And, in Less than 24 hours, the US Is Already in Breach of the Islamabad MOU: CHAOS MONKEYS GONNA CHAOS WATCH
Sixty Days to Peace, Zero Days to Breach: Trump’s Islamabad MOU’s ink has not even dried, and the Iranians are noting the failure of the US to live up to its day zero obligations…
Yes:
Helmuth Tromm: US & Iran Delay Kickoff to Talks as Lebanon Clashes Worsen <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-06-19/us-and-iran-delay-kickoff-to-talks-as-lebanon-clashes-worsen>: ‘The 60-day clock on a US-Iran peace deal has barely started ticking and already mounting tensions are threatening to throw it off course. Switzerland’s Foreign Ministry announced this morning that the talks have been “postponed” following overnight clashes in Lebanon that resulted in the deaths four Israeli soldiers, including a battalion commander. While JD Vance has warned Israel against attacking Donald Trump’s deal, the country has insisted it will keep troops across its borders until it’s sure Hezbollah no longer poses a threat…
The text of the Islamabad MOU:
(1) The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon….
(4) Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran….
(10) The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc…
Has Bessent issued the Iranian oil export waivers and has Hegseth issued orders to American blockading forces to stand down? If one is going to try to keep the agreement, it is better to be in immediate breach of only one of one’s obligations, rather than three.
Just asking.
Iran has noted that Trump is in breach:
Golnar Motevalli, Omar Tamo, & Galit Altstein: US & Iran Delay Nuclear Talks as Lebanon Clashes Worsen <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-19/vance-delays-swiss-trip-as-white-house-says-talks-never-simple>: ‘The talks, which were meant to take place in Switzerland on Friday, were delayed because of… clashes between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants…. Iran… insisted on a ceasefire in Lebanon… and didn’t send a delegation to the talks as a result of the fresh hostilities.… [In] the strait… maritime traffic has picked up… [but] traffic through the waterway—critical for global energy supplies—appeared to thin early Friday, a day after a surge in renewed oil flows as the two countries vowed to lift a dual blockade….
Itamar Ben Gvir, Israel’s far-right national security minister, reacted to the latest fighting in Lebanon by saying the Jewish state can’t ignore its security needs, “with all due respect to the US.” “The whole of Lebanon must burn,” he said on X. Israeli politicians are in campaign mode ahead of elections in October, and a significant majority of the public is favor of continuing military operations in Lebanon…
And JD Vance has warned Israel to remember who is in charge here:
Paul Wallace & Ellen Milligan: Vance Warns Israel Against Attacking Trump’s Iran Deal <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-18/vance-warns-israeli-cabinet-against-attacking-trump-s-iran-deal>: ‘“This does bother me,” Vance told reporters on Thursday, going on to refer to Netanyahu by his nickname. “You’ve seen people within Bibi’s cabinet who have come out and attacked the deal, and in some ways very personally attacked the president of the United States.”… Vance said Trump “is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time, and he happens to be the head of state of the world superpower.”…
“Two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars,” he said. “The problem for Israel is not Donald J. Trump, and anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality.”… “You’re a country of 9 million people,” he said. “You can’t just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have”…
The chances that the next use of nuclear weapons will happen in the Middle East and will happen in the next 50 years keep rising. And Donald Trump’s inability not just to get ducks in a row, but to understand what a duck even is, is not helping.