Trump Started a War, Lost the War, & Is Paying Reparations to Iran: MOST IMPORTANT THING
Trump’s Hormuz ransom: a lost war has turned into a $300 million‑a‑day payout as Trump pivots from “maximum pressure” to “how much cash flow do you need?” & this, of course, is just the first tranche: the commitment is to find a $300 billion solution for the reconstruction of Iran. Tehran has leveraged Trump’s war made in Washington into a remarkable resource windfall.
The most important thing to hang on to this week:
This is what Trump calls the “complete defeat of Iran”:
The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has issued an Iran-Related General License:
Treasury OFAC: Issuance of Iran-Related General License <https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260622_33>: ‘Authorizing the Production, Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil, Petrochemical Products, and Petroleum Products of Iranian-Origin through August 21, 2026…
The license authorizes authorizes the production, delivery and sale of crude oil, petrochemical products, and petroleum products of Iranian origin, and explicitly allows buyers to pay Iran directly in U.S. dollars for those sales. There is no escrow requirement; this is a real, near‑term revenue channel for Tehran, limited mainly by counterparty risk and banks’ compliance nerves, rather than by the possible long-arm reach of U.S. law. “Compliance nerves” meaning that banks are scared that Trump does not really mean it—that come October he will penalize banks that play ball with respect to this license.
This covers production. This allows payments to some Iranian entities otherwise blocked under terrorism and WMD programs. This is de facto large‑scale sanctions elimination on oil.
On top of this is the commitment, in writing, to unfreeze Iranian state assets. There have now been several reports of an initial tranche of $12 billion. Figure $25 billion extra flowing to Iran over the next 60 days. And that is a $300 million a day ransom to Iran for not blocking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Shorter London Economist:
Noah Smith: <https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/2066665039868883316>: ‘Trump Started a War, Lost the War, & Is Paying Reparations to Iran: The Hormuz Letter: “BREAKING: Iran says the US has agreed to pay $300 billion in reconstruction funds directly to Iran as part of the deal Pakistan announced, alongside the release of $24 billion in frozen funds with $12 billion released before negotiations even start, per Mehr News…
Economist: Donald Trump’s Least Bad Option in Iran <https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/06/10/donald-trumps-least-bad-option-in-iran>: ‘Once again, Iran has been “completely defeated”, said Donald Trump on June 10th…. In reality, despite more than 100 days of being bombed and blockaded by the world’s top military superpower and its Israeli ally, the Iranian regime is emboldened…. Mr Trump is in a triple bind. Iran is garrotting the global energy supply…. Israel is bombing Lebanon, despite Mr Trump telling it not to. And hawks in America are pressing Mr Trump to chase unrealistic war aims. Something must eventually give….
Inside Iran… the war seems to have strengthened the hand of hardliners…. Israel complicates matters…. Trump wants… Netanyahu… o wind down his attacks on Hizbullah, Iran’s proxy militia in Lebanon…. [But] Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon is expanding… in the run-up to a general election…. The hard men in Tehran are delighted at their enemies’ division.
Chart: The Economist
In America, meanwhile, hawks are demanding full-scale war on Iran…. Oil prices wobble with each newsflash, but have yet to rise nearly as far as they could….
Mr Trump needs to make a deal…. Forget about anything as good as the pre-war status quo, let alone the deal Barack Obama struck in 2015…which Mr Trump tore up. The best Mr Trump can hope for is a makeshift pact to reopen the strait in exchange for an extended ceasefire…. Economic sweeteners will be necessary…. Haggling over Iran’s nuclear programme will have to come later. Such a deal would be unstable, and humiliating for America. Yet it would be less bad than any plausible alternative…. His war on Iran has cost America dearly.
60 days from now, on August 21st, will anything in this situation have changed to not make a 60-day extension of the ceasefire then conditional on a further $300 million a day of money flowing into Iran? Or will it even last that long—Netanyahu has huge domestic political reasons to keep his war in Southern Lebanon going, after all. And if the US cannot follow through on its promise of peace in Lebanon, how much extra will it have to give per day to keep Hormuz open?
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