HyperScaler Operating Cash Flow “Consensus” Forecast: CHART OF THE DAY
Who actually made up the “consensus” forecast that the operating cash flow of the five biggest HyperScalers will triple from today’s annual $600 billion to $2 trillion by 2030, while their capital expenditures will grow by $500 billion less to give them $500 billion of free cash flow by 2030? And why? And how?
Apollo finds this time series in its incoming firehose feed flow, and reports. My reaction: WAIT!! WHAT?!?! WHERE DOES THIS COME FROM?!?! And the sudden upward bend in the net as the costs curve slows and the revenue curve accelerates is—interesting.
The lines on this chart look authoritative. But they are a crowd forecast. And where has the crowd gotten its information from? What bottom-up detailed understandings of the technology and its deployment do the guys with the spreadsheets working for the sell-side actually have here?
The “HyperScalers” are: Google, FaceBook, Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle.
