A labor market in rough balance is a strange place to look for an AI-driven jobs collapse. The full-time typist has disappeared, but very few jobs are like that—fully automatable by “AI”…

From Apollo, we have the monthly vacancies/unemployed ratio for the past 11 and a half years:

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And:

Torsten Slok: Where Is the AI Jobs Crisis? <m/wealth/the-daily-spark/where-is-the-ai-jobs-crisis>: ‘If AI were triggering a jobs crisis, we would expect job openings to collapse and unemployment to climb, yet the opposite is happening. The number of job openings per unemployed worker has started to rise again and is now back above 1.0, meaning there are still more jobs available than workers to fill them, see chart below. The May jobs report reinforced this with nonfarm payrolls jumping by 172,000, confirming that there are no signs of workers being replaced by ChatGPT…

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The labor market remains in the rough balance it has been in since mid-2024.

Back when my father was twenty some years younger than I am now and was working for the Ford Foundation, he would dictate and somebody—female—a typist—would type up his memos. The typist. At the keyboard eight hours a day with input coming through the earphones via dictaphone tapes or through the eyeballs via marked-up previous drafts or (shudder) handwritten scribbles. Those jobs are gone. But very few jobs are like the full-time typist’s job. Most jobs remain, albeit with a different configuration of tasks and automation, as waves of technological change wash over them.

So far, so good: We are not horse, and we have not peaked.

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