Hormuz, Trump, & the $140/bbl. Question: CHART OF THE DAY

The Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil is climbing, and both sides insist the other will blink first. Iran’s leaders think they have found a structural advantage over Washington: they can outlast a US administration that fears swing‑state voters looking at gas pumps…

Trump is unwilling to use the US military to commit truly genocidal (not merely atrocity) war crimes on a scale unseen since World War II, and his generals and admirals have convinced him that using US weapons to try to further degrade Iran’s military and command-and-control and to kill its current set of leaders attrits the US in an unaffordable way. Hence the current “ceasefire” blockade. So we have:

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Hakyung Kim: Unhedged: Chart of the Week <https://ep.ft.com/permalink/>: ‘Good morning. We’re now entering the fourth month since the start of the Iran war, and the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked…. Many… have been surprised that Brent crude hasn’t risen more…. But a look at prices in the context of commercial inventories shows… May’s average… fit[ting] the historical trend…. Hamad Hussain at Capital Economics pointed out to Unhedged… [that] commercial inventories… fall[ing] at about 100mn barrels per month — as they did in April and May — [could send] oil prices… [to] $130 and $140 per barrel in June, and possibly even higher. China’s dramatic reduction in crude oil imports has cushioned some of the supply shock, as has the release of strategic oil reserves by the US and other countries. But these aren’t [repeatable indefinitely]…