanksgiving weekend. We posted an analysis <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"ritholtz.com/2024/11/l… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"ritholtz.com/2024/11/l…},{"type":"text","text":" of a deeply flawed (dare I say fabricated?) data analysis from the Hoover Institution <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"ritholtz.com/2024/11/l… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"ritholtz.com/2024/11/l…},{"type":"text","text":"… [that] went viral recently….. ? A little digging by Invictus here <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"ritholtz.com/2024/11/l… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"ritholtz.com/2024/11/l…},{"type":"text","text":"> (he does amazing work) led to some very obvious analytical errors. Not that these mistakes stopped many politicos and even journalists from blindly repeating the mistake. “Rip & Read” journalism still lives."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Michael Hiltzik of the L.A. Times did a very thorough follow-up <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"ritholtz.com/2024/11/l… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"ritholtz.com/2024/11/l…},{"type":"text","text":". Hoover has retracted the published article. Its author, Lee Ohanian, deleted his Twitter account. This is the second such time a basic ECON101 error appeared from this author and this source. (We may have to dive deeper into the archive to see what else was wrong). Journalists are advised to stop parroting hired guns for the Fast Food industry or other partisan players… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"ritholtz.com/2024/12/h… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"ritholtz.com/2024/12/h…},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"And"},{"type":"text","text":":"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Invictus"},{"type":"text","text":": Never Mix Payroll and Household Survey Data: ‘Let’s cut to the chase: A Hoover Institution analysis of California private job creation is off by a factor of 100. Between January 2022 and June 2024, the state created 523,700 private sector jobs — not 5,400 as claimed. MSM uncritically repeated the false number. I spend far too much time debunking economic bullshit. "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Sigh…. "},{"type":"text","text":"Hoover Institution’s Lee Ohanian wrote a piece last April <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.hoover.org/research/… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.hoover.org/research/…},{"type":"text","text":" falsely claiming that California’s new minimum wage law had cost the state almost 10,000 fast food jobs. The story was false. Some sleuthing uncovered the fact Ohanian had inappropriately relied on data that was not seasonally adjusted.… He eventually walked his error back, but only when confronted by Michael Hiltzik <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.hoover.org/research/… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.hoover.org/research/…},{"type":"text","text":"…. Once again, Ohanian is back…. “Between January 2022 and June 2024, employment in US private businesses increased by about 7.32 million jobs. "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"strike"}],"text":"Of these 7.32 million jobs, about 5,400 were jobs created in California businesses…. California has been among the worst-performing states in the country in terms of job growth…. Nearly all jobs that are being created in California are government jobs”"},{"type":"text","text":"…. (De-emphais added; the statements that are untrue or questionable are struck through)…. “Total jobs”… [is] Household Survey. From that, the good professor is subtracting “government jobs… from the Establishment Survey… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"ritholtz.com/2024/11/l… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"ritholtz.com/2024/11/l…},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"And"},{"type":"text","text":":"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Michael Hiltzik"},{"type":"text","text":": The Hoover Institution says all recent California job growth has been in government jobs. That’s completely wrong: ‘Ohanian acknowledged in an email that he had erroneously considered the household and establishment figures similar enough to treat them as effectively equivalent. “If I had seen the differences in the two series,” he says, “I would have written the piece differently. Mea Culpa.” In a corrective article posted Tuesday on the Hoover website <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.hoover.org/research/… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.hoover.org/research/…},{"type":"text","text":", Ohanian makes public his mea culpa, but also reiterates a point he made in the original article, which is that California’s job growth is weakening… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"www.latimes.com/business/… ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"www.latimes.com/business/…},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"And put me down as not impressed by the claim that “California’s job growth is weakening”: national job growth is weakening because the Federal Reserve wants job growth to weaken. Relative to the national average, the California unemployment rate today is where it was in 2014, higher than it was in 2019, and lower than it was in 2021. There is no signal here of the effects of recent policy changes here, and it is false to claim that there is."}]}]},"restacks":1,"reaction_count":8,"attachments":[{"id":"52d873c2-e474-4868-be31-99c32dd71186","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"www.latimes.com/business/…,"host":"latimes.com","title":"Column: The Hoover Institution says all recent California job growth has been in government jobs. That’s completely wrong","description":"A Hoover Institution analysis claiming that 96% of California job growth is in government job is dead wrong, but got taken up by right-wing California bashers anyway.","image":"substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/im…},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/im…}}” data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>
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