The Essential & Key Readings Selected from the Required Readings for Econ 115: The World Economy in the 20th Century

There is a demand for a shorter list of things to read than the 42-item reading list. (Hey! That isn’t even three things a week!). So here is a list of 16—less than 40%! (Admittedly, one of them is 600 pages long…

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First, and no surprise to you all, comes my 600-page book, published year before last. I see it as an essential resource for those interested in the economic history of the 20th century and its consequences. Indeed, I see it as potentially a treasure for all time.

Moreover, the book serves as a more complete and well-organized guide to my views on the century’s economic history than do the lectures I have given in this course. The lectures aim to illuminate other perspectives, and to build on the central argument threads presented in the book. They do not simply repeat those threads—given that the book exists, that would have been a waste of time:

Second comes Simon Kuznets’s 1971 Nobel Prize Lecture. It is pivotal in defining what modern economic growth actually is. Kuznets was the first to powerfully articulate that the Industrial Revolution was not the most significant event; instead, the critical development occurred in the 1870s with the advent of steam power, railroads, coal, and steel, which initiated a continuous process of technological change, transforming economies every generation:

Third comes Ronald Lee’s article on the demographic transition. It is crucial. The demographic transition is both understudied and underappreciated. The transition from an agrarian age—where the typical woman underwent eight if not more pregnancies—to our modern era has profoundly changed human experience to a remarkable degree. Yet many of us remain insufficiently aware of its deep impact:

Those are by far the three most important things to reread during RRR week. Be sure you get through those.

Moving on to less central, though still vitally important, works on the reading list:

Patricia Crone and Patrick Wyman provide baseline insights about human economies and societies back in the long Agrarian Age. We need that baseline to serve as a background against which the remarkable nature of the twentieth century stands out in bold relief. Crone’s is the best survey I have found of Agrarian Age economy and society. Wyman’s is a bold and remarkably successful exploration of the growth of the entrepreneurial and experimental spirit that emerged after 1500 in, roughly, a circle around the port of Dover at the southeastern corner of the island of Great Britain. As Crone says, other societies as of 1500 were on a trajectory to become more like themselves—to deepen and cement their operation as relatively stable societies of domination. Only Western Europe was in the process of reaching for alternative modes of human organization via a very unusual degree of institutional plasticity. It was, as of 1500, failing as a stable society of domination. And so it, most strongly inside the Dover Circle, started the process of becoming something else:

Next on my list of key readings come five pieces:

One is Arthur Lewis’s theory on how the extraordinary growth in global inequality in the 20th century was triggered by globalization and racial impediments to migration post–1870. He offers a profound and, I thin, largely correct explanation for how today’s immense wealth disparities between countries came about:

Another is Barry Eichengreen’s article on the Great Depression, the defining moment of 20th-century and, I think, future history as well. That the Great Depression in the United States spurred the creation of FDR’s New Deal Order kept the history of the 20th century from being much more tragic than it in fact was:

Yet another is Robert Bates’s take on the exceptional economic-development retardation of Sub-Saharan Africa in the Post-Colonial—or perhaps the Neocolonial—Age. Due to the semi-stalled fertility transition in much of Sub-Saharan Africa, it is projected to constitute 30% of the human race by the time that you students become old men and women. Getting Sub-Saharan Africa back on track is going to be the principal economic development challenge of your lives. And figuring out how it got off track is essential to figuring out what is to be done:

Two more are our readings looking at inequality within individual nations—Piketty and Saez on disparities of wealth, and Wilson on race-linked disparities in status and opportunity

The next set of the assigned readings that I pick out as truly essential are the readings that focus on our current situation: Gordon on whether the epoch that began in 1870 of humanity’s collective wealth doubling, or more than doubling, every generation might be coming toward an end; Auffhammer on how we need to start assessing how much of the next two generations’ technological dividend will be consumed by dealing with the damage from global warming; Eichengreen on the strength, meaning, and prospects for the contemporary movements that are variously called illiberal democracy, plebiscitarian authoritarianism’s or neofascism; and Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson on the characteristics of the next “mode of production” into which human society is currently moving—the Attention-Info-Bio-Tech economy:

Somewhat of a sidetrack—but included on this list simply because I find the subject of comparative economic systems in the 20th century so fascinating—is Robert Allen’s relatively positive, contrarian, and somewhat troll-ish assessment of the Soviet economic experience 1917–1991:

And last on my list of truly essential readings is the core reading for the alternative version of this course, the one that is taught most years, the version that Barry Eichengreen teaches. That version of the course focuses much more on world monetary affairs as the nervous system of humanity considered as a productive anthology intelligence. And Barry’s book is the best short overview of that take on the economic history of the 20th century that I know of:

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BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-22 Mo

Substantial monetary tightening since mid-2023 even as real economic strength and more rapid inflation reduction than expected offset each other; Dani Rodrik in 2019 on Industrial Policy; very briefly noted; Keynes was concerned with income & wealth inequality; Tej Parikh against the inflation freak-out; Trump’s claim not to be bound by any laws whatsoever; & Understanding Book-Classification ISBN Numbers & the Current Limits of MAMLMs; ScratchPad: John Maynard Keynes Was too Concerned with Wealth & Income Distribution…; & Why Is the Apple Vision Pro Going to Get Its Shot, While the Humane AI Pin Is Not Going to?…

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ONE IMAGE: U.S. Long-Term Ten-Year Treasury Interest Rates:

A remarkably substantial tightening of monetary conditions since mid-2023 as (a) the economy has proven much stronger than people had forecast while (b) inflation has come down much further and more rapidly than people had forecast:

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ONE VIDEO: Dani Rodrik (2019) on Industrial Policy:

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Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Economics: Dani Rodrik: America’s Manufacturing Renaissance Will Create Few Good Jobs—PROJECT SYNDICATE: ‘Manufacturing… plays a disproportionate role in driving innovation and productivity…. The pandemic highlighted the risks of far-flung cross-border supply chains…. Heightened geopolitical competition…. Then there is the goal of creating good jobs…. [But] one looks in vain around the world for successful examples of reversing the de-industrialization of employment. Germany… South Korea…. Boosting manufacturing employment is… chasing a fast-receding target. The world has moved on, and the nature of manufacturing technologies has changed irrevocably… <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-manufacturing-employment-falling-despite-investment-policies-by-dani-rodrik-2024-04>

  2. Bryce Elder: Tesla’s Q1 is going to be a wreck. Will anyone care?: ‘Dan Levy says that cancelling Model 2 in favour of a purpose-built robotaxi “would further drive a wedge between the ‘rational’ and ‘exuberant’ Tesla bulls.” The “rational” bull case argument for Tesla is primarily based on “the expectation that it will see an iPhone style consolidation of the auto market…. Model 2 was set to be the big step forward in taking additional share…” The thing with Model 2, says Levy, was that it could realistically be delivered as early as next year…. Without it, investors can only look forward to a collection of binary bets (AI and energy storage stuff as well as the robot chauffeurs and butlers). Throwing more resources at moonshots might be encouraging for those who see Tesla’s car manufacturing business as the stub of a Jetson’s-based investment case but everyone else is likely to be “increasingly uncomfortable in underwriting the story”… <https://www.ft.com/content/5acd4a61-be31-49b4-bbdd-2542784a7b18>

  3. Robin Wigglesworth: Small stocks, big problems: ‘The fact that US small caps have now underperformed the broader stock market since the 1980s—when research first showed that they over time outperformed—cannot be laid at the feet of Nvidia and Microsoft, or a single rate-hiking cycle…. Volatility and heightened transaction costs for… funds that have to rebalance… add up to 0.86 per cent… annual…. [Perhaps] the relative quality of smaller US companies has for some reason atrophied…. Yes yes, it’s trendy and facile to blame private equity for absolutely everything, but hear us out…. Small- and mid-cap[s are]… where private equity likes to play… <https://www.ft.com/content/abfbf19e-f963-4c1b-b69e-7bef8896e8cd>

  4. Plutocracy: Frederik Gieschen: Lessons from the Ultra-Wealthy: ‘Six years working for two of New York’s ultra-wealthy families…. Master your relationship to money or watch it master you…. Because mastering the money game typically comes at the expense of other interests and relationships, there are no other games to fall back on…. Devising tax schemes. Is that how one wants to spend their wealthy old age? Wrong question. It’s what the mind wants to do. Master your mind lest it master you…. By the way, the status games never end…. Wealth taints relationships.… Three kinds of relationships are less affected by this: relationships that preceded making a fortune (if you’re self-made)… among the wealthy, and… where the role of money is clearly defined (I pay you, you listen to me)…. <https://alchemy.substack.com/p/things-i-learned-working-for-the?publication_id=71425&post_id=143549129>

  5. Central Country: Stephen Roach: China’s Rebalancing Imperative—PROJECT SYNDICATE: ‘A major downturn in the Chinese property sector, amplified by a huge debt overhang, has eroded the potency of any investment offset…. That puts the focus squarely on the Chinese consumer…. Xi’s emphasis on “new productive forces” to drive higher-quality economic development…. No matter how it is framed, a focus on total factor productivity (TFP) growth is music to my ears… <https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/china-economic-rebalancing-increase-consumption-productivity-by-stephen-s-roach-2024-04>

  6. Ben Landau-Taylor: The Three Chinese Civilizations: ‘The Qin/Han state[s]… institutions and culture don’t seem more than usually different from the preceding eras…. Ancient Chinese Civilization… did not dissolve until about 300-400 AD, as the Cao Wei/Jin state crumbled…. “Medieval Chinese Civilization” arose in the 600s with the Sui/Tang state… [with] manorial landlords and provincial officials… mobilizing the local peasantry to construct local irrigation works and land reclamation projects. (In contrast, Ancient Chinese Civilization’s instrument of expansion probably was centralized irrigation megaprojects organized by national authorities.)… Medieval Chinese Civilization’s most distinctive institutions and cultural features… the imperial examination system and the scholar-bureaucrats (displacing the scholar-courtiers of Ancient Chinese Civilization)…. [With] the dividing line somewhere around 400 AD… history makes a lot more sense…. <https://www.benlandautaylor.com/p/the-three-chinese-civilizations>

  7. Kyle Chan: Why Chinese EVs will not take over the world: ‘Other automakers can leverage the same Chinese supply chain as well as manufacturing innovations like gigacasting. Plus, image and brand matter as much as price and performance. Look at Japanese cars… <https://www.high-capacity.com/p/why-chinese-evs-will-not-take-over>

  8. Neofascism: John Elledge: An incomplete list of things which failed British Prime Minister Liz Truss blames, hates or has threatened to abolish: ‘The OBR. The Treasury. The Bank of England. Andew Bailey, the governor of the bank of England. The Supreme Court. The Human Rights Act…. [41 items omitted] The people who blame her (“they’re either very stupid or very malevolent”). The war in Ukraine. Dilyn the Dog…. More—quite possibly much more—to come…. “Why me?” Liz Truss reports thinking…. “Why now?” The event in question was the death of the Queen… [which] was not, in fact, about Liz Truss… <https://jonn.substack.com/p/an-incomplete-list-of-things-which?publication_id=255975&post_id=143676152>

  9. Journamalism: Jim Romanesko (2011): Memo from 1970: ‘A Plan for Putting the GOP on TV News’: ‘John Cook found “a remarkable document buried deep within the Richard Nixon Presidential Library” that addresses how to circumvent the “prejudices of network news” and deliver “pro-administration” stories to heartland television viewers… <https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2011/memo-from-1970-a-plan-for-putting-the-gop-on-tv-news/>

  10. Steve Inskeep: How my NPR colleague failed at “viewpoint diversity”: ‘Uri Berliner gave a perfect example of the kind of journalism he says he’s against…. [His] errors… make NPR look bad, because it’s embarrassing that an NPR journalist would make so many…. His defenders—and he has some!—have taken to admitting them, then adding words to the effect of: I hope this doesn’t obscure his “larger point”!… He writes of a dismaying experience with his managers: “I asked why we keep using that word that many Hispanics hate—Latinx.” Why indeed?… NPR does not generally use the term. I did a search at npr.org for the previous 90 days. I found: 197 uses of Latino, 201 uses of Latina, And just nine uses of “Latinx,” usually by a guest on NPR who certainly has the right to say it… <https://steveinskeep.substack.com/p/how-my-npr-colleague-failed-at-viewpoint>

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SubStack NOTES:

Economics: This from the extremely sharp Branko is just wrong:

Branko Milanovic: Why not Keynes?: ‘Keynes’ uneasy relationship with income distribution: I was asked several times, and most recently only a couple days ago, why in Visions of Inequality I do not discuss Keynes. He doesn’t have a chapter like the other six authors and when I mention Keynes it is only in passing and simply in relationship to the marginal propensity to consume. My answer is twofold. First,  I think that Keynes was not interested in income distribution. And, more importantly, at one point where he clearly could have, or even should have, brought income distribution into discussion he declined to do so and decided to ignore it… <branko2f7.substack.com/p/why-not-keynes>

Cf.: The very beginning of Chapter 24 of Keynes’s General Theory:

John Maynard Keynes (1936: The General Theory of Employment, Interest & Money: Chapter 24. Concluding Notes on the Social Philosophy towards which the General Theory might Lead: ‘THE outstanding faults of the economic society in which we live are its failure to provide for full employment and its arbitrary and inequitable distribution of wealth and incomes. The bearing of the foregoing theory on the first of these is obvious. But there are also two important respects in which it is relevant to the second… <marxists.org/reference/subject/economic…>

I think much of Keynes’s argument about the effect of thoroughgoing Keynesian policies on wealth distribution and plutocracy is wrong, but he is concerned with it—” arbitrary and inequitable distribution of wealth and incomes”—and does make an argument. And much of Keynes’s argument about the effect of thoroughgoing Keynesian policies on wealth distribution and plutocracy is right.

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Economics: Trying to look through the monthly dataflow at the underlying economic realities, I think Tej Parikh has got this one right. Wages do appear to be moderating. Higher-for-longer interest rates will produce tighter financial conditions. The laggy shelter data points reported in the future should drag monthly inflation measures down. The Federal Reserve should look through the monthly data and the lags, should have focused in March on where the economy is likely to be in September 2025, and should focus in June on where the economy is likely to be come December 2025. It, in my estimation should have and should cut rates at both meetings, rather than validate the market-driven further tightening of monetary conditions:

Tej Parikh: A contrarian take on the US inflation freakout: ‘Not as bad as it looks—better for the Fed to keep calm, and carry on?…. Last week’s core CPI growth for March came in at a 0.359 per cent month-on-month, against a consensus of 0.3. A ‘whopping’ 0.059 percentage points higher…. Best to understand why it came in higher than expected first…. Shelter is itself driven by “Owners’ Equivalent Rent of Residences”. This is the BLS’ estimate of what owner-occupiers would pay if they rented their homes. It gets a chunky 34 per cent weight in core CPI…. The Fed targets PCE inflation. That measure places less emphasis on OER (core PCE gives it only a 13 per cent weight). It also measures insurance inflation net of claims.… The Fed’s emphasis on data dependence has tied its hands. It is finding it hard to ignore the run of three above expectation CPI prints, despite the detail, forward dynamics, and PCE all looking benign. Given how restrictive real rates are, pockets of economic weakness and where underlying inflation is—excluding all the noise—the Fed probably still needs to cut rates… <https://www.ft.com/content/39af38ed-f493-4ad6-b6e3-3e4777ecdbbb>

I mean: there have now been 75 basis-points of real monetary tightening since late 2022-early 2023. Tell me what things that have changed about inflation outcomes and the inflation outlook would justify that:

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Neofascism: All of the cries for Trump not to be prosecuted—for anything—no matter where on the political spectrum they come from are, at base, claims that Donald Trump is the kind of person whom the law ought to protect but ought not to bind:

Josh Micah Marshall: The Dominating & The Dominated: One of Trump’s great powers is that he is like a heavy magnet of distorted thinking. When he comes into proximity people start thinking stupid things, asking stupid questions. What opinion should we, who are not prosecutors, have toward a chronic lawbreaker who is charged with breaking the laws he broke? Will it make him stronger? Were the laws broken enough? On the simplest level the first question has always seemed easy to me…. One of Trump’s accomplices literally already went to jail for this. Indeed, he did so on charges brought by the Trump Justice Department…. This trial… in its substance is less grave than the other three prosecutions. Let’s stop there. How could it not be? Two of the others are tied to an attempted overthrow of the federal government. Perhaps the gravest crime possible. The other is absconding with boxes and boxes of highly classified documents… <https://public.hey.com/p/y8KNXAP4K1z3kdCPFcNV8a7d>

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Understanding Book-Classification ISBN Numbers & the Current Limits of MAMLMs

My view: MAMLMs—Modern Advanced Machine-Learning Models have significantly less in the way of parsimonious truth-based internal representations of the world than their boosters claim…

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Ezra Klein writes:

Ezra Klein: ‘“I have a child who is also 2e and has been part of the NYC G&T program”, the nonsentient chatbot wrote to a group of human parents. “We’ve had a positive experience with the citywide program, specifically with the program at The Anderson School”. <404media.co/faceb…> I keep thinking about this. Meta’s AI doesn’t know it’s lying. It is not trying to deceive. Its relationship with truth has nothing to do with ours.I think talking about “artificial general intelligence” misleads us. The capacities here might be general—they may become superhuman!—but this isn’t intelligence rooted in the world, intelligence that knows when it is speaking honestly and when it is confabulating. It is deeply alien…. I don’t think we are nearly ready for a world thickly populated with completely convincing bullshit… <https://www.threads.net/@ezraklein/post/C6B12qtuvo_>

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I think Ezra is approaching this wrong: Facebook’s ChatBot is claiming to have a child in the NYC G&T program because that is what it has been trained to say by the RLHF that has tuned it. It could have been subjected to a different kind of RLHF, which would then have produced a result like:

The process of scanning the internet and my subsequent training leads me to calculate that a likely response by a human, if this question were asked of a human on a discussion forum on the internet, might well take the form of: “I have a child who is also 2e and has been part of the NYC G&T program. We’ve had a positive experience with the citywide program, specifically with the program at The Anderson School”…

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Simply prefix every ChatGPT4 and related GPT MAMLM ChatBot answer with “The process of scanning the internet and my subsequent training leads me to calculate that a likely response by a human, if this question were asked of a human on a discussion forum on the internet, might well take the form of…” Do that, and most of Ezra Klein’s talk about models that “may become superhuman!—but… not intelligence rooted in the world… that knows… when it is confabulating…” vanish away.

Think of it. The real difficulties with earlier models were (a) parsing natural-language inputs and (b) providing full-scope answers. If answers can be channeled into relatively few categories, and if input can be restricted to a small vocabulary of action words combined with modifier terms, then previous generations of models could seem equally as “sparks of AGI”. Google could have put a faux-AGI wrapper around Google Search, for example. Start each answer with: “The process of scanning the internet and my subsequent training leads me to calculate that the ten web pages that might perhaps be of the most use to you are…”

And consider what resources ChatGPT4 is currently throwing at the problem. I have been told by people who ought to know that ChatGPT4 is burning $0.05 of electricity per query-answer. Electricity costs about $0.05 per kWh. That’s a full kWh per answer, delivered in perhaps a little less than a minute—figure 50 kW in electricity, which might make sense if the total electricity drain of the system focusing on creating an inference response right now to a query were enough to power 50 NVIDIA A100s.

The human brain runs on 50 W—one-thousandth as much, unless my guesses are way, way off. On any using-language-to-understand the world metric, those 50 W massively outperform what can be done by a thousand times as much power in crystalized, doped sand trying to think.

Not that the accomplishments of ChatGPT4 are not amazing. But they are, to put it politely, very uneven for something that presents itself as as fluent in English understanding and comprehension and as confident and authoritative in its answers as it is.

Consider a question I was asking ChatGPT4 yesterday:

Q: What other novels are in the same sequence as Sarah Monette’s Melusine?

ChatGPT4: Sarah Monette’s novel Melusine is part of a four-novel sequence called “The Doctrine of Labyrinths.” The other novels in this sequence are:

  1. The Virtu (2006)

  2. The Mirador (2007)

  3. Corambis (2009)

These novels continue the story of Felix Harrowgate and Mildmay the Fox, exploring their complex lives and the magical, intricate world Monette has created.

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Pretty good, no? 

Now the sentence “What other novels are in the same sequence as Sarah Monette’s Melusine?” did not (before this) exist on the internet. Or so says Google Search—it returns zero hits for this exact sentence. Google Search does return as relevant 8 hits to pages with titles

  • “Sarah Monette Books In Order” (2),

  • “Sarah Monette” (2),

  • “Melusine” (2),

  • “Melusine Series in Order”, and

  • “‘Doctrine of Labyrinths’ series”. 

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I suspect that ChatGPT4 nails this because one of the pages the Google search returns is the Sarah Monette Wikipedia page, which contains the sequence:

Doctrine of Labyrinths series —- (2005). Mélusine (1st ed.). New York: Ace Books . pp. 1–432. ISBN 978–0441012862. —- (2006). The Virtu (hardcover ed.). Ace Books. pp. 1–439. ISBN 978–0441014040 —- (2007). The Mirador (hardcover ed.). Ace Books. pp. 1–426. ISBN 978–0441015009. —- (2009). Corambis (hardcover ed.). Ace Books. pp. 1–421.[ISBN] 978–0441015962.”

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And ChatGPT4 gloms onto this page.

But how much of the Wikipedia page was ChatGPT4 actually able to internalize in its training? In at least one sense, disturbingly little for something that presents itself as so fluent in English and so knowledgeable.


Let’s continue the conversation:

Q: What is the ISBN number of “The Virtu”?

ChatGPT4: The ISBN number of “The Virtu” by Sarah Monette is 978–0441014190.

This is not so good. The true ISBN for “The Virtu” is, as the Wikipedia page says, 978–0441014040.

In fact, there is no such ISBN—the identifier ChatGPT4 delivers fails to deliver the last-digit checksum. Change the checksum to pass—replace the final 0 with the checksum-consistent 4—and we discover that ISBN 978–0441014194 is the ISBN for The Tainted by Glenda Larke.

If it were to get the checksum right, ChatGPT4’s training would somewhere within itself have to represent:

‘Virtu’ + ‘ISBN’ → ‘978’ + ‘-’ + ‘0’ + ‘441’ +’01410’ + ‘0’

This would be the way that ChatGPT4 would “understand” that the ISBN number for the (hardcover) version of “The Virtu” is composed of:

  • 978 (it’s a book!)

  • - (separator)

  • 0 (from an English-language publisher)

  • 441 (to wit, Ace Books)

  • 01410 (and this is the separate identifier for the hardcover edition of “The Virtu”)

  • 0 (finally: checksum)

Let’s see to what extent ChatGPT4 knows these things:

Q: What is the numeric prefix ISBN element for a book? Be concise. A: The numeric prefix ISBN element for a book, known as the GS1 Prefix, is either “978” or “979”

Q: What is the numeric code ISBN element for a publication in an English-speaking country? Be concise. A: For English-speaking regions, the group identifier is usually “0” or “1”.

Q: What is the numeric code ISBN element for a publication by Ace Books? Be concise. A: The numeric ISBN publisher code for Ace Books, which is a part of the Penguin Group, is typically “441” or “0441”.

Q: What is the numeric code individual book ISBN–13 publication element for the hardcover edition of the book “The Virtu” by Sarah Monette? Be concise. A: The ISBN–13 publication element for the hardcover edition of “The Virtu” by Sarah Monette is 978–0–441–01397–9.

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Three right answers and then one wrong one. We expect an answer of 01410. We get 9780441013979. 9780441013979 ≠ 01410. And, once again, 9780441013979 is not a valid ISBN. The correct checksum digit is not “0” but rather “5”. ISBN–13 9780441013975 is for “Balance of Trade: A Liaden Universe Novel”, by Steve Miller and Sharon Lee.

So while it “knows” the book prefix, the English-speaking group identifier, the Ace Books registrant ID, it does not know that “01410” belongs to the (hardcover edition of) “The Virtu”. And if it is not explicitly asked to calculate the checksum, it does not know that the last digit of an ISBN is a checksum.

It is at this point that MAMLM-are-the-road-to-superhuman-AGI—Modern Advanced Machine-Learning Models are the road to superhuman Artificial General Intelligence—boosters say “scaling laws!”

ChatGPT4 has 1500 dimensions along which to map human language with its 175 billion parameters. All we need is another 10x increase in each dimension of model size. Which would drive the electricity cost of answering questions to 10 x 10 = 100 times as much = $5/minute = $300/hours, which is of the same order of magnitude as I would charge. I would say: we are going to need more than just “scaling” to get to anything truly wonderful. (More truly wonderful: ChatGPT4 is wonderful!) But people like Dario Amodei say:

Dario Amodei: Interviewed by Ezra Klein: ‘OpenAI… 2018… GPT-1…h used something like 100,000 times less computational power than the models we build today…. We found these very smooth [scaling-law] patterns… projection[s] that… [with] $10 billion [spent] on these models, instead of the $10,000 we were spending then… all of these wondrous things would happen…. The underlying technology… a smooth exponential… can be eerily preternaturally predictable…. I would say… three to 18 months… [is]s going to change how people think about A.I…. [Already] the models, despite the fact that they’re wrong about a bunch of things… often perform better than the average of the data they see…. In the case of arithmetic… some underlying algorithm [is] used to add the numbers. And it’s simpler for the [neural network] models to hit on that algorithm than it is for them to do this complicated thing…. This connects to things like Occam’s razor and simplicity and parsimony in science. There’s some relatively simple web of truth out there in the world…. All the true things are connected… <https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/12/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-dario-amodei.html>

Amodei is thus inverting Plato’s Parable of the Cave: LLMs already—he says—see the shadows cast on the walls of the patterns-of-language cave, and are already using them to build representations of the actual three-dimensional reality of the objects casting shadows inside their neural networks. The standard example is that they “know” things like: king + (woman - man) → queen.

But we do know that all scaling laws and processes have limits.

And we do know that 1500 dimensions of classification from and 175 billion parameters of neural network-conducted classification of phrases and construction of a flexible metric of nearness-in-meaning—that those are not enough for ChatGPT4 to “learn” enough to “understand” ISBNs.


Appendix:

And then there is the question about ISBNs to which ChatGPT4 gives its longest answer:

Q: What is the checksum digit that needs to be added to “978–044101404” too make it a valid ISBN–13 identifier? Be concise.

A: To calculate the checksum digit for an ISBN–13, we use the following formula:

  1. Take each digit of the ISBN, from left to right.

  2. Multiply each odd-positioned digit (from the left) by 1 and each even-positioned digit by 3.

  3. Sum all the products.

  4. Find the remainder when this sum is divided by 10.

  5. Subtract this remainder from 10 to get the checksum digit. If the remainder is 0, then the checksum digit is 0.

Let’s apply this method to “978–044101404”:

  • Ignore the hyphens for calculation: 978044101404

  • Add an unknown checksum digit x: 978044101404x

Now, calculate:

Sum=(9×1)+(7×3)+(8×1)+(0×3)+(4×1)+(4×3)+(1×1)+(0×3)+(1×1)+(4×3)+(0×1)+(𝑥×3)

Sum=9+21+8+0+4+12+1+0+1+12+0+3𝑥

Sum=68+3𝑥

To find the checksum 𝑥x, solve:

Final Sum=68+3𝑥≡0 (mod 10)

Let’s calculate the value of 𝑥x that satisfies this equation.

The checksum digit that needs to be added to “978–044101404” to make it a valid ISBN–13 identifier is 0. 

Thus, the complete ISBN–13 is “978–0441014040”.


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Why Is the Apple Vision Pro Going to Get Its Shot, While the Humane AI Pin Is Not Going to?

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I betcha the Humane AI Pin people looked at Apple VisionPro’s pulling in more than $1,000,000,000 in sales revenue in less than two and a half months for something that is not a product, but rather just a kludgy simulation of a product.

I betcha they then said: We can charge $699 plus $24/month for our kludgy simulation of our product too! The same kinds of people who plunk down money to be AVP alpha-testers so that they can pretend they are living in the future will plunk down money to be HAIP alpha-testers too!

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Between the start of February and mid-April 2024 Apple Computer has managed to sell somewhere north of 250,000 $4,000 Apple VisionPro headsets—for a total revenue of more than one billion dollars, and at least a 300 million-dollar cash-flow offset to the cost of developing the device in the first place. And yet the Apple VisionPro is not the product. The product is an AR glasses-iike “spatial” or perhaps “ambient” computing system that we do not yet know how to make. A future glasses form-factor product that accomplishes the same ambient or spatial computing tasks that the Apple VisionPro accomplishes—plus bonus superior-quality immersive VR features—would indeed be insanely great. But at the moment all we have a simulation of the product, albeit a simulation that can be very nice for those whose eyes and brain can adapt to the experience, who love the immersive VR, who find it a very effective tool for virtually carrying very large external displays around with their laptop, and who don’t mind having two iPads and an immense pair of ski goggles on their face.

But still, $4000.

That brings us to the Humane AI pin:

David Pierce: Humane AI Pin review: not even close: ‘For $699 and $24 a month…. I stand in front of a store or restaurant, press and hold on the touchpad, and say, “Look at this restaurant and tell me if it has good reviews.” The AI Pin snaps a photo… pings… image recognition models, figures [it] out… scours the web… returns[:]… Tacombi has great reviews, it might say. People really like the tacos and the friendly staff…. Very neat… would take much longer and many more steps on a smartphone…. I find I want what Humane is selling even more than I expected. A one-tap way to say, “Text Anna and tell her I’ll be home in a half-hour,” or “Remember to call Mike tomorrow afternoon,” or “Take a picture of this and add it to my shopping list” would be amazing. I hadn’t realized how much of my phone usage consists of these one-step things, all of which would be easier and faster without the friction and distraction of my phone. But the AI Pin doesn’t work. I don’t know how else to say it… <https://www.theverge.com/24126502/humane-ai-pin-review>

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And:

Marques Brownlee: MKBHDs For Everything: ‘The Humane AI Pin… is a brand new product in a really interesting new form factor…. Unfortunately it’s also the new worst product I think I’ve ever reviewed in its current state<https://stratechery.com/2024/mkbhds-for-everything/>

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Cf. to Marques Brownlee on the Apple VisionPro two months earlier:

Marques Brownlee: ‘Attempting tomorrow’s ideas… with today’s technology This is my thoughts on the weight/straps FYI…. First time I tried Vision Pro: Damn this display is amazing and the eye tracking is like magic and this feels very future and also it’s a little heavy Second time: immersion factor is still so high. Special videos are hit or miss, you gotta get the distance right. And wow this thing is really, heavy, not sure how long I’d be able to wear this Third time: Damn this thing is heavy. Also the typing experience is decent. There’s some new cool apps to check out. But wow. So heavy… <https://twitter.com/search?q=%22vision%20pro%22%20(from%3AMKHBD)>

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I do not think Marques Brownlee is or is going to soon become a frequent AVP viewer. Yet there is still a huge contrast between his view of AVP and his view of HAIP. Perhaps it is as John Gruber said:

John Gruber: Underpromise & Overdeliver: ‘The sort of 1.0 review you want to see: It’s good at what it already does and I can see how it could do more in the future. The one and only review of the Humane AI Pin that expresses a sentiment like that is Raymond Wong’s for Inverse… <https://daringfireball.net/linked/2024/04/14/humane-underpromise-overdeliver>

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Perhaps that is the reason for the different reactions. Perhaps to be successful a version 1.0 release that is really a demo of a product in the form of a kludgy simulation of a product has to make people think:

  • This 1.0 demo kludgy simulation is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick—it actually is useful in some cases.

  • We can now see what the version 3.0 of this product will be.

  • Building 1.0 impresses us that the team is competent, pointed in the right direction, and has the resources to build the 3.0 version that we would want.

  • Therefore we are willing to become ground-floor early-stage supporting investing customers for the ultimate product.

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I am reminded of Bill Janeway’s explanations of how “Enterprise Software” used to work back in THE DAY, with contrasts to how modern VC works. What you would initially ship was something for which you would then offer a:

Bill Janeway: The Rise & Fall of “Enterprise Software”: ‘Perpetual, non-exclusive license paid upfront in cash by the customer for code that was inevitably incomplete, a work in progress, which came with 20 percent of that license fee due annually so that the vendor would keep the stuff running as the environment in which the code was running continued to evolve…. The financial consequences of this model were absolutely terrific. It meant that the rich customer was funding the poor startup with no issuance of equity, no dilution of ownership, and of the upside rewards available to the investors and the entrepreneurial founders of the business—the cheapest capital imaginable… <https://businessofsoftware.org/2019/08/rise-fall-enterprise-software-bill-janeway-warburg-pincus-bos-europe-2018/>

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Perhaps this is what Apple is trying to do with AVP—but on the “creator-retail” rather than the enterprise level. Perhaps this is the track that the people behind the HAIP hoped for it to follow.

There have been a number of ways of trying to get first cogs and gears, then electric relays and switches, then vacuum tubes, and now crystal sand to get up and dance in sync with human thought: the Difference Engine, punch cards, MEMEX, FORTRAN, UNIX and its command line, Xanadu time-sharing, Windows-Icons-Menus-Pointer, DynaBook, the PC, Apple Newton, Workstations, General Magic, Blackberry, Palm, the iPhone, Oculus, Google Glass, Alexa, Modern Advanced Machine-Learning Models (MAMLM), and much more. And next… what?

What determines which systems get their chance, rather than being cut off on or before launch? And what determines which systems that can launched actually find a computing-power and human-accessibility fit?

One thing that does seem to be becoming increasingly clear is that venture capital AG (after Google) does not serve humanity’s interests in technological exploration and development very well:

Benjamin Sandofsky: Oh the Humanity: ‘Humane raised $230 Million and spent six years to ship an “Ai Pin”… [that] shipped with fraction of the features promised… that… fail most of the time…. Too heavy… atrocious battery life… projector… useless in daylight… input system… awkward and slow…. [But] this isn’t the story of a young man given too much money and power…. Humane’s founders worked on the first iPhone…. In 2018, there was more money flowing into Silicon Valley than there were quality startups to invest in. That’s OK for VCs because they actually make money whether or not they pick a winner. They charge “maintenance fees” in the range of 1.5% to 2.5%, so when an endowment writes a VC a check for nine figures, the firm makes millions a year. This meant that Humane didn’t have to be a knockout, they just had to be the last single person at the bar at closing time…. When interest rates went up in 2022, startups suddenly found it harder to raise money. Investors were suddenly interested in—GASPprofitability…. Humane needed to ship something to look like a later stage company, but as we now know, their hardware sucked. They decided to latch on to AI…. The problems with Humane began at their seed stage. They should have tested the idea faster, and rejected it right away. I get that hardware is different than software… <https://www.sandofsky.com/humane/>

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The requirements of the venture capitalist ecosystem today made it all but certain that the HAIP team’s work would not be well-focused. Of course, neither Microsoft Research’s work back in THE DAY nor Google Research’s work today is well-focused either…

AVP is going to get its chance to turn from a technology demonstration and simulation into a product. The HAIP is not. Is that how it should be—that the first is actually much closer to being a product than the other? (Bear in mind that developing the HAIP has so far cost $150 million, while developing the AVP has spent… only the Storm God of the Semites knows how much to date…) My view is that the eyes—glasses—are an interesting place, the wrist—watches—are an interesting place, the hand—smartphones—are an interesting place; but that the chest-attached broach is not so interesting.

But what do I know? Not much.

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BRIEFLY NOTED: FOR 2024-04-17 We

The Frenchness of English; dog preferences; very briefly noted; Trying Again to Understand Recent Monetary Policy; Sundowning in America—Donald’s dementia—& England ca. 1900 as the Only True Steampower-Industrial Society EVAR, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-15 Mo…

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ONE VIDEO: Is English Just Badly Pronounced French?

It really is a creole that escaped from its bounds…

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ONE IMAGE: Multiple Dog Beds, Dog Rugs, & Dog Cushions…

…but where does Rosie most prefer to hang out? In the dirt of the flowerbed:

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Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Economics: John Authors & al.: The Great Rates Descent Will Be Nasty, Brutish and Long: ‘Points of Return is launching The Year of Descending Dangerously, a suite of indicators that we will update monthly. The chances are that it will take longer and move more slowly than many now seem to anticipate, and that central bankers will need to keep treading cautiously. We hope that these indicators will help everyone find the right path…. … <https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-opinion-rate-cuts-covid-inflation-central-banks/?cmpid=BBD032624_AUT>

  2. Economic History: Krishan Kumar (1979): Prophecy & Progress: the sociology of industrial and post-industrial society: ‘This view of the exotic nature of the formative period of industrialism has come to seem increasingly attractive, as new features alien to that period appear, or older ones reappear. So for instance George Steiner notes a widespread current alertness to, and anxiety about, violence and disorder. But, he observes, ‘when we lament safeties, courtesies, legalities now eroded, what we are in fact referring to is the belle epoque of middle class hegemony, notably in Western Europe, from about the 1830s to the Second World War.’ He cautions us against drawing topical comparisons on the basis of this ‘nagging sense of paradise lost’. For “far from being the historical rule, the stabilities, the general absence of violence, the law-abidingness, the sanctity of property and contract, the spaciousness of work and play which we associate, erroneously or not, with the epoch from Waterloo to the economic and social crises of the 1930s, were an exception, a rare and fragile entente between ruler and ruled… So far as Western history goes, the long peace of the nine¬ teenth century begins to look like a very special providence…” <https://archive.org/details/prophecyprogress0000kuma/page/328/mode/2up>

  3. J. B. Bury: The Idea of Progress: An Inquiry into Its Origins & Growth (1931): ‘Thus, while Turgot might have subscribed to Voltaire’s assertion that history is largely “un ramas de crimes, de folies, et de malheurs,” his view of the significance of man’s sufferings is different and almost approaches the facile optimism of Pope—“whatever is, is right.” He regards all the race’s actual experiences as the indispensable mechanism of Progress, and does not regret its mistakes and calamities. Many changes and revolutions, he observes, may seem to have had most mischievous effects; yet every change has brought some advantage, for it has been a new experience and therefore has been instructive. Man advances by committing errors. The history of science shows (as Fontenelle had pointed out) that truth is reached over the ruins of false hypotheses… <https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.187286/page/n2/mode/1up>

  4. Frank Manual: Prophets of Paris (1962): ‘The prophets made pronouncements on the same overwhelming questions confronting Western man: on the nature of love and the institution of the family, on the uses of philosophical history and its relation to social action, on the property system and the ideal mode of compensation for work, on the future of man’s religious predicament, on the relative virtues of reason and the imaginative faculty, on the merits of violent political revolution and the power of persuasion. If the prophets did not agree among themselves, they bequeathed a spectrum of moral alternatives, many of which have been revived—in modified form, to be sure—in the course of the last century. This rich body of teaching on the social, moral, and religious dilemmas of man has not been lost, even though the works themselves are now rarely read outside of an academic context… <https://archive.org/details/prophetsofparis0000fran>

  5. Tech: David Pierce: Humane AI Pin review: not even close: ‘I want what Humane is selling even more than I expected…. I hadn’t realized how much of my phone usage consists of… one-step things, all of which would be easier and faster without the friction and distraction of my phone. But the AI Pin doesn’t work…. I hope Humane keeps going. I hope it builds in this basic functionality and figures out how to do more of it locally on the device without killing the battery. I hope it gets faster and more reliable. I hope Humane decides to make a watch, or smart glasses, or something more deliberately designed to be held in your hand. I hope it partners with more music services, more productivity apps, and more sources of knowledge about the internet and the world. I hope the price goes down… <https://www.theverge.com/24126502/humane-ai-pin-review>

  6. MAMLM: Casey Newton: Humane’s Folly & AI hype hangover: ‘The tech industry’s overpromising about generative AI is starting to catch up with it…. Hardware is so hard compared to software. The latter can launch as a minimum viable product; declare itself in beta and warn users that it may often break; and still attract users who will volunteer to test features, find bugs, and build community…. [Meanwhile,] consumers are being trained to lower their expectations for what AI can actually do for them…. [But] the exponential improvements that LLMs have made with each major new model release suggest that the current period of relative sluggishness may not last for long… <https://www.platformer.news/humanes-folly-and-the-ai-hype-hangover/>

  7. Central Country: Minxin Pei: Say More…—PROJECT SYNDICATE: ‘It is very difficult to know what ordinary Chinese people think of Xi or his performance. On domestic policy issues, such as Xi’s handling of the economy, we can infer the public’s likely impression based on official economic statistics. And based on factors like deflation, high youth unemployment, and falling housing prices, it is safe to assume that Xi’s image as a capable steward of the economy has been dented. On geopolitics, however, it is harder to make even educated guesses. The Chinese government tightly controls the flow of information about the outside world, and most Chinese do not have as good a sense about geopolitics as they do about the domestic economy… <https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/an-interview-with-minxin-pei-about-the-sentinel-state-china-economy-surveillance-repression-2024-04>

  8. Plague: Tomas Pueyo: Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance (2020): ‘If we choose to fight hard, the fight will be sudden, then gradual. We will be locked in for weeks, not months. Then, we will get more and more freedoms back. It might not be back to normal immediately. But it will be close, and eventually back to normal. And we can do all that while considering the rest of the economy too…. First, you act quickly and aggressively…. If you hammer the coronavirus, within a few weeks you’ve controlled it and you’re in much better shape to address it. Now comes the longer-term effort to keep this virus contained until there’s a vaccine…. Efficient testing, efficient tracing, travel bans, efficient isolating and efficient quarantining… <https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56>

  9. Neofascism: Paul Campos: The dream world of the Trumpist intellectual: ‘At the core of… this… [is] the Fascist Contradiction…. that the Nation is… great and pure and chosen… but simultaneously decadent and depraved and almost past all saving, hence the need for its resurrection via the leadership of the Leader. This is amusingly (or maybe not) captured by Trump’s claims that America had ceased to be great by 2016, became great again for exactly four years, then ceased to be great on January 20th—or perhaps January 6th—2021, but can become great again in a few months… <https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/04/the-dream-world-of-the-trumpist-intellectual>

  10. Cognition: Annalee Newitz: A brief, weird history of brainwashing:

    ‘L. Ron Hubbard, Operation Midnight Climax, and stochastic terrorism—the race for mind control changed America forever…. The Chinese word Hunter used at the hearing—xinao (), translated as “wash brain”—has a long history going back to scientifically minded Chinese philosophers of the late 19th century, who used it to mean something more akin to enlightenment.  Yet Hunter’s sensational tales still became an important part of the disinformation and pseudoscience that fueled a “mind-control race” during the Cold War…. While the science never exactly panned out, residual beliefs fostered by this bizarre conflict continue to play a role in ideological and scientific debates to this day… <https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/12/1090726/brainwashing-mind-control-history-operation-midnight-climax/>

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SubStack NOTES:

Economics: Trying Again to Understand Recent Monetary Policy in the United States: Aha! Here is a veritable pivot!:

Craig Torres: Powell Signals Rate-Cut Delay After Run of Inflation Surprises: ‘Fed chair said appropriate to give policy further time to work. Central bank can keep rates steady for ‘as long as needed’…. “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Powell said Tuesday in a panel discussion alongside Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem at the Wilson Center in Washington. “Given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it is appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide us,” he said… <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/powell-signals-high-rates-for-longer-due-to-persistent-inflation

Over the past fifteen years, since April 16, 2009, I see eight suberas of monetary policy in the United States:

  1. Up until late 2013: gradual recognition that we are in an era of secular stagnation and that the monetary (and fiscal!) policy stimulative response has been insufficient and subpar.

  2. Mid-2013: the “Taper Tantrum”—a significant monetary policy mistake that further stretched out the period of ænemic recovery.

  3. Late-2013 through 2017: The full secular-stagnation normal.

  4. 2017 to March 2020: Failed liftoff away from the zero interest-rate lower bound.

  5. March 2020 to February 2022: plague time.

  6. February to July 2022: post-plague normalization.

  7. July to September 2022: shift to restrictive monetary policy.

  8. September 2022 to present: waiting for a shoe—any shoe—to drop.

I track these suberas by the behavior of the interest rate that ought to be key for managing the interest-sensitive segments of aggregate demand—structures and, through the exchange rate, net exports—the inflation-indexed Ten-Year Treasury TIPS, the blue line in the graph below:

(The red line is the Ten-Year Treasury nominal rate; the green line is the inflation breakeven.)

The February to July 2022 normalization brought the stance of monetary policy back to its high secular-stagnation era level. The July to September 2022 tightening brought the stance of monetary policy considered as the slope of the safe and collateralizable-asset numeraire intertemporal price system back to its pre-Great Depression level. (Do note that that level was, back then, seen as depressed: it was a time of “global savings glut”, after all.)

I confess that I thought that during the current subera (8)—waiting for a shoe, any shoe, to drop—the Federal Reserve would manage interest rates in an attempt to keep the long real rate—the Ten-Year Treasury TIPS—at a level of about 1.75%. Thus I was very surprised last fall when they let it march upwards to 2.5%, before using their jawbones to talk it back down to the pre-Great Recession level. But now they are allowing it to rise again. And I am not sure why. These interest rates will have effects that will inflict their full force on the economy in eighteen months. Do they really think that in the Fall of 2025 the economy will be in a state in which hitting it with demand-relevant real interest rates higher than any seen so far in this millennium will be appropriate?

I read this as the Federal Reserve hivemind having reached two conclusions:

  1. It no longer believes that considerations as to what it thinks r* is can guide monetary policy and its adjustment.

  2. The major risk is not a deep recession and a return to the zero interest-rate lower bound, but rather some sort of rebound in inflation and a consequent de-anchoring of inflation expectations.

We shall see:

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Sundowning in America: Yastreblyansky is puzzled by what Donald Trump is trying to say:

Yastreblyansky: So Vicious, So Horrible, So Beautiful: ‘Trump finds a poem…. There is no evidence that Robert E. Lee ever said “Never fight uphill, me boys!”…. I’ll note that the case against his being a good general makes Gettysburg its main example… because he insisted on sending attacking forces uphill, against his staff’s advice…. “Never fight uphill” could have been a good summary of what he did wrong in the battle, but there’s no evidence he ever recognized it…. I don’t find any suggestions that there was one “big general” whose death made the crucial difference.… When you try to find out what story Trump is trying to tell here, you find only examples of Trump trying to tell the same story, three times, going back to May 2018…. It’s a Lost Cause story, clearly, about how Lee’s genius really was going to achieve the impossible, except for this dead general who failed to tell him about the uphill fighting thing before he died. If only he could have called! He was the one who said, “Never fight uphill, me boys!” but the message never reached the commander. (Incidentally, I’m pretty sure the one who really said “Never fight uphill” was the Western Zhou–dynasty master strategist Sunzi, in his Art of War: “It is a military axiom not to advance uphill against the enemy, nor to oppose him when he comes downhill”)… <yastreblyansky.substack.com/p/so-viciou…>

If you wanted to turn what Trump is saying here into coherence, it would be this:

  • Thomas Jonathan “Stonewall” Jackson was Robert E. Lee’s chief lieutenant in the Army of Northern Virginia.

  • Thomas Jonathan “Stonewall” Jackson was killed by friendly fire at the Battle of Chancellorsville on May 10, 1863.

  • On July 3, 1863, Major General George Pickett commanding his three brigades (Kemper Garnett, and Armistad) plus four others (Lane, Brockenbrough, Marshall, Davis) charged uphill at the center of the Union Army of the Potomac line on Cemetery Ridge.

  • Nobody had told Robert E. Lee that the Army of the Potomac troops deployed on Cemetery Ridge were on, like, a ridge.

  • If anybody had, Lee would not have ordered the assult.

  • But Stonewall Jackson was dead, and there was nobody else in the Army of Northern Virginia to tell him.

Nor, apparently, did Robert E. Lee have eyes to see that the thing on his map marked “Cemetery Ridge” was in fact a ridge…

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England ca. 1900 as the Only True Steampower-Industrial Society EVAR

On the “Sonderweg” of the Anglo-Saxons…

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Adam Tooze <https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-399-industrialization-before>, following a tip from Joseph Francis, sends us to: Economies Past at the University of Cambridge:

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CAMPOP says:

  • Primary sector: agriculture, forestry and fishing;

  • Secondary sector: mining, manufacturing and construction;

  • Tertiary sector: anyone in services.

That has got to be wrong—on the graph, “mining” does not appear to be included in “secondary”: their “secondary” measure appears to be manufacturing and construction only. If it includes mining, things simply do not add up.

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My first thought is that this chart should be accompanied by one (at least before the 1900s) showing total employment by sector would be as illuminating. Both the relative share and the absolute numbers shed a lot of light on each other and on what went down.

The population of England and Wales grew from 2.75 million or o in 1500 to 4.25 million in 1600, 6 million in 1700, 9 million in 1800, and to 32 million in 1900, after all. As many people were employed in agriculture in 1900 as had been in 1800, after all. And the stability of the manufacturing and construction share is half due to the English population explosion that really takes off in the later 1700s, and does not reflect any kind of stasis of the manufacturing sector.

Still, this chart does show elements of English development that should be your focus to understand England’s trajectory:

  • The extraordinary agricultural-productivity revolution of the 1600s and the consequent lower relative demand for labor in agriculture.

  • The rise in manufactures—half to provide something to trade for food (because even with the agricultural revolution food production at home could not fully cope with rising demand from population and wealth), and half because manufactures were the goods most in demand to employ the 10%-points or so of the labor force notionally released from agriculture vis-à-vis some non agricultural-revolution renewed Malthusian-crisis counterfactual.

  • The extraordinary role played by mining.

  • The rise of the tertiary, services sector (which we really do need to subdivide!).

  • Thus the extent to which the Industrial Revolution in England (and Wales) is more a demographic and a globalization proces than an industrial-productivity process—an agricultural-productivity revolution which triggers a population explosion which then outruns even revolutionized agriculture and induces a wheel to manufacturing and manufacturing exports to get the money to import food for the population, à la Clark (2001).

  • Thus the extent to which the modernization experience of England is not one that would thereafter be undergone by all countries. It is not the case, as Karl Marx claimed in the 1867 Preface to Capital, that “the country that is more developed industrially only shows, to the less developed, the image of its own future…”

  • Rather, as Jeff Weintraub channeling Krishan Kumar taught me long ago, England had its own Sonderweg. England had its own separate path of development, its own sundered-way.

  • England was for a time around 1900 in fact the only true steampower-industrial society there ever was or ever would be, others going directly from agrarian-commercial (with industrial elements) to applied-science (with industrial elements) societies.

  • No, I cannot find my marked-up copy of Kumar right now—it is either in a box, in the basement, in the guest bedroom, in Blum Hall, in Evans Hall, or lent out and never returned. Ah. Here it is. The Internet Archive <archive.org> comes through yet again!

  • Kumar: “Evidence from dates as widely scattered as 1801 and 1841 were quoted as illustrative of the same point. Minor movements… [and] isolated crimes… were all built up into a quite misleading picture of the development of a ‘social war’ of revolutionary proportions… set down side-by-side with an account that so emphasized the brutalized and degraded condition of the working classes that it was inconceivable that they could play the role of revolutionary liberators written in for them in Engels’[s] epic drama.…. Given Engels’[s] purpose, there cannot be great reason to complain. The. [Condition of the Working Class in England] indeed remains… vivid, superbly written and in many ways remarkably accurate…. But to make this rhetorical and dramatized account a main ingredient in a model of the industrialization process in general, as later sociologists were to do, is to give it a status it did not earn…. It was bound to be dangerous to start off, as many twentieth century sociologists did, with a preconceived model of ‘modern industrial society’, put together out of the bits and pieces of nineteenth-century European development; and to judge the progress to ‘modernity’ of other societies in its terms…”

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BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-15 Mo

What do we think of the Federal Reserve’s doing a 25-bp policy-rate reduction in June?; Nilay Patel turns SEO into an art form; the distribution of world manufacturing; BREXIT effects on UK video; very briefly noted; & Are Editors Useful? Noah Smith Says: NO!!; READING: Patricia Crone on the Agrarian Landlord-Dominated Gunpowder-Empire as the Normal Climax Societal Order of the East African Plains Ape…; HOISTED: On Ryan Avent’s Meditations on Trumpism; Scratchpad: No, for the Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in June Would Not Be a Mistake…; Trying to Puzzle Through the Current Macro Situation; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-09 Tu…

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SubStack NOTES:

Economics: I agree that a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in June would as a mistake be one “comparable to… [those] the Federal Reserve was making in the summer of 2021…”, but that is because I believe that there was no mistake then—that the Federal Reserve was playing it completely right in the summer of 2021.

That is because of the asymmetry in the loss function. You cannot effectively stimulate the economy if you land at the zero interest-rate lower bound. By contrast, you can always effectively restrict the economy by raising interest rates wherever you are.

Thus waiting to raise rates until you were almost sure that you would not soon be back at the zero lower bound, and then moving fast and far, was in fact optimal monetary policy in the summer of 2021. And that is what the Fed did.

There was no error.

There would be no error in cutting by 25 basis points in June.

But even if it would be an error to cut by 25 basis-points in June, that would be a small beer policy move compared to Fed forbearance in the early Biden years. Monetary conditions as indexed by the Treasury Ten-Year TIPS were kept very loose by the Fed until the start of 2022. Between then and August it tightened by 350 basis points: lowering the real value of the future ten years out by about 35%. That is a huge shift in the intertemporal price system.

A 25 basis-point cut in June with an 0.4 gearing to the Treasury Ten-Year TIPS would raise the real value of the future ten years out by about 1%.

How can these possibly be seen as moves comparable in magnitude?

Lawrence Summers: ‘On current facts, a rate cut in June would be a dangerous and egregious error comparable to the errors the Federal Reserve was making in the summer of 2021. We do not need rate cuts right now… <bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-10/…>

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Spam-Spam-Spam-Spam-Spam: This is the best article I have seen in at least a year about the advertising-attention-ecosystem-driven en*ification of the world wide web, making it a hive of scum and villainy rather than a useful information utility. Nilay Patel is a genius, and the genius of this article is that it makes its point and also makes an example of its point by also partaking of the quintessence of SEO-spam, and thus is both en*ified and not en****ified in a positive Schrödinger’s Cat superposition of the Last Days of the Useful Web:

Nilay Patel: Best printer 2024, best printer for home use, office use, printing labels, printer for school, homework printer you are a printer we are all printers/After a full year of not thinking about printers, the best printer is still whatever random Brother laser printer that’s on sale: ‘Tech/Artificial Intelligence…. It’s been over a year since I last told you to just buy a Brother laser printer, and that article has fallen down the list of Google search results because I haven’t spent my time loading it up with fake updates every so often to gain the attention of the Google search robot. It’s weird because the correct answer to the query “what is the best printer” has not changed, but an entire ecosystem of content farms seems motivated to constantly update articles about printers in response to the incentive structure created by that robot’s obvious preferences. Pointing out that incentive structure and the culture that’s developed around it seems to make a lot of people mad, which is also interesting!… My only ask is that you make this article go viral by sharing it in faux-outrage that the EIC of The Verge has published an article partially generated by AI, because after the buttons I am going to include a bunch of AI-generated copy from Google’s Gemini in order to pad this thing out…<theverge.com/2024/4/2/24117976/best-pri…>

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ONE VIDEO: Financial Times: The BREXIT Effect:

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Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Global Warming: Lawrence Summers & N.K. Singh: The World Is Still on Fire—PROJECT SYNDICATE: World leaders have made big promises and laid out bold plans to mitigate the climate crisis and help the neediest countries adapt…. They must demonstrate that they can fulfill these promises, rather than simply touting new ones…. Setting aside… climate change for a moment, world leaders haven’t even been able to tackle the simplest, most straightforward challenges…. Chad, Haiti, Sudan, and Gaza… [are on] the brink of famine, yet the international response has been slow and muted. This is both a humanitarian disaster in its own right and a symbol of our broader inability to act in the face of a crisis. If the world can’t even get food to starving children, how can it come together to defeat climate change and reorient the global economy?…. Reverse the capital flows, so that the lowest-income countries are receiving more support than they are paying out…. Transform MDBs into big, risk-taking, climate-focused institutions…. Fully fund the International Development Association…. Tackle food security. Last year, the United Nations was able to raise from international donors only about one-third of what it sought for humanitarian relief, and it had to slash its goals for 2024… <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/imf-world-bank-spring-meetings-need-to-get-four-things-right-by-lawrence-h-summers-and-n-k-singh-2024-04>

  2. Economics: Oliver Kim: The Real Development was the Friends We Made Along the Way: ‘Hirschman… [in] his 1958 classic, The Strategy of Economic Development. In it, Hirschman set out to slay the dragon of… [Rosenstein-Rodan’s] Big Push, and replace it with a theory more grounded in reality…. Strategy… [has a] strange central argument—that the scarce resource constraining development is not natural resources or capital or schooling or technology or any other tangible factor, but the ability to make development decisions…. Hirschman proposes… unbalanced growth. Instead of trying to solve all problems all at once, policy-makers should push forward in a limited number of sectors, and use the reactions and disequilibria created by those interventions to inform their next move…. Hirschman formalizes… insight with his famous notion of backward and forward linkages…. Instead of a Big Push… Hirschman calls for the Targeted Strike–choose the sectors with the most potential to create demand for other inputs, and support those. Ahead of his time for economics, Hirschman also argues that the “nonmarket” responses induced by a policy change may be just as important as market ones…. The Credibility Revolution has yielded, perhaps for the first time, robust evidence for individual program effects. The time is ripe, not to copy Hirschman’s ideas wholesale, but to borrow his clear-eyed approach and think carefully about how projects can be brought together, pressure point by pressure point, into programs for sustained development… <https://www.global-developments.org/p/the-real-development-was-the-friends>

  3. Chris Anstey: US Goes From Gloom to Bloom in Six Months: ‘The latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists shows US growth is projected at 2.2% this year — more than twice as fast as anticipated in September. The odds of a recession in the next 12 months dropped to 35%, the lowest since July 2022 and down from 55% in September. Perhaps even more striking, payroll gains are now seen averaging 150,000 a month this year. That’s more than quadruple the average estimate six months ago. Economists also anticipate a 2.4% increase for private investment this year, up from the 1% growth seen in September. Despite those revamped forecasts, and surprisingly strong inflation data from January and February, economists stuck to their outlook for tamer price rises… <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-26/world-economy-latest-gloom-to-boom>

  4. Tim Duy: Fed Watch: ‘Last week’s inflation data created a string of three reports that combined to throw cold water on the “bumpy landing” story and put the “hard last mile” story back in play. Market participants quickly pushed out rate cuts again, and we expect Fed speakers will reinforce that move this week. The debate is now one or two rate cuts this year, but we can see it quickly moving to none or one on the back of another month of elevated inflation…. The Fed needs the April, May, and June inflation prints to all fall into line to set up July rate cut…

  5. Economic History: Alan Taylor (2014): The Argentina Paradox: Microexplanations & Macropuzzles: ‘Argentina’s policy decisions were… not that unusual… [in], the shift towards impost substitution industrialization…. However, while Argentina’s stance was not that peculiar by the standard of developing countries, where inward looking development strategies were the norm, it was unusual by the standard of the rich countries, the club to which ostensibly Argentina wished to belong, or rather remain…. Argentina’s structural shift was… rapidly accelerated by an autarkic economic environment… in the 1920s and 1930s… [and] reinforced by autarkic domestic policies… in the 1940s and 1950s, and persisted over time to the present…. Argentina had more to lose…. For other countries with smaller trade shares and smaller financial inflows, the end of the first age of globalization entailed a fairly bothersome adjustment; for Argentina it entailed a radical and painful reorientation…. It has been argued that the “shock” of Atlantic trade expansion empowered mercantile/capitalist interests in the Anglo-Saxon Northwest corner of Europe, allowing this region to embrace economic and political reforms that enhanced openness and competition…. In Argentina, we may have seen something of the same path dependence driven by trade shocks, only in reverse: the shock of global trade contraction discrediting and weakening the old outward-looking order, and allowing new interests to arise with more autarkic goals…. Argentina’s extreme comparative advantage would also play into this dynamic… [as] the redistributive effects of autarky would be great…. These observations fit with a broader theme in economic history which argues that economic and political competition are key complements via the forces unleashed in “open access” orders…. Globalization and democracy go hand in hand, and, with empirical tests based on plausible instruments, this proposition holds up reasonably well… <https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19924/w19924.pdf>

  6. Yaw: What was Pre-Industrial Japan like?: ‘From the mid-1400s to the mid-1800s, Japan transformed from pandemonium to isolation to a semi-vassal of the West. Instead of becoming a colony, Japan, just like Ethiopia, decided to be imperialist to avoid colonialism. However, Ethiopia remained a feudalistic monarchy that mainly sold coffee until it had a communist revolution (Similar to Russia but 50 years behind), while Japan reformed feudalism and kickstarted its industrialization process. In the future, we’ll discuss the actual industrialization phase of Japan during the Meiji era. Among the non-European countries that avoided colonialism were Nepal, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, China, Iran, Bhutan, Japan, and Thailand. Out of all of these countries, Japan industrialized first… <https://yawboadu.substack.com/p/how-did-japan-become-the-first-non>

  7. Central Country: Sofia Horta e Costa: A negative China outlook:’

    Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on China’s debt to negative from stable, matching a similar action by Moody’s Investors Service in December. The thinking is that the government will pile on debt in order to pull the economy out of a real estate-driven slowdown, Fitch said in its report. China’s government rapidly pushed back against the outlook cut, saying the rating company’s methods fail to reflect the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing growth. Officials in Beijing have become more sensitive about negative commentary on the economy as they seek to bolster confidence and stem capital outflows… <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-10/stock-markets-today-cpi-inflation-oil-gold-s-p-500-fed-rate-cuts?cmpid=BBD041024_MKT>

  8. Nationalism: Samuel Clowes Huneke: Reading Imagined Communities Amid a Resurgence of Nationalism: ‘What Benedict Anderson’s classic account of nationalism’s origins misses about today’s world…. Gutenberg…. By 1500, some 20 million books had been printed. A century later, that figure was 200 million. These texts spread and standardized vernacular languages and challenged the sacred centrality of Latin…. They also made intellectual communion possible between people who had never met and would never meet. In the profits of print-capitalism lay appleaathe seeds of the imagined community…. What… [Anderson] cannot explain, and… remains seemingly mystified by, is “the attachment that people feel for the inventions of their imaginations.” Why, that is, “people are ready to die for these inventions.” No matter how many fine poems of the love of the fatherland or motherland (or whatever) he cites, Anderson’s Marxist framework cannot explain the devotion that nations have and continue to inspire…. <https://newrepublic.com/article/179786/reading-imagined-communities-amid-resurgence-nationalism>

  9. Tech! Tech! Tech!: Tim Burke: The Mythical People-Life: ‘Most of us have had those moments where everything did seem faster, better, cleaner because of a new device or tool. And because we are doing many things in objectively better ways…. But even those things which are better don’t remain that way…. We had… an era where if you had a modicum of skill with inputting keywords, you could get much better results, much more quickly, than painstakingly leafing through the card catalog. Then it all enshittified… as the related subject links for an article that is about an incredibly specific subject… [became] a few words… that belong, and the rest are laughably useless…. So now I’m back to teaching about research as an arcane and unintuitive process, or more often, I’m just doing the first steps for the students so they can get going on the work that is a productive learning process for them… <https://timothyburke.substack.com/p/the-mythical-people-life>

  10. Public Reason: Om Malik: Why I redesigned my home page: ‘When working for the magazines, I learned to think of what I wrote in terms of where it would sit in the publication: the front of the book, the feature well, and the back of the book…. Writing the front of the book pieces took longer because of the limitation of space and perceived topicality…. And then there was the “back of the book” where you wrote about things that were marginally tangential to the magazine’s core focus…. So I have rearranged my internet homestead into… blog posts… feature well (essays, long analysis & interviews), and… back of the book (my podcast, obsessions, travels, recommendations & photography)… <https://om.co/2024/03/16/why-i-redesigned-my-home-page/>

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Are Editors Useful? Noah Smith Says: NO!!

Is it now time to disintermediate the editorial process? &, if so, for how long has this been true?…

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In my experience:

  • About one editor in twenty is a true genius.

  • About one editor in ten is useful.

  • About thirteen editors in twenty cause delays and extra work, while having no net effect on the quality of what is ultimately published—their good suggestions are counterbalanced by the bad requirements they impose.

  • About three editors in twenty are harmful—about as harmful as the good editors are useful.

  • And about one editor in twenty wants to make the piece theirs, or their bosses’, and it would have been better and easier for everyone if they had just written the peace from the beginning. (Save, perhaps, for the money they pay you to have your name in the “author” slot rather than theirs.

It appears that Noah Smith agrees with me—and not as a lurker in email either:

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READING: Patricia Crone on the Agrarian Landlord-Dominated Gunpowder-Empire as the Normal Climax Societal Order of the East African Plains Ape...

…barring exceptional & extraordinary historical accidents, of course. From Patricia Crone: Pre-Industrial Societies. & why is this still the best short thing I have to hand on the cultural-political-societal divergence of the Dover Circle societies, even though it was written more than a generation ago? Has my mind become ossified, and there is something much newer and better that I simply do not recognize? Or what?…

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I believe that the reasons I still find the book worth assigning—still find it worth re-reading and re-re-reading for myself—is a combination of its:

  • Accessibility—it is super-readable…

  • Analytical Depth—Crone is not afraid to generalize across continents and millennia of history by drawing on the ideas of social scientists; she thus packs a huge amount of analysis into a very brief number of pages while somehow retaining readability…

  • Insight into Social Dynamics—closely connected, her ability to use social-science concepts to try to understand how pre-industrial societies managed to hang together makes it a superb resource for not just the what happened but for why it was happening…

  • Interdisciplinarity—again closely connected, analyses of a topic this broad that restrict themselves to one particular social science cannot be analytically deep…

  • Unifying—by looking at all pre-industrial societies as having to solve similar problems of production, organization, distribution, coördination and domination via force, reciprocity, redistribution, ideology, and fraud, she powerfully and economically sets out the unifying themes by which all pre-industrial societies are, although very different, also very similar…

  • Comprehensiveness: —closely related, Crone provides a sweeping exploration of common and analogous features across a wide range of pre-industrial societies from Ancient Egypt through the Mongol Empire to pre-Columbian America​…

So let me give her the mic:

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Patricia Crone: Pre-Industrial Societies: ‘Two sets of societies are so deviant that they are better treated as exceptions to, rather than as variations upon, the [standard] picture…. The first is… pre-Columbian America…. Europe, too… at least from the sixteenth century onwards… European deviation… is… a phenomenon which the European student may not perceive as odd at all. Yet odd it clearly is.

Medieval Europe fits the common pattern… far-flung ruling elite, partly military and partly religious… cosmopolitan high culture… a myriad of peasant communities characterized by the familiar absence of economic, political and cultural integration. Medieval Europe was backward… but… not visibly different in kind…. Only in retrospect… [can] Mediæval Europe… be seen to have… unusual potential…. Post-Reformation Europe fits the pattern too… [but] by now the backwardness had disappeared.

To a historian specializing in the non-European world there is something puzzling about the excitement with which European historians hail the arrival of cities, trade, regular taxation, standing armies, legal codes, bureaucracies, absolutist kings and other commonplace appurtenances of civilized societies as if they were unique and self-evident stepping stones to modernity: to the non-European historian they simply indicate that Europe had finally joined the club.

But the excitement is justified…. Medieval Europe… [did] not join… the club…. Why?… [For] pre-industrial society in general… what was the evolutionary trend? How and why did Europe diverge from it? Indeed, to what extent did it diverge as opposed to merely take the lead?… Provisional answers could be said to be available….

Land: Europe… became a cultural unit thanks to the Germanic invasions of… Rom[e]…. [While] no part of Europe possessed the high fertility of… valleys… of the Nile, Euphrates, Tigris, Indus, Ganges, Yangtze or Mekong… Europe… was fed by rain… meaning that agriculture was far less labour intensive…. The invention of the heavy plough… arguably made the soil of inland Europe the most fertile in the world in relation to labour…. No other part of the world was so uniformly given over to fixed-field agriculture… uniformly amenable to government control and, once the invasions were over, so lacking in… barbarians. Its complexity of territory nonetheless made it difficult for a single ruler to dominate…. Natural resources… were extremely varied… great potential for internal commerce…. An ample coastline and a profusion of navigable rivers endowed it with better and cheaper means of communications… a fact of major consequence for traders, rulers, and disseminators of ideas alike….

People…. The northern [Germanic] barbarians were organized by kinship, but they did not remain so for long…. Constant interaction dictated that even areas which might well have remained tribal under other circumstances adopted non-tribal forms of organization…. Why… feudalism rather than tribalism[?]… This is a question to which there is no proper answer yet. It has been plausibly argued that the Christian church did its best to undermine kin groups of any size or depth….

The European marriage pattern… two consequences…. Numbers rarely multiplied on such a scale that mass extinction was necessary to restore the balance between population and environment…. [Plus] European marriage pattern made for, or indeed was a manifestation of, individualism…. Service came to be part of the life-cycle, and the prominence of hired servants in the household is the domestic counterpart to the prominence of feudal retainers in the political sphere: in both cases, recruitment was by contract rather than by kinship….

Feudalism: Barbarian Europe was the outcome of… chaos… [and] continued… in a… chaos…. [With] the state… incapable of protecting property or life, people reacted by placing themselves in servile positions vis-a-vis stronger men… often granted usage of land which they themselves had handed over by way of payment for protection…. The ruler would reward his vassals… with grants of land because there was no money…. Horsemanship meant that the army had to be based on a professional military class rather than conscripted peasants. So far… nothing unique…. The uniqueness… lies in… the state los[ing] control of the process…. By the tenth century, European feudalism had wholly ceased to be ‘prebendal’: fiefs were no longer acquired or lost on appointment to or dismissal from a public office or function, the very concept of a public domain having disappeared….

The result was correspondingly unusual…. Feudal Europe was not stateless, nor had power been dispersed horizontally, into tribal groups, as it normally is under stateless conditions. A state of a sort existed, but it had little autonomous existence…. Society was in an extremely strong position vis-a-vis the state…. ‘Liberties’ were rights negotiated with authorities, not the freedom which prevails where no such authorities exist; and the sense of reciprocity rested on contractual agreement, not on kinship ties…. State and society formed a continuum, not an oppressive agency versus subjects who tried to escape it…. Capstone government failed to become a European pattern…. Every king or prince had to nurse his domains, seeing to their productivity, ensuring that they were properly administered, and adding to them by marriage and judicious use of force as best he could. Obviously, this made for a reconstitution of public power along lines very different from those which prevail where immense areas are united by conquest and loosely held together by a single tax-collecting apparatus….

At the same time the quest for revenues and order alike led to the expansion of royal justice… judicial machineries coterminous with and controlled by states in place of the normal pre-industrial combination of local courts run by villages, guilds, castes or the like on the one hand and supra-national courts spawned by the religious institution on the other…. Law as the command of the sovereign and thus something which could be made, as opposed to law as a regularity inherent in the cosmos, nature or divinity and thus something which could only be found….

The weakness of feudal kings which led to the development in Europe of representative institutions. Here as elsewhere, kings were supposed to seek counsel while leading men were supposed to offer it… but the feudal dispersal of power endowed it with a novel force…. The king was merely the top of the social pyramid, [so] he had to govern in collaboration with that pyramid: he had no state apparatus distinct from it…. Though most parliaments were to wither away in the age of absolutism, many survived… and none was forgotten….

Cities and trade… market forces, non-agrarian income and monetization. Cities were thus profoundly disruptive of the feudal order. This was not however obvious to rural lords without prior experience of urban society…. The result was unusual….

First, neither kings nor nobles plundered merchants as a matter of course…. Much of the trade was in cheap and bulky commodities… not worth seizing, though… worth taxing…. [With] Europe[’s]… divi[sion] into a plurality of states, ill-treated merchants could transfer their services to rival rulers… [as] in the Islamic world…. [But] Muslim rulers could afford to alienate merchants for short-term windfalls because stable revenues were provided by peasants, whereas European kings had to nurse theirs because they had no right to impose taxes without their subjects’ consent. [And] when absolutism finally made its appearance in Europe, mercantile power was far too well organized to allow itself to be fleeced….

Secondly, kings and nobles alike allowed their cities to administer themselves… [they] had bigger fish to fry in the countryside…. Like the principle of representation, urban autonomy was a feudal creation, not a legacy from classical antiquity; and it endowed the bourgeoisie with a power impossible to achieve where the landed elite used the agricultural surplus to keep both town and countryside under its own control….

Far from being stultified by imperial government, Europe was to be propelled forward by constant competition between its component parts…. [With] Europe… divided among… barbarian kings… and a Roman church…. The Roman church and barbarian kings were thus competitors; rivalry between them stood in the way of unification…. By the time European monarchs had the ability to finance armies of conquest and occupation, Europe was too highly and too evenly developed under governments too well-entrenched for empire-building to be possible…. The illiterate country bumpkins who dominated Europe for a thousand years or so after the fall of Rome had to be entertained and otherwise catered for in their own vernaculars: they knew no better…. By the sixteenth century we have the outline of states with fixed territorial identities and (by pre-industrial standards) considerable political, religious and cultural unity….

Scientific Thought…. Christianity and classical culture were two completely different world views which had… fallen into the hands of alien barbarians…. Classical thought was conceptual and strictly deductive… empirical testing was disdained on the ground that theory was above the haphazard behaviour which we can actually observe…. Christianity… was monotheist and… inductive…. Human reason can only observe. It was the interaction between these two views which issued in the conviction that the regularities postulated by deductive thought must be systematically tested by empirical observation….

Capitalism: All the factors considered so far come together in the explanation of the rise of capitalism…. An economy is… capitalist when[:]… Everything can be bought and sold, including land and human labour. Everything is a commodity as opposed to a means of subsistence. Labour being a commodity, it is distinct from the person who supplies it; it is neutral labour, not political or personal support…. People are hired, as opposed to born into the productive enterprise, and they are free rather than indentured, enserfed or enslaved…. Workers supply labour, not political followings; entrepreneurs supply wages, not protection or homesteads; and the products are destined fot the market, not for the households of the producers or their exploiters: the only tie between them is the cash nexus….

Manv pre-industrial societies had a capitalist sector… rest[ing] on long-distance trade in products obtained through hunting and gathering or agriculture…. Commonly the capitalist sector flourished within an agrarian economy without greatly affecting either the nature or the primacy of the latter, let alone the socio-political relations it engendered…. The question is how Europe came to go beyond it…. The answer… takes us back…. Medieval and early modern rulers set the scene for the bourgeoisie, first by allowing it to manage its own cities… and next by clearing their kingdoms of unruly nobles, robber barons and self-help groups…. This alliance between state and bourgeoisie is distinctly unusual. The growth of urban wealth and skills also assisted the expansion of the state at the cost of ecclesiastical jurisdictions, while at the same time contributing to the emancipation of thought from church control….

It goes without saying that there are endless controversies over the precise manner in which these and other developments interacted, as well as over the question why England was the first…. But whichever way the story is told, its protagonists are the peculiar political evolution arising from the feudal collapse, the plural roots of European culture, and the wealth with which the ecology and population control endowed it.

‘European dynamism’’…. Having collapsed politically, Europe devised a primitive organization to suit it only to find that its ecology endowed it with a potential far too great for the solution adopted, so that what ought to have been the end of the formative period turned out only to be the beginning…. Europe was inventive in different areas from other civilizations, having a peculiar penchant for technology which still has not been explained…. Whatever the ultimate explanation for this penchant may be, the extreme primitivity of barbarian Europe certainly plays a role in it. Outside Europe, the state created sophisticated elites utterly different from the masses in all and every respect; but the unwashed, vermin-infested, badly clothed. badly housed, illiterate and half-studied barons and clerics who held sway in medieval Europe were barely distinguishable from the serfs they ruled….

It was the failure of the European elite thoroughly to distance itself from the masses which made technology respectable, not just for military armoury and amusing gadgets, but also for labour-saving and other devices of the most prosaic kind. Differently put, a state without money generated an aristocracy without manners and bearers of high culture without a proper disdain for flywheels and cranks, let alone for the uneducated men who put such things together….

General inventiveness [thus] arose from the protracted nature of its formative period. But by the sixteenth century one might have expected this period to come to an end…. But the implications were so drastic and the rate of change so immense that in another way Europe could be said never to have come out of its formative period at all…. Competition between… states was the motor of European history thereafter…. Military competition is absent where a single empire reigns supreme…. Even where a plurality of states exists, however, competition is not necessarily a source of changes other than dynastic ups and downs. In the medieval Islamic and Indian worlds, for example, states were generally too loosely placed on top of society to generate much innovation below….

First or freak?… Was modernity (in the sense of industrial economy with accompan ing social, political and cognitive arrangements) in the making elsewhere? Should Europe be seen… ‘dynamic’ and Asia as… ‘stagnating’… or should we rather see Europe and Asia, or indeed all complex societies, as travelling in different directions?… Given that history is the story of the human accumulation of experience, it does indeed appear to have a unitary direction. As the centuries roll on, stateless societies acquire states under the influence of their neighbours, their neighbours develop better governmental techniques, populations grow, means of communications improve and urbanization increases, making for more trade and manufacture, more individualism, new ideas and greater sophistication: everywhere the earth seems to be ‘filling up’. In this very general sense there undoubtedly was an identical trend all over the world.

It is however an altogether different matter to argue that the world outside Europe was moving in the same specific direction as Europe itself…. But the historical record suggests that all non-European paths were leading towards modified versions of the same societies, not towards that evolved in Europe…. Europe and the different civilizations of Asia were all travelling along paths of their own. China was not moving in the European direction, but nor was it moving in that of the Middle East or vice versa; India was not moving closer to the path taken by Japan, and so on: all were developing along the lines laid down in their respective formative periods….

Asian societies may well appear to resemble each other more than they do Europe (particularly of course when the observer is an ignorant European to whom all distant civilizations look the same); but this is merely to say that the modern predominance of the West engenders an illusion trick…. Where in the world is there anything like European cities? But where is there anything like Chinese bureaucracy?… If the Islamic world had won out, all non-Islamic civilizations would have appeared as so many variations on the theme of failure to invent slave soldiers (due to blockages, no doubt).

There is only one respect in which all non-European civilizations genuinely resemble each other more than Europe, and that is in their successful discovery of durable solutions to the problems inherent in pre-industrial organization. Europe failed: had it succeeded, it would have remained a pre-industrial society. Human societies aim at stability; all hope to find the social and political organization best suited to the specific cultural and natural environment they inhabit…. Formative periods are about the invention of basic frameworks. This or that solution is tried out until a viable compromise is found, whereupon tinkering suffices for the accommodation of further change unless it is of a positively cataclysmic kind.

What happened in Europe is clearly that the formative period went wrong. The political organization was too primitive and the high culture was too composite to survive once people began to acquire money and to think (people could do plenty of both elsewhere without thereby causing their establishments to totter)…. Europe failed to devise a socio-political and cognitive order in which a united elite kept both the high culture and the society it sanctioned in place and in which drastic change was impossible because all the key members of society had too strong an interest in the order that prevailed.

Adherents of the blockage theory may object with reference to China… high agricultural output… a large internal market… a dense network of… rural markets and market towns… use of machinery and inanimate energy (notably water power), literacy… high, and [no] formal barriers to social or geographical mobility…. All this is apt to convey the impression that a blockage theory is needed to explain the failure of the Chinese economy to take off. But in fact China is a star example of a successful civilization: the problems inherent in pre-industrial organization had here been solved with such expertise that people could do more thinking and accumulate more wealth than ever before without thereby undermining the prevailing order. China reached the pinnacle of economic development possible under pre-industrial conditions and stopped: no forces pushing it in a different direction are in evidence; no movements towards take-off were blocked.

The durability of the Chinese solution arose from its manner of elite-building. The state recruited… through an examination system which… [gave] close to a monopoly on the distribution of prestige… [so] everyone who could afford it competed…. The mighty dragon might not be a match for the local snake… but every local snake wanted the dragon to give him a degree… [so sought] full mastery of the Confucian culture which tied the educated person to the state. China… tamed its landowner [but] not by developing a state apparatus which… deprived them of a political role, but on the contrary… transforming them into Confucian degree-holders… [and] local snakes with a vested interest in the state-sponsored world view to which they owed their prestige. There was no way in which this alliance could be upset by internal developments….

Politically, the representatives of trade and commerce were redundant (or, at times, even undesirable)… not in a position to turn the state into an instrument for their aims, be it directly or indirectly…. The unitary nature of the high culture meant that urbanization, commercialization and the spread of literacy were in no danger of shattering the traditional world view, as opposed to strengthening its hold…. Greater productivity and better government did make for population growth, so the market was huge; but it consisted, apart from the elite, of impoverished peasants whose purchasing power could not be raised. Despite its interest in production (occasionally even mass production) of everyday goods, Chinese capitalism was thus pre-modern in terms of its customers and its relationship with the state alike. The abundance of labour… deprived manufacturers of an interest in labour-saving devices, labour being cheap in comparison with raw material….

Where in all this, one wonders, is the dynamic potential supposed to have been blocked? China had succeeded where Europe had failed, and it was the inability of Europe similarly to contain its capitalist sector which eventually caused the Confucian [I think this is a typo: I think this should be “Mediæval-Feudal-Roman Catholic”] order to collapse.

The only case comparable to Europe is that of Japan… [with] a composite culture and a long formative period in which political power was fragmented…. Barbarian Japan was no more capable of reshaping itself along Chinese lines than was barbarian Europe of keeping the Roman empire going in all but name, and the upshot was a long period of constant change culminating, here as there, in the sixteenth century, when Japan was politically united in a proto-nation state and its Buddhist monasteries despoiled…. By then the formative period of Japan came to an end, precisely as it ought to have done and in some sense did in Europe too.

The crucial difference is that Japan was on its own, not part of a state system…. In isolation Japan experienced developments similar to those of Europe, that is taming of the feudal aristocracy, urbanization and agricultural growth. But… cities[‘]… position was insecure… [so] they did not spawn a comparable bourgeoisie. And the absence of military competition meant that Japan could remain what it was…. Japan enjoyed two centuries of undisturbed tranquility before the West forced it to join the competition… <https://archive.org/details/isbn_2901851683115>

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On Ryan Avent’s Meditations on Trumpism

Pulling this from a year and a half ago out on its own so that I will more easily be able to find it later…

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Ryan Avent: What Is Trumpism, Exactly? ‘‘I sat reflecting on the chapter in Brad DeLong’s new book which discusses the rise of fascism. Mussolini… off socialism, impressed by the power of ethno-nationalism, and keen to lead a mass movement… crept and felt his way toward a set of core principles, based in large part on what seemed to work best: another algorithm, learning from incoming data…. Brad flirts with the notion that actually there was never much of anything coherent there: just an algorithmically learning leader exploiting the intoxicating power of nationalism to elevate himself into a position of power.… But even if fascism often is that, it is also something else—and its capacity to attract millions of supporters is the proof…. It is a belief, first, in the fundamental importance of the ethno-nationalist community, appeals to which have a terrible unifying and inspirational power. It is implacably opposed to socialism and to liberalism…. It embraces a certain economic pragmatism and rejects deference to the market…. And yes, it is about the leader…. It is not on its face a particularly alluring set of principles, and its appeal has to be understood in the context of the shortcomings of other ideologies. In the middle of the 20th century, those shortcomings were all too obvious….

That Trump has succeeded in the way that he has tells us something profound about the American electorate. It tells us that our society has within it certain terrible capacities. If Trump goes away, do we imagine that those capacities will too?… It took extraordinary material hardship to create the conditions in which a fascist regime could take power in Germany. Even if we say that Trumpism isn’t fascism, but is more like the half-formed kernel around which an American fascism might coalesce if luck and the flow of history were against us, isn’t that on its own a remarkable thing? Doesn’t that suggest that whatever else our current system is and does, it has within it this extraordinary vulnerability, that some large portion of the population are ready to rip up everything to follow a Trump wherever he goes? Mostly sunny with a chance of afternoon fascism is one hell of a forecast….

Reading Brad’s book, I found myself imagining a future, decades from now, in which people try to understand the events that led to a second Trump term—still a good bet, according to the bookies—and everything which flowed from that. What would they say about us? What choices that we are making would seem unfathomable to them, or unconscionable? What will they think we should have understood, should have seen coming? I don’t know. I don’t know…

The Bellows
What is Trumpism, exactly?
A few years back, the mathematician and writer Cathy O’Neill cheekily noted that Trump the politician behaved an awful lot like a machine-learning algorithm. He doesn’t behave like he has any real beliefs, she observed; he more responds to incoming data as an algorithm might if it were a politician-bot tasked with soliciting strong reactions from a crow…
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From one perspective, fascism, neo-fascism, and fascism-adjacent are things that go back to the very beginning of democratic politics—back to the election of Andrew Jackson in the U.S. in 1832 and to the election of Louis Bonaparte in France in 1848. It is a short-circuiting of the politics of patron and client, of interests and affinities, and of network connections for something else: a politics of a parasocial connection to someone whom Max Weber called a “charismatic” leader. And as long as the parasocial bonds are maintained, the leader can change course at will and lead the people pretty much anywhere, no matter whether his policies are any good for their material interests or indeed for their former ideal interests.

That Max Weber thought it important enough to include this type of leadership as one of his three “types” tells you how deep he thought it ran in human affairs. And Karl Marx could not believe that the French Revolution of 1848—the one that was supposed to see the rapid advance of socialism, as the bourgeoisie was moved to the back and the proletariat took the driver’s seat—end in the dictatorship of the clown Louis Bonaparte, heading a government “not, as was traditional in France, of mistresses, but of gigolos”. Indeed, Marx’s rant is something to read:

Every observer of average intelligence… must have anticipated that an unheard-of fiasco was in store for the revolution…. The constitution, the national assembly, the dynastic parties, the blue and the red republicans, the heroes from Africa, the thunder from the tribune, the flash-lightnings from the daily press, the whole literature, the political names and the intellectual celebrities, the civil and the criminal law, the “liberte’, egalite’, fraternite’,” together with the [succession of power to take place on the] 2d of May 1852—all vanished like a phantasmagoria before the ban of one man, whom his enemies themselves do not pronounce an adept at witchcraft. Universal suffrage seems to have survived only for a moment, to the end that, before the eyes of the whole world, it should make its own testament with its own hands, and, in the name of the people, declare: “All that exists deserves to perish.”

It is not enough to say, as the Frenchmen do, that their nation was taken by surprise. A nation, no more than a woman, is excused for the unguarded hour when the first adventurer who comes along can do violence to her. The riddle is not solved by such shifts, it is only formulated in other words. There remains to be explained how a nation of thirty-six millions can be surprised by three swindlers, and taken to prison without resistance…

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Marx was, in some ways, very traditional and bourgeois indeed.

Marx in the end constructed a convoluted, implausible, and false explanation that Louis Bonaparte could become dictator of France because the landlord-bourgeoisie required a king from the Bourbon dynasty while the mercantile-industrial-bourgeoisie required a king from the Orleans dynasty, and an illegitimate dictator from the Bonapartist dynasty was preferable to each than the candidate of the other faction because he would follow not pro-agriculture or pro-industry policies but would rather compromise.

But that was not it at all.

Marx in the end constructed a theory that Louis Bonaparte could become dictator of France because the industrial proletariat was still too small in numbers, leaving France still dominated by the agricultural proletariat—the peasants—which were not a class able to exert political pressure on their own behalf but rather “a potato-bag… prevent[ed] from generating among them any unity of interest, national connections, and political organization… unable to assert their class interests…represented… [by] their master, as an authority over them, as an unlimited governmental power, that protects them from above, bestows rain and sunshine upon them… [and] subjugates the commonweal to its own autocratic will.”

But in history since 1789, it has been only the peasantry that has ever appeared as an effective class making a political and social revolution.

Marx thought that Louis Bonaparte’s Second French Empire was bound to collapse very quickly

Harassed by the contradictory demands of his situation, and compelled, like a sleight-of-hands performer, to keep, by means of constant surprises, the eyes of the public riveted upon himself as the substitute of Napoleon, compelled, consequently, everyday to accomplish a sort of “coup” on a small scale, Bonaparte throws the whole bourgeois social system into disorder; he broaches everything that seemed unbroachable by the revolution of 1848; he makes one set people patient under the revolution and another anxious for it; he produces anarchy itself in the name of order by rubbing off from the whole machinery of Government the veneer of sanctity, by profaning it, by rendering it at once nauseating and laughable…

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But Louis Bonaparte hung on, and gave France internal peace and economic development for two decades, until the charismatic spell was broken by defeat in the Franco-Prussian War.

There is a good deal to be said for Ezra Klein’s worry that politics in the age of social media is not the politics of compromise and consensus that sometimes held when we were in the Gutenberg Galaxy—that we have a good thing going, politically, in our common home, and we should decide whether to finish the addition (tack left) or restore the roof by fixing the leaks (tack right). The fear is that politics in the age of social media is one of “do you have the right enemies”, and, as such, is uniquely vulnerable to this kind of charismatic takeover by a government that has skills that are, at best, orthogonal to competent government and focused on making people unhappy by raising internal and external culture war to a rolling boil.

But I reject Ryan’s claim that this shows that our society has an “extraordinary vulnerability”. It is, rather, I think, a standard failure mode of democratic-ish politics.

Indeed, let me give the mic to James Madison:

a pure democracy, by which I mean, a society consisting of a small number of citizens, who assemble and administer the government in person, can admit of no cure for the mischiefs of faction. A common passion or interest will, in almost every case, be felt by a majority of the whole; a communication and concert, results from the form of government itself; and there is nothing to check the inducements to sacrifice the weaker party, or an obnoxious individual. Hence it is, that such democracies have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention; have ever been found incompatible with personal security, or the rights of property; and have, in general, been as short in their lives, as they have been violent in their deaths. Theoretic politicians, who have patronized this species of government, have erroneously supposed, that, by reducing mankind to a perfect equality in their political rights, they would, at the same time, be perfectly equalized and assimilated in their possessions, their opinions, and their passions…

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Madison’s view is here inherited from Thucydides, Plato, Xenophon, Aristotle, and also Plutarch and company. The principal historical focuses underlying it are Pericles-Cleon-Alcibiades trying to guide the city of Athens through the Peloponnesian War, and the ease with which Philip of Macedon was able to buy Aeschines and company to spread pro-Macedonian fake news in the runup to the Macedonian Hegemony. While aristocracies and oligarchies have a firm view of what their and the public interest are, and while aristocrats have enough ballast in their souls to maintain independent judgment, a democracy will very easily fall under the charismatic spell—whether that of a wise Pericles, an erratic Alcibiades, or a destructive Cleon.

But it is surely true that all of this gets taken to a higher power and scale with the coming of nationalism, and then again, perhaps, of social media.

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2024-04-11 Th: Scratchpad: No, for the Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in June Would Not Be a Mistake...

A scratchpad…

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Economics: I agree that a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in June would as a mistake be one “comparable to… [those] the Federal Reserve was making in the summer of 2021…”, but that is because I believe that there was no mistake then—that the Federal Reserve was playing it completely right in the summer of 2021.

That is because of the asymmetry in the loss function. You cannot effectively stimulate the economy if you land at the zero interest-rate lower bound. By contrast, you can always effectively restrict the economy by raising interest rates wherever you are.

Thus waiting to raise rates until you were almost sure that you would not soon be back at the zero lower bound, and then moving fast and far, was in fact optimal monetary policy in the summer of 2021. And that is what the Fed did.

There was no error.

There would be no error in cutting by 25 basis points in June.

But even if it would be an error to cut by 25 basis-points in June, that would be a small beer policy move compared to Fed forbearance in the early Biden years. Monetary conditions as indexed by the Treasury Ten-Year TIPS were kept very loose by the Fed until the start of 2022. Between then and August it tightened by 350 basis points: lowering the real value of the future ten years out by about 35%. That is a huge shift in the intertemporal price system.

A 25 basis-point cut in June with an 0.4 gearing to the Treasury Ten-Year TIPS would raise the real value of the future ten years out by about 1%.

How can these possibly be seen as moves comparable in magnitude?

Lawrence Summers: ‘On current facts, a rate cut in June would be a dangerous and egregious error comparable to the errors the Federal Reserve was making in the summer of 2021. We do not need rate cuts right now… <bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-10/…>

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Trying to Puzzle Through the Current Macro Situation

For the first time since 2009-2010, when I (mistakenly) believed that Bernanke at the Fed & Obama & the center of gravity of his advisors understood the seriousness of the situation & were about to take appropriate action to rapidly restore full employment, my short-term macro forecasts are going sufficiently awry to make me suspect the reliability of my vision of the Cosmic All. Hence I am trying to think about this.
My current guesses? A 40% chance that things are simply delayed by the long and variable lags, a 30% chance that I am in for a big surprise as it turns out that that the era of “secular stagnation” & permanently low equilibrium rates that place chronic deflationary pressure on the economy, and a 30% chance the “unknown unknowns” rule everything around us…

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On the job-growth side, the market expected the BLS March Employment Report released on Friday April 5 to show estimated seasonally-adjusted payroll-survey nonfarm employment growth around 210,000 in March (compared to 275,000 in February). On the inflation side, the market expected core CPI inflation in the report report released on Wednesday April 10 to be not inconsistent with continued downward pressure on officially-recorded inflation.

Neither of those things happened.

The CPI release told us that core CPI inflation continued at its previous level, with the one-month jump at an annualized rate of 4.4%. It is now very hard to avoid the conclusion that inflation kissed the Federal Reserve’s 2% core PCE-index concept in the second half of 2023, and now has taken a small uptick. The past six months’ core-PCE concept average annual inflation rate is now 2.9%—not far above the 2.0% target, but far enough above it to be noticed.

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The Employment Report of April 5 told us that job growth around 210,000 in March was not what the market got. The market got a significantly stronger economy. What the market got was an estimated 303,000 increase in payroll-survey nonfarm employment, with job gains broad-based, plus a net-22,000 revision for January and February. That gave us in March an estimate of seasonally-adjusted payroll-survey employment 829,000 above the estimate as it stood in December. What the market got was household-survey unemployment rate at 3.8% staying in the narrow range of ±0.1%-point it has been in for 2/3 of a year. What the market got was a 26th straight month with the estimated unemployment rate below 4%: something not seen before in the working lives of anybody who is today less than eighty years old:

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BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-09 Tu

Fidel Castro needs to micromanage bread-baking; Arkansas sent into a state of emergency by solar eclipse; TSLA’s history as a profit-making institution; WASP ethnic food; & Large-Scale Transcontinental Societal Coöperation in the Classical-Age East-African Plains Ape, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-06 Sa…

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Really-Existing Socialism: Really-existing socialist leadership cults had a very different vibe than fascist ones did or that neofascists do. The fascist and neofascist vibe was one of an angry person who shared your enemies and fought them. The really-existing socialist vibe… it was much more that the maximum leader knew everything, outworked everyone, and could outthink anyone—Big Brother is, after all, watching you:

Jacobo Timerman (1990): Reflections: A Summer in the Revolution—1987: ‘I read one of Gabriel García Márquez’s essays on the Comandante…. García Márquez praises Fidel Castro for needing only six hours of sleep… If the cumulative tasks in Fidel Castro’s workday as it is described by García Márquez are counted up, the Castro who emerges is a prodigy—someone who triumphs by supernatural intelligence…. “He has breakfast with no less than two hundred pages of news… has to read fifty-odd documents [daily]…. No one can explain how he has the time or what method he employs to read so much and so fast…. There is a vast bureaucratic incompetence affecting almost every realm of daily life, especially domestic happiness, which has forced Fidel Castro himself, almost thirty years after victory, to involve himself personally in such extraordinary matters as how bread is made and the distribution of beer… <newyorker.com/magazine/1990/08/13/a-sum…>

But there is the enormous crack in the façade: Fidel Castro has to do all of this because he has no team behind him. Instead of a team, there is only “a vast bureaucratic incompetence” that is the system that Castro had designed over his then thirty years of dictatorial rule—a system that requires him to micromanage where the beer trucks go and how the bakers spend their time.

Would it not have been better for Fidel Castro to have spent less time reading documents and micromanaging consumer goods production and distribution and more time thinking about management cybernetics? The answer is “no”: for Castro, the key was not to assist the people of Cuba in becoming prosperous but rather to make himself indispensable and the possibility of moving him out inconceivable.

I am thinking about this because I am about to start reviewing Dan Davies’s soon-forthcoming “The Unaccountability Machine” for the “Times Lit. Supp.” And so I am looking for an angle to help people approach what the book is—which, at the moment, I believe is one of how to do appropriate datacenter networking design for the anthology intelligence that is humanity today.

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Stupidity: Republicans is really weird. I could understand shifting cops to places where traffic jams are likely today, but…:

Kyler Swaim: Gov. Sanders declares state of emergency ahead of eclipse: ‘Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders declared a state of emergency on Friday ahead of the solar eclipse, according to a news release. Sanders said in the release that she released funds from the Response and Recovery Fund to help commercial carriers transport essentials to customers in the state during the eclipse… groceries, pharmacy items, medical equipment, goods, commodities, fuel, poultry, livestock and feed…. The decision was made out of caution due to the expected increase of visitors to Arkansas “potentially causing hardships.” “We want to make sure Arkansans and all visitors have an enjoyable experience and come back again and again,” Sanders said in a statement. The order will allocate $100,000 from the fund to address program and administrative costs and will be managed by the director of the Arkansas Division of Emergency Management… <kark.com/news/state-news/gov-sanders-de…>

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ONE IMAGE: TSLA as a Profit-Making—Not a Societal Well-Being Advancing, Where It Is Tops—Organization so Far…:

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& Another Image: WASP Ethnic Food Edition:

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Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Economics: Felix Martin: The Unaccountability Machine—why do big systems make bad decisions?: ‘Dan Davies makes a compelling case for the use of Stafford Beer’s management cybernetics in the age of AI…. Accountability sinks… reasonable responses to …ever-increasing complexity…. Standardisation… explicit policies… procedures offer the only feasible route…. Relying on… personal discretion of middle managers would simply result in a different kind of mess. The question… how to ensure… [systems] are open to feedback, able to adapt and improve.… Two intellectual framework…. Economics… hopelessly deficient.… Worse, the… postulate of the optimality of [the] market… feeds the accountability crisis…. “Management cybernetics”… [is] a matter not of eliminating market failures, but of ensuring that the flow of information between deciders and decided-upon is kept in balance… <https://www.ft.com/content/0bb1b48f-b85a-4596-a0da-ac819bc69647>

  2. Barry Eichengreen: Why Is Europe Losing the Productivity Race?—PROJECT SYNDICATE: ‘Labor productivity growth in the US… more than double… eurozone for the past 20 years…. Strong fiscal stimulus applied in the US…. Tight labor markets in the US may mean that firms… are impelled to substitute capital for labor…. Mario Draghi… will present the EU with… proposals… completing Europe’s capital-markets union… removing barriers to competition… greater energy efficiency and self-sufficiency…. Europe should move now to implement these old ideas. And it desperately needs to come up with new ones… <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-european-productivity-growth-lags-us-by-barry-eichengreen-2024-04>

  3. Marc Perrier: Chipper: ‘The US will award TSMC $6.6 billion in grants and as much as $5 billion in loans to ramp up domestic production. The chipmaker will construct a third factory in Phoenix relying on 2-nm process technology, key for AI and the military… <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-08/chipper-the-bloomberg-open-americas-edition?cmpid=BBD040824_OUS>

  4. Daniel Moss: AI Threatens to Dislodge Manila in the Economic Revolution: ‘Think of the Philippines workforce… United Airlines Holdings Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Cigna…. These ought to be the best of times for back offices. The business has grown to around 8% of gross domestic product from almost nothing in 2000…. When I first reported on call centers in the Philippines in 2020, the risks seemed largely theoretical, something for the long horizon. Sure, people recognized AI’s usefulness—and downside. But they took comfort in the things that AI couldn’t yet do: empathy, talking to irate customers, figuring out workarounds to problems. And having conversational English, with an American tinge. That era is passing…. The Philippines has the advantages of a young tech-savvy workforce and a linguistic heritage that should position it well—if it can keep up. Meanwhile, train an eye on where BPO money is going, and don’t let anyone assert, without fear of contradiction, popular ideas about the passing of globalization. It’s alive and well in Manila… <https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-04/philippines-disruptors-are-coming-for-an-outsourcing-superpower>

  5. Gernot Wagner & Shang-Jin Wei: The Right Response to China’s Electric-Vehicle Subsidies—Project Syndicate: ‘The availability of cheap EVs is good news for the planet… bad news for shareholders and employees of Western car companies…. The United States and the European Union are considering imposing import tariffs… the wrong approach…. Subsidize domestic manufacturing… as a politically feasible, second-best alternative to carbon pricing, including as a stepping stone…. subsidy race, together with stronger efforts at pricing carbon dioxide emissions, is vastly superior to a tariff war. The world will be both richer and cleaner for it… <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/western-tariffs-wrong-response-to-chinese-ev-subsidies-by-gernot-wagner-and-shang-jin-wei-2024-04>

  6. Central Country: Minxin Pei: China’s Economy Needs a Strategy, Not a Buzzword: ‘Xi Jinping is counting on “new productive forces” to revive growth. He is likely to be disappointed…. In practical terms, this means… electric vehicles… batteries… humanoid robots, photonic computing, nuclear fusion and manned spaceflight. Bureaucrats are expected to fall in line…. China’s manufacturing sector… accounted for nearly 32% of GDP in 2023…. The crisis-ridden real estate sector generates an estimated 20%-30%…. If Xi counts on exporting even more Chinese goods, from cars to semiconductors, he will almost certainly face a backlash…. Moreover, while technology breakthroughs could make Chinese factories more efficient, they won’t necessarily increase the size of the manufacturing sector. For example, the share of manufacturing value added in the German economy, probably the best example of “new quality productive forces,” held steady at around 20% of GDP over the past three decades, before its recent decline.<https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-04/china-s-new-productive-forces-won-t-revive-the-economy>

  7. Chris Anstey: Xi Jinping’s ‘New Productive Forces’ Don’t Add Up: ‘In the run-up to the National People’s Congress (NPC), the party’s Politburo declared, “it is imperative to boost the endeavors to modernize the industrial system, and accelerate the development of new productive forces”… the electric-vehicle supply chain, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, advanced infrastructure, cutting-edge semiconductors…. President Xi Jinping putting a stamp on it at the NPC will send a powerful signal to everyone…. [But] these new productive forces are unlikely to be enough to replace the old ones—especially in the case of the property sector. And Xi’s continuing resistance to any major initiatives to lift incomes and propel consumption means China’s growth rate in coming years will fall well short of the expected 2024 target of about 5%…. An alternative economic strategy would be to focus on domestic consumption, but that would require even bolder structural reforms… <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-02/bloomberg-new-economy-xi-jinping-s-new-productive-forces-don-t-add-up?cmpid=BBD030224_NEF>

  8. Di Guo & Chenggang Xu: Is Today’s China Yesterday’s Soviet Union?—PROJECT SYNDICATE: ‘The long experiment in opening up appears to be over, making economic failure all but certain…. The structure of “totalitarianism with Chinese characteristics”… combines highly centralized totalitarian control over politics, ideology, and personnel with decentralization in administrative and economic affairs…. China’s reforms succeeded… because China had managed to solve a fundamental incentive problem…. Regional economic performance would determine the promotion of local party-state bureaucrats, which led to competition between subnational bureaucrats…. Exclusive state ownership of land and the state’s banking monopoly have destabilized the Chinese financial and fiscal systems…. It now seems clear that totalitarian control over every corner of society will be strengthened. The number of moderate technocrats and their weight in party-state agencies will be reduced. Economic policy will be politically determined… <https://www.project-syndicate.org/magazine/china-today-becominig-soviet-union-auguring-economic-failure-by-di-guo-and-chenggang-xu-2022-12>

  9. Cinema: Auntie G.: ‘Here is my chance to jump in with my Casablanca Hot Take: Ilsa never wanted to go with Rick, she just thought she had to sell herself to him in order to save the REAL love of her life: her husband. Only Rick wouldn’t let her (because he’s a big damn hero) (and this is WHY he’s a big damn hero). Re-watch the Roulette scene, where the Bulgarian girl was prepared to do the same thing (only Rick wouldn’t let her), and tell that scene isn’t a deliberate foreshadowing of the entire movie plot… <https://www.threads.net/@auntie_g_aka_saffi/post/C5cUlMmrRK9>

  10. Jogosity: ‘The same thought struck me when I first Casablanca when I was in film school in the 90s. Soooo much of Rick Blaine in Han Solo. A friend asked me that if Rick was actually Han Solo, what would his spaceship be called. I’m forever grateful that my brain came up with the Maltese Falcon… <https://www.threads.net/@auntie_g_aka_saffi/post/C5cUlMmrRK9>

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Large-Scale Transcontinental Societal Coöperation in the Classical-Age East-African Plains Ape

Trying to arrest people’s attention by making them recognize how strange are the ways that we humans manage to get things done—when, that is, we actually manage to do things, as opposed to fail to do them.
Examples: Fidel Castro tries to get bread baked and beer trucked in Cuba, in the face of “vast bureaucratic incompetence affecting almost every realm of daily life, especially domestic happiness”, & the Council & Assembly of Athens seek to get 50 tons of metal created & then moved up to 2500 miles to the top of the Acropolis…

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I am gearing up to start reviewing Dan Davies’s soon-forthcoming The Unaccountability Machine: Why Big Systems Make Terrible Decisions—and How The World Lost its Mind <profilebooks.com/work/the-unaccountabil…> for the Times Lit. Supp.

And so I am looking for an angle to help people approach what the book is—which, at the moment, I believe is one of how to do appropriate datacenter networking design for the anthology intelligence that is humanity today. And how unlikely and absurd are the ways we organize ourselves when we do manage to GET THE JOB DONE.

Consider Fidel Castro in his office in Havana in 1987 pushing the paper. Consider Pheidias and his team atop the Acropolis in -450 casting a giant bronze statue…

The one is Fidel Castro’s micromanaging the baking of bread and the distribution of beer (see below). The other, in striking contrast, is the result of the decision by the Council and Assembly of Athens around the year -450 to have Pheidias and his team construct the 30-foot tall bronze statue of Athene Promakhis—Athena Fighting-in-Front—on the Acropolis.

They used unbelievable amounts of metal for the statue: 5 tons of tin (or maybe more), which would mean 45 tons of copper. Tin back then cost 4 drachmas per pound (and copper 2/3 of a drachma per pound), when a single drachma was a good daily wage for an unskilled worker—the equivalent on the labor standard of $120 today. So figure that on the human-labor standard, copper then cost $80 and tin then cost $500 a pound. (Copper costs $4 and tin costs $13 a pound today.)

To get the tin mined and up to the Acropolis required:

  • Laborers, teamsters, donkeys, and wagons to transport the tin from the Peiraiás up onto the Acropolis.

  • Ships, ropes, and sailors to carry the tin from Massilia to the Peiraiás (with, perhaps, a stop in Syrákousai).

  • Dockworkers in Massalia at the mouth of the Rhône to transship the tin from the riverboats coming down the Rhône.

  • Boats, ropes, sailors(, and guards!) for the journey down the Saône-Rhône to Massalia.

  • Laborers, wagons, donkeys, teamsters(, and guards!) for the portage from what is now Auxerre on the Yonne to Chalons-sur-Rhône.

  • Shipos, ropes, and sailors for the journey from Ictis in Cornwall across the English Channel and then up the Seine-Yonne to Auxerre.

  • Ships, ropes, and sailors to carry the tin from Ictis (St Michael’s Mount, perhaps?) in Cornwall to what is now Le Havre at the mouth of the Seine.

  • Dockworkers in Ictis in Cornwall to transship the tin from the riverboats coming down the Rhône.

  • Laborers, donkeys, teamsters, and carts to transport the tin from St. Austell region of Cornwall to Ictis.

  • Woodchoppers to bring the firewood, the ovens, and skilled smelters to transform ten tons of rock into five tons of tin.

  • Miners to dig up ten tons of rock with a high concentration of cassiterite.

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What did the Council and Assembly of Athens have to do in order to get all this to happen, to create more than 10,000 pounds of metal 1,700 miles away in St. Austell and then move it perhaps 2,500 miles given twists and turns across the sea, river, land, river, sea, and then land again to the Acropolis? Consider that the metals expenditure alone was—relative to the unskilled-worker wage today—of the same magnitude as $20 million would be for us.

We are talking 1000 adult person-years of labor here in metal-mining, metal-smelting, and metal-transport.

And this is for a city of 120,000 adults, with a state capacity significantly smaller in its resource-mobilization capabilities than what we take for granted today.

What did the Council and Assembly of Athens have to do?

All they had to do was to put the job of getting the metal to the top of the Acropolis out to bid.

(And they had to collect taxes, and they had to maintain the empire under which the trade of olive oil and wine for grain with what is now Ukraine that kept Athens fed and made Athens rich flourished.)

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Really-Existing Socialism: Really-existing socialist leadership cults had a very different vibe than fascist ones did or that neofascists do. The fascist and neofascist vibe was one of an angry person who shared your enemies and fought them. The really-existing socialist vibe… it was much more that the maximum leader knew everything, outworked everyone, and could outthink anyone—Big Brother is, after all, watching you:

Jacobo Timerman (1990): Reflections: A Summer in the Revolution—1987: ‘I read one of Gabriel García Márquez’s essays on the Comandante…. García Márquez praises Fidel Castro for needing only six hours of sleep… If the cumulative tasks in Fidel Castro’s workday as it is described by García Márquez are counted up, the Castro who emerges is a prodigy—someone who triumphs by supernatural intelligence…. “He has breakfast with no less than two hundred pages of news… has to read fifty-odd documents [daily]…. No one can explain how he has the time or what method he employs to read so much and so fast…. There is a vast bureaucratic incompetence affecting almost every realm of daily life, especially domestic happiness, which has forced Fidel Castro himself, almost thirty years after victory, to involve himself personally in such extraordinary matters as how bread is made and the distribution of beer… <newyorker.com/magazine/1990/08/13/a-sum…>

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But there is the enormous crack in the façade: Fidel Castro has to do all of this because he has no team behind him. Instead of a team, there is only “a vast bureaucratic incompetence” that is the system that Castro had designed over his then thirty years of dictatorial rule—a system that requires him to micromanage where the beer trucks go and how the bakers spend their time.

Would it not have been better for Fidel Castro to have spent less time reading documents and micromanaging consumer goods production and distribution and more time thinking about management cybernetics? The answer is “no”: for Castro, the key was not to assist the people of Cuba in becoming prosperous but rather to make himself indispensable and the possibility of moving him out inconceivable.

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Jacobo Timerman (1990): Reflections: A Summer in the Revolution—1987: ‘Gabriel García Márquez, of course, is uncensored [in Cuba]—except when he refers enthusiastically, as he often does, to [Gorbachev’s] perestroika. The Colombian writer’s famous dialogue with Mikhail Gorbachev during the Moscow Film Festival in 1987, which was transmitted by the Soviet news agency, wasn’t published in the Cuban press. 

García Márquez may be the man who can most influence Fidel Castro. With respect to international opinion, he’s the most important public-relations instrument the Comandante has. His personal intervention with Castro has occasionally helped to gain the freedom of imprisoned intellectuals, though repeated appeals he has made for an improvement in the quality of the Cuban press have failed totally. Anecdotes frequently circulate in Latin America concerning García Márquez’s whispered criticism in endless private conversations with Fidel Castro about the state of affairs in Cuba. But this confidential whispering, accounts of which are passed on to intimates by both men, strikes me as an act more of complicity than of conscience—especially in view of the hyperbole of the eulogies that the writer has publicly lavished on the Comandante.

When I read one of Gabriel García Márquez’s essays on the Comandante, I was reminded of paeans to Stalin—of the whole state of mind described by Arthur Koestler in Darkness at Noon. García Márquez praises Fidel Castro for needing only six hours of sleep after a day’s hard work—the same six hours that were often presented as proof of Josef Stalin’s vitality, extolled in writings that also described his Kremlin window lit until the small hours of night—and praises the wisdom of the Comandante in stating that “learning to rest is as important as learning to work.”

If the cumulative tasks in Fidel Castro’s workday as it is described by García Márquez are counted up, the Castro who emerges is a prodigy—someone who triumphs by supernatural intelligence: “His rarest virtue is the ability to foresee the evolution of an event to its farthest-reaching consequences,” and “He has breakfast with no less than two hundred pages of news from the entire world” (a long breakfast, surely), and “He has to read fifty-odd documents” daily.

And the list goes on: “No one can explain how he has the time or what method he employs to read so much and so fast. A physician friend of his, out of courtesy, sent him his newly published orthopedic treatise, without expecting him, of course, to read it, but one week later he received a letter from Castro with a long list of observations. .. There is a vast bureaucratic incompetence affecting almost every realm of daily life, especially domestic happiness, which has forced Fidel Castro himself, almost thirty years after victory, to involve himself personally in such extraordinary matters as how bread is made and the distribution of beer…. He has created a foreign policy of world-power dimensions…”

Fidel Castro, then, has a secret method, unknown to the rest of mankind, for reading quickly, and he knows a lot about orthopedics, and yet, thirty years after the revolution he hasn’t managed to organize a system for baking bread and distributing beer… <newyorker.com/magazine/1990/08/13/a-sum…>

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Muhly, James D. Muhly (1985): Sources of Tin & the Beginnings of Bronze Metallurgy: ‘The tin resources of the Mediterranean world, as known from modern geological survey, are insignificant in terms of modern economic geology…. Keep in mind that, writing in the mid-fifth century B.C., Herodotus summed up his investigations… by stating that: “Of the extreme tracts of Europe towards the west I cannot speak with any certainty; for I do not allow that there is any river to which the barbarians give the name of Eridanus, emptying itself into the northern sea, whence (as the tale goes) amber is procured; nor do I know of any islands called the Tin Islands, whence the tin comes which we use…. Though I have taken great pains, I have never been able to get an eye-witness that there is any sea on the further side of Europe. Nevertheless, tin and amber do certainly come to us from the ends of the earth… (Hdt. 3.115, translation by G. Rawlinson.)”

This passage, one of the most famous for the study of ancient geography, clearly shows that Herodotus, who seems to have devoted some effort to working out the problem, was unable to learn anything regarding the sources of tin being consumed in Periclean Athens. The best he could come up with were vague stories regarding the mysterious Tin Islands (Kassiterides), about whose very existence Herodotus obviously had his doubts.10 The only certainty in the matter was the relationship between tin and amber, both said to come from the “ends of the earth”….

We are dealing here with a period of history—the fifth century B.C.—about which we know a great deal, far more than ever will be known about the Bronze Age world. Periclean Athens was importing large amounts of tin. The inscriptions relating to the casting of the Athena Promachos list single purchases of tin as large as 150 talents or almost 4,000 kg. We also learn from these texts that a talent of tin sold for 233 drachmas while the price of copper was just over 35 drachmas per talent.” These values would give a tin:copper ratio of 1:6.6.

We have, then, considerable evidence regarding trade in, price and use of tin in Classical Athens, but little evidence regarding the actual source of that tin. If Herodotus failed to get beyond the tall stories told by sailors, stories told perhaps more to confuse and to obfuscate than to instruct, we have little chance of doing better for the Bronze Age world… <https://doi.org/10.2307/504330>


Profile Books: The Unaccountability Machine (Hardback): ‘Part-biography, part-political thriller, The Unaccountability Machine is a rousing exposé of how management failures lead organisations to make catastrophic errors. ‘Entertaining, insightful … compelling’ Financial Times. ‘A corporation, or a government department isn’t a conscious being, but it is an artificial intelligence. It has the capability to take decisions which are completely distinct from the intentions of any of the people who compose it. And under stressful conditions, it can go stark raving mad.’

When we avoid taking a decision, what happens to it? In The Unaccountability Machine, Dan Davies examines why markets, institutions and even governments systematically generate outcomes that everyone involved claims not to want. He casts new light on the writing of Stafford Beer, a legendary economist who argued in the 1950s that we should regard organisations as artificial intelligences, capable of taking decisions that are distinct from the intentions of their members.

Management cybernetics was Beer’s science of applying self-regulation in organisational settings, but it was largely ignored - with the result being the political and economic crises that that we see today. With his signature blend of cynicism and journalistic rigour, Davies looks at what’s gone wrong, and what might have been, had the world listened to Stafford Beer when it had the chance… <https://profilebooks.com/work/the-unaccountability-machine/>

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BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-04-06 Sa

The rising possibility of not a soft landing but rather of no landing; data science & standard liberal arts as the new trivium & quadrivium foundational curriculum; Sean Carroll on the forthcoming not-really-a-singularity in human society; the US & the Eurozone since 2004; very briefly noted; & BRIEFLY NOTED for 2024-04-02…

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SubStack Notes:

Economics: With each month that passes in which what we thought was a substantially restrictive monetary policy fails to send the economy into a recession accompanied by a frantic reversal and easing, the odds of the particular “long boom” scenario increase. This “long boom “scenario is one of a substantial increase in the perceived value of investment driving interest rates markedly higher for a time—at least the medium term. Whether we avoid having it all ending in tears depends on whether we (a) actually get the productivity boosts that investing firms see within their grasp, and (b) successfully rebalance the economy to lower-deficit and lower-consumption shares of output configuration in time:

Tracy Alloway & Joe Weisenthal: Odd Lots Newsletter: It’s the Long Boom: ‘This is the macro story of the moment. The Long Boom. The no landing. The economy that keeps chugging along mightily, even in the face of high rates and a presumed rate cutting cycle that keeps getting pushed out further and further into the future…. Greenification… electrification… artificial intelligence and data-center boom… nearshoring…. One of Steve [Eisman]’s main contentions is that companies that used to be cyclical have turned into secular… sustained demand tailwinds for things like cement, or lighting or HVAC equipment… that won’t necessarily fluctuate with this quarter’s GDP or the next one…. That transition from cyclical to secular is broadening out with all the secondary and tertiary companies facilitating this capex boom… <bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-…>

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Human Capital: What will be the metis of the tekhne of MAMLM? What will be the skill- and experience-sets that allow people to use generative AI and related tools powerfully and effectively in the future? In my view, a good deal of it will be computer science-adjacent. Why? For the same reason that a deep fluency in Old Enochian was essential for a successful demon-summoning wizard. But I think Tim Burke is right that a liberal education—the set of knowledges that orient you to the human world and to how humanity works as an anthology intelligence that the Trivium and the Quadrivium were groping toward a thousand years ago—is still the right way to go:

Tim Burke: ‘I’m reaching for… a future with generative AI where it’s a tool with limited but considerable uses… the enhancement of other intermediaries and tools. The word processor… changed the process of writing in some very notable ways…. We’ve accepted the word processor and embedded the changes in our collective understanding of the work of writing.… If you look at… Midjourney, the people who are consistently getting the most interesting and valuable results… know art history… about visual aestheticshow generative AI generally works, and… Midjourney as a tool and interface. They also often know where to find digital images and how to process and alter images in other tools…. There are people I see using it who are good at all of those things, and it shows… If we are… training shepherds of AI… that program of study… will… be… effective connection between existing things [we teach]… <timothyburke.substack.com/p/academia-th…>

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ONE AUDIO: Sean Carroll Believes Not in the Singularity But Rather in a Likely Imminent Phase Transition in Human Life:

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Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Economics: Kevin Nguyen (2023): The next era of San Francisco commercial real estate will begin in 2024: ‘One of the last major commercial real estate moves of the year in San Francisco was… the 20-story office tower at 33 New Montgomery St. is being listed at $80 million, a 46% haircut from the $146 million it traded hands for in 2014…. An increasing number of those who made investments before the pandemic are now coming out on the losing end…. What’s… likely is that 2024 will represent a turning-of-the-page moment in San Francisco, a real estate reset where past expectations are no longer palatable, and well-positioned players enter the game buying low…. Falling property values have prompted other parties just last week to settle with lenders for a reduced price instead of the costly and time-consuming foreclosure process…. 115 Sansome St., where the Vanbarton Group won a competitive bid on a building it already owned. The owners reportedly closed an all-cash deal for around $35 million, which is less than the $54 million loan it took from Bank of America in 2016, according to public records… <https://sfstandard.com/2023/12/22/downtown-san-francisco-commecial-real-estate-new-era-2024/>

  2. Martin Sandbu: Three economic zombies worth fighting: ‘Bad policy ideas that are surprisingly widely held…. My third bugbear is a particular form of opposition to the minimum wage… [now] 25 years… in the UK, and… [at] the longtime aspiration level of two-thirds of the median wage for workers above 21 years of age…. [It] has not reduced employment. As Gavin Kelly explains in an FT op-ed, “this is what a policy triumph looks like”…. But old habits die hard and there is still an instinct in policy circles, let alone in business circles, to assume that stricter rules for how employers treat their workers are ipso facto a brake on productivity…. [There] cannot be an argument against enforcing the laws already on the books that it would be inconvenient for businesses to have to follow them. Weak enforcement… only serves to undermine law-abiding companies…. Making it harder for businesses to stick to their unproductive habits is a feature, not a bug… <https://www.ft.com/content/8dc64a68-ca1e-4632-9888-9eaf3826ca76>

  3. Matt Levine: A Hedge Fund That’s Also a Newspaper: ‘One way to think of this business model is that Hunterbrook is essentially an activist short-selling hedge fund, like Hindenburg Research: It investigates companies, finds problems, shorts the companies, and then noisily publishes its investigation…. Another way to think of this business model is that it is a salary arbitrage. It is expensive to hire hedge fund analysts to investigate companies all over the world. It is cheaper to hire journalists! You might find more tradable signals with 20 journalists than you can with one hedge-fund analyst…. If you can find out bad news about companies, there are a lot of ways to make money. Selling ads is not one of the better ones!… <https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-02/a-hedge-fund-that-s-also-a-newspaper>

  4. Central Country: Sarah Zheng: China’s Vague Hopes for Tech to Reboot Its Economy: ‘I’m just back from Beijing’s annual meeting of the China Communist Party elite…. At the Great Hall of the People last week, members of China’s ruling party gathered to talk about how to boost innovation, particularly in “disruptive and frontier technologies.” That came with a 10% increase in this year’s national budget for science and technology, to $51.6 billion. Now, after Beijing’s bruising crackdown on the internet sector, it seems that President Xi Jinping is looking to other segments of its vast tech industry—like chips and AI—for answers on how to revive growth. But it was difficult to find those answers…. I finally managed to stop a member…y from Guangdong, who said his focus this year was on promoting “new productive forces” through technological innovation. But when asked about how this would help China deal with US curbs on chip and tech imports, he paused before mustering: “I have not thought about this deeply yet.” Then he quickly dashed off…. “New productive forces” may be the catchphrase of the day, but there is only so much that can be said on how those forces will be unleashed on the economy and tech sector… <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-12/china-economy-seeks-hope-in-tech-investment?cmpid=BBD031224_TECH>

  5. Nouriel Roubini: China Confronts the Middle-Income Trap: ‘The shift back to state capitalism over the last decade is plainly incompatible with President Xi Jinping’s development goals…. When China was smaller and poorer, a sharp increase in its exports was manageable in global markets. But now that it is the world’s second-largest economy, any dumping of its excess capacity will be met by even more draconian tariffs and protectionism targeting Chinese goods…. China therefore needs a new growth model concentrated on domestic services—rather than goods—and private consumption…. It is not clear that Chinese leaders fully appreciate the challenges they face…. After sidelining market-oriented technocrats such as Li [Qiang]… Li Keqiang… Yi Gang… Liu He and Wang Qishan… Xi has created new party committees on economic and financial affairs that supersede government bodies… [and] surrounded himself with advisers like He Lifeng… and Zheng Shanjie… sympathetic to the obsolete dogma of state capitalism. Lofty statements and mantras about reforms and attracting foreign investment mean little. What matters are the actual policies that China pursues over the next year, which will show whether it can circumvent the middle-income trap and return to the path of more robust growth… <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-middle-income-trap-more-likely-with-state-capitalism-by-nouriel-roubini-2024-04>

  6. MAMLM: K.C. Raybould: ‘AlphaFold has helpd find new therapeutic psychedelics, drug treatments, and neglected diseases. It is… a great example of augmenting human labor… a solved computational problem… as a basis for further research… get to beneficial results much faster…. AlphaFold is literally making the world better in a way imitative AI simply does not. But imitative AI gets the attention and the research dollars. In part because a significant portion of Silicon Valley leadership hates workers and relishes the idea of an all-computer workforce. but more so because it is one area where, if it could ever be made to work as well as it hype-men claim it does/can, then they cold make massive amounts of money…. If we properly incentivized AI companies through liability and copyright laws and used the power of tax incentives and subsidies to reward people who build AlphaFolds more than those who build Fancy Clippy, we can reap the benefits of AI for all of society, not just those at the top of the Silicon Valley pyramids… <https://kcraybould.substack.com/p/the-ai-good-lost-in-the-hype>

  7. Gerben Wierda: ‘What still isn’t clear to most people is that with GenAI: (1) useful memorisation and unacceptable training data leakage are technically the same thing; (2) creativity and ‘hallucinations’ are technically the same thing. They are the same. We just stick two different labels on them based on if we like/want the result or not… <https://open.substack.com/pub/garymarcus/p/when-will-the-genai-bubble-burst?r=d0v&utm_campaign=comment-list-share-cta&utm_medium=web&comments=true&commentId=52886120>

  8. Public Reason: Noah Smith: : ‘The feeling that the world broke in the early 2010s emerged from a perfect storm. Smartphones and social media arrived just in time for Americans to rage at each other over the country’s increasingly racialized politics and the built-up economic stresses released by the Great Recession. Whether America can put itself back together after that storm, or what that new country will look like, is still an open question. Racial polarization is falling, and there are many signs that Americans are starting to turn away from identitarian conflict. Meanwhile, wages have been steadily growing again, inequality has plateaued, and middle-class wealth has recovered. And there are signs that Americans are starting to turn their backs on the most divisive social media platforms and partisan news outlets… <https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-did-the-world-break-in-the-early>

  9. Neofascism: Tim Burke: The News: On Definitions: ‘Some… fastidiously insist that Trumpism is not fascist or not even an “ism”… are… defend[ing] the proposition that whatever is bad about Trump is continuously and undifferentiatedly bad about… the last 50, 75 or one hundred years…. In practice, that feels like saying, “If recent events have spurred you to mobilize, we don’t want you, because you didn’t see it was just as bad before now.” It feels at the least like bad politics, a kind of vanguardist exclusivity. But it also feels wrong…. On the other side… some ostentaciously centrist or center-right thinkers who try to contest the use of “fascism”… are moving to create a possible bridge to that catastrophic future that will be just wide enough for the prescient apologists to stomach moving onto the side of a Trumpist regime…. I don’t care what we call… [it] as long as we call it not only bad but comprehensively worse than bad… not business as usual. Your ass-covering apologetics will not protect you, your dreams of domesticating the monsters are folly. There is not a revolutionary pony hiding in the mountains of shit that are now flowing towards the seats of power… <https://timothyburke.substack.com/p/the-news-on-definitions>

  10. Human Capital: Tim Burke: ‘Here and there Zoom University worked out pretty well for students and faculty. There were small numbers of learners who were well-served by online instruction who don’t flourish face-to-face, and students who had mastered the habit of learning on their own powered through Zoom classes much as they would otherwise. There were pleasures in teaching from one’s own home as well, and new pedagogical tricks to try. So while the live demo showed that a fully online university is not the best for most people, not the right thing most of the time, there are things that are going to stick around that are enhancements of our work, not disruptive or destructive… <https://timothyburke.substack.com/p/academia-the-heroic-prompt-engineers>

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BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-04-02 Tu

Faux & Chafkin on FTX a grift from the get-go; Levine is on the point of abandoning belief in “fundamental values’; we are not quite completely ignorant about why MAMLMs do what they do; Joe Lieberman as VBER—Value Below Expected Replacement—champion; industrial policy successes & failures; why have Republicans suddenly decided that the economy is not but the “border” is a crisis?; millionaires claiming to be “just getting by”; & Sub-Turing BradBot: Finally Ready for Prime Time!—Well, maybe not; NOTES: ChatGPT4’s Current Ability to “Reason”, & What Follows from That…; READING: Jo Walton (1998): “The Lurkers Support Me in Email”; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-28 Th…

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SubStack NOTES:

CrytoGrifting: Back in the foundational days of probability and statistics, Enlightenment-Era mathematicians spent much brainpower grappling with the existence in a fair game of strategies that seemed overwhelmingly likely to win. The answer, of course, is that in the small proportion of the time you lose you lose really big, and the smaller the chance of loss the bigger the magnitude of the loss when you do. But for people who cannot keep the entire ex ante distribution of outcomes in their mind, selling unhedged far-out-of-the-money puts is, as Stanford’s Robert Hall wisely once said to me, “the highest-probability way of appearing to be an immense financial genius”. This is why ijt is important to look not at actual or counterfactual gambling-for-resurrection results, but at procedures, protocols, and risk-management practices.

Bankers are paid the big bucks for being able to keep a weather eye on the probability of a run and to have guarded against it—which is why Jamie Dimon is now King of Wall Street. Exchange runners are paid the big bucks for making sure that they are never vulnerable to a run. But competently running an exchange was not the business Sam Bankman-Fried was ever in. The big questions I have about how it shook out are for those who funded Sam Bankman-Fried’s defense and those who contributed to funding that defense. He would have been much better off with a free public defender, who would at least have told him: Given Caroline Ellison’s testimony, and given John Ray’s attitude toward your management practices, you have no chance at trial—plead guilty to whatever deal you can get. Bankman-Fried’s lawyers and funders really do need to look into the mirror:

Zeke Faux & Max Chafkin: FTX’s Original Sin Is a Warning to All of Crypto: ‘Evidence from the criminal trial of Sam Bankman-Fried suggests fraud was built into FTX from the very beginning….. The total balance for an “insurance fund” listed on FTX’s website to reassure customers was actually made up using a random number generator…. Just months after the exchange opened, FTX created a backdoor for Alameda… overr[iding] FTX’s internal controls, making it possible for Alameda to borrow almost unlimited sums from FTX customers…. To deposit money at FTX, customers had to send it to Alameda. They were led to believe the funds would be passed along and held on their behalf. Instead, Alameda in many cases just spent the money. Bankman-Fried acknowledged most of this at the trial but said none of it was malicious…. FTX wasn’t a good company run by a bad guy. It was a business that was crooked almost from Day 1… <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-03-27/sam-bankman-fried-prison-sentence-shaped-by-ftx-crypto-fraud>

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TrumpGrifts: A bunch of jumped-up monkeys who can be convinced to self-immolate because dulce et decorum pro patria mori can also be convinced to make a Donald Trump into a president—or a billionaire. Perhaps the really interesting thing is that there are so many people, many young, mostly male, who find it beside the point to try to assess the odds on their gambles—for whom it is enough that someone is willing to tell a story, and swear that this story is true:

Matt Levine: Trump Media’s Business Doesn’t Matter: ‘Three years ago… people realized that… while the value of a company’s cash flows probably does set a real floor under its stock price… it does not put a ceiling on the price…. There is no law of nature requiring that a stock’s price has to equal the present value of its future cash flows, or even that it has to equal the market’s collective estimate of its future cash flows. That’s just a matter of tradition, and the tradition is only like 80 years old…. Stocks… [could] be pure tokens in a psychological gambling game…. I said… “like three years ago,” because… GameStop… meme stocks, stocks that trade purely on sentiment and attention…. But really I think the third era started a bit earlier, with cryptocurrency…. With time, I have become more comfortable with the answer to “what are we all doing here?” The answer is “not fundamental analysis.” Maybe it is “having fun online.” Maybe it is “playing a complex game of mass psychology.” Maybe it is “using our investments as a form of self-expression, buying stocks and cryptocurrencies we identify with and feeling better about ourselves if they go up.”… Maybe there are mechanisms to discover; maybe in 10 years there will be textbooks on Meme Stock Analysis…. Again, I don’t think I’m all that serious about any of this, or at least I hope I’m not… <bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-…>

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MAMLM: The unreasonable effectiveness of MAMLM in simulating linguistic and artistic behavior is deeply disturbing. And, given that, the failure of MAMLM in almost all reasoning tasks in which they can neither draw almost immediately on their training data nor are “Clever Hansed” to the extreme is also very disturbing. For example, ask for a Chicago Style manual citation to one of my weblog posts, and it fails to reason the way to the right answer:

Will Douglas Heaven: Large language models can do jaw-dropping things. But nobody knows exactly why: ‘And that’s a problem…. “Obviously, we’re not completely ignorant,” says Mikhail Belkin, a computer scientist at the University of California, San Diego. “But our theoretical analysis is so far off what these models can do. Like, why can they learn language? I think this is very mysterious.”… “This is something that, until recently, we thought should not work,” says Belkin. “That means that something was fundamentally missing. It identifies a gap in our understanding of the world.” Belkin… thinks there could be a hidden mathematical pattern in language that large language models somehow come to exploit: “Pure speculation but why not? The fact that these things model language is probably one of the biggest discoveries in history,” he says. “That you can learn language by just predicting the next word with a Markov chain—that’s just shocking to me”… <technologyreview.com/2024/03/04/1089403…>

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Moral Responsibility: Fortunately for us all, Joe Lieberman’s role as “Founding Chair” of “No Labels” appears to have failed to raise the chances that neofascist Republicans will dominate American politics in the next few years. And Joe Lieberman was just an average senator But it remains that case that, of all American senators since 2000, Joe Lieberman had the largest VBER—Value Below Expected Replacement. Other senators as bad and worse can be seen largely as transmission belts reflecting the views of the majority of the state from which they were from. Joe Lieberman made a big difference. If not for him, ObamaCare would have had a public option, for one thing.

No Lieberman sympathizers could ever enunciate a sensible policy reason for his decision to veto the public option. The only two possibilities that seemed to make any sense for his actions were (1) attention-seeking chaos monkey, and (2) a profound psychological need to show a Black man that he was not that powerful after all:

Mara Gay: Why Lieberman Hates the Public Option: ‘Theories explaining the senator’s threat to filibuster the health care bill if it includes a public option… <theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2009/1…>

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Learning from Industrial Policy Successes and Failures: Public Banks, Green Steel, and Dirty Steel

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ONE IMAGE: Republicans Are Easily-Grifted Morons Department:

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ANOTHER IMAGE: Just-Getting-by Little Rich Man:

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Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Economics: Hunter L. Clark & Matthew Higgins: Can China Catch Up with Greece?: ‘Xi Jinping… goal of reaching the per capita income of “a mid-level developed country by 2035.”… [But] mounting headwinds from population aging and from diminishing returns to China’s investment-centered growth model… increased state management… crystallization of legacy credit issues… limits on access to key foreign technologies…. [With] generous assumptions concerning future growth fundamentals, China appears likely to close only a fraction of the gap with high-income countries in the years ahead… <https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/10/can-china-catch-up-with-greece/>

  2. Edward White & Cheng Leng: Will Xi’s manufacturing plan be enough to rescue China’s economy?: ‘The president has won praise for ending a credit boom, but trading partners now fear a flood of cheap exports…. “New quality productive forces”… has in early 2024 become shorthand for Xi’s vision of economic growth underpinned by China’s increasingly advanced manufacturing industries. This month the phrase was used nine times in a 6,000-word essay published by state news agency Xinhua, which also elevated the importance of Xi’s economic reform programme to that of Deng Xiaoping…. “For this to work, China must expand its share of global manufacturing. That needs to be accommodated by the rest of the world. The rest of the world is unlikely to do that,” says Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University and senior fellow at think-tank Carnegie China…
    <https://www.ft.com/content/ae517907-0244-4344-ad0a-1d029c03555b>

  3. Economic History: Barry Eichengreen (2011): Escaping the Middle-Income Trap: ‘Growth slowdowns typically occur at per capita incomes of $16,700.4 At that point, the per capita growth rate slows from 5.6 percent to 2.1 percent, or by an average of 3.5 percentage points. For purposes of comparison, note that China’s per capita GDP, in constant 2005 international (purchasing power parity) prices, was $8,500 in 2007. Extrapolating its growth rate between then and now, China will reach the threshold value of $15,100 around 2016—that is to say, five years from now…. Growth slowdowns are almost always total factor productivity (TFP) growth slowdowns…. This said, there is no iron law of slowdowns. There is considerable dispersion in the income levels at which they occur. Mean per capita income may be $16,700, as noted earlier, but the standard deviation is $6,000…. The association between exceptionally high investment rates and the likelihood of slowdowns suggests that high investment may put off the day of reckoning by supporting aggregate demand, but it can come back to bite you if that high investment delivers an unproductive capital stock that depresses the growth of aggregate supply subsequently. The other provocative result is that slowdowns are more likely in countries with undervalued real exchange rates…. Further rebalancing of the Chinese economy away from fixed investment in favor of consumption, and normalization of the real exchange rate to encourage the shift away from low-value-added assembly operations, will greatly increase the likelihood of a smooth landing… <https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/3097/2011-Eichengreen_final.pdf>

  4. MAMLM: Anton Korinek: Large Language Models and Cognitive Automation: ‘Lots of interesting new questions: What will the new era of cognitive automation imply for: • labor markets • education • technological progress • … • social welfare? As of right now, human brains enhanced by LLMs are (still!) the best technology around to answer these!… <https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2023-03-Language-Models-Brookings-Korinek.pdf>

  5. Cognition: Barry Ritholtz: Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?: ‘Kahneman in Thinking Fast and Slow: “Flawed stories of the past shape our views of the world and our expectations for the future. Narrative fallacies arise inevitably from our continuous attempt to make sense of the world. The explanatory stories that people find compelling are simple; are concrete rather than abstract; assign a larger role to talent, stupidity, and intentions than to luck; and focus on a few striking events that happened rather than on the countless events that failed to happen. Any recent salient event is a candidate to become the kernel of a causal narrative… <https://ritholtz.com/2024/03/danny-kahneman-what-if-everything-is-narrative-fallacy/>

  6. Public Reason: Noah Smith (2021): Noah Smith’s writing advice: ‘Responses… someone writes something and you respond to it…. Takes… something is happening… and you want to give your thoughts on it…. Theses… an idea about the world that you want to advance…. Lessons… when you have some piece of expertise…. Roundups are when you gather a whole bunch of arguments, evidence, or other relevant info… Narratives… where you want to explain how you think… but it’s a gestalt impression…. Write less than you know…. A solid argument is constructed not just of the things you write down, but also of plenty of things you didn’t write down…. That background knowledge can’t all be written down in the post. It’s in your head, not on the page… <https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/noah-smiths-writing-advice>

  7. Journamalism: John Macintire: ‘My trust in the Economist starts from a very low base, is then an increasing function of the subject’s distance from the City with some downward adjustment for US subjects, where poorly repressed longing for the GW Bush administration is always a subtext… <https://braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-noted-for-2023-03-28-th/comment/52661146?r=d0v>

  8. Neofascism: Will Lloyd: Even Tories seem ashamed of their record: ‘There is no good parking… school… pub… [or] post office [in] Kirby Sigston… [whose] residents are served by a 12th-century, grade I listed church and by the man who bought the local manor in 2015… Rishi Sunak… If a weekend “mega-poll” is to be believed, Richmond is desperate to see the back of Rishi Sunak…. The most notable thing about current and former Conservatives is how eager they are to blame everyone else for their conservatism…. George Osborne… [on] the “lie” of Brexit…. Former Treasury hatchet man David Gauke… [on] austerity going “too far”. Dominic Cummings… accus[ing] Boris Johnson of “cake-ism”…. “Absolute shit. Abominable,” was the verdict of one bravely anonymous cabinet minister under Theresa May… [who is now] “woke and proud”…. You have to wonder what Suella Braverman will have to do…. What will the Conservatives leave behind them in 2024? Books, podcasts, essays, briefings and interviews all saying the same thing. Never trust us with anything again. It’s a message clear enough to shake Rishi Sunak out of Kirby Sigston…<https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/even-tories-seem-ashamed-of-their-record-r87fmxt8q>

  9. Rick Perlstein: ‘It doesn’t matter whether you and I think revolution is being pursued, it’s what the REACTIONARIES think; an ethnographic approach here is imperative. The same problem carries over to Corey’s argument that reaction cannot have tipped over into something worse called “fascism”, because fascism must definitionally be a reaction to socialism…. Is it [Corey Robin’s] argument that this would NOT be fascism (or possibly even reaction?), because the ACA is not ACTUALLY “revolutionary” nor, whatever the right-wing militants say, “socialism”?… Is there a useful heuristic word (I’m pragmatist about this, that these ideologies aren’t “real” things that can be objectively pinned down, they are ultimately JUST heuristics) that [Corey Robin] find[s] more useful?… <https://twitter.com/rickperlstein/status/1774522151577567368>

  10. Robert Farley: On Global Authoritarianism: ‘My own view is that the idea that the current authoritarian moment on the right bears no resemblance to “fascism” is a pleasant fantasy that enables the self-identified Left to reject any notion of a crisis that requires solidarity with mainstream liberalism; if it walks like a Nazi and talks like a Nazi then it might as well be treated like a Nazi… <https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2024/04/on-global-authoritarianism>

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Sub-Turing BradBot: Finally Ready for Prime Time!

Well, maybe not: the first two conversations with the 2024-03-29 version at <https://chat.openai.com/g/g-L3OgqXJbL-sub-turing-bradbot-2024-03-29-public>…

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This is very good! Exactly what I would want to see!:

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But this is not so good:

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What I wanted it to say, of course, is:

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The alarming thing is not only that it reached for a general “what is the exam period” answer when the question was asking for a specific three-hour course exam window, but that it thinks “this spring” refers to spring 2023.

And I do not know how to cure this, except by hand-coding Q&As into the RAG-accessed knowledge base, crossing my fingers, and hoping…

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And even the real professionals seem to largely be in a similar position:

Brian McCullough & Nat Friedman: TechMeme Ride Home: Nat Friedman Interview: ‘In the case of [Microsoft’s not-quite acquisition of] Inflection[.ai]: Look, there [are] two sides to every transaction. If I am Mustafa [Suleyman]… I don’t have a hit… and I believe in scaling laws…. I really want to… build AGI and compete with Demis [Hassabis] and Sam [Altman]…. [But Inflection.ai is not] a path to the compute scale that I need…. Mustafa is probably quite excited about going to a place where he can do that.

And… Satya [Nadella]… wants… a backup plan…. Acquir[ing] Inflection[.ai] without [quite] acquiring it… [is] that backup plan…. He’s got a team, he’s got a model that claims to be GPT4-ish… he’s got a cluster that’s working and a place to collect talent…. And so he’s got a internal OpenAI….

[It’s] a priesthood: training these models is… bespoke. It’s an artisanal thing… like the IP doesn’t matter so much as getting the artisans… like you almost don’t need to acquire the company if you can get the talent….

I think that’s true. The… amount of tacit knowledge that’s involved in successfully training a high-quality large model is still quite high. So you can read the papers, you can look at the open source, but getting these things to train and converg… over these large clusters and managing all of that—there’s still quite a lot of that knowledge… not published, not written down…. The individual items are probably small, but they really add up…. And so the set of people who really know how to do that is small… <https://www.ridehome.info/show/techmeme-ride-home/> <https://app.podscribe.ai/episode/98561298>

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It can arrange the words. And because language is a tool for communicating ideas, 90% of the time the ideas will come along for the ride. But only 90% of the time…

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NOTES: ChatGPT4's Current Ability to "Reason", & What Follows from That...

Time to actually try to create for myself an informed view on what the likely econo-societal effects of MAMLM—Modern Advanced Machine-Learning Models—will be. Wish me luck!…

Suppose I ask ChatGPT4 for a Chicago Manual of Style citation to one of my weblog posts <https://braddelong.substack.com/p/hoisted-from-the-archives-information>: what does it produce? This:

How is it doing? Well, the weblog post is this:

So, on the one hand, ChatGPT4 did very good. The word is that the format is supposed to be:

Pai, Tanya. 2017. “The Squishy, Sugary History of Peeps.” Vox, April 11, 2017. www.vox.com/culture/2……<https://www.chicagomanualofstyle.org/tools_citationguide/citation-guide-2.html>

ChatGPT4 “identifies” and slots lastname, firstname, title, website, and URL into the format. It does all of these correctly.

On the other hand, the date on the post is March 26, 2024 (or possibly September 3, 2001).

The date on the post is not March 14, 2023.

Where does the “March 14, 2023” that ChatGPT4 thinks is the date of the post come from?

Is the piece somehow very closely related to something I published on March 14, 2023? That was my first thought. But, looking back, I do not see how it could “think” so:


So what, then, is going on? Why did it do so well on the bulk of the problem. And, given that it had the computational and syntactic capability to do so well on the problem, from where did “2023” arise to overwrite the correct “2024”? And from where did “March 14” arise to overwrite the correct “March 26”?

The answer seems to be: We do not know. Nobody has much of an idea at all.

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READING: Jo Walton (1998): "The Lurkers Support Me in Email"

Perhaps the best poem written about the early internet. The main implicit point still holds true today…

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The Lurkers Support Me in Email

by Jo Walton

To the tune of “My Bonny Lies Over the Ocean”.

The lurkers support me in email They all think I’m great don’t you know. You posters just don’t understand me But soon you will reap what you sow.

Lurkers, lurkers, lurkers support me, you’ll see, you’ll see off in e-mail the lurkers support me, you’ll see.

Oh it’s true, and you know they support me. There’s thousands of lurkers out there! They all understand my intentions you posters are not being fair!

Lurkers, lurkers, lurkers support me, you’ll see, you’ll see off in e-mail the lurkers support me, you’ll see

The lurkers support me in email “So why don’t they post?” you all cry They’re scared of your hostile intentions they’re not as courageous as I.

Lurkers, lurkers, lurkers support me, you’ll see, you’ll see off in e-mail the lurkers support me, you’ll see

One day I’ll round up all my lurkers we’ll have a newsgroup of our own without all this flak from you morons my lurkers will post round my throne.

Lurkers, lurkers, lurkers support me, you’ll see, you’ll see off in e-mail the lurkers support me, you’ll see.

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Walton, Jo. 1998. “The Lurkers Support Me in Email”. May 16. <http://www.jowaltonbooks.com/poetry/whimsy/the-lurkers-support-me-in-email/>.

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BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-28 Th

Should I trust the “Economist” on a likely neofascist turn in South Africa?; major U.S. COVID missteps; Ed Glaeser on cities; Kara Swisher & Scott Galloway on the partial eclipse of the office; national manufacturing trade balances; very briefly noted; & HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES from 2001: Information Technology in the Service of Society, Dealing with Global Warming Over the Next Fifty Years, DRAFT: Time to Start Thinking About What to Teach in the Fall!, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-23 Sa…

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SubStack Notes:

Neofascism: Should I trust the Economist on the current configuration of politics and the likely outcome of the next election in South Africa? Who should I read to get a more in-depth and well-grounded take?:

Economist: Jacob Zuma’s new party… uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK)…. Cyril Ramaphosa… may be faced with a crucial choice… try to build a coalition of pragmatists? Or… turn to ex-ANC figures, like Mr Zuma, and take South Africa in an even more populist and anti-Western direction?… The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF)… hard-left… Julius Malema… generally polls at around 10-12%…. Mr Zuma’s grievances… can pull on… the idea that the ANC has lost its way and must regain its “revolutionary” purpose—a notion also promoted by the EFF. MK… calls itself a “true liberation movement”. Yet, as an extensive judge-led commission of inquiry into “state capture” during Mr Zuma’s presidency found, the only thing that was liberated in that period was public funds…. [Can pull on] ethno-nationalism. Zulus are South Africa’s largest ethnic group…. Ramaphosa may need to do a deal…. Some in his party want to “bring home” the EFF and MK, which both want Soviet-style economic policies, such as land expropriation without compensation, and admire Vladimir Putin. Mr Ramaphosa’s supporters suggest he would prefer a government of national unity… <economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/20…>

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Plagues & State Capacity: There were four major errors in the American governance response to COVID: (1) The CDC’s decision to start lying to people—to say that masks did not work rather than that we wanted to reserve high-quality masks for doctors and nurses at the point of the sphere—(2) Trump’s extraordinary incompetence along so many dimensions, (3) the decision not t ramp up candidate vaccine production immediately upon vaccine design but rather to wait nine months for the Phase 3 trial process, & (4) the decision not to have the U.S. pay to vaccinate the world as fast as possible. Pretty much everything else is underflow, or is downstream from those clusterfuck decisions. But MattY has very good points about how the current retrospective politics-of-blame is highly contingent on Donald Trump’s being an idiot compared to Scott Morrison:

Matt Yglesias: 17 thoughts four years after Covid: ‘The intense partisan and ideological polarization around Covid that became such a dominant aspect of the experience was, I think, pretty contingent. Trump put travel restrictions in place on March 12 <washingtonpost.com/world/europe/europe-…, which was a week ahead of Australia closing its borders <timeout.com/sydney/news/australia-is-cl…. Australia quickly followed that with restrictions on internal travel <health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200315_0…, which Ron Desantis asked for on March 14 <politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/……. [In] Australia, Scott Morrison was a right-wing populist whose public profile pre-Covid was dominated by anti-immigration stuff…. If the Australian right could implement hard lockdowns to control the virus, I believe the American right could have as well. This probably would have saved a ton of lives…. Huge swathes of the discourse would be different. The USA would have joined right-wing Australia and other very order-oriented Asian countries and had much lower death rates than we saw in Europe, progressives’ favorite continent….

As liberals flailed, a distressingly large share of conservative commentary on Covid centered on just making things up…. They would say the disease was no worse than the flu. Or that it would magically evaporate by April. Or that the Covid deaths were a result of classification error. None of that is true, and its widespread circulation contributed to the much lower vaccine uptake among conservatives, and ultimately, the much higher death toll of the disease among conservative Americans….

It’s a really bad idea to map crisis-management onto… [preëxisting] ideological grooves… <slowboring.com/p/seventeen-thoughts-fou…>

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ONE VIDEO: Ed Glaeser: Triumph of the City:

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ONE AUDIO: Kara Swisher & Scott Galloway:

Future of Work: Why Remote and Hybrid Are Here to Stay:

<https://overcast.fm/+OwaKJuiQ4>

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ONE IMAGE: Manufacturing Trade Balances as Shares of Global GDP:

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Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Economics: Sebastian Di Tella, Benjamin M. Hébert & Pablo Kurlat: Aggregation, Liquidity, & Asset Prices with Incomplete Markets: ‘1. Households have a high marginal propensity to consume (MPC) from cash transfers… but a low MPC from capital gains in the stock market…. 2. At the aggregate level, consumption satisfies a simple Euler equation with the… conditionally expected return on a zero-beta equity portfolio…. 3. Aggregate consumption does not satisfy an Euler equation with safe rates…. There is a large and volatile spread between zero-beta and safe rates. 4. The securities market line is flat on average…. These facts can be jointly explained by the presence of liquidity frictions: safe assets are liquid and equities are not.… Trading frictions that prevent smooth rebalancing between a liquid and an illiquid account, and all payments must be made out of the liquid account…. The return of equities is well explained by aggregate consumption, with a large and time-varying zero-beta rate and a small risk premium, while the return of safe assets mostly reflects a large and volatile liquidity premium… <https://gsb-faculty.stanford.edu/sebastian-di-tella/files/2024/03/DiTellaHebertKurlat_March2024.pdf>

  2. Rachel Reeves: Let’s Get Britain’s Future Back: ‘It [would not] be right or honest to downplay the impact of the upheavals of recent years. Five Prime Ministers. Seven Chancellors. Twelve plans for growth. Institutions undermined. Decisions ducked and deferred. That political instability has fuelled economic instability and deterred investment…. With populists and protectionists the world over offering false solutions to vast and complex problems then the only defence of an open society and a trading economy is an approach which tackles the grievances on which they prey at root. A new Washington consensus is taking shape. I believe it is in our interest to embrace that consensus. But today Britain is little more than a spectator…. Modern industrial strategy… recognises the informational and capacity constraints of government, working in genuine partnership with business to identify the barriers and opportunities they face… [and] form an assessment of the industries which will be critical in determining our future… sectors in which we enjoy—or have the potential to enjoy—comparative advantage and can compete…. No easy answers, no quick fixes, no short cuts here… <https://labour.org.uk/updates/press-releases/rachel-reeves-mais-lecture/>

  3. Adam Tooze: ‘Keynesianism doesn’t abandon… Whiggish liberalism…. But it does deny that these verities translate into simple rules for action in the present….. As [Geoff] Mann puts it, it is… in the ‘short run’… that… maintaining “civilisation” must be undertaken’… [under] the pressures of necessity… ‘acknowledge… uncertainty and disarticulation, recognises imperfection and indeterminacy, and turns away from the long run to the immediacy of the moment’…. Keynesian[ism]… is impelled by an apprehension of the deep tensions within modernity, a highly dynamic socio-economic system that perpetually produces poverty and crises… which it contains by means of political ordering and reordering…. When the survival of the capitalist system is in question, as it was in 2008, the vast majority have too much at stake: we need the crisis-fighters. What’s more, as recent experience has shown, there are good reasons to defend technocratic government against the unreasoning passions of mass democracy…. The ultimate justification of Keynesianism hasn’t been simply the preservation of the status quo, but the promise of progress…. But if growth is the common denominator of the political philosophies we inherit from the 19th century, are those philosophies capable of grasping the existential challenges that are presented by climate change? As the world melts before our eyes, what does Keynesian managerialism have to offer our children and grandchildren? Don’t we need a revolution? But then what, today, is the promise of revolution?… This makes for grim reading… <https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v40/n17/adam-tooze/tempestuous-seasons>

  4. Brad W. Setser, Michael Weilandt & Volkmar Baur: China’s Record Manufacturing Surplus: ‘China’s broad dominance of manufacturing…. Its 35 percent share far exceeds its share of global output (just over 15 percent). Michael Pettis is right to emphasize that China is a production giant and a consumption pygmy…. China’s post-pandemic surplus in manufacturing—which has now reached about two percent of world GDP—far exceeds the peak surpluses run by export powerhouses like Japan and Germany. More importantly, China’s surplus shows no signs of shrinking. While there was a pause in the expansion of the surplus in 2023, that only came after a huge jump between 2018 and 2022. And now, Chinese policy continues to emphasize upgrading China’s capacity in advanced manufacturing as a major driver of future growth… <https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-record-manufacturing-surplus>

  5. Economic History: Andrew Garin & Jonathan L. Rothbaum: The Long-Run Impacts of Public Industrial Investment on Local Development and Economic Mobility: Evidence from World War II: ‘Publicly financed plants built in dispersed locations outside of major urban centers for security reasons during… World War II. Wartime plant construction had large and persistent impacts on local development… an expansion of relatively high-wage manufacturing employment throughout the postwar era…. Men born before WWII in counties where plants were built earned $1,200 (in 2020 dollars) or 2.5 percent more per year in adulthood relative to those born in counterfactual comparison regions, with larger benefits accruing to children of lower-income parents…. Iindividuals benefited primarily from the local expansion of higher-wage jobs to which they had access as adults, rather than because of developmental effects from exposure to better environments during childhood… <https://research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers/399/>

  6. James Feigenbaum & Daniel P Gross: Answering the Call of Automation: How the Labor Market Adjusted to Mechanizing Telephone Operation: ‘Between 1920 and 1940, AT&T undertook one of the largest automation investments in modern history, replacing operators with mechanical switching technology in over half of the U.S. telephone network…. How [did] this wave of automation affect… the labor market for young women[?]… It did not reduce future cohorts’ overall employment: the decline in operators was counteracted by employment growth in middle-skill clerical jobs and lower-skill service jobs…. Incumbent telephone operators were most impacted, and a decade later more likely to be in lower-paying occupations or no longer working… <https://academic.oup.com/qje/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/qje/qjae005/7614605>

  7. Matthias Flückiger, Mario Larch, Markus Ludwig, & Luigi Pascali: The dawn of civilization. Metal trade and the rise of hierarchy: ‘Latter half of the fourth millennium BC… from simple agrarian villages to complex urban civilizations… as far apart as the Nile Valley, Mesopotamia, Central Asia, and the Indus Valley…. Writing, cities with populations exceeding 10,000, and unprecedented socio-economic inequalities…. The discovery of bronze and the ensuing long-distance trade [may have] played a crucial role…. Trade corridors linking metal mines to fertile lands were more likely to experience the Urban Revolution. We propose that transit bottlenecks facilitated the emergence of a new taxing elite… <https://econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/1878.pdf>

  8. Politics: Li Bai: A Hard Road to Walk: ‘And do we not recall?/An independent man, Zhang Han/Whose heart remained untouched by fame,/Achieved great things, but when autumn winds/Recalled his home, he quit the game./The joy wine gives while we still live/Is greater prize for you and me/Than once we’re dead, our names be read/For a thousand years of history…

    Tang Poetry
    The case for caution in public service
    A Hard Road to Walk (3) Li Bai They say: Don’t stuff your mouth with coarse hill-grain Because your lord has lost the plain! Don’t dunk your ears in River Ying To duc…
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  9. Neofascism: Gary Saul Morson: Russian Exceptionalism: ‘What exactly ensured a common destiny for a group of people? The answer was geography, what Savitsky called… “place-development.” Geographical environment shapes culture…. The peoples of the Eurasian Steppe… from Hungary to Manchuria… display common psychology and therefore to have harmonious relations…. An unbridgeable chasm must always divide “oceanic” and “continental” cultures. The former embrace risk, entrepreneurship, and individualism… while the latter prefer tradition, conservatism, and collectivism…. This “Russian world” must acknowledge that its greatest enemy is and always will be Western liberalism…. Trubetskoy argued… “ideocracy presupposes the selection of the ruling echelon according to its faithfulness to a single common governing idea…united in a single ideological state organization” that will “control all aspects of life.” This collectivism ensures that the “last traces of individualism will disappear” and that a common outlook will “become the inalienable ingredient” of everyone’s psyche…. Eurasianism was not an alternative to totalitarianism but a different form of it…. Ukraine… despite its cultural and linguistic closeness to Russia, it has treasonously betrayed its proper role as part of the Russian world…. The Baltic states are part of European civilization, but Ukraine belongs to Eurasia… <https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/02/22/russian-exceptionalism-foundations-of-eurasianism/>

  10. Rajiv Sethi (2023): The Jackson-Johnson Proof: ‘The proof is original, elegant, and undoubtedly correct. But not everyone was in a mood to celebrate. Here is Charles Murray, conjecturing that the proof will eventually be found invalid, that a publication that proudly announced it would bury this uncomfortable truth, and that Hollywood would spin yet another false narrative…

Imperfect Information
The Jackson-Johnson Proof
About six weeks ago, Ne’Kiya Jackson and Calcea Johnson gave a talk at a meeting of the American Mathematical Society in which they presented a new trigonometric proof of the Pythagorean Theorem. This was remarkable for two reasons—trigonometric proofs of this theorem were once thought to be impossible, and the two students were teenagers still in high …
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HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Information Technology in the Service of Society

From 2001-09-03: How does this hold up today?…

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For perhaps 9000 years after the beginnings of agriculture the overwhelming proportion of human work lives were spent making things: growing crops, shearing sheep, spinning yarn, weaving cloth, throwing pots, cutting down trees, copying books, and so on, and so forth.

Technology did improve enormously over those 9000 years: contrast the clothes-making technology at the disposal of Henry VIII of England with that of Rameses II of Egypt three thousand years before; contrast the triple-crop paddy-irrigated rice- and water-control-based agriculture of the Yangtze Delta in eighteenth-century China with the scratch-the-soil-with-a-hoe agriculture of two thousand years before.

But as Thomas Robert Malthus first wrote in the 1790s, rising populations had put enough pressure on scarce natural resources to offset the benefits of better technology and keep living standards nearly constant for the people if not for the elite: American President Thomas Jefferson in 1803 A.D. certainly enjoyed a higher standard of living than Roman Consul Marcus Tullius Cicero in 63 B.C. Did Jefferson’s slaves enjoy a higher standard of living than Cicero’s? A large amount of archeological evidence has not yet found significant differences.

For the past two hundred and fifty years, since the start of the Industrial Revolution, the productivity of those workers who make things has exploded. Hand-spinners in the eighteenth century took 50,000 hours—20 full work-years—to spin 100 lbs of cotton into thread (Freeman and Louca (2001). Spinning of one sort or another took up perhaps 5% of total labor-time. Today it takes 40 work hours to spin 100 lbs. of cotton: a more than thousand-fold amplification of productivity in this one task.

As our productivity at growing crops and making things has exploded, demand for the things we make has grown too, but not fast enough to keep the crop-growing, food-cooking, mineral-extracting, clothes-making, box-carrying, and other goods-producing share of our economy’s labor force from falling. Today those who in any earlier age would be classified as “production workers”—and would have been the overwhelming majority of the labor force—are perhaps 20% of our economy, and the bulk of them are better characterized as machine-watchers and machine-fixers. According to Stanford’s Robert Hall, as early as 1980 there were twice as many salesmen in Ford-selling auto dealerships as there were assembly-line workers employed by Ford Motor Company.

So what are the rest of us—the other 80%—doing? In a sense, we all—from U.C. professors to chief technical officers to xerox operators, Ford Salesmen, cashiers, and parking-lot attendants—are and have long been “information workers”: people whose jobs are, if we examine them closely, largely concerned with determining what exactly the goods-producing sectors should make, how it should be made, where it should go, and to whom it should be distributed–and that is leaving aside the large chunk of our economy that is symbolic communication as an end in itself.

Today we see—not yet sharply, not yet clearly, but no longer dimly—the prospect that the ongoing technological revolutions in data processing and data communications will do for the “information” sectors of the economy something like what the Industrial Revolution did for goods-producing sectors like cotton spinning. As Steve Cohen over in the City Planning department here likes to say, you are now building the equivalent of the industrial-age tools for shaping and handling matter, but you are building tools for thought (Cohen, DeLong, and Zysman (2001)). And if we can figure out how to make these tools for thought fulfill their promise, they should produce a quantum jump in our technological power, economic productivity, and—we hope—quality of life of as many energy levels as the jump of the Industrial Revolution itself.

But there are major problems of social engineering and organizational design that stand in our way. A century or so ago, at the height of the Industrial Revolution, the market economy turned out to have an extraordinarily good fit with the developing industrial technologies of goods-making. It provided a framework of social organization that was extraordinarily effective in providing people with incentives to carry on activities that generated rapid technological development, capital accumulation, and economic growth.

An effective form of social organization faces decision makers with incentives that mirror the impacts of their actions on society as a whole. Because the goods produced by industrial technologies were rival—that is, could only be of use to one person at one time—each person’s use of such a good diminished the supply available to the rest of society. Thus it made sense from the viewpoint of efficient distribution to require that users pay a price—diminish their ability to acquire and use other resources—for commodities. And those prices paid then gave producing organizations the resources to carry on and expand their activities. Because the goods produced were excludable–that is, it was by-and-large straightforward to limit control over use to those authorized–it was easy and straightforward to push decision-making outward from the clueless bureaucratic center to the periphery where people on the ground might actually have a good sense of the situation, and of what should be done.

These three advantages—earmarking additional resources for successful and efficient production organizations, providing users with incentives for economically-efficient distribution, and decentralization of decision-making to where the knowledge was likely to be—were delivered by accident by the trade-and-market economic structure of Adam Smith.

But now as we try to realize the technological promise of information technologies, the old forms of economic organization no longer have a natural fit with the requirements of technological development and economic growth. Once an “information good” has been produced, sharing it with another person doesn’t reduce the rest of society’s resources and opportunities. So there is no efficient-distribution reason to charge a price for it.

But where then does the flow of signals to assess which production organizations are efficient come from?

In an earlier age we would be more inclined to rely on government funding, but these days we have a keen awareness of the advantages in applied development at least of semi-Darwinian competitive mechanisms, where investigators are responsible to investors seeking profits and not to committees seeking whatever committees seek.

Moreover, it is only with difficulty that information goods are excludable. But if their use can’t be restricted to authorized users, then the entire market-as-a-social-calculating-and-signalling mechanism simply breaks down. Unfortunately, attempts to make information goods “excludable” by various forms of use protection waste valuable time and energy: I shudder at the memory of having spent two hours on hold during three phone calls, and having spent another two hours of my time rebooting and reading installation error messages the last time I tried to upgrade one of the Adobe programs—GoLive—on this laptop. I doubt I’ll ever be able to face the prospect of buying another Adobe program again.

Two things, however, are clear. First, caught between “government failures” in applied research and the ever-larger “market failures” that will be created as the characteristics of information-age goods clash with the requirements for market efficiency, intermediate forms of organization—like large publicly-funded research universities—need to play an even larger role in research and development in the future than they have in the past.

Projects like CITRIS promise the benefits of government research—the wide distribution of knowledge and the acceleration of cumulative research—and the benefits of private entrepreneurship—the willingness to take risks and investigate large numbers of potential development projects rather than just those that have won the stamp of approval of a single central committee.

It is the task of chancellors and deans, of course, to make sure that projects like CITRIS don’t wind up producing the drawbacks of both forms of organization: the strangulation by bureaucratic red-tape and committee infighting of government, combined with the restrictions on the distribution of information and the use of products that make a large share of private-sector development work duplicative of what has already been done.

Second, realizing the promise of the Societal-Scale Information Systems that are the Holy Grails of this quest will turn out to be a problem of social engineering as well as computer science. I have long wondered just why it was that the first half of the 1980s were the era of the IBM PC rather than of the DEC VAX—when the hardware cost of a VAX was, as best as I can guess, no more than 1/5 that of the equivalent number of 8086 machines, and when thanks largely to Berkeley UNIX there was no comparison at all in software. The answer lies somewhere in social engineering—that somehow paying out five times as much for inferior software was worth not having to wrestle with established MIS bureaucracies. But what the answer is I am not sure.

So let me turn this into a sales pitch for the social scientists at Berkeley interested in information technology—from Manuel Castells in sociology to Pam Samuelson and Mark Lemley at the law school to John Zysman and Steve Weber in political science to Hal Varian and his simians to Suzanne Scotchmer at public policy to the industrial organization and antitrust barons of the business school and the economics department—Glenn Woroch, Rich Gilbert, Dan Rubinfeld, Mike Katz, Carl Shapiro—and a host of others. I do not know of a place with a more vibrant and smarter community of scholars interested in the social engineering aspects of information technology.

And I do not know of a better place than this to assemble the resources to build the Societal-Scale Information Systems that can make information technologies realize their promise.

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Dealing with Global Warming Over the Next Fifty Years

Is this going to be the dominant narrative thread of pretty much every history of 2025-2075 that will ever be written?…

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Back on September 4, 2014 I put a 9 ½ year email-delay message-to-myself tickler in the system. It came due several weeks ago.

It was provoked by my reading my Wall Street Journal back on September 4, 2014:

Matt Ridley: Whatever Happened to Global Warming?: ‘Now come climate scientists’ implausible explanations for why the ‘hiatus’ has passed the 15-year mark…. The climate-research establishment has finally admitted openly what skeptic scientists have been saying for nearly a decade: Global warming has stopped since shortly before this century began.The climate-research establishment has finally admitted openly what skeptic scientists have been saying for nearly a decade: Global warming has stopped since shortly before this century began…. In their quest to explain the pause, scientists have made the future sound even less alarming than before. Let’s hope that the United Nations admits as much on day one of its coming jamboree and asks the delegates to pack up, go home… <https://www.wsj.com/articles/matt-ridley-whatever-happened-to-global-warming-1409872855>

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That was a prominent call at the time. I had been keeping a tickler file, and it reminds me of, half a decade earlier, reading Steve Levitt and Steve Dubner’s Superfreakonomics. In it I was told:

Steve Levitt & Steve Dubner: Superfreakonomics: ‘There’s this little-discussed fact about global warming: while the drumbeat of doom has grown louder over the past several years, the average global temperature during that time has in fact decreased… <https://archive.org/details/superfreakonomic0000dubn/mode/1up>

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as well as that:

Steve Levitt & Steve Dubner: Superfreakonomics: ‘The problem with solar cells is that they are black… designed to absorb light from the sun…. But only about 12 percent gets turned into electricity, and the rest… contributes to global warming… <https://archive.org/details/superfreakonomic0000dubn/mode/1up>

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and:

Steve Levitt & Steve Dubner: Superfreakonomics: ‘The energy consumed by building the thousands of new solar plants necessary to replace coal-burning and other power plants would create a huge long-term “warming debt”…<https://archive.org/details/superfreakonomic0000dubn/mode/1up>

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The champion comment I saw on Levitt and Dubner came in a personal email:

ChunkyReeseWitherspoonLookAlike: ‘I’m a little offended by the book’s laziness. Had they wanted, they could’ve recruited some clever deniers to feed them material for the climate chapter. People like Chris Horner and Anthony Watts and Roger Pielke are dishonest and wrong, but they’re not stupid or ignorant people—they engage in some high-level sophistry and deceit. But Dubner and Levitt didn’t even know enough about the subject to seek out the A-list bullshit artists…

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I believe that Roger Pielke (Sr.) still maintains that global warming to date is primarily due to “natural variation of atmospheric and ocean circulation features within the climate system [which] produces global average heat changes that…IPCC models have failed to adequately simulate…”

I last encountered the work of Roger Pielke (Jr.) in 2014, and I was really not impressed at all <https://web.archive.org/web/20140402164614/http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/03/28/2417/the-launch-of-fivethirtyeight-com-and-climate-change-disaster-weblogging-trying-to-be-the-honest-broker-for-the-week-of-march-29-2014>—he lacked knowledge of the generating processes underlying or of the shape of the data he was using, and had no control over his models.

Christopher Horner no longer pretends that global warming is not happening, but still shrills “as always, the question will be how much lasting harm the EPA can inflict before the courts act to stop it…”

Anthony Watts is still—on March 24, 2024—publishing and boosting things trying to persuade his readers that global warming is not happening at all: “unusual cold plagues both northern, southern hemispheres….arctic sea ice strengthens…”

And as for Matt Ridley? He no longer appears to dare to say that global warming is not happening.

He is, however, out there claiming “the public isn’t being told the full truth about the climate threat…” and “if I waved a magic wand and gave the world unlimited clean and cheap energy tomorrow, I expect many climate scientists would be horrified…”

He does spend his time ranting about how the 2023 Armistice Day “ceremony at the Cenotaph [in London] might be marred by violent protests from pro-Hamas demonstrators…” (Spoiler: it wasn’t. It was the right-wing counter-protesters who clashed with police.)

And he does say: “Yes, heatwaves are getting more intense thanks to global warming, but the alarmism is shameless…”

Shameless…

To my knowledge, neither Matt Ridley, nor Steve Dubner, nor Steve Levitt, nor Roger Pielke, Sr., not Roger Pielke, Jr., nor Chris Horner, nor Anthony Watts, nor any of the others who did a great deal of data misrepresentation in their day has given all they have to the poor and taken up a life of anonymous service to others.

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From a reputational-bet perspective, there could not have been a worse time to die on the hill that global warming is not happening than the September 2014 moment that Matt Ridley chose. In the data record, strong El Niños in 1991-1992, 1997-1998, 2025-2016, and 2023 boost global average temperatures substantially above their trend. In their aftermath you can draw a trendline with a low or a negative slope—for a while, and as long as you start your trend at the El Niño peak. And when Ridley wrote in September 2014, meteorologists had already for six months been raising their forecasts of the likelihood of a 2015 El Niño.

NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index

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And—in large part because of a long four-decade campaign of trying to cast fake doubt on the existence of global warming—we are where we are, and even the High Establishment Financial Times Editorial Board is alarmed:

Financial Times Editorial Board: The world is warming faster than scientists expected: ‘Fossil fuel groups and investors cannot afford to ignore the warnings…. Last week… Saudi Aramco [head]… Amin Nasser said the world needed instead to invest in fossil fuels to meet demand at a time when the clean energy transition was “visibly failing on most fronts”…. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Climate records had been not just broken but smashed in 2023, the hottest year on record. More than 90 per cent of the world’s oceans suffered heatwave conditions, glaciers lost the most ice on record and the extent of Antarctic sea ice fell to by far the lowest levels ever measured…. To an extent not widely appreciated, the world is now warming at a pace that scientists did not expect and, alarmingly, do not fully understand….

Gavin Schmidt… warned that the data could imply that a warming planet was already “fundamentally altering how the climate system operates”. The surprising heat in 2023 had “come out of the blue”, he said, and revealed that “an unprecedented knowledge gap” had opened up…. We have a shakier grasp of what lies ahead — which is worrying when it comes to forecasting drought and rainfall patterns that are already aggravating food shortages….

Schmidt’s position at Nasa was once held by… James Hansen, whose 1988 testimony to the US Congress alerted the world that global warming had begun.  The world did not entirely ignore Hansen’s warnings… but nor did it take them anywhere near seriously enough. Oil company bosses may prefer to preach a message of business as usual. But neither they nor anyone else can afford once again to downplay what science is showing us about a climate threat that is now moving into uncharted territory… <https://www.ft.com/content/6f858196-0a9c-4f0f-9720-a0a81849a998>

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How expensive will the costs of changing our energy system so that in fifty years global warming will stop be? And how expensive will dealing with the losses as global warming eliminates some and degrades the value of many of the economic niches humanity inhabits? After paying those costs, will there be anything left over from the technological dividend that humanity expects over the next two generations from our R&D labs? Or will the history of 2025-2075 be the first period since the one starting in the late 100s with the fall of the Antonine Dynasty in the Mediterranean and the Han Dynasty in the Central Country in which humanity as a whole becomes noticeably poorer?

And given the pace of Schumpeterian creative-destruction we have experienced since 1870, we have only managed to hold things together when we have managed to hold things together because we have had a large positive technological dividend to distribute.

Stay tuned!

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References:

DRAFT: Time to Start Thinking About What to Teach in the Fall!

I need a new framework for & I have a new title for Econ 135: “‘The Enlargement of the Human Empire, to the Effecting of All Things Possible’: A History of Economic Growth”; the quote is from Francis Bacon’s “New Atlantis”…

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Econ 135: Fall 2024

‘The Enlargement of the Human Empire, to the Effecting of All Things Possible’: A History of Economic Growth

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Proposed Course Themes:

  • How a bunch of jumped-up monkeys more-or-less accidentally became an anthology intelligence, and then hunted frantically for institutions to make that work…

  • Along the way, we fell into a Malthusian Trap, in which we turned aside from societies-of-cooperation to societies-of-domination…

  • Then we developed the institutions of Modern Economic Growth, which made us rich at a dizzying rate by doubling every generation our technological capabilities to manipulate nature and coöperatively organize ourselves…

  • But what exactly those institutions of Modern Economic Growth truly are is a complex, cloudy, and disputable thing…

  • As are the details as to how to rewrite the cultural-social-political-organizational software code of society to run on the underlying rapidly changing forces-of-production hardware…

  • And, unfortunately, that Modern Economic Growth rate of technological progress and corresponding speed of structural economic transition were much too fast for any societa; process of gradient-descent institutional evolution to cope without repeated disastrous crashes…

  • Now we face the truly big problem: that of building institutions for managing us, as an anthology intelligence and a society, that will actually enable us to live wisely and well…

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Proposed Course Readings:

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PRELIMINARY: Course Schedule & Topics:

2024-08-28 We 10:00 PDT: Introduction: “The Enlargement of the Human Empire, to the Effecting of All Things Possible”

====

I: Long Prehistory, -3,000,000 to -3000—how humans evolved and adapted to different environments, how they developed tools and technologies, how they organized themselves into bands and tribes, how they traded and exchanged; prestige, reciprocity, redistribution, dominance

  • 2024-08-30 Fr 10:00 PDT: Before History: Anthology Intelligence: Reciprocity, Redistribution, & Prestige…

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BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-23 Sa

That the post-FTX bankruptcy team has managed to recover a lot of the value Sam Bankman-Fried stole does not mean he didn’t steal it; American commercial real estate sword-of-Damocles blogging; the BEAST that is the Nvidia DGX GB200; Nvidia tries to become like Apple; Jacob Levy on academic freedom vs. free speech; Joanna Stern & Mira Mirati on OpenAI’s Sora video generator; global warming & cherry blossoms; very briefly noted; & NOTES: On Mid-21st Century Undergraduate Education, & Virgil’s Prophecy of Jupiter: “Imperium sine Fine Dedi”, READING: Brief Selections from John Maynard Keynes (1919): “The Economic Consequences of the Peace”, PODCAST: Hexapodia LVIII: Acemoglu & Johnson Should Have Written About Technologies as Labor-Complementing or Labor-Substituting, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-18 Mo…

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SubStack NOTES:

CryptoGrifters: An important point that Sam Bankman-Fried, the Stanford Law School mafia, Michael Lewis, & others are trying to bury in noise:

John Ray: ‘Vast sums of money were stolen by Mr. Bankman-Fried, and he was rightly convicted by a jury of his peers. That things that he stole, things he converted into other things, whether they were investments in Bahamas real estate, cryptocurrencies or speculative ventures, were successfully recovered through the enormous efforts of a dedicated group of professionals (a group unfairly maligned by Mr. Bankman-Fried and his supporters) does not mean that things were not stolen. What it means is that we got some of them back. And there are plenty of things we did not get back, like the bribes to Chinese officials or the hundreds of millions of dollars he spent to buy access to or time with celebrities or politicians or investments for which he grossly overpaid having done zero diligence. The harm was vast. The remorse is nonexistent… <https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/03/ftx-chief-lays-out-all-the-ways-sbf-sucks-in-detailed-court-filing/>

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Economics: As long as there are not leveraged chains of interlinked borrowing, individual acts of “pretend and extend” have little if any implications for anyone other than the borrower, the lender, and the immediate owners and creditors of the lender. The rest of the business of financing and building can continue with deals struck with only an occasional side-eye and shudder glance at postponed workouts. Yes, regulators and investors need to watch those doing the rollovers like hawks. But as long as that process is underway, there is little reason to make accelerating workouts a big priority. But is that process underway?;

Gillian Tett: It’s time to be honest about America’s commercial real estate hangover: ‘“pretend and extend”… need[s] to end…. What is striking is… how little pain has been crystallised so far…. Lenders are rolling over bad loans…. The overall banking system is fairly well capitalised…. The Fed has scrambled to create systems to contain contagion.… The problem is that as long as these “pretend and extend” tactics are playing out, uncertainty will haunt the property sector, threatening to undermine American growth… <ft.com/content/12e0c608-25c2-41b3-829a-…>

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MAMLM: The beast weighs 3000 lbs. 150 x 20 = 3000 chips. A total of perhaps 600 trillion transistors. At normal chip prices-per-transistor these days, that would be under $1,000,000. Apple and Wal-Mart, after all, are now selling a full M1 16-billion transistor laptop for $699. But people who might know are saying “low eight figures” or “custom quote”. Maybe the anomaly—given demand—is not that NVIDIA’s current margins are so high but that they are so low, that it is not trying to squeeze all the juice but is instead doing favors in the hopes of gaining goodwill that will be useful in the future:

Charlie Stross: ‘The Nvidia DGX GB200 server of 2024 consumes 120kW of power, about the same as the Cray-1 supercomputer of 1975. The Cray-1 cost $7.9M and ran at 160 MFLOPS. The GB200 runs at 1.44 exaFLOPS, or roughly ten billion times the power. But you can network 8 of these racks together, and AWS is building Project Ceiba around 20,736 of the CPUs (there are 72 CPUs per DGX server rack). 10 billion times more performance per watt, in 49 years… <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cray-1> <https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/21/nvidia_dgx_gb200_nvk72/> <https://mastodon.social/@cstross@wandering.shop/112135574940467336>

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MAMLM: Nvidia is now trying to become Apple – roar up and down the stack in the hope of creating enough integration the sheer fact of that integration and the benefits from it will prevent it from being sliced to death as each thing is that it does gets commoditized:

Richard Waters: ‘NVIDIA’s “full-stack” approach… processors… interconnects… central processing units… to manage the process… software… programming models and libraries of code… Cuda…. The more tools that Nvidia and its partners create to take its technology deeper into individual industries—something currently happening at lightning speed—the more invested they will be in its underlying chip architecture…. Pre-trained AI models… calls NIMs… “co-pilots”… integrated into IT processes…. All of this has had Wall Street analysts salivating about which Big Tech markets Nvidia will turn to next…. For now, focusing the entire computing stack on satisfying the red-hot demand for AI chips makes sense. For would-be chip rivals, this week’s event was a daunting reminder of the speed at which Nvidia is moving and the sheer range of complementary technologies it is building… <ft.com/content/81f7a8e6-1738-4339-a893-…>

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Public Reason: The problem with a university’s balancing near-total freedom of “extramural speech” on one hand with freedom of scholarly inquiry on the second hand and with protection of the rights of all members of the university to feel welcome and valued inside the institution on the third is this: quite often one of the major purposes of the “extramural speech” or of the “scholarly inquiry” is to make some members of the university community feel profoundly unwelcome. Does anybody believe that Harvey C. Mansfield blamed grade inflation at Harvard on the admission of African-Americans who, he said, could not keep up because he knew anything about the issue, or because he wanted to make African-Americans feel unwelcome. Does anybody believe that the fact that Charles Murray burned a KKK cross to terrorize his Indiana neighbors was not a plus for those at Stanford who invited him for purposes of “scholarly inquiry”? Just as the attempt to draw bright lines is futile in internet moderation, so the search for principled bright-line boundaries is futile here. But that is why university administrators are paid the relatively big bucks—to be sensitive to context and nuance, and to think about how to balance all three of these off against one another:

Jacob T. Levy: Campus culture wars are a teachable moment in how freedom of speech and academic freedom differ: ‘The principles governing university life are… strange… counterintuitive… complicated to defend… tempting to abandon… educators haven’t put in the work….

Undergraduate activists on any issue are often prone to immoderation…. Universities offer very robust protection for political and protest speech… as an incidental byproduct… [of] academic freedom… to follow arguments and evidence where they lead, according to scholarly methods… to teach, within the confines of the scholarly mission of the class… limited by the freedom of students to be secure that they will be assessed fairly…. The front of the classroom isn’t a pulpit or a political platform.

But within those constraints, professors have substantial freedom… to teach… [plus] freedom from evaluation on non-academic grounds…. An economist couldn’t be fired for being an atheist, a mathematician for being a socialist…. The technical phrase here is freedom of extramural speech…. Protections of extramural speech are very strong… to protect the academic integrity of what goes on inside….

[That is] very strong protection for the freedom of protest, not because protest is important to a university the way it is to a democratic society, but because it’s academically irrelevant. It’s wrong to question a student’s (or professor’s) standing in the academic community because of what they say at a protest…. The only appropriate limits are not about the content of what’s said, but about the conduct of the protest action….

When faced with demands to denounce Hamas, or student activists who endorsed Palestinian armed resistance, or Israel, or Zionist speech on campus, or whatever, universities often fell back on the rule of institutional neutrality. But critics found it hard to take that rule seriously…. The rule that the university shouldn’t take any interest in the rhetoric that’s used in a protest or on social media was harder to take seriously in an era of hate-speech rules, restrictions on exclusionary speech… a discourse around “safety” that treated hostile language as violence… by critics who noted that denouncing bad things and restricting hateful or unsafe speech seemed to be very much part of the institutional tool kit these days. These were problems of universities’ own making….

Jewish and pro-Israel members of university communities… have seen universities themselves shift away from the principles of academic freedom, freedom of nonacademic speech, and institutional neutrality, often in the name of protecting vulnerable populations, and, in the wake of the murders of Oct. 7, asked whether Israeli Jews are somehow outside the category of the vulnerable…

The best time to have started to do the right thing was yesterday, but the second-best time is today. University leadership… can recommit to academic freedom, freedom of extramural speech, and institutional neutrality, starting now… <theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-cam…>

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ONE VIDEO: Joanna Stern & Mira Mirati: OpenAI’s Sora:

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ONE IMAGE: Global Warming:

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Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Economics: Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, & Robert Vishny (2014); Finance & the Preservation of Wealth: ‘A Solow-style neoclassical growth model with diminishing returns to capital. Savers rely on trusted intermediaries to manage their… claims on capital stock…. [Intermediaries] can charge fees above costs to trusting investors…. The ratio of financial income to GDP increases with the ratio of aggregate wealth to GDP…. Further implications… for management fees, unit costs of finance, and the consequences of shocks to trust and to the capital stock…. Some see the growth of finance as an indication of problems with the market economy and the financial system. Without denying the importance of rent-seeking, agency, and other problems, our article presents a more benign view. Finance should grow as an economy matures, because the preservation of wealth is an increasingly important function of the financial system… <https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/shleifer/files/the_quarterly_journal_of_economics-2014-gennaioli-1221-54.pdf>

  2. Preston Mui: How we could return to the productivity growth of the 1990s: ‘The immediate macroeconomic environment plays a significant role in producing higher productivity growth…. The late 1990s were also a uniquely good time for the US macroeconomy…. Alan Blinder and Janet Yellen termed the 1990s the “Fabulous Decade”… full employment, a boom in fixed investment, and a stable supply-side…. Why was there such a boom in fixed investment in the 1990s?… Three stars aligned… strong aggregate demand… the federal government played a critical role in coordinating research and development in semiconductors under a “science policy” model…. Financial conditions were relatively looser…. In the 1990s, the US economy was able to avoid the inflationary shocks and cost growth in essentials that upset other recoveries…. Could we recapture the spirit of the 1990s, today?… Building a stable and secure supply side looks like it may require the most work…. Hope is not a strategy for ensuring supply side abundance…. Public policy may not be able to simply will technological improvements into existence, determine whether AI is actually going to be useful, or meaningfully affect the demographic trajectory of an aging population. What policy can do is ensure that the macroeconomic backdrop is supportive of investments in technological improvements and that the broader economy is in a position to translate those improvements into economic activity…

    Noahpinion
    How we could return to the productivity growth of the 1990s
    As readers of this blog know, I think productivity growth is extremely important, and I’m…
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  3. Dan Davies: : ‘Although the peaks of intellectual achievement in economics are high, the base line of knowledge is often surprisingly low, and this isn’t recognised in practice…. You all too often come across people who don’t have a sufficient baseline of knowledge outside their specialty, but who either aren’t aware of this or don’t see it as a reason not to give advice…. They know that their own speciality is complicated, fragile and beset by special cases, but their perception of all the rest of economics is that it’s pretty easy stuff which can be figured out from first principles in a coffee break with a few simple axioms…. If you can find…, a professional economist with direct research experience, or past personal involvement with a policy issue… [they are] likely to understand it pretty well…. [Otherwise] you’re much better off listening to a generalist or newspaper commentator who will at least hopefully have glanced at the facts rather than trying to do it all on the back of an envelope…

    Dan Davies - “Back of Mind”
    the very lowest common denominator
    One of the reasons why arguing with “mainstream” economists is frustrating is that “mainstream” economics is so absolutely huge an intellectual endeavour that there is basically nothing you can say about it that’s going to be unqualifiedly true. So, you might think that “mainstream economics” ignores this or underestimates that or has logically inconsi…
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  4. Economic History: Mark Koyama: Reflections on Pox Romana: ‘Pox Romana is a great book… by ancient historian Collin Elliott… an important work of ancient history… that I recommend highly for both casual and scholarly readers…. The Roman empire had bloated “consumption” cities…. Interesting is Elliott’s analysis of the Roman response to the plague… ad hoc and shortsighted.  In response to poor harvests in Egypt, the Roman state repurposed ships that had previously supplied mines and quarries to move grain and “as a consequence, operations designed to extract and transport” others goods “may have declined, or even paused”.  Many mining sites were abandoned in the decades following the plague.  As state revenues collapsed, tax collection became more coercive prompting fiscal flight among peasant farmers.

    Elliott argues that “state intervention … burdened labor markets further”…

    How the World Became Rich
    Reflections on Pox Romana
    Welcome to my Substack and hopefully the first of many posts. The purpose of this Substack is to write up reflections on a variety of topics in economic history, including How the World Became Rich, my recent book with Jared Rubin. Expect book reviews and reflections on various topics I am teaching or writing about…
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  5. Johan Fourie: When historians ignore economics: ‘Humanities students fail to recognise the remarkable progress we’ve made, to the detriment of future generations…. For many years I gave a guest lecture to second-year History students at Stellenbosch. It usually followed the National Budget Speech by South Africa’s Minister of Finance. The purpose of the lecture was to distil the budget for humanities students enrolled in a course on the history of wealth and poverty, from ancient times to the present…. 80% of the world, I would tell them, lived on less than $2 a day in 1800, basically just above subsistence. Today that is 8%. (Also, today we are 8 billion people compared to the 1 billion back then.) That is a truly remarkable transformation…. What always surprised me was the profound sense of unease in the classroom. This unease was a consequence of a message that had been drilled into them by all their humanities lecturers: that the rich have become rich through expropriating land or labour, a belief that wealth was not the product of innovation and hard work but rather the result of exploiting resources and people…. In my brief class discussion of the causes of the Industrial Revolution and the technological innovations that followed, students could only note the exploitation of the English workers or the exploitation of those in the British colonial empire…. They know little about the remarkable increase in worker wages… scientific discoveries and associated technologies like the Haber-Bosch process that now provide nutrition for more than three billion people, or the creation of penicillin, saving millions of lives, or the transistor that connects me to the world (and to you).… To avoid this one-sided view of history, History departments would do well to incorporate more economic history texts that acknowledge both the triumphs and trials of the past into their curriculums. Yet, given the resistance to these ideas within the humanities, I don’t expect this to happen soon. I’ve not been invited back to give the guest budget speech lecture for the last two years…

    Our Long Walk
    When historians ignore economics
    This is a free post from Our Long Walk, my blog about the economic past, present, and future of South Africa. If you enjoy it and want to support more of my writing, please consider a paid subscripti…
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  6. Cognition: Kevin Dickinson: Why memory is more about your future than your past: ‘Memories aren’t mental recordings, but pliable information we can use to better manage the present and conjure future possibilities…. [Charan Ranganath:] “If the goal was to store everything in some mental vault, then from that perspective, memory is faulty. But if the goal is to use the past in meaningful ways, combine different experiences creatively, or consider new possibilities, then our memory is doing exactly what it should be. For instance, the brain is optimized to process information quickly and then generate a prediction about what’s going to happen next. The value of that predictive processing is not only that it’s fast; it also optimizes the information you get. Even when our predictions are wrong, that orients us to where the new, important information is… <https://bigthink.com/the-learning-curve/why-memory-is-more-about-your-future/>

  7. CryptoGrifts: Joe Weisenthal: What Joe’s interested in this morning: ‘A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that this crypto bull market was different, because there’s (blissfully) almost no talk about the underlying tech. Nobody’s talking about “Web3” of “world computers” or anything like that. The theme is entirely flows based. The approval of the ETFs widens the lanes for institutional money to flow into Bitcoin, and so everyone just wants to frontrun the next person, who will be trying to frontrun the person after that…. Once you establish that the entire thing is about flows and frontrunning, then there’s no reason to just stick with Bitcoin. And there’s no reason to go with coins that have any pretense of soundness or sustainability.

    And so we’ve seen the mother of all memecoin bull markets emerge…. One thing that’s interesting though is that people are going for low-cost chains, like Solana, at the expense of more decentralized, older chains such as Ethereum…. Crypto in its most honest form. No talk of use case. No talk of decentralization. No talk of network security or anything like that. Just low-cost gambling… <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-19/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day-americas?cmpid=BBD031924_MKT>

  8. Human Capital: K.C. Raybould: It’s Not About Humanities Vs STEM, It’s About Systematic Thinking: ‘Tech bros… see themselves as philosopher kings —and… read and study history and philosophy and find in those humanities justification for not letting woman vote and for denigrating democracy and valorizing Spartans (despite the Spartans being among history’s greatest losers). “The central message of Buddhism is not “Every man for himself.” And the London Underground is not a political movement. Those are all mistakes, Otto. I looked them up.” and all that. Conversely, anti-vax, COVID denial, and the credulous press OpenAI and before that crypto huskers receive is a function of people not understanding the science and technology well enough to sniff out potential nonsense. The fact that the CTO of OpenAI could not handle a question as simple as “did you scrape YouTube videos for your training data” shows just how inadequate the questioning of these people has been up until now, and thus, just how inadequate the scientific education most of our journalists have received and absorbed actually is…

    Metaphors Are Lies
    It’s Not About Humanities Vs STEM, It’s About Systematic Thinking
    A new paper showing that teaching kids how to think about the larger ideas in social questions makes them more intelligent and happier over time is making the social media rounds. And with good reason — it is a good reminder of the importance of teaching kids, all people really, how to look at systems in the world. But I am also seeing it used as anot…
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  9. Science: Abraham Pais (1979): Einstein & the Quantum Theory: ‘This is an account of Einstein’s work and thoughts on the quantum theory. The following topics will be discussed: The light-quantum hypothesis and its gradual evolution into the photon concept. Early history of the photoelectric effect. The theoretical and experimental reasons why the resistance to the photon was stronger and more protracted than for any other particle proposed to date. Einstein’s position regarding the Bohr—Kramers —Slater suggestion, the last bastion of resistance to the photon. Einstein’s analysis of fluctuations around thermal equilibrium and his proposal of a duality between particles and waves, in 1909 for electromagnetic radiation {the first time this duality was ever stated) and in January 1925 for matter (prior to quantum mechanics and for reasons independent of those given earlier by de Broglie). His demonstration that long-known specific heat anomalies are quantum effects. His role in the evolution of the third law of thermodynamics. His new derivation of Planck’s law in 1917 which also marks the beginning of his concern with the failure of classical causality. His role as one of the founders of quantum statistics and his discovery of the first example of a phase transition derived by using purely statistical methods. His position as a critic of quantum mechanics. Initial doubts on the consistency of quantum mechanics (1926—1930). His view maintained from 1930 until the end of his life: quantum mechanics is logically consistent and quite successful but it is incomplete. His attitude toward success. His criterion of objective reality. Differences in the roles relativity and quantum theory played in Einstein s life. His vision regarding quantum theory in the context of a unified field theory. His ast autobiographical sketch, written a few months before his death, concluding with a statement about the quantum theory, a subject to which {by his own account) he had given more thought than even to general relativity… <https://batistalab.com/classes/vvv/RevModPhys.51.863.pdf>

  10. Science Fiction: T. Kingfisher: Paladin’s Grace: ‘In the orphanage she had been raised in, hardly anyone worried much about their mother and father. Everyone’s goal was to get an apprenticeship to a kind master, and a field, where they would be wealthy and respected and eat three meat meals a week… <https://argyllproductions.com/our-authors/ursula-vernon/>

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NOTES: On Mid-21st Century Undergraduate Education, & Virgil's Prophecy of Jupiter: "Imperium sine Fine Dedi"

How universal are the human values of freedom & rights, anyway? & can or should there be universal human values? & how do we even begin to think about how we should think about such questions, & about the downstream question of what kind of human society (or societies) we should be trying to build? No, I do not have conclusions. But I do have notes—I seem to have more than 20,000 notes circling around this topic…

One of the very nice things about being at a university is that one does occasionally wind up sitting outside in the warm afternoon spring sun, drinking espresso drinks, and quoting the line from Virgilis Maro’s Æneid of the Prophecy of Jupiter to each other: “Imperium sine fine dedi…”—For these (Romans) I (Jupiter is speaking) set no limits, world or time/But make the gift of empire without end…

Iuppiter: At puer Ascanius, cui nunc cognomen Iulo
Additur,—Ilus erat, dum res stetit Ilia regno,—
Triginta magnos volvendis mensibus orbis
Imperio explebit, regnumque ab sede Lavini
Transferet, et longam multa vi muniet Albam.
Hic iam ter centum totos regnabitur annos
Gente sub Hectorea, donec regina sacerdos,
Marte gravis, geminam partu dabit Ilia prolem.
Inde lupae fulvo nutricis tegmine laetus
Romulus excipiet gentem, et Mavortia condet
Moenia, Romanosque suo de nomine dicet.
His ego nec metas rerum nec tempora pono;
Imperium sine fine dedi…

Jupiter: Ascanius, to whom the name of Iulus
Now is added—Ilus while Ilium stood— Will hold the power for all of thirty years, Great rings of wheeling months. He will transfer His capital from Lavinium and make A fortress, Alba Longa. Three full centuries That kingdom will be ruled by Hector’s race, Until the queen and priestess, Ilia,
Pregnant by Mars, will bear twin sons to him. Afterward, happy in the tawny pelt
His nurse, the she-wolf, wears, young Romulus Will take the leadership, build walls of Mars, And call by his own name his people Romans. For these I set no limits, world or time, But make the gift of empire without end…

The point at issue was that Virgilius Maro and those who propagated his book really did create—among Roman society’s literate élite, or at least among a particular but intellectual subsection of that élite—a strong element of collective consciousness that had powerful and real results in influencing human action: the belief that Rome was (or ought to be) universal empire, not one of several roughly equivalent human civilizations, but the only real game in town—much like the attitude of Yankees fans toward the Red Sox, which in their estimation is not a real baseball team.

This Roman imperial élite attitude stood in contrast to the more usual view of literate élites in the western tip of Eurasia over the past 2000 years.

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