Equity investors sell the dream; bond investors price the funeral. Here’s what they’re charging those undertaking the now debt-financed DataCenter rush:

Everyone’s watching Nvidia’s stock. But there is also honest signal in credit spreads — where the price of bearing lower-tail risk tells you exactly how nervous the smart or at least the willing-to-lend money is.

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The bond market contains people who don’t care much about the upper tail of the boom, but want to price the bust scenarios appropriately. It is thus an aggregator of what people willing to pay to bear lower-tail risk are in fact thinking about what that lower-tail bust risk is.

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