Nate Silver & Eli McKown Dawson: FLIPR: WEBSITE OF THE DAY
If you are going to spend money or time thinking about election odds this fall, then: <https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model>; in a field built for wishful thinking, an analytical team that just wants to find the true probabilities; a rare international treasure:
And we have:
Nate Silver & Eli McKown Dawson: FLIPR Landing Page <https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model>: ‘…
In election forecasting, as in sports odds estimation, and in poker, Team Nate Silver is a rare international treasure. An analytical team that wants the odds and does not care enough about the underlying game or issues to self-brainwash themselves or to let others brainwah them into too much wishful thinking.
That makes them unique. Truly unique.
Thus: if you are going to spend a lot of time trying to figure out what the real odds are with respect to the shape of those who will take office early next year, I advise you to pay attention to Nate Silver and to nobody else. He will tell you things he believes are true, he will have worked hard to properly mark your beliefs to market, and he does not care when he is telling you things you do not want to hear.
That last makes him and his team especially valuable.
If you are going to spend any money as well as your time on this activity this fall, spend it on him and his team:
Am I going to spring for a paid subscription this fall?
I am going to try hard not to.
I am enough of an egocentric monster to believe that my thoughts and recommendations in my lane are of extremely high value to the world. Opinion-poll aggregation and election forecasting are not my lane. Moreover, I do not find it a particularly fun thing to think about. I’m going to try to restrict my activities this fall to things that are (a) fun for me or(b) where I am actually adding serious value or (c) both.
We will see how long this line in the sand I have now drawn lasts.