Is America Today Really No More Unequal Economic Class-Wise than It Was in 1960?

America is much more unequal, class-wise! (Race-wise & gender-wise it is less unequal; but other-sociological-wise—i.e., life-expectancy—it looks much more unequal; summing the sociology factors is beyond my competence…

Get 50% off for 1 year

Share


As I understand things, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman (PSZ) have corrected some errors they made in calculating the top 1% after-tax-and-transfer income share that were pointed out by Gerald Auten and David Splinter (and others).

PSZ now think the top 1% post-fisc share has risen from 9%→15% over 1960→2019.

But Auten and Splinter are not satisfied, and claim the post-tax-and-transfer income share rose only from 8%→9%.

Now come Gale, Sabelhaus, and Thorpe (GST) to keep score. And I am here to score their score…

My conclusion: The numbers to keep in your head for the top 1% are: 9%→14.2%.

But—and all this is really important!—there is a bunch of uncertainty about levels and differences and about the difference between post-fisc income and what we would really like to measure that either substantially attenuates or substantially amplifies that rise in inequality. And I would bet on “amplifies”, but not with a great deal of confidence. And I would say that the sociology of inequality changes in America since 1960 is probably at least as important as the money flows, and that I get confused about it whenever I try to think about it.

Read more

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-29 Sa

Journamalistic grifting machines; Greg Clark vs. institutionalist theories of economic history; plutocrats in 1982 and now; Nvidia, Apple, & TSMC Deep Magic; Cicero made a very unwise joke about Cæsar Octavianus; very briefly noted; the last intellectual crypto bandwagoneer; & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-26 Tu…

Get 50% off for 1 year


ONE IMAGE: Journamalistic Grifting Machines:

A reminder that journamalists like Carl Cannon who make preserving partisan “balance” their job number one, and proudly prioritize “nonpartisan news aggregation and serious investigative journalism” wind up as moderately well-paid shills for grifters cheating their audience. And Carl Cannon is OK with that:

Share


ONE VIDEO: Against “Institutionalist” Explanations of Modern Economic Growth:

Greg Clark in 2009 explains how England in 1300 had:

  • low incentive-impairing social spending,

  • low public debt,

  • low taxes,

  • low inflation,

  • social mobility (albeit predominantly downward in relative terms, as was true in general in the Agrarian-Age world),

  • (a substantial degree of) personal security (murder rate of 1/5000, compared to 1/20000 in the contemporary United States, and

  • government-provided security of property.

How about markets? Goods markets were effectively free for things except land, constrained by feudal and inheritance claims; but real estate is constrained by “planning” in the modern world. Capital markets existed—but in Mediæval Europe were constrained by usury laws. Labor markets were constrained by feudal and guild ties—to some degree. Robust legal intellectual-property protections are the only things missing:

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality


SubStack NOTES:

Plutocracy: Of the techies, the most prominent on the Forbes 400 list in 1982 were David Packard (8) and William Hewlett (18). The top person on the then-list who would have been recognizable from 50 years earlier was David Rockefeller (5). His counterpart today is Warren Buffett (7 today), who was number 92 on the 1982 list. Richer than Buffett today we have Gates, Zuckerberg, Ellison, Bezos—and Arnault (LVMH) from fashion, and Musk from… I am not sure, he used to be tech-finance (PayPal), but since his companies have not yet made any serious money at all. (Below Buffett come, now, Page, Brin, Ballmer, and then tech dominance ceases):

Eric Rosen: The Changing Landscape of Billionaires since 1982: ‘In 1982, there were only 13 billionaires on the [Forbes 400] list and a net worth of $75mm secured a spot. The richest person in the US, was Daniel Keith Ludwig (shipping and R/E) and had a net worth of $2bn in 1982 or $6.2bn adjusted for inflation…. Steve Jobs, then just 27, described in his bio as a “computer freak” worth upwards of $100 million [$310 million adjusted for inflation]…. The list from 1982 had 22.8% from oil, 15.2% from manufacturing, 9% finance and only 3% from technology…  

The Rosen Report
The Changing Landscape Of the Forbes Billionaires List Since 1982
Opening Comments The last note was on Bitcoin ATMs and the most opened links were the TSLA Gen2 Robot and the IBM CEOs illegal hiring practices…
Read more

Leave a comment


Deep Magic: The 72-core (16 CPU, 40 GPU, 16 NPU) Apple M3Max chip is perhaps 720 mm^2, contains 92 billion transistors, and is made on TSMC’s 3 nm N3B process. The 132-SM Nvidia H100 chip is 814 mm^2, contains 80 billion transistors, and is made on TSMC’s slightly less demanding 4 nm N4 process. Apple charges laptop buyers about $1500 for the M3Max—but that includes something like a 200% markup over manufacturing, so figure that the manufacturing variable cost of an M3Max is $500. And as a chip more complex in its architecture, larger in its transistor count, and made on a more demanding process, TSMC ought to be charging more for a marginal M3Max than for a marginal H100. That the manufacturing cost of a marginal H100 is 1% of its current market cost is really not sustainable—and it makes me wonder who the people are who have money to burn but not programmer expertise to shift model-training off to a slower but much cheaper chip. I mean, in the end quantity has a quality all its own. And things do not have to use CUDA libraries:

Austin Carr: Nvidia’s AI Chip Stands Out as Tech’s Hottest Product: ‘Nvidia Corp.’s H100 artificial intelligence accelerator…. With its 80 billion transistors, the H100 is the go-to workhorse for training… large language models…. A single H100 now lists for $57,000 on hardware vendor CDW’s online shop—and data centers are filled with thousands of them. When Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang delivered the company’s first AI server with an older generation of graphic processing units to OpenAI in 2016, few could’ve predicted the role these kinds of chips would play…. Nvidia’s graphics cards were then synonymous with video games, not machine learning…  <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-12-29/nvidia-s-ai-chip-stands-out-as-tech-s-hottest-product>

Refer a friend


History: The Latin “Tollendum” equals: should be extolled… or lifted up… or lifted out… or removed. How a word can maintain that amount of meaning-tension is not something I understand.

Cicero tried to use Octavian, and wund up dead. Perhaps it was because he could not resist being a little too witty. I do not know where this tradition originated, but here is Cæsar Octavianus after the battle of Mutina in April -43, as reported by C. Velleius Patroculus in his “Compendium of Roman History” Book II, ch. 62. “Laudandum and tollendum” are the last three words of the passage quoted below in Latin: “should be praised and should be [fill in the blank]”:

C. Velleius Patroculus: Compendium of Roman History: Before the defeat of Antony [at Mutina in April -43] the [Roman] senate, chiefly on the motion of Cicero [Octavianus] , passed all manner of resolutions complimentary to Caesar and his army. But, now that their fears had vanished, their real feelings broke through their disguise, and the Pompeian party once more took heart. By vote of the senate, Brutus and Cassius were now confirmed in possession of the provinces which they  had seized…. Decimus Brutus was voted a triumph, presumably because, thanks to another’s services, he had escaped with his life. Hirtius and Pansa were honoured with a public funeral.

Of Caesar [Octavianus] not a word was said. The senate even went so far as to instruct its envoys, who had been sent to Caesar [Octavianus]’s army, to confer with the soldiers alone, without the presence of their general. But the ingratitude of the senate was not shared by the army; for, though Caesar [Octavianus] himself pretended not to see the slight, the soldiers refused to listen to any orders without the presence of their commander.

It was at this time that Cicero, with his deep-seated attachment for the Pompeian party, expressed the opinion, which said one thing and meant another, to the effect that Caesar “should be commended and then—elevated…” <https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Velleius_Paterculus/2C*.html>

Give a gift subscription


Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Economics: Conference Board: Economy Watch: US View (December 2023): ‘It is more probable that the US economy will slip into a short and shallow recession in early 2024. Consumer spending… is beginning to cool. Moderating real income gains, falling savings and rising debt will likely further curb consumer spending heading into 2024…. As the economy cools in early 2024 so too will the labor market…. The path to 2% will be long and bumpy. We believe the Fed Funds Rate has peaked, but don’t foresee any cuts until mid-2024… <https://www.conference-board.org/research/economy-watch-US/Economy-Watch-December-2023-US>

  2. Kashik Basu: Poor-Country Debt Crisis Looms: ‘COVID-19… increase[d] public spending…. Low- and lower-middle-income economies borrowed massively…. That left dozens of countries in debt distress or at high risk of it…. Poorest countries… external debt service… projected to surge by 40% in 2023-24. Ghana and Zambia have already defaulted, Ethiopia will likely default by 2024…. Not enough is being written about this…. Urgent international intervention is necessary…

    <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/biggest-threats-to-2024-economic-outlook-by-kaushik-basu-2023-12>

  3. Swan, Trevor W.: 1956. “Economic Growth & Capital Accumulation.” Economic Record 32:2 (November): 334–361. <https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:32:y:1956:i:2:p:334-361>…

  4. Market Sentiment: The Problem with the Magnificent 7: ‘Only two companies (Exxon & GE) from the 1980s list made it to 2000. Even IBM had dropped out of the top 10 list…. Incredibly, as of 2023, the only companies not associated with tech in the top 10 list of the S&P 500 are JP Morgan Chase and Berkshire. Just 7 companies contribute 28% of the total market cap of the S&P 500…. Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft… virtual monopolies…. Only one company (Microsoft) from the 2000s and not even a single one from the 80s made it to the 2023 list…. If history is any guide, investing in the largest stocks is a surefire way to increase portfolio risk and underperform the market…

    Market Sentiment
    The Problem with the Magnificent 7
    Hi everyone, this will be our last deep dive for the year. Thank you so much for reading and supporting our work. Looking forward to a great 2024 :) A pin lies in wait for every bubble. And when the two eventually meet, a new wave of investors learns some very old lessons: First, many in Wall Street will sell investors anything they will buy. Second, speculation is most dangerous when it looks easiest. …
    Read more
  5. Robin Wigglesworth: Hedge fund herding is worse than ever: ‘The… “Magnificent Seven”…. Mutual fund managers… have mostly eschewed them…. Hedge funds… yelled “YOLO” and jumped in with both feet…. Goldman Sachs… “Our Hedge Fund VIP list of the most popular long positions has returned +31% YTD, and most of the ‘Magnificent 7’ mega-cap tech stocks remain at the top of the list. Mirroring the increasing concentration in the equity market, concentration in hedge fund portfolios has risen; the typical hedge fund holds 70% of its long portfolio in its top 10 positions. These dynamics have also lifted hedge fund exposure to the Momentum factor to a near record.” Hedge fund crowding is now the most extreme it has been in the 22 years that Goldman has tracked hedge fund positioning.… Momentum can be fun to ride, but…

    <https://www.ft.com/content/047d52a0-01a1-4db5-b342-f7f159d10d84>

  6. Public Reason: William Grimes: The West Studies the East, & Trouble Follows: ‘Said published… “Orientalism” nearly 30 years ago…. Robert Irwin… characterizes [it] … as “a work of malignant charlatanry.” Its distortions are so fundamental, its omissions so glaring, that the first order of business, as Mr. Irwin sees it, is to offer a dispassionate account of what Western scholars did and did not do…. More often than not, the scholars Mr. Irwin describes took an enlightened view of the peoples and the cultures they studied. “There has been a marked tendency for Orientalists to be anti-imperialists,” he writes, “as their enthusiasm for Arab or Persian or Turkish culture often went hand in hand with a dislike of seeing those people defeated and dominated by the Italians, Russians, British or French”…. [But] in the age of postcolonial studies, “Orientalism” continues to get an enthusiastic, even reverential hearing. It may not be right, but it feels good… <https://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/01/books/01grim.html>

  7. CryptoGrifting: Molly White: “Issue 47—Residual Garbage”: ‘Crypto venture capital funding plummeted 68% compared to 2022… $10.7 billion invested into crypto projects…. Reports… trumpeting… “hacks are down”… primarily driven by the fact that the assets that are being stolen are simply worth less…. Anti-rug-pull bot rug pulls: The Megabot project promised traders an AI trading bot that would earn its users “up to 30% monthly”. Besides that, it promised that the bot would trade while “sidestepping potential risks such as honeypots, rugs, and slow rugs”. “No one will be able to rug you anymore,” its website boasted. Or at least the website boasted that before it went offline…

    Citation Needed
    Issue 47 – Residual garbage
    Wishing the happiest of holidays, solstice, and (impending) new year to all of you lovely folks! Here’s hoping that none of you endured any Bitcoiners trying to follow Cointelegraph’s advice on “orange-pilling” you over the holiday table. My holiday was lovely, and I’m sure you’ll all be happy to hear that Atlas …
    Read more
  8. Neofascism: Timothy Burke: The News: One of Those Years: ‘The inability of standard centrist-technocrat governments to deliver anything like vision… is opening up space for far-right ethnonationalist rulers who lack the capacity to manage state administrations… but who do have some kind of consistent social-cultural vision…. That was the story for first-wave fascist regimes… as well.… [In] the United States… 40% of the electorate stares catastrophe in the face and happily embraces it…. They fear they’d lose the country entirely if we just went on muddling through with competent centrism and a more-or-less liberal majority sociocultural bent, so they’d rather burn the whole thing down…

    Eight by Seven
    The News: One of Those Years
    Rather than the year that was, in the waning days of 2023, let’s talk about the year to come. 2024 seems like one of those years like 1848 and 1914 and 1939 that can’t help but be a turning point for humanity, destined to be remembered if anyone’s left to do the remembering…
    Read more
  9. Jeff Tiedrich: The “Crisis at the Border”: ‘Jim Jordan… a few of his Republican pals… an airplane… reporters… fly down to… expose the seriousness of the border crisis. Because everyone knows there’s a border crisis. it’s all over Fox News. Newsmax. Breitbart. Border crisis. Six billion filthy violent foreign-language-gibbering illegal immigrants streaming across our southern border and coming to f*** up all your shit and take your job…. Yes, SIX BILLION! Marjorie Three Toes wouldn’t lie to you, would she?)… Spoiler alert: they couldn’t find one person crossing the border…. “As they rumbled along the entry port of San Luis, a dam along the Colorado River and more desolate sections of the U.S. border between Arizona and Mexico, though, their search came up empty”…. In the real world, there is no border crisis…. But… Gym lives inside the Wingnut Grievance Bubble, where everyone knows there’s a border crisis…

    everyone is entitled to my own opinion
    BEST OF 2023: fucked around, found out: Scott Adams and Jim Jordan get screwed by the Wingnut Grievance Bubble
    with government and courts shut down this week and hardly any news to write about, I’ll be reposting some of my favorite pieces from the past year, and then closing out 2023 with ‘this year in stupid.’ the post below was written on Feb 27, 2023. wasn’t it awesome to watch smug and annoying Scott Adams totally fuck the shit out of his own career? all it t…
    Read more
  10. Dan Drezner: My 2023 Airing of Grievances: ‘If someone levies a accusation of plagiarism, make sure they understand what plagiarism, you know, actually means. I took a cursory look at Christopher Rufo’s plagiarism allegations against Harvard president Claudine Gay…. The very first example Rufo provides is… a textbook example of paraphrasing someone with the appropriate citation! It’s not plagiarism, and it sure as hell makes skeptical that Rufo knows what that word means…. Weak-ass claims of plagiarism weaken necessary claims of plagiarism. Cut it out…

Drezner’s World
My 2023 Airing of Grievances
Ah, December 24th. You know what that means: it’s time for Festivus for the rest of us…
Read more

Get 33% off a group subscription


SubStack Posts:

Donate Subscriptions

Leave a comment

Get 50% off for 1 year

Now Is This Winter of Our Crypto Discontent Turned to Glorious Summer by... Niall Ferguson?

I confess that Niall Ferguson as the sole remaining intellectual defender of crypto was not what I had on my Bingo card for December 2023. Everyone else long since moved on to hyping “AI”…

Get 50% off for 1 year


Share

Somebody very smart, who knows a lot, and who thinks enough like me for me to easily follow and agree with what he says—until, suddenly, all at once, he goes not off the rails but completely in another dimension, with something to which I have the same reaction as if he were to suddenly switch gears and write something like:

And, of course, all this rests on the Shoggoths, and whoever controls them controls the universe!…

For example: Niall Ferguson.

Let me start by drawing distinctions between:

  1. Investment: You can construct a reasonable Bayesian distribution of likely future outcomes (or you can borrow the one revealed by market prices), and with reasonable confidence commit your wealth to support activities that will yield in the future produce valued goods and services in excess of their production cost, and hence are likely to profit.

  2. Speculation: You cannot construct any reasonable Bayesian distribution of likely future outcomes for new technologies. Why not? Because, as Friedrich von Hayek wisely observed, if we could do so we would already be much further along in deploying those technologies than we are. Hence we are in Knightian uncertainty rather than Bayesian risk. There may be activities that will yield in the future produce valued goods and services in excess of their production cost, and hence they may be future profit. But do not ask the odds. Nobody knows, and nobody has any business claiming that they know.

  3. Gambling: This is easy: No money is coming into the system. So what one participant wins, another must lose: zero sum. You can do this, if it gives you a dopamine thrill. But don’t think that you are even speculating. And never think you are doing anything that might be rightly termed “investing”.

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality


Yesterday evening a friend sent me, with an attached note saying “!”, this: Niall Ferguson (2023): “If You Held On for Dear Life, It’s a Merry Cryptomas!” <https://www.wealthmanagement.com/alternative-investments/if-you-held-dear-life-its-merry-cryptomas>. And let me start by quoting this from it:

Crypto’s first bull market was almost entirely driven by belief in Bitcoin’s potential to provide censorship-resistant digital cash…. This era ended in 2013 and 2014… the collapse of the Mt. Gox exchange…. 

Crypto’s second bull market… 2016… Ethereum… ICOs… smart-contract blockchains…. It became clear that these networks hosted very little useful… yet another winter…. 

The 2020 bull market seemed to answer these doubts about utility, beginning with “DeFi Summer” and followed by crazes for decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and nonfungible tokens (NFTs). It appeared… crypto networks were now hosting activity from actual users…. [But] excessive risk levels and poor financial engineering… caused the downfall of projects such as Terra and the blowup of funds such as Three Arrows Capital… 

Leave a comment

All quite reasonable, no? 

Right now DAOs and NFTs are definitely not in favor—all of their former enthusiasts who made the buzz are off chasing “AI”. And so the next paragraph to follow in Ferguson’s piece should have been something about the falloff of venture money flowing into and of “innovations” in crypto, and something to the effect that prices will fluctuate, but that fundamentals do not look good. Thus one would expect the next paragraph to be how crypto was never investment, but always rather speculation, and it has now become gambling.

But NO!! Instead, next the Shoggoths arrive! 

Read more

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-26 Tu

Starting to pack a SubStack-exit parachute; are the Magnificent Seven productivity, monopoly, or bubble?; Karl Smith on Team Rate Cuts Now!; “Economist” writers need to read their own magazine much more carefully; 2023 bond-market round-trip; news coverage & pessimism about the economy; Alan Rickman was an acting god; very briefly noted; & New Year 2024 paid-subscription sale, Cyrus the Persian Anointed of the LORD, appreciating Ernst Gellner, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-23 Sa…

Get 50% off for 1 year


Public Reason: As Ken White says, The SubStack Nazi problem is not that they do not police (save for porn, & c.), who they let use their service to construct their own Walled Garden or misinformation-broadcast newsletter. The problem is that they see money to be made in boosting neofascists.

That is, most important, defecating in the information stream. That is, second most important, a downstream problem for me when the Nazi Bar elements begin leaking over to my readership through SubStack’s recommendation engines.

So it is time to think about how—if things deteriorate—to set myself up to leave the platform for another:

Russell Nohelty: ‘I know a lot of people are considering leaving Substack because of the current troubles…. Beehiiv and Ghost and all sorts of other solutions… are very expensive…. Were I to leave… WordPress from a host like Bluehost, Siteground, Godaddy, etc…. Elementor and Themify… the Newsletter plugin… or Sendy (wordpress.org/plugins/sendy-widget) to send emails…. Rmail set up for your domain… for about $5/mo from Google. For your paywall… Memberful…

Share


Economics: Is the extraordinarily rapid runup in the Magnificent Seven this year a monopoly fact, a productivity fact, or a positive feedback bubble fact? What the stock market performance in 2023 tells us about the future really, really hinges on which of those three factor is the one most in play. And I have not seen a good analysis. It provides me with enough information to make any kind of reasonable judgment:

Katie Martin: Year in a World: Magnificent Seven: ‘For a short time at the start of 2023, stock markets behaved as recession-obsessed investors expected: badly. But a drab start quickly gave way to a rally dominated by a clutch of big tech names stitched loosely together through the hot theme of artificial intelligence: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta and Nvidia. By June, their Magnificent Seven nickname was really starting to stick. Some element of top-heaviness is a reasonably common feature in US equities, but the Magnificent Seven (or Mag7 for short) have taken that to new extremes.… The Mag7 have gained more than 100 per cent this year and account for a massive 30 per cent or so of the index. Without them, the S&P 500 is up 11 per cent; with them, the performance is doubled…. Investors say… inflows are coming from conservative investors seeking companies that can weather a downturn, stockpickers convinced of the AI revolution, short-termists chasing high-flying stocks and index trackers following a broad index. <https://www.ft.com/content/ba909fe4-955c-4943-a179-273dd4908bcd>

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality


Economics: The very sharp Karl Smith sees low average hours as a potential sign of weakness—any slackening of demand will see people get fired, which is likely to start a vicious circle as the fired and those who fear that they might be fired cut back on their consumption:

Karl Smith: Fed Rate Cuts Must Come Sooner Rather Than Later <https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-22/why-the-federal-reserve-must-cut-interest-rates-sooner-rather-than-later>: ‘The labor market is rapidly weakening in ways that aren’t well appreciated, raising the risk of a recession if the central bank waits too long to ease monetary policy…. [Thus] Powell should be more worried about tipping the economy into a recession by not lowering rates than he might be with squeezing out the so-called “last mile” of inflation by keeping borrowing costs higher for longer than needed…

Leave a comment


Journamalism: Do the writers of the London Economist read their own rag? It seems that they probably do not.

I read today that: “a paper finding that <economist.com/finance-and-economics/202…> after taxes and transfers American incomes are barely less equal than in the 1960s was accepted for publication…. Piketty’s faction is on the defensive, accusing its critics of ‘inequality denial’…”

But if the Economist writers had read their own magazine, they would have been given substantial pause, because they would have read Wojciech Kopczuk’s observation: “The remarkable thing is that almost all of their modifications push in the same direction—that’s something you wouldn’t expect a priori.” It really is not. Studies that put their thumb on the scale to that degree are highly untrustworthy. That should have given the bosses who wrote the piece I quote below a lot of pause.

And I think they should have just put their piece in the circular file once they had reflected enough to notice this: Elon Musk’s wealth today is 2.5 million times median family income while Daniel Ludwig’s—his predecessor back in 1982—wealth was only 85 thousand times median income tells me that top income and wealth inequality has really exploded in a way totally inconsistent with Auten and Splinter’s claims. It is Auten and Splinter—not Piketty and company—who seem to me to be very much on the defensive, in the sense of having a very hard time answering simple questions about the implications of their numbers:

Economist: Economists had a dreadful 2023: ‘Economists who deal in sober empirical work have also had their conclusions challenged. Consider… inequality…. Thomas Piketty and his co-authors… found a rising gap between rich and poor. But in November a paper finding that <economist.com/finance-and-economics/202… after taxes and transfers American incomes are barely less equal than in the 1960s was accepted for publication by one of the discipline’s top journals. Now Mr Piketty’s faction is on the defensive, accusing its critics of “inequality denial”… <economist.com/leaders/2023/12/20/econom…>

Refer a friend


ONE IMAGE: Bond Market Round Trip

Give a gift subscription


ANOTHER IMAGE:

Get 33% off a group subscription


ONE VIDEO: Alan Rickman:

Donate Subscriptions


Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Neofascism: G.T. Conway: ‘The plan for January 6th was to have Alex Jones march their most crazed supporters to the Capitol so that there would be enough reason to evacuate Pence, and have Grassley (or whomever) move forward with the fake electors plan. But all of that was foiled when Pence refused to get in the car.It was one thing for his VP to refuse to go along with their plan, but now he wouldn’t even just evacuate—which triggered Trump to tell Meadows, ‘fine, then maybe he deserves to be hanged’… <https://www.threads.net/@gtconway3dg/post/C1UY7v_udrL>

  2. Economics: What the Solow Model Can Teach Us About China: ‘Because of depreciation and diminishing returns, a country simply can’t build its way to infinitely high standards of living. If you just keep trying to build more and more, at some point depreciation overwhelms you. and you just can’t build any more!… The Solow model gives a simple explanation for how China was able to build this much, this fast: It had a very high rate of savings and investment, far higher even than other Asian countries…. But the Solow model says that this type of growth has a limit…

    Noahpinion
    What the Solow Model can teach us about China
    The economist Robert Solow died this week, at the age of 99. He was a giant in his field, reshaping macroeconomics in a million ways that we take for granted today. Although he did work in numerous important areas, his most famous contribution by far — and the one for which he won the Nobel — was…
    Read more
  3. Arindrajit Dube: ‘Why is Immaculate Disinflation seen as win for Team Transitory? Here need to look conditional (not just unconditional) predictions. Big disinflation with no unemp hike is signature of supply healing. And supply healing was the key point of TT…. Rate hikes could have led to:1) reduction in inflation through inc in unemp lowering demand (main channel proposed)2) increased unemp and little change in inflation (if supply stayed snarled).Thankfully 2 didn’t happen. Importantly, neither did 1. This is not to say the higher rates had no effect on demand. However, the main postulated mechanism [by Team Persistent for inflation reduction] is through the labor market, leading to reduced incomes and demand. That certainly didn’t happen. The signature of disinflation points to big supply easing. And that was TT point… <https://twitter.com/arindube/status/1738326662515704289>

  4. Ivan Werning: ‘You can argue details, but saying this inflation was the 70s, demand from stimulus or slows or timid monetary response, or some other fiscal immaculate inflation is bananas. Yet focus on supply vs demand is a more political than obviously policy relevant. At least standard macro theory says we should respond similarly to both. This is why I think it’s important to think about Cost Push. Uneven sectoral shocks give you cost push in aggregate <https://kansascityfed.org/documents/8322/JH_Guerrieri.pdf>. And it was not hot labor market… <https://twitter.com/IvanWerning/status/1738707498578649212>

  5. Matthew Connatser: Intel’s CEO says Moore’s Law is slowing to a three-year cadence, but it’s not dead yet: ‘Gelsinger… began by saying… “we’ve been declaring the death of Moore’s Law for about three to four decades.” However, he eventually followed this up with “we’re no longer in the golden era of Moore’s Law, it’s much, much harder now, so we’re probably doubling effectively closer to every three years now, so we’ve definitely seen a slowing”… <https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/intels-ceo-says-moores-law-is-slowing-to-a-three-year-cadence-but-its-not-dead-yet>

  6. Economic History: Claudia Goldin & Michael Klein: EconoFact Chats: Careers, Families, and Women’s Journey towards Economic Equity: ‘There are three areas in which one can make change…. The price of care…. The price of flexibility…. Gender norms… <https://econofact.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/EFChats-Transcropt-Goldin-Careers-Families-and-Womens-Journey-Towards-Economic-Equity.pdf>

  7. Ernst Gellner: Muslim Society: ‘I like to imagine what would have happened had the Arabs won at Poitiers and gone on to conquer and Islamise Europe. No doubt we should all be admiring Ibn Weber’s “The Kharejite Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism”, which would conclusively demonstrate how the modern rational spirit and its expression in business and bureaucratic organisation could only have arisen in consequence of the sixteenth-century neo-Kharejite puritanism in northern Europe. In particular, the work would demonstrate how modern economic and organisational rationality could never have arisen had Europe stayed Christian, given the inveterate proclivity of that faith to a baroque, manipulative, patronage-ridden, quasianimistic and disorderly vision of the world. A faith so given to seeing the cosmic order as bribable by pious works and donations could never have taught its adherents to rely on faith alone and to produce and accumulate in an orderly, systematic, and unwavering manner. Would they not always have blown their profits in purchasing tickets to eternal bliss, rather than going on to accumulate more and more?… <https://archive.org/details/muslimsociety0000gell>

  8. David Aaronovitch: E.P. Thompson & Anti-Stalinism: ‘Thompson was… a rescuer—someone who wanted to stay in touch, to retrieve things of value from the past…. Instead of seeing… passive victims of progress or else its doomed opponents… Thompson wanted to restore to them their energy, agency and independence…. This project is as much a product of his period as a communist as it ever was of his leaving the communist party. Perhaps even more, awkward though this is to acknowledge.

    And he was a rescuer too of his own emotional past. In Leszek Kolakowski’s Poland the communists did the spying. In EP Thompson’s post-war Britain the communists were the spied upon…

    Notes from the Underground with David Aaronovitch
    The Rescuer
    Not very long ago but in a different intellectual era one English-born historian wrote a damning post-obituary for another. The reason for the writer’s ire was rooted in disputes which themselves now feel like history, but which once were the stuff of urgent debates…
    Read more
  9. Michela Giorcelli: Creating the “American Way” of Business: ‘The Second World War[‘s]… effect on U.S. ‘‘managerial technology’’ innovations has been largely ignored…. ‘‘Managerial technology’’ played a key role in shaping U.S. WWII production…. The large-scale diffusion of innovative management practices to US firms involved in war production acted as a technology that put them on a higher growth path for decades… made U.S. managerial practices internationally distinctive and helped create the so-called “American Way” of business… exported to war-torn European and Japanese economies in the war aftermath… <https://www.nber.org/papers/w31980>

  10. Global Warming: Steven T. Dennis: ‘The Kia EV9 and the Rivian R1S seem to be the two big three-row EVs duking it out for suburban family EV supremacy next year. GM still can’t seem to build Ultium-models at scale and the Escalade is going to be nosebleed priced, Ford Explorer EV a ways off, Toyota doesn’t even have a plug-in hybrid Sienna/Highlander yet. Seeing a lot of Rivians last few months on my DC commute. The Kia reviews coming out are glowing… <https://www.threads.net/@steventdennis/post/C1UdabjOBej>

Get 50% off for 1 year


Leave a comment

Cyrus the Persian, Anointed of the LORD, & the Making of the Bible

Something I dearly want to know: how & why was a collection of ritual, religious, political, and folktale texts edited and transformed into a Bible?

Subscribe now


Share

A friend recommended to me Biblical scholar Jacob Wright’s appearance on the Dans McClellan & Beecher podcast <https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/data-over-dogma/id1681418502> about his brand-new book Why the Bible Began: An Alternative History of Scripture and its Origins <https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/why-the-bible-began/0C4F52F4B68EB81337A38FAF5C7C4C7E>.

Wright’s main point is that the experience of conquest and exile—first to Nineveh, and then to Babylon, and then return—was absolutely essential to the creation of the Tanakh as we know it. Wright argues that only the Judahite exiles and then returnees produced anything like a Bible, only them in all world history. And it was the experience of defeat, destruction of their political communities, élite exile, and then return—but not as a nation, but rather as a subservient province of an empire—that led to the extraordinary acts of intellectual creation and community-building centered around not a dynasty or a god or a culture or a language but rather a text that have echoed down the past two and a half millennia.

And this made me wonder about Cyrus the Persian, and his policy of dismantling the Babylonian Empire after his conquest of it by returning cult statues, priests, and élites back to their original cities from which they had been taken to Babylon. We know, more or less how this worked for Jerusalem and what its cult had turned into during the Exile and Return:

Thus saith the LORD to his anointed, to Cyrus, whose right hand I have holden, to subdue nations before him; and I will loose the loins of kings, to open before him the two leaved gates; and the gates shall not be shut…. (Isaiah 45:1)

From the Persian point of view the LORD-cult propagandists then worked for Cyrus and his successors, saying that the Storm God of Moses would ensure that:

  • the kings he fought against would shit themselves in terror,

  • their warriors would simply open city gates when he asked. and

  • his favor and blessing had passed from the dynasty of David son of Jesse of Judah to the dynasty of the Haximanishya of Persia.

But how did this work for other gods, other cults, other élites?

  • In Babylon itself the god Marduk chose Cyrus to replace Nabonidus on the throne, and sustained him and his successors in their rule.

  • In Egypt, conquered by Cambyses, Cambyses became the new and legitimate Pharaoh, “The Horus who Unites the Two Lands, King of Upper and Lower Egypt, Son of Ra, The Good God, Lord of the Two Lands” just as Cyrus became the Anointed of the LORD in Jerusalem, at least according to Fried (2002).

  • (But there were no returning exiles in Babylon or Egypt, just an accommodation of elements of the existing priesthood and bureaucracy with the new conquering military power.)

Cyrus thus becomes the Anointed One of Marduk, of Ra, and of the Storm God of Moses. But only the Hebrew literati took the experience of Exile and the process of Return, and were motivated by it to create and construct a Bible. You can perhaps understand why without the shock of Exile the Egyptian and Babylonian literati élite did not feel pressed to construct a Bible to serve as a central orienting point for their civilization.

But there were other exiles in Babylon, and other captive gods, all of whom seem to have been returned, or so we think from what Cyrus himself writes on the Cyrus Cylinder:

Of Nin[eveh], Assur, and also of Susa, of Agade, of Esnunna, of Zamban, of Meturnu and of Der, up to the borders of Gutium, the cult centers beyond the Tigris, whose [cult] struc­tures had long remained in ruins, I returned to their place the gods who lived there and re­established them for eternity. I gathered all their people and returned their habitations. And the gods of Sumer and Akkad whom Nabonidus, to the wrath of the lord of the gods [Mar­duk], had transported to Babylon, I had them, on the order of Marduk, the great lord, joy­fully installed in their cella, in a dwelling for the joy of the heart…

The Elamites of Susa and Der, the Akkadians of Agade, the Amorites of Esnunna and Zamban, and whoever lived in Meturnu (wherever it was) had the same experience of exile-and-return. Why do we not have anything like a Bible from them?

And what literary-cultic documents were in the library of Ashurbanipal, King of the world, King of Assyria, in Nineveh, and how were those literary-cultic documents understood and used, anyway?

ChatGPT4 tells me:

  • Literary Texts: Epic of Gilgamesh: A masterpiece of Mesopotamian literature, telling the story of the hero Gilgamesh. Enuma Elish (Babylonian Creation Epic): Describing the creation of the world and the rise of the god Marduk. Myth of Adapa: A story about Adapa, who gains and loses the chance for immortality. Epic of Erra (Erra and Ishum): A narrative of the god Erra’s destructive rage and its consequences. Epic of Creation (Enūma Anu Enlil): A series of tablets detailing cosmology and astrology. Myth of Anzu: A tale about the monstrous bird Anzu and the god Ninurta.

  • Religious and Cultic Texts: Prayers and Hymns: Various prayers to Assyrian and Babylonian gods. Ritual Texts: Instructions for performing religious rituals and ceremonies. Lamentations: Including the city laments for the destruction of various cities. Incantations and Magical Texts: Spells and rituals for protection, healing, and cursing. Omens and Divination Texts: Extensive series on divination (e.g., hepatoscopy, lecanomancy).

  • Scientific and Scholarly Texts: Astronomical and Astrological Texts: Including the ‘Mul.Apin’ series on celestial omens. Medical Texts: Descriptions of symptoms, diagnoses, and treatments. Mathematical Texts: Problems and solutions, including metrology and numerology. Lexical Lists and Dictionaries: For Sumerian, Akkadian, and other languages. Geographical Lists: Descriptions of regions, cities, and their characteristics.

  • Administrative and Legal Documents: State Correspondence: Letters between Ashurbanipal and his officials. Administrative Records: Including texts related to agriculture, tribute, and trade. Legal Documents: Contracts, wills, and legal decisions.

  • Historical and Royal Inscriptions: Annals of Ashurbanipal: Chronicles of his military campaigns and achievements. Royal Inscriptions: Celebrating the deeds of Assyrian kings.

  • Miscellaneous Texts: Fables and Proverbs: Short moral stories and sayings. Bilingual and Trilingual Texts: Used for scholarly study of languages…

But I know of no source detailing the use of technologies of writing in the Iron Age Mideast for understanding the world, understanding humanity, and coördinating civilization. All I have to go on are the observations of Ernst Gellner—how writing was utilized by ruling elites to solidify and maintain social order. He emphasizes the role of literacy in reinforcing the power structures of civilizations as a key tool in governing and perpetuating their dominance. Writing was not merely a means of memory, imagination, communication, and record-keeping, but also a significant instrument of power and social control.

Gellner writes—but these are his guesses based on his perceptions of patterns, rather than conclusions based on actual thick description of Iron-Age civilizational patterns:

Agrarian societies tend to develop complex social differentiation, an elaborate division of labour. Two specialisms in particular become of paramount importance: the emergence of a specialized ruling class, and of a specialized clerisy (specialists in cognition, legitimation, salvation, ritual)… (p. 1)

Two very profound revolutions have transformed the human condition so thoroughly that it is tempting to speak of radically different species, at least of societies…. Food production and storage has led to vastly increased size and complexity… [and the] hiving-off of rulers, coercion specialists, and of human markers, or guardians of symbolic markers, in other words of a clerisy…. p=Production, coercion and cognition have become separated, especially since the initiation of conceptual storage by writing… (p. 68)

The truly crucial step in the cognitive development of mankind is the introduction of literacy, and its deployment in religion (i.e. scripturalism)…. The mysterious power of writing in recording, transmitting and freezing affirmations and commands soon endows it with an awe-inspiring prestige, and causes it to be fused with the authority of ritual specialists. The priest takes over writing from the accountant. Just as literacy facilitates bureaucratic, administrative centralization, it also makes possible the codification and logical centralization of doctrine… (p. 71)

Alignments… given the ambiguities of loyalties and the unpredictability of outcomes… depend in large measure on the legitimacy of contestants…. This in turn gives considerable indirect power to those who, through a mixture of literacy and ritual competence, possess the near-monopoly of legitimacy-ascription… bureaucratic office-holders… linked to revelation… an open class of scholars… [knowing] codified divine rules… hereditary members of a caste… [providing] ritual services…. The pen is not mightier than the sword; but the pen sustained by ritual does impose great constraints on the sword. It alone can help the swordsmen decide how to gang up to the greatest advantage… (p. 99)

A clerisy oriented towards codified, circumscribed doctrine by its tendency to play up its own monopoly of literacy… is useful enough to the political authorities eager to enlist its help…. The clerisy may also be capable of avoiding total or permanent subjection to the state (e.g. by possessing a territorial base not under the control of any one state)…. Rivalry with shamans leads clerics to stress doctrine, internal rivalry to codify the said doctrine and endow it with a single Apex; extra-territoriality may enable it to escape political control… (p. 257)

But this, in my view at least, is not even the beginning of understanding.

And what did happen to the Ark of the Covenant in and after the Babylonian conquest, anyway?:

And they shall make an ark of shittim wood: two cubits and a half shall be the length thereof, and a cubit and a half the breadth thereof, and a cubit and a half the height thereof.

11 And thou shalt overlay it with pure gold, within and without shalt thou overlay it, and shalt make upon it a crown of gold round about. And thou shalt cast four rings of gold for it, and put them in the four corners thereof; and two rings shall be in the one side of it, and two rings in the other side of it. And thou shalt make staves of shittim wood, and overlay them with gold. And thou shalt put the staves into the rings by the sides of the ark, that the ark may be borne with them. The staves shall be in the rings of the ark: they shall not be taken from it.

And thou shalt put into the ark the testimony which I shall give thee.

And thou shalt make a mercy seat of pure gold: two cubits and a half shall be the length thereof, and a cubit and a half the breadth thereof. And thou shalt make two cherubims of gold, of beaten work shalt thou make them, in the two ends of the mercy seat. And make one cherub on the one end, and the other cherub on the other end: even of the mercy seat shall ye make the cherubims on the two ends thereof. And the cherubims shall stretch forth their wings on high, covering the mercy seat with their wings, and their faces shall look one to another; toward the mercy seat shall the faces of the cherubims be.

And thou shalt put the mercy seat above upon the ark; and in the ark thou shalt put the testimony that I shall give thee.

And there I will meet with thee, and I will commune with thee from above the mercy seat, from between the two cherubims which are upon the ark of the testimony, of all things which I will give thee in commandment unto the children of Israel…


References:

An Appreciation of: Ernst Gellner: "Plough, Sword, & Book: The Structure of Human History"

Not modes of production alone, but modes of cognition and coërcion as well in the context of a stage theory of human historical development…

Subscribe now


Gellner, Ernest: 1988. Plough, Sword, & Book: The Structure of Human History. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. <https://archive.org/details/ploughswordbooks0000gell>

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality


Share

This, in its interpretation of human history, is perhaps the ultimate Scottish Enlightenment-Era stage-theory book. Only–instead of hunting, herding, agrarian, and commercial society, Gellner has a trinity: hunting and gathering, agrarian society, and industrial society, each marked by distinct economic, power, and cognitive structures. He argues against viewing these transitions as inevitable or predetermined, highlighting their complexity and diversity. The book delves into the interplay of production, coercion, and cognition across these societal stages, stressing the non-linear and multifaceted nature of historical progress. Gellner’s work invites a reevaluation of the simplistic categorizations of human societies and their developmental trajectories. Above all else, Gellner stresses the significance of cognitive aspects in these transitions, focusing on how changes in knowledge and belief systems interact with economic and political structures.

The three big ideas one should take away from Gellner with respect to the large-scale structure of human history are:

  1. The Interplay of Production, Coërcion, & Cognition: None of these is prior to the other—although all are profoundly shaped by technology. These three elements interact in shaping human societies as equals, and not simply, because they are interconnected in complex ways.

  2. Non-Linear Progression of Societies: Societal development is diverse and multifaceted, shaped by various cultural and environmental factors. There is very little that is linear, or predetermined.

  3. Cognitive Aspects of Societal Change: Changes in belief systems and knowledge are crucial in understanding societal transformations—and the modes of cognition are not traceable back to modes of production and modes of domination. All you can say is that the mode of cognition needs to make sense of the mode of production and the mode of domination, for if it does not make sense you have a society-shaking revolutionary situation.

The three big ideas one should take away from Gellner with respect to “modern” societies are:

Read more

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-23 Sa

Pre (and post-!) fax machine technology transfer is really hard!; SubStack’s bosses see an opportunity in boosting the reach of Nazis; Henry Farrell dia-gnoses Jonathan Chait as trading intellect for reach; I shuda bought a bigger computer; Emi Nakamura on the flat Phillips Curve; very briefly noted; & the Fed deserves a lot more respect, scribes have cushy jobs, the Fed is now behind the curve on loosening, Jay Powell’s actions (probably) contained inflation, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-20 We…

Subscribe now


SubStack NOTES:

Economic History: I think this from Jelf and Leslie gets the question of whether there were Jamaican origins to the puddling process for making wrought iron gets it right. There do not seem to have been.

The general rule is that technology transfer is overwhelmingly difficult without and even with extensive written documentation, and usually requires skilled and knowledgeable people with a deep understanding of the processes being adopted. The Soviet government before WWII could not set up its machine tools that it had bought from the U.S. auto industry without the comprehensive and hands-on direction and help from American engineers.

I should not have to say that this is how history is supposed to work: people find things and advance hypotheses, and other people then assess them:

Ian Leslie: Stories are bad for your intelligence <ian-leslie.com/p/stories-are-bad-for-yo…>: ‘How Historians (and Others) Make Themselves Stupid…. Bulstrode…. My guess is that she came across a few suggestive fragments… and wanted so badly to make them into a story which fitted her ideologically determined prior—that the British stole ideas from those they enslaved—that she got carried away, fabricating causes and effects where none existed. It’s one thing for a young and passionate academic to make mistakes; it’s quite another for a series of experienced academics to let her make them…

Oliver Jelf: The origin of Henry Cort’s iron-rolling process: assessing the evidence <osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/rp5ae>: ‘The principal primary sources… do not support the contention that Cort acquired the process from… [the] foundry in Jamaica; nor that the foundry was dismantled and shipped to Portsmouth for Cort’s benefit. The sources instead suggest that… no innovation occurred there; that the chain of events by which Cort is supposed to have heard of the foundry’s activities certainly did not occur… and that no part of the foundry was removed from the immediate vicinity of the island, let alone taken to Portsmouth…

Jenny Bulstrode: Black metallurgists and the making of the industrial revolution tandfonline.com/author/Bulstrode%2C+Jen…>: ‘Metallurgy is the art and science of working metals, separating them from other substances and removing impurities. This paper is concerned with the Black metallurgists on whose art and science the intensive industries; military bases; and maritime networks of British enslaver colonialism in eighteenth-century Jamaica depended. To engage with these metallurgists on their own terms, the paper brings together oral histories and material culture with archives, newspapers, and published works. By focusing on the practices and priorities of Jamaica’s Black metallurgists, the significance and reach of their work begins to be uncovered. Between 1783 and 1784 financier turned ironmaster, Henry Cort, patented a process of rendering scrap metal into valuable bar iron. For this ‘discovery’, economic and industrial histories have lauded him as one of the revolutionary makers of the modern world. This paper shows how the myth of Henry Cort must be revised with the practices and purposes of Black metallurgists in Jamaica, who developed one of the most important innovations of the industrial revolution for their own reasons…

Get 33% off a group subscription


Neofascism: In my view, SubStack gets into real trouble when—as it does—it shifts from giving neofascists a platform to promoting neofascists: Look at all the neofascists you can read on SubStack! Let me recommend some more of them to you! It’s an ethos, or at least a business model:

Ken White: Substack Has A Nazi Opportunity <https://substack.com/home/post/p-139893879>: ‘Dealing With Nazis, Or Not, Can Be A Brand. Substack’s Monetizing It…. I [do not] have to accept Substack’s attempt to convince me that its branding is about the good of humanity. It’s about money…. Substack is engaging in transparent puffery when it brands itself as permitting offensive speech because the best way to handle offensive speech is to put it all out there to discuss. It’s simply not true. Substack has made a series of value judgments about which speech to permit and which speech not to permit…. The suggestion that Hanania was not an overt racist before his pseudonymous background was published is an argument, but a very bad one…. I dislike McKenzie’s apologia for Substack’s policy and for Richard Hanania because it has a sort of detached, sociopathic philosophy popular with techbrahs that all differences of opinion are equal — that a dispute over whether black people are human is like a dispute over the best programming language or whether Rocky Road is the best ice cream. This, too, is a value judgment. It’s not one I share…

Share


Public Reason: Is someone bringing information or analysis of the situation to the table? Or is someone just trying to make somebody else clickthrough so they can sell their eyeballs to advertisers? Read the first! Ignore the second!

As for the substantive points at issue, it seems to me simply stupid that Trump did not conspire to engage in an insurrection—more than a riot and less than a war—to overturn the proper functioning of the government, and simply stupid to argue that the President is not an officer of the United States when the Constitution requires that he swear to “faithfully execute the Office of the President”.

As for the procedural points at issue, the ironic thing is that in slagging Jonathan Chait Henry Farrell is, of course, reinforcing what he sees as the malign tendencies pushing Chait to become ChaitGPT—and thus becoming part of the problem. Which is why Farrell wants to shift the conversation to personal intellectual hygiene, in some sense:

Henry Farrell: Why Jonathan Chait says outrageous things <programmablemutter.com/p/why-jonathan-c…>: ‘The political economy of ChaitGPT…. We live in an attention economy… forces the successful… to become a crude approximation of themselves if they aren’t possessed of exceptional self-control…. Large Language Models were creating a reverse Turing Test, where it would be increasingly difficult to distinguish certain prominent op-ed columnists from the vectorized clouds of statistical associations between text-tokens that might be used to model them…. My objection to most professional contrarians isn’t that they outrage my core beliefs, but that they don’t do so in particularly interesting ways. It’s much harder to distinguish Chait from ChaitGPT than it ought be…. But much more importantly, I wouldn’t particularly fancy the chances of many of the rest of us…. We still live in a world that’s… condensing our opinions and beliefs into crude summaries and simplifications. Fixing that—rather than bagging on any one individual opinionator, however annoying—seems to me the bigger problem…

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality


ONE IMAGE: I Shoulda Bought a Computer with an M3Max Rather than an M3Pro Chip:

Normal operation is filling up a lot of the GPU capacity as a matter of course—and then when I runn MacWhisper the GPU flatlines at full.

Leave a comment


ONE VIDEO: Emi Nakamura: Is the Phillips Curve Getting Flatter?:

Refer a friend


Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Economics: Henry Farrell: Coaseian, Schmoaseian <https://crookedtimber.org/2023/12/10/coasean-schmoasean/>: ‘“Bargains” in much the same sense as as an unfortunate traveler is bargaining with a highwayman… their money or their life. There is a possible win-win… the highwayman and the victim will be happier if the highwayman gets the money, and the victim keeps their life. But… [the] situation… is structured by a grossly asymmetric… relationship…. Politics usually involves asymmetric power… one actor… has far more bargaining power… and is able to push for outcomes that provide it with the lion’s share…

  2. Justin Wolfers: ‘Are we there yet? <https://www.threads.net/@justinwolfers/post/C1KMvE3OsyD> Yes…. The inflation measure the Fed targets (core PCE) has run at an annualized rate of 1.9% over the past six months, below the Fed’s two percent target. This isn’t a one-off blip; it’s six months of sustained low inflation…

  3. Alison Nathan & al.: Top of Mind: 2023: 3 Themes <https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/top-of-mind/2023-3-themes-in-charts/report.pdf>: ‘In this very special Top of Mind year-end edition/Charting the story of this year is our mission./2023 wasn’t just about Taylor’s wildest dreams,/But also three important themes…

  4. Dan Drezner: ‘With the exception of automobile theft, every national crime statistic is trending in the right direction…. Real GDP… surpasses pre-pandemic trendlines… soft landing…. Consumer confidence… yawning gap between the… real economy and public perceptions…. However, the “vibecession” might be coming to an end…. The technological keys… [of] solar, wind, and batteries—are following the same pattern of cost and efficiency improvement as semiconductors…. 2023 was a banner year. I just wish that was common knowledge…

    Drezner’s World
    Is the Country… Continuing to Get Better And Better?
    The hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World has been stressed out as of late. There are papers to be read, exams to be graded, spring syllabi to assemble, grant proposals to draft, rants to write, book drafts to revisit, and committee work to shepherd. There are a lot of balls in the air is what I am saying here…
    Read more
  5. Economic History: Alex Tolley: ‘I am always <https://braddelong.substack.com/p/teaching-note-ep-thompson-and-the/comment/45188740>… suspicious of… diverse peoples… placed in a monolithic group. Yes, Britain was (and remains)… very class conscious…. However, Britain was/is a very culturally diverse place… especially the North-South divide…. 1960s Britain changed… attitudes… greater acceptance of cultural differences…. Working class whites and, say Jamaicans, in post WWII Britain were very different, and I doubt had that much in common, especiially with the explicit racism… arguably maintained to this day…. I do wonder if the whole premise of a “British (English?) working class” (as a group) should even be a thing to be taught, especially in the US…

  6. Alex Vanneman: ‘I read Thompson in my late twenties <https://braddelong.substack.com/p/teaching-note-ep-thompson-and-the/comment/45816618?r=d0v>…. Thompson is searching for, trying to invent, a working class that he can like, rather than the one that existed, one where a simple honest fellow can, after a hard day’s work, settle down to Cobbett’s Register rather than a racing form or look at page 3 girls…

  7. Neofascism: Eric Rauchway: ‘Guy-tapping-temple meme: David M. Perry: If we don’t <https://bsky.app/profile/rauchway.bsky.social/post/3kgyuzi5ddu24> let people who staged a violent insurrection get away with staging a violent insurrection they might stage a violent insurrection…

  8. Public Reason: Dan Davies: productised rage and its discontents: ‘The audience at a comedy club… are happy [because] … modern society is working for them…. But… they’re laughing… [because] a guy at the front of the room [is] telling them jokes…. Fox News…. A lot of people enjoy being angry (or at least, behave as if they do, which is all you need from a commercial point of view)…. The development of productised rage is a big part of the story of the last twenty years…. [How] a system can get out of control when it becomes unregulated…. [In] the Fox News / Dominion court case, you can see the gradual realisation on the part of the media executives that they weren’t actually in the driving seat. They had created a feedback loop between rage and money, and the POSIWD (purpose of a system is what it does) principle had taken over…

    Dan Davies - “Back of Mind”
    productised rage and its discontents
    This started as a digression in Wednesday’s post, but it’s also a theme in the book. There are many reasons why so many people in the developed economies feel a sense of constant simmering impotent fury. But one of the more important ones is that there are a lot of intelligent middle class professionals whose bonuses depend on this being the case…
    Read more
  9. GPT-LLM-ML: John Quiggin: Training my replacement?: ‘I asked ChatGPT to “Write a critique of SMRs in the style of John Quiggin”…. What I got… [was] very good. Overall, I’d say at least as good as the average op-ed piece on this topic, which typically contains at least one factual error or logical fallacy, and is often less well-written…. The style isn’t exactly mine, but it’s closer than what sometimes results when an interventionist editor decides to rewrite my work…. It is a bit ponderous…. The only critical thing the piece lacks is originality. If I were writing a piece for publication, I’d want to make at least one new point…

    John Quiggin’s Blogstack
    Training my replacement ?
    I have an urgent article to write, so of course I’m irresistibly moved to do anything else. Following the precepts of creative procrastination, I’ve dealt with a bunch of administrative tasks, done some chores and resisted the urge to dive into social media (until now!). Having done all that, I decided to check on progress in Large Language Models…
    Read more
  10. Science Fiction: Cat Valente: Hitting That Work/Life Balance Beam Nose-First: Books, Children, and Time: ‘I publish fiction…. Interview questions…. Do you write every day? What’s your writing space look like? What inspires you?… I had a baby…. Those questions… now…have a friend… How do you balance your writing with being a parent? I’m here to tell you the actual answer, which is: “YOU JUST F***ING DON’T EVER AND EVERYTHING IS ON FIRE ALL THE TIME, LITERALLY IT’S ALL ON FIRE RIGHT NOW, AS WE’RE TALKING, THAT’S WHY I HAVE A ZOOM BACKGROUND ON FOR THIS INTERVIEW YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT’S GOING ON BEHIND THAT ALGORITHMICALLY BREEZY BEACH IT’S A WHOLE HIERONYMUS BOSCH SITUATION IN MY HOUSE, BIRDHEADS EATING BUTTS AND PLAYING TESTICLE-FLUTES IN A PILE OF SCAFFOLDING, BROKEN DISHES, AND UNFINISHED WORK AND IT NEVER STOPS EVEN FOR A SECOND…”

    Welcome to Garbagetown
    Hitting That Work/Life Balance Beam Nose-First: Books, Children, and Time
    Note: I’m working on a big essay for Monday and a year-anniversary follow-up to the piece that launched this newsletter for next week. In the meantime, the following essay is cross-posted from my Patreon (with a few changes for contextual clarity) on account of it being an explanation for my recent WEIRD-ASS QUIETUDE which also was weird, ass, and quiet here on Substack. This is what’s been going on with me; I did not die, I just had a brutal deadline and no time or space to breathe. It’s under a paywall here because it’s under a paywall at Patreon, I do apologize but times are tough for artists everywhere and I have to play fair with the amazing people who support my non-fiction writing online…
    Read more

Give a gift subscription


SubStack Posts:

https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":100}],"post_date":"2023-12-23T00:12:22.247Z","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F59fc56e2-2d85-4815-8058-d887271727f3_1158x628.png","cover_image_alt":null,"canonical_url":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/the-feds-remarkable-feat","section_name":"Macro Outlook","id":140022607,"type":"newsletter","reaction_count":3,"comment_count":0,"publication_name":"Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality","publication_logo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffde2453e-9c18-4560-82ca-8b77ae62ef5b_1280x1280.png","belowTheFold":true}">
https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":100}],"post_date":"2023-12-22T20:28:05.907Z","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe923b81b-630b-410a-9374-114d0a8e02de_442x500.jpeg","cover_image_alt":null,"canonical_url":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/hoisted-from-the-egyptian-middle","section_name":"Enlarging the Bounds of Human Empire","id":139796742,"type":"newsletter","reaction_count":8,"comment_count":0,"publication_name":"Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality","publication_logo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffde2453e-9c18-4560-82ca-8b77ae62ef5b_1280x1280.png","belowTheFold":true}">

Donate Subscriptions

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

The Fed’s Remarkable Feat

The published column over at Project Syndicate: <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fed-monetary-policy-near-perfect-humbling-for-commentators-on-all-sides-by-j-bradford-delong-2023-12>…

Subscribe now


The Fed’s Remarkable Feat

Share

J. BRADFORD DELONG
Dec 22, 2023

When it comes to the lessons of history, current economic fundamentals, and the broader macroeconomic outlook, there is plenty for monetary-policy watchers to debate. But all should be able to agree that the US Federal Reserve has carried out an exceedingly difficult task almost perfectly.

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality


BERKELEY – Monetary-policy watchers are currently divided into two groups. But perhaps both sides should pause and reflect on where we were 18 months ago and where we are now.

On one side of the divide are those of us who still obsess over the great imbalance between the supply of savings and the demand for funds for real investment. These were the conditions that underpinned a decade of zero-lower-bound (ZLB) interest rates and secular stagnation (low growth due to structurally low aggregate demand) after the 2008 global financial crisis. Since there is no fundamental reason for expecting the pandemic and the subsequent economic reopening to have eliminated this imbalance, it follows that the equilibrium neutral real interest rate (where monetary policy would be neither expansionary nor contractionary) remains very low: namely, where it was during the secular-stagnation period.

Read more

HOISTED FROM THE EGYPTIAN MIDDLE KINGDOM: Duau-Khety: Satire of the Trades

Duau Khety (-1950): Satire of the Trades. Itjtawy. <https://www.ucl.ac.uk/museums-static/digitalegypt/literature/satireindex.html>.


Beginning of the teaching made by the man of Tjaru called Dua-Khety for his son called Pepy. It was while he was sailing south to the Residence to place him in the writing school among the children of officials, of the foremost of the Residence.

Satire of the Trades

Subscribe now

He said to him:

I have seen violent beatings: so direct your heart to writing. I have witnessed a man seized for his labour. Look, nothing excels writing. It is like a loyal man. Read for yourself the end of the Compilation and you can find this phrase in it saying ‘The scribe, whatever his place at the Residence. He cannot be poor in it’.

He accomplishes the wish of another when he is not succeeding I do not see a profession like it that you could say that phrase for, so I would have you love writing more than your mother and have you recognise its beauty For it is greater than any profession, there is none like it on earth. He has just begun growing, and is just a child, when people will greet him (already). He will be sent to carry out a mission,and before he returns, he is clothed in linen (like an adult man).

I do not see a sculptor on a mission or a goldsmith on the task of being despatched but I see the coppersmith at his toil at the mouth of his furnace his fingers like crocodile skin his stench worse than fish eggs.

The jeweller drills in bead-making using all of the hardest hard stones. When he has completed the inlays, his arms are destroyed by his exhaustion. He sits at the food of Ra with his knees and back hunched double.

The barber shaves into the end of the evening continually at the call, continually on his elbow, pushing himself continually from street to street looking for people to shave. He does violence to his arms to fill his belly, like bees that eat at their toil.

The reedcutter sails north to the marshes to take for himself the shafts (?). When he has exceeded the power of his arms in action, When the mosquitoes have slaughtered him and the gnats have cut him down too, then he is broken in two.

The small potter is under his earth even when he is stood among the living. He is muddier with clay than swine to burn under his earth. His clothes are solid as a block and his headcloth is rags, until the air enters his nose coming from his furnace direct. When he has made the pestle out of his legs, the pounding is done with himself, smearing the fences of every house, and beaten by his streets.

Let me tell you what it is like to be a bricklayer the bitterness of the taste. He has to exist outside in the wind, building in his kilt, his robes a cord from the weaving-house stretching round to his back. His arms are destroyed by hard labour. mixed in with all his filth. He eats the bread with his fingers though he can only wash the once.

For the carpenter with his chisel (life) is utterly vile covering the roof in a chamber, measuring ten cubits by six. to cover the roof in a month after laying the boards with cord of the weaving-house All the work on it is done, but the food given for it couldn’t stretch to his children.

The gardener has to carry a rod and all his shoulder bones age, and there is a great blister on his neck, oozing puss. He spends his morning drenching leeks, his evening in the mire. He has spent over a day, after his belly is feeling bad. So it happens that he rests dead to his name aged more than any other profession.

The field labourer complains eternally his voice rises higher than the birds, with his fingers turned into sores, from carrying overloads of produce (?). He is too exhausted to report for marsh work, and has to exist in rags. His health is the health on new lands; sickness is his reward. His state work there is whatever they have forgotten. If he can ever escape from there, he reaches his home in utter poverty, downtrodden too much to walk.

The mat-weaver (lives) inside the weaving-house he is worse off than a woman, with his knees up to his stomach, unable to breathe in any air. If he wastes any daytime not weaving, he is beaten with fifty lashes. He has to give a sum to the doorkeeper to be allowed to go out to the light of day.

The weapon-maker is denigrated utterly going out to the hill-land. What he give to his ass is greater than the work that results, and great is his gift to the man in the country who puts him on the track. He reaches his home in the evening, and the travelling has broken him in two.

The trader goes out to the hill-land after bequeathing his goods to his children, fearful of lions and Asiatics. He recognises himself again, when he is in Egypt (He reaches his home in the evening, and the travelling has broken him in two.) His house is of cloth for bricks, without experiencing any pleasure.

The stny-worker his fingers are rotted, the smell of them is as corpses, and his eyes are wasted by the mass of flame. He can never be rid of his stn, spending his day cut by the reed; his own clothing is his horror.

The sandalmaker is utterly the worst off with his stocks of more than oil. His health is health as corpses, as he bites into his skins.

The washerman does the laundry on the shore neighbour to the crocodiles. ‘Father is going to the water of the canal’, he says to his son and his daughter. Is this not a profession to be glad for, more choice than any other profession? The food is mixed with places of filth, and there is no pure limb on him. He puts on the clothing of a woman who was in her menstruation. Weep for him, spending the day with the washing-rod, with the cleaning-stone upon him. He is told ‘dirty washbowl, come here, the fringes are still to be done!’

The bird-catcher is the most utterly miserable he is more miserable than any other profession. His toil is on the river, mixed in with the crocodiles. When the collection of his dues takes place, then he is always in lament. He can never be told ‘there are crocodiles surfacing’: his fear has blinded him. If he goes out, it is on the water of the canal, he is as at a miracle. Look, there is no profession free of directors, except the scribe – he IS the director.

If, though, you know how to write that is better life for you than these professions I show you; protector of the worker, or his wretch the worker? The field labourer of a man cannot say to him ‘do not watch over (me)’. Look, the trouble of sailing south to the Residence, look, it is trouble for love of you. A day in the school chamber is more useful for you than an eternity of its toil in the mountains. It is the fast way, I show you. Or should I inspire desire for being woken at dawn to be bruised?

Let me tell you in another manner do not come too close in good bearing. If you enter when the lord of the house is at home, and his arms are extended to another before you, You are to be seated with your hand on your mouth. Do not request anything beside him, but react to him when addressed, and avoid joining the table.

If you are walking behind officials do not come too close in good bearing. If you enter when the lord of the house is at home, and his arms are extended to another before you, You are to be seated with your hand on your mouth. Do not request anything beside him, but react to him when addressed, and avoid joining the table.

Be serious with anyone greater in dignity Do not speak matters of secrecy, for the secretive is the one who can shield himself Do not speak matters of boasting, but take your seat with the reliable.

If you come out from the school chamber when you have been told the midday hour, for coming and going in the streets Debate for yourself the end of the place

If an official sends you on a mission say it exactly as he says it, without omission, without adding to it. Whoever leaves out the declamation (?),his name shall not endure, but whoever completes with all his talent, nothing will be kept back from him, he will not be parted from all his places.

Do not tell lies against a mother – that is the extreme for the officials. If it has happened, his arms are mustered, and the heart has made him weak, do not add to it with meekness. That is worse for the belly, when you have heard. If bread satisfies you, and drinking two jars of beer, there is no limit for the belly one would fight for; if another is satisfied standing up, avoid joining the table.

Look, you send out the throng, you hear the words of officials, Behave then like the children of (important) people, when you are going to collect them. The scribe is the one seen hearing (cases); Would fighters be the ones to hear? Fight words that are contrary; move fast when you are proceeding – your heart should never trust. Keep to the paths for it: the friends of a man are your troops.

Look – Abundance is on the path of the god and Abundance is written on his shoulder on the day of his birth. He reaches the palace portal, and that court of officials is the one allotting people to him. Look, no scribe will ever be lacking in food or the things of the House of the King, may he live, prosper and be well! Meskhenet is the prosperity of the scribe, the one placed before the court of officials. Thank god for the father, and for your mother, you who are placed on the path of the living. See what I have set out before you, and for the children of your children.

This is its end, perfect, in harmony.

Share

Share Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

The Fed Is Now Behind the Curve in Beginning the Easing Phase of Its Cycle: Six-Month PCE Inflation at Target: 1.9% per Year

I confess I do not see a valid argument against an 0.5%-point interest-rate cut at the next Fed meeting…

Subscribe now


The Federal Reserve’s target inflation index—the PCE—came in negative for the month of November:

Share

As Justin Wolfers says: we are there—soft landing achieved:

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality

Which raises the question: why is monetary policy still in a range we think of as substantially restrictive, rather than neutral? The bond market agrees that monetary policy is substantially restrictive: the yield curve inversion is still quite large, as the gap between the top Federal Funds and the red nominal 10-Yr Treasury Bond rate tells us:

Leave a comment

Meanwhile, the green bond-market 10-year forward inflation expectations line shows us that bond market expectations of inflation are still rock-solid where we would want them to be. And long real interest rates—the blue line—remain high in recent historical perspective.

In fact, real long rates have not been this high since March of 2010:

With expectations rock-solid where they should be, I do not see an argument against an 0.5%-point interest rate cut at the next Fed meeting: What eventuality is maintaining substantially restrictive policy supposed to be buying insurance against?

Subscribe now

The Expectations Debate Again: Why I Think That It Is Likely We Would Still Have an Inflation Problem If Jay Powell Had Not Acted in 2022

It is not just that keeping interest rates low would have in all likelihood led to an overheated economy with wage-push inflation; it is also that inflation expectations looked like they might have been beginning to drag if not slip their anchor…

Subscribe now


Is this from the very sharp Mike Konczal correct?

Mike Konczal: What to Expect of the Expectations Debate: You are going to hear more about “expectations” in the year ahead, so it’s worth doing some stage setting for how this debate will go. I’ll certainly be revising my views on this; but this is my first pass to end 2023.

I want to distinguish between three similar, but different, arguments:

  1. The Fed drove the disinflation in 2023 through inflation expectations.

  2. Steady long-term expectations of inflation provided an anchor that helped allow the reopening shock to remain transitory.

  3. The Fed was required to take interest rates into restrictive territory in order to keep (2), in order for long-term expectations to remain anchored. Without restrictive rates, the reopening shock would have become persistent instead.

[a] I think the first is wrong. [b] In current DSGE models that involve forward-looking expectations, you can (controversially) have disinflation uncorrelated with economic activity or unemployment through changes in what people expect inflation to be in the long-term. [c] But that requires actual movement in long-term expectations, one-for-one movements generally. We have seen that kind of movement before, e.g. in the United States during the 1980s. We don’t have any equivalent movement now; there’s simply no variance in long-term measures of inflation in the past year that could justify the disinflation we’ve seen. [d] Without that, the straight-forward version of the first argument doesn’t hold…

Rortybomb
What to Expect of the Expectations Debate
You can tell the vibes have changed on inflation because we’ve moved from debating who deserves the blame to deciding who gets the credit. In a Financial Times interview last Friday Larry Summers argues that restrictive Fed policy deserves the credit through impacting expectations…
Read more

The distinction between (1), (2), and (3) is very useful. But let me go through that last paragraph sentence-by-sentence:

[a] I would agree with Mike that (1) is wrong if you amend it to read: The Fed drove the disinflation in 2023 through changing inflation expectations. Without that amendment, (3) becomes a subclass of (1), and I think that (3) is true.

[b] I REALLY DO NOT CARE WHAT HAPPENS IN CURRENT DSGE MODELS. THEY ARE A COGNITIVE DENIAL-OF-SERVICE ATTACK AGAINST THOUGHT IF YOU TAKE THEM AS ANYTHING MORE THAN A THEORETICAL BOUNDARY MARKER OF SOME SORT. THINGS TRUE IN THEM CAN BE FALSE IN THE ECONOMY. THINGS FALSE IN THEM CAN BE TRUE IN THE ECONOMY.

[c] Wait a minute! Let’s roll the videotape.

Here we have the ten-year inflation breakeven—the rate that CPI inflation would have to average over the next decade in order to equalize the returns between a nominal and an inflation-projected ten-year Treasury Bond held to maturity:

The red line corresponds to the Federal Reserve’s current inflation target: a 2.0% per year flexible average for the PCE inflation index. As you can see, up until the late spring of 2021 the bond market thought that we were likely to still be in a régime of secular stagnation—one in which the Federal Reserve was failing to hit its inflation target on the low side. Then from the late spring of 2021 through early 2022 the bond market’s expectations are for the Federal Reserve to hit its inflation target, on average, over the next ten years.

Now look at the red circle. Between February 22 and March 9, 2022, the ten-year inflation breakeven breaks out to the upside, reaching on March 11 a level of 2.94% per year as the average future CPI inflation rate. On March 15 the Federal Reserve for the first time raised interest rates, by 25 basis points. The ten-year inflation breakeven did not move. It kissed 3.02% per year on April 21.

Bond market inflation expectations had shifted.

Suppose, on April 21, 2022, (a) you had warrant to think that bond-market inflation expectations were both rational and representative of broader economy-wide expectations, and (b) suppose you were willing to hazard a guess that people in general thought that there was a 2/3 chance that the Federal Reserve would hit its target on average.

Then you would have said that:

  • There was a 2/3 chance that things would normalize, and that Fed monetary policy would be such as to hit the inflation target over the next decade—maybe higher by some, maybe lower by some, but on average.

  • There was a 1/3 chance that CPI inflation over the next decade would average a number higher than 2.5% per year on a CPI basis—and a reasonable guess would be that, along that branch of the distribution, we would see a decade averaging something like 4% per year inflation, maybe higher and maybe lower.

Now you might say that implicit bond-market bond-trader expectations among those active in the Treasury market have nothing to do with overall inflation expectations by real people whose decisions count for wages and prices. But I think that is an unwise thing to say. You might say that implicit bond-market bond-trader expectations among those active in the Treasury market are much more sensitive to news and misinformation and panic than overall inflation expectations by real people whose decisions count for wages and prices. And I would say you have a point.

But I would say that if you believe bond-trader expectations give us some information about real-people expectations, and if you believe stagflation can be driven by expectational shifts caused by a loss of credibility in the central bank, then you would have to say that, at least as of April 20, 2022, a decade featuring stagflation was definitely on the menu of possibilities.

Then, over the next month, from April 20 to May 20, implicit bond-market bond-trader inflation expectations to a level consistent with the Fed hitting its target over the next ten years.

On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve raised its Fed Funds target rate by 50 basis points, from 0.33% per year to 0.83% per year, and reaffirmed its commitment to its price level target in spite of the supply shock caused by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine:

On June 17, they would further raise the target by 75 basis points to 1.58% per year, and in the meantime reinforced their message that they would do what it takes to hit their inflation target.

Thus I think that, more likely than not, there was movement in inflation expectations—but it was definitely not that expectations rose, inflation rose point-for-point, the Fed took action, expectations fell, and inflation fell point for point.

But I don’t think any of those arguing that “The Fed drove the disinflation in 2023 through [the effects of its monetary policy moves on] inflation expectations” would argue that. They argue that inflation expectations would likely have become unhinged in the absence of the action the Fed started taking in spring 2022.

[d] Thus, while I agree with Mike that a straightforward version of (1) does not hold, care needs to be taken to specify the counterfactual, and thus the meaning of “drive”.

On the other hand, I would 100% agree with Mike’s first bottom line that in moving late and then moving relatively fast:

the Fed wasn’t as restrictive as the level implied by the [Taylor-rule] inflation régime it is generally understood to be following…. ‘Powell got really tough’ seems like a stretch. ‘Powell took out insurance against a bad case of a transitory shock becoming permanent’ seems more like the read…

And I agree with Konczal’s call for people to remember and praise Reifschneider & Wilcox (2022), and with his second bottom line: that it is by far the best to:

understand… the shock we just went through as the type of shock that is temporary if we don’t screw it up… [not] a demand shock above a more general idea of potential output. These arguments are subsumed under the question “how should policy respond to a supply shock?” which is a good question to be thinking about in the years ahead. But, whatever stock you take in expectations here, they don’t really shake the reopening story at its core…

References:

  • Robert Armstrong & Ethan Wu: 2023. “Larry Summers: we haven’t nailed the landing yet”. Financial Times December 14 <https://www.ft.com/content/59fff67e-b136-4435-89e1-2400b90f4b83>.

  • DeLong, J. Bradford: 2023. “Morning Notes on December 19, 2023 on the Inflation Debate” Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality.

  • Konczal, Mike: 2023. “What to Expect of the Expectations Channel.”

Rortybomb
What to Expect of the Expectations Debate
You can tell the vibes have changed on inflation because we’ve moved from debating who deserves the blame to deciding who gets the credit. In a Financial Times interview last Friday Larry Summers argues that restrictive Fed policy deserves the credit through impacting expectations…
Read more

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-20 We

Inflation & vibecession; no good case for the 2% per year inflation target; never believe a “thought leader” who has been right once in the past; Dave Karpf has Michael Lewis’s number with respect to why he wrote the dumpster fire that is Going Infinite; Grindavík; the inflation decline of 2023 was like 1948 & 1952; very briefly noted; & notes on the inflation debate, any Turing-class entities in the house?, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-18 Mo…

Subscribe now


SubStack NOTES:

Economics: A very nice theory of why an inflation that is zero-sum with respect to the real household budget is, nevertheless, a source of great anxiety. Things that you purchase that you cannot adjust without a difficult conversation with your spouse have gone up in price, and you rationally fear that they may go up in price even more. And you cannot control whether that will happen, and that is a great source of anxiety:

Dan Davies: theories of the vibes:

Dan Davies - “Back of Mind”
theories of the vibes
A reader asked a while back about what might be said about the current climate of “vibecession” in the USA. (Before continuing, I note a favoured old joke that on album covers of the 50s, a credit of “Vibes” means “Almost certainly the best musician on the album”, while in the 90s it means “Literally did nothing…
Read more

‘everything’s fantastic and nobody’s happy…. What’s bad about economic bad times for consumers…. 2. Lack of control or agency over own economic life…. [That] is right in my wheelhouse…. The psychological sensation of not having control over your own life is really bad…. T..here’s a wedge between real household incomes, and the proportion of that income which the householder perceives as being under his or her control.  Measured consumption doesn’t distinguish between goods and services that are experienced as a personal decision and exercise of purchasing power, and those that show up as yet another monthly bill that has to be paid…

Share


Economics: And John Quiggin reminds me of something I should have said in my <braddelong.substack.com/p/morning-notes…>:

John Quiggin: ‘Lost in all this <substack.com/@jquiggin/note/c-45697388> is the point that there is no good case for a 2 per cent inflation target, rather than 4. As far as I can tell, the strongest case is a meta-argument about expectations about the Fed. “Sure, a 4 per cent target would make sense, but if we changed now, the Fed would lose credibility”. That rules out raising the target when inflation is already at or above 4 per cent. And no central bank is going to set a new target above the current rate (the idea of less than 2 per cent inflation was inconceivable when NZ set this target, precisely as the lowest rate that might be sustained. So, we are stuck with 2 per cent and the prospect of periodic returns to the ZLB until something goes catastrophically wrong.

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","author_bio":"Author of Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the 20th Century, sometime Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, too online since 1995, UC Berkeley economic historian","theme":{"background_pop_color":"#B00000","web_bg_color":"#FFFAFA","cover_bg_color":"#FFFAFA","publication_id":47874,"color_links":null,"font_preset_heading":"sans","font_preset_body":"classic_serif","font_family_headings":null,"font_family_body":null,"font_family_ui":null,"font_size_body_desktop":null,"print_secondary":null,"custom_css_web":null,"custom_css_email":null,"home_hero":"magazine-5","home_posts":"custom","home_show_top_posts":true,"hide_images_from_list":false},"threads_v2_settings":{"photo_replies_enabled":true,"first_thread_email_sent_at":"2022-12-08T00:50:49.688+00:00","create_thread_minimum_role":"paid","activated_at":"2022-12-08T00:50:12.304+00:00","reader_thread_notifications_enabled":false},"default_group_coupon_percent_off":"33.00","pause_return_date":null,"has_posts":true,"has_recommendations":true,"first_post_date":"2020-11-27T02:17:57.102Z","has_podcast":true,"has_free_podcast":true,"has_subscriber_only_podcast":false,"has_community_content":true,"twitter_screen_name":"delong","twitter_share_on_publish_opt_in":false,"twitter_permissions":"write","rankingDetail":"Hundreds of paid subscribers","rankingDetailFreeIncluded":"Tens of thousands of subscribers","rankingDetailOrderOfMagnitude":100,"rankingDetailFreeIncludedOrderOfMagnitude":10000,"rankingDetailFreeSubscriberCount":"Over 21,000 subscribers","rankingDetailByLanguage":{"de":{"rankingDetail":"Hunderte von Paid-Abonnenten","rankingDetailFreeIncluded":"Zehntausende von Abonnenten","rankingDetailOrderOfMagnitude":100,"rankingDetailFreeIncludedOrderOfMagnitude":10000,"rankingDetailFreeSubscriberCount":"Über 21,000 Abonnenten"},"es":{"rankingDetail":"Cientos de suscriptores de pago","rankingDetailFreeIncluded":"Decenas de miles de suscriptores","rankingDetailOrderOfMagnitude":100,"rankingDetailFreeIncludedOrderOfMagnitude":10000,"rankingDetailFreeSubscriberCount":"Más de 21,000 suscriptores"},"fr":{"rankingDetail":"Des centaines d’abonnés payants","rankingDetailFreeIncluded":"Des dizaines de milliers d’abonnés","rankingDetailOrderOfMagnitude":100,"rankingDetailFreeIncludedOrderOfMagnitude":10000,"rankingDetailFreeSubscriberCount":"Plus de 21,000 abonnés"},"pt":{"rankingDetail":"Centenas de assinantes pagos","rankingDetailFreeIncluded":"Dezenas de milhares de assinantes","rankingDetailOrderOfMagnitude":100,"rankingDetailFreeIncludedOrderOfMagnitude":10000,"rankingDetailFreeSubscriberCount":"Mais de 21,000 assinantes"},"it":{"rankingDetail":"Centinaia di abbonati a pagamento","rankingDetailFreeIncluded":"Decine di migliaia di abbonati","rankingDetailOrderOfMagnitude":100,"rankingDetailFreeIncludedOrderOfMagnitude":10000,"rankingDetailFreeSubscriberCount":"Oltre 21,000 iscritti"},"de-machine":{"rankingDetail":"Hunderte von zahlenden Abonnenten","rankingDetailFreeIncluded":"Zehntausende von Abonnenten","rankingDetailOrderOfMagnitude":100,"rankingDetailFreeIncludedOrderOfMagnitude":10000,"rankingDetailFreeSubscriberCount":"Über 21,000 Abonnenten"},"en-machine":{"rankingDetail":"Hundreds of paid subscribers","rankingDetailFreeIncluded":"Tens of thousands of subscribers","rankingDetailOrderOfMagnitude":100,"rankingDetailFreeIncludedOrderOfMagnitude":10000,"rankingDetailFreeSubscriberCount":"Over 21,000 subscribers"},"en":{"rankingDetail":"Hundreds of paid subscribers","rankingDetailFreeIncluded":"Tens of thousands of subscribers","rankingDetailOrderOfMagnitude":100,"rankingDetailFreeIncludedOrderOfMagnitude":10000,"rankingDetailFreeSubscriberCount":"Over 21,000 subscribers"}},"author_bestseller_tier":100,"disable_monthly_subscriptions":false,"disable_annual_subscriptions":false,"shows_enabled":true,"notes_feed_enabled":true,"sections":[{"id":305,"created_at":"2021-05-07T18:44:57.466Z","updated_at":"2021-05-07T18:44:57.466Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Hexapodia Is the Key Insight! By Noah Smith & Brad DeLong","description":"teach the world good economics through every means possible, & some means impossible…","slug":"hexapodia-is-the-key-insight-by-noah","is_podcast":true,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":1,"port_status":"success","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/120fad1b-2afb-4295-98ba-11cdc5df4727_1692x1692.png","hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":null,"hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":{"section_id":305,"itunes_podcast_primary_category":"Business","itunes_podcast_primary_subcategory":"","itunes_podcast_secondary_category":"Science","itunes_podcast_secondary_subcategory":"Social Sciences","itunes_email":null,"language":"","itunes_explicit":false,"podcast_art_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/120fad1b-2afb-4295-98ba-11cdc5df4727_1692x1692.png","podcast_subtitle":null,"podcast_keywords":null,"hide_podcast_feed_link":false,"podcast_feed_url":null,"podcast_title":"Hexapodia Is the Key Insight! By Noah Smith & Brad DeLong","podcast_description":"teach the world good economics through every means possible, & some means impossible…","podcast_byline":null,"paid_podcast_episode_art_url":null,"migrated_to_attached_podcast":true},"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[10,84,162],"population":4},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[4,84,130],"population":4},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[130.1093023255814,187.1581395348837,247.2906976744186],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[8.89534883720929,74.72093023255812,144.1046511627907],"population":0},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[4,4,4],"population":5181},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[8.895348837209319,74.72093023255803,144.10465116279067],"population":0}}},{"id":3058,"created_at":"2021-07-17T23:00:30.057Z","updated_at":"2021-07-17T23:00:30.057Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Slouching Towards Utopia?: Long Notes","description":"The &quot;long notes&quot; for my grand 20th century economic history ms….","slug":"slouching-towards-utopia-long-notes","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":4,"port_status":"success","logo_url":"","hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":null,"hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":27099,"created_at":"2022-09-12T23:55:47.846Z","updated_at":"2022-09-12T23:55:47.846Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Slouching Towards Utopia Extras","description":"Extras associated with my 2022 book…","slug":"slouching-towards-utopia-extras","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":5,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":null,"hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":27456,"created_at":"2022-09-17T22:09:51.263Z","updated_at":"2022-09-17T22:09:51.263Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Slouching Towards Utopia—Reviews & Interviews","description":"Slouching Towards Utopia—Reviews & Interviews","slug":"slouching-towards-utopiareviews-and","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":6,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":null,"hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":27457,"created_at":"2022-09-17T22:10:25.411Z","updated_at":"2022-09-17T22:10:25.411Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Slouching Towards Utopia—Podcasts","description":"Slouching Towards Utopia—Podcasts","slug":"slouching-towards-utopiapodcasts","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":7,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":null,"hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":27458,"created_at":"2022-09-17T22:10:49.373Z","updated_at":"2022-09-17T22:10:49.373Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Slouching Towards Utopia—Presentations","description":"Slouching Towards Utopia—Presentations","slug":"slouching-towards-utopiapresentations","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":8,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":null,"hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":43757,"created_at":"2022-12-11T15:21:29.981Z","updated_at":"2022-12-11T15:21:29.981Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Lecture Notes","description":"Lecture Notes","slug":"lecture-notes-econ-135-s2023-history","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":9,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":72175,"created_at":"2023-07-02T18:47:44.038Z","updated_at":"2023-07-02T18:47:44.038Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Enlarging the Bounds of Human Empire","description":"A new book project?","slug":"enlarging-the-bounds-of-human-empire","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":10,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":77600,"created_at":"2023-08-09T18:41:25.186Z","updated_at":"2023-08-09T18:41:25.186Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Archives of My Weblog, Items Surfaced from","description":"Starting from the very beginning…","slug":"archives-of-my-weblog-items-surfaced","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":11,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":79518,"created_at":"2023-08-22T21:40:41.799Z","updated_at":"2023-08-22T21:40:41.799Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"SubTuringBradBot","description":"Trying to make a ChatBot that can come close to conducting office hours for people with questions about my book, &quot;Slouching Towards Utopia&quot;","slug":"subturingbradbot","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":12,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":79558,"created_at":"2023-08-23T00:21:16.715Z","updated_at":"2023-08-23T00:21:16.715Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Macro Outlook","description":"My real-time guesses as to where the U.S.—& the world—economy is going…","slug":"macro-outlook","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":13,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":81116,"created_at":"2023-09-02T00:44:58.652Z","updated_at":"2023-09-02T00:44:58.652Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"The Central Country, & Relative Prosperity & Power","description":"China as superpower, the U.S. as hyperpower, and related issues…","slug":"the-central-country-and-relative","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":14,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":81132,"created_at":"2023-09-02T02:32:53.185Z","updated_at":"2023-09-02T02:32:53.185Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Neoliberalism, Ending?","description":"The fall of the New Deal & the rise &… fall[?] of the New Deal Order","slug":"neoliberalism-ending","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":15,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":81135,"created_at":"2023-09-02T02:51:03.595Z","updated_at":"2023-09-02T02:51:03.595Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Neofascism, & c.","description":"Threats to democracy, present and past…","slug":"neofascism-and-c","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":16,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":81136,"created_at":"2023-09-02T03:02:03.846Z","updated_at":"2023-09-02T03:02:03.846Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Inequality & Domination","description":"How some people grab more than &quot;enough&quot; for themselves…","slug":"inequality-and-domination","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":17,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":81138,"created_at":"2023-09-02T03:05:54.650Z","updated_at":"2023-09-02T03:05:54.650Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Public Reason","description":"How can humanity think productively as an anthology intelligence?…","slug":"public-reason","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":18,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}},{"id":87779,"created_at":"2023-10-13T22:11:17.810Z","updated_at":"2023-10-13T22:11:17.810Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Egregious Moderation","description":"A Substack Newspaper","slug":"egregious-moderation","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":false,"sibling_rank":19,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":true,"email_from_name":"Egregious Moderation","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":true,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false,"showLinks":[],"podcastSettings":null,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[244.1949152542373,162.0762711864407,10.805084745762711],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[126.9813559322034,84.27966101694916,5.618644067796606],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,212,142],"population":31},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,158,148],"population":4},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.51694915254237,97.24576271186443,6.483050847457638],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,204,196],"population":3}}}],"multipub_migration":null,"navigationBarItems":[{"id":"3e010294-4e54-40ff-963e-7dd2ad4f2c9f","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":0,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":305,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":305,"created_at":"2021-05-07T18:44:57.466Z","updated_at":"2021-05-07T18:44:57.466Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Hexapodia Is the Key Insight! By Noah Smith & Brad DeLong","description":"teach the world good economics through every means possible, & some means impossible…","slug":"hexapodia-is-the-key-insight-by-noah","is_podcast":true,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":1,"port_status":"success","logo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/120fad1b-2afb-4295-98ba-11cdc5df4727_1692x1692.png","hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":null,"hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"166115de-87bc-4f4f-a2e5-823d922a1eb7","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":0,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":null,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":true,"standard_key":"chat","post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":null},{"id":"451fc937-68ea-4b79-8ff9-3b340cd32c11","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":0,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":null,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":false,"standard_key":"about","post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":null},{"id":"3552d7e6-e0c8-4405-9ca3-77a51472829b","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":0,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":null,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":false,"standard_key":"archive","post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":null},{"id":"ede8f940-c400-4e77-b661-7b278270d6f5","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":1,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":3058,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":3058,"created_at":"2021-07-17T23:00:30.057Z","updated_at":"2021-07-17T23:00:30.057Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Slouching Towards Utopia?: Long Notes","description":"The &quot;long notes&quot; for my grand 20th century economic history ms….","slug":"slouching-towards-utopia-long-notes","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":4,"port_status":"success","logo_url":"","hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":null,"hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"9475da10-513b-4403-968a-54e17b26aca6","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":2,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":27099,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":27099,"created_at":"2022-09-12T23:55:47.846Z","updated_at":"2022-09-12T23:55:47.846Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Slouching Towards Utopia Extras","description":"Extras associated with my 2022 book…","slug":"slouching-towards-utopia-extras","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":5,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":null,"hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"e5f2c295-d654-4c66-a51d-65a219359917","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":3,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":27456,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":27456,"created_at":"2022-09-17T22:09:51.263Z","updated_at":"2022-09-17T22:09:51.263Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Slouching Towards Utopia—Reviews & Interviews","description":"Slouching Towards Utopia—Reviews & Interviews","slug":"slouching-towards-utopiareviews-and","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":6,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":null,"hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"14f7673b-200e-4461-9921-65c22525754c","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":4,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":27457,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":27457,"created_at":"2022-09-17T22:10:25.411Z","updated_at":"2022-09-17T22:10:25.411Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Slouching Towards Utopia—Podcasts","description":"Slouching Towards Utopia—Podcasts","slug":"slouching-towards-utopiapodcasts","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":7,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":null,"hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"8e25e82d-0f98-40e0-84de-b41a06d7088d","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":5,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":27458,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":27458,"created_at":"2022-09-17T22:10:49.373Z","updated_at":"2022-09-17T22:10:49.373Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Slouching Towards Utopia—Presentations","description":"Slouching Towards Utopia—Presentations","slug":"slouching-towards-utopiapresentations","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":8,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":null,"hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"161157a4-d26c-44cd-937b-491c665b78c0","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":9999,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":77600,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":77600,"created_at":"2023-08-09T18:41:25.186Z","updated_at":"2023-08-09T18:41:25.186Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Archives of My Weblog, Items Surfaced from","description":"Starting from the very beginning…","slug":"archives-of-my-weblog-items-surfaced","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":11,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"97b5bda7-7288-483d-ba75-6c23e62bfb4f","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":9999,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":43757,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":43757,"created_at":"2022-12-11T15:21:29.981Z","updated_at":"2022-12-11T15:21:29.981Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Lecture Notes","description":"Lecture Notes","slug":"lecture-notes-econ-135-s2023-history","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":9,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"5a4aec4a-2b87-4b78-b17b-01650d3ee54e","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":9999,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":81116,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":81116,"created_at":"2023-09-02T00:44:58.652Z","updated_at":"2023-09-02T00:44:58.652Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"The Central Country, & Relative Prosperity & Power","description":"China as superpower, the U.S. as hyperpower, and related issues…","slug":"the-central-country-and-relative","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":14,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"bbf6a346-568d-4114-b083-19fda791c954","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":9999,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":81132,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":81132,"created_at":"2023-09-02T02:32:53.185Z","updated_at":"2023-09-02T02:32:53.185Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Neoliberalism, Ending?","description":"The fall of the New Deal & the rise &… fall[?] of the New Deal Order","slug":"neoliberalism-ending","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":15,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"a068a30e-3c45-466f-9c18-6ed0335a9935","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":9999,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":81135,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":81135,"created_at":"2023-09-02T02:51:03.595Z","updated_at":"2023-09-02T02:51:03.595Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Neofascism, & c.","description":"Threats to democracy, present and past…","slug":"neofascism-and-c","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":16,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"388904ed-8f78-491a-bb53-f27355425f50","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":9999,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":81136,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":81136,"created_at":"2023-09-02T03:02:03.846Z","updated_at":"2023-09-02T03:02:03.846Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Inequality & Domination","description":"How some people grab more than &quot;enough&quot; for themselves…","slug":"inequality-and-domination","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":17,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"365b3f98-c978-4480-8866-eaf45807ab91","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":9999,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":81138,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":81138,"created_at":"2023-09-02T03:05:54.650Z","updated_at":"2023-09-02T03:05:54.650Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Public Reason","description":"How can humanity think productively as an anthology intelligence?…","slug":"public-reason","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":18,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"40c98051-aaef-4b64-bc64-697e78ccb423","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":9999,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":72175,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":72175,"created_at":"2023-07-02T18:47:44.038Z","updated_at":"2023-07-02T18:47:44.038Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Enlarging the Bounds of Human Empire","description":"A new book project?","slug":"enlarging-the-bounds-of-human-empire","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":10,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"2e717e08-c237-44e0-82e0-4c717fb01ef8","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":9999,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":79518,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":79518,"created_at":"2023-08-22T21:40:41.799Z","updated_at":"2023-08-22T21:40:41.799Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"SubTuringBradBot","description":"Trying to make a ChatBot that can come close to conducting office hours for people with questions about my book, &quot;Slouching Towards Utopia&quot;","slug":"subturingbradbot","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":12,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"fc599a81-e50c-4ab7-b5a7-132f8678bdd0","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":9999,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":79558,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":79558,"created_at":"2023-08-23T00:21:16.715Z","updated_at":"2023-08-23T00:21:16.715Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Macro Outlook","description":"My real-time guesses as to where the U.S.—& the world—economy is going…","slug":"macro-outlook","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":true,"sibling_rank":13,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":false,"email_from_name":"","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":false,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}},{"id":"434972ce-18df-4be5-92aa-02b805c4aad3","publication_id":47874,"sibling_rank":9999,"link_title":null,"link_url":null,"section_id":87779,"post_id":null,"is_hidden":null,"standard_key":null,"post_tag_id":null,"post":null,"postTag":null,"section":{"id":87779,"created_at":"2023-10-13T22:11:17.810Z","updated_at":"2023-10-13T22:11:17.810Z","publication_id":47874,"name":"Egregious Moderation","description":"A Substack Newspaper","slug":"egregious-moderation","is_podcast":false,"is_live":true,"is_default_on":false,"sibling_rank":19,"port_status":"success","logo_url":null,"hide_from_navbar":true,"email_from_name":"Egregious Moderation","hide_posts_from_pub_listings":true,"email_banner_url":null,"cover_photo_url":null,"hide_intro_title":false,"hide_intro_subtitle":false,"ignore_publication_email_settings":false}}],"contributors":[{"name":"Brad DeLong","handle":"delongonsubstack","role":"admin","owner":true,"user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","bio":"Author of Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the 20th Century, sometime Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, too online since 1995, UC Berkeley economic historian"}],"threads_v2_enabled":true,"viralGiftsConfig":{"id":"2dacc3cd-1a7f-4561-b4ba-87f8738ab244","publication_id":47874,"enabled":true,"gifts_per_user":5,"gift_length_months":1,"send_extra_gifts":true,"message":"Economic history, economics, political economy, finance, & forecasting. Here to try to make you (and me) smarter in a world with many increasingly deep & complicated troubles…","created_at":"2022-09-14T18:38:48.037057+00:00","updated_at":"2022-09-14T18:38:48.037057+00:00","days_til_invite":14,"send_emails":true,"show_link":null,"grant_email_body":null,"grant_email_subject":null},"tier":2,"no_follow":false,"no_index":false,"can_set_google_site_verification":true,"can_have_sitemap":true,"founding_plan_name_english":"Angels","draft_plans":[{"id":"yearly94_99usd","object":"plan","active":true,"aggregate_usage":null,"amount":9499,"amount_decimal":"9499","billing_scheme":"per_unit","created":1693178979,"currency":"usd","interval":"year","interval_count":1,"livemode":true,"metadata":{"substack":"yes"},"nickname":"$94.99 a year","product":"prod_OWwH7lVLtymo2B","tiers":null,"tiers_mode":null,"transform_usage":null,"trial_period_days":null,"usage_type":"licensed","currency_options":{"aud":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":15000,"unit_amount_decimal":"15000"},"brl":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":48000,"unit_amount_decimal":"48000"},"cad":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":13000,"unit_amount_decimal":"13000"},"chf":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":9000,"unit_amount_decimal":"9000"},"dkk":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":67500,"unit_amount_decimal":"67500"},"eur":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":9000,"unit_amount_decimal":"9000"},"gbp":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":8000,"unit_amount_decimal":"8000"},"mxn":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":167000,"unit_amount_decimal":"167000"},"nok":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":102000,"unit_amount_decimal":"102000"},"nzd":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":16000,"unit_amount_decimal":"16000"},"pln":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":42000,"unit_amount_decimal":"42000"},"sek":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":104000,"unit_amount_decimal":"104000"},"usd":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":9499,"unit_amount_decimal":"9499"}}},{"id":"monthly11_49usd","object":"plan","active":true,"aggregate_usage":null,"amount":1149,"amount_decimal":"1149","billing_scheme":"per_unit","created":1693178978,"currency":"usd","interval":"month","interval_count":1,"livemode":true,"metadata":{"substack":"yes"},"nickname":"$11.49 a month","product":"prod_OWwHC776iNqloX","tiers":null,"tiers_mode":null,"transform_usage":null,"trial_period_days":null,"usage_type":"licensed","currency_options":{"aud":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":1800,"unit_amount_decimal":"1800"},"brl":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":6000,"unit_amount_decimal":"6000"},"cad":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":1600,"unit_amount_decimal":"1600"},"chf":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":1100,"unit_amount_decimal":"1100"},"dkk":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":8500,"unit_amount_decimal":"8500"},"eur":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":1100,"unit_amount_decimal":"1100"},"gbp":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":1000,"unit_amount_decimal":"1000"},"mxn":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":20500,"unit_amount_decimal":"20500"},"nok":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":12500,"unit_amount_decimal":"12500"},"nzd":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":2000,"unit_amount_decimal":"2000"},"pln":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":5500,"unit_amount_decimal":"5500"},"sek":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":13000,"unit_amount_decimal":"13000"},"usd":{"custom_unit_amount":null,"tax_behavior":"unspecified","unit_amount":1149,"unit_amount_decimal":"1149"}}},{"id":"founding99999usd","name":"founding99999usd","nickname":"founding99999usd","active":true,"amount":99999,"currency":"usd","interval":"year","interval_count":1,"metadata":{"substack":"yes","founding":"yes","no_coupons":"yes","short_description":"Angels","short_description_english":"Angels","minimum":9499,"minimum_local":{"aud":14500,"brl":46500,"cad":13000,"chf":8500,"dkk":64500,"eur":9000,"gbp":7500,"mxn":162000,"nok":98000,"nzd":15500,"pln":37500,"sek":96500,"usd":9500}},"currency_options":{"aud":{"unit_amount":148000,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"},"brl":{"unit_amount":486000,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"},"cad":{"unit_amount":133500,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"},"chf":{"unit_amount":86000,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"},"dkk":{"unit_amount":679000,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"},"eur":{"unit_amount":91500,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"},"gbp":{"unit_amount":78500,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"},"mxn":{"unit_amount":1705000,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"},"nok":{"unit_amount":1027000,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"},"nzd":{"unit_amount":160000,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"},"pln":{"unit_amount":395000,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"},"sek":{"unit_amount":1015500,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"},"usd":{"unit_amount":100000,"tax_behavior":"unspecified"}}}],"base_url":"https://braddelong.substack.com","hostname":"braddelong.substack.com","is_on_substack":false,"podcastPalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[206,135,113],"population":140},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[120,55,55],"population":106},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[248,161,144],"population":229},"Muted":{"rgb":[167,92,86],"population":155},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[52,66,80],"population":13},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[177,123,112],"population":276}},"multiple_pins":true,"live_subscriber_counts":false},"post":{"id":139925682,"publication_id":47874,"title":"Morning Notes on December 19, 2023 on the Inflation Debate","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"morning-notes-on-december-19-2023","post_date":"2023-12-19T16:55:18.795Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"only_paid","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/morning-notes-on-december-19-2023","section_id":79558,"restacks":4,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[47874],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":"macro-outlook","section_name":"Macro Outlook","reactions":{"❤":16},"subtitle":"Largely a clarification-of-thought exercise for my own benefit…","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd77772e3-ec0e-4466-ad1f-d826d7717864_780x383.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":"","videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"Largely a clarification-of-thought exercise for my own benefit…","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"longer_truncated_body_json":null,"longer_truncated_body_html":null,"truncated_body_text":"Largely a clarification-of-thought exercise for my own benefit…","wordcount":2009,"postTags":[],"publishedBylines":[{"id":16879,"name":"Brad DeLong","handle":"delongonsubstack","previous_name":null,"photo_url":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","bio":"Author of Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the 20th Century, sometime Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, too online since 1995, UC Berkeley economic historian","profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-22T17:45:51.845Z","publicationUsers":[{"id":14551,"user_id":16879,"publication_id":47874,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":false,"publication":{"id":47874,"name":"Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality","subdomain":"braddelong","custom_domain":null,"custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"Economic history, economics, political economy, finance, & forecasting. Here to try to make you (and me) smarter in a world with many increasingly deep & complicated troubles…","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fde2453e-9c18-4560-82ca-8b77ae62ef5b_1280x1280.png","author_id":16879,"theme_var_background_pop":"#2096ff","created_at":"2020-05-20T03:47:08.732Z","rss_website_url":null,"email_from_name":"Brad DeLong, from Grasping Reality Newsletter","copyright":"Brad DeLong","founding_plan_name":"Angels","community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"enabled","language":null,"explicit":false}}],"twitter_screen_name":"delong","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":100,"primary_publication":{"id":47874,"subdomain":"braddelong","custom_domain_optional":false,"name":"Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fde2453e-9c18-4560-82ca-8b77ae62ef5b_1280x1280.png","author_id":16879,"handles_enabled":false,"explicit":false}}],"reaction":false,"reaction_count":16,"comment_count":8,"child_comment_count":7,"audio_items":[{"post_id":139925682,"voice_id":"en-US-JennyNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/139925682/tts/en-US-JennyNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"hasCashtag":false,"is_saved":false,"saved_at":null,"is_viewed":true,"restacked":false}}],"name":"John Quiggin","user_id":129542333,"photo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7f9b7b01-396c-4faf-9b41-9f1adccb859a_2225x2623.jpeg","user_bestseller_tier":null}}" data-component-name=“CommentPlaceholder”>

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality


Public Reason: A very, very nice piece indeed from Dan Drezner, from which I want to quote extensively. I believe that Drezner has Taibbi, Wolff, and Greenwald’s numbers. I would quibble, however, in that I do not think they are stopped clocks. Stopped clocks are stopped—not making excuses for and rapidly moving toward their full joining-up with neofascism:

Dan Drezner: Horseshoes and Hand Grenades and Neoconservatives and Contrarians <danieldrezner.substack.com/p/horseshoes…>: ’Never follow a “thought leader” after they have been right once…. Public intellectuals… knew a little about a lot… excellent critics. Thought leaders… know one big thing…. They stick with it…. Hammers [that] see the world as nothing but nails…. When a thought leader is right once, it is human nature to believe that they have puzzled out some fundamental insight that will lead to even more insights in the future. We know from Tetlock, however, that… thought leaders being right about something big twice in a row is a highly unlikely outcome…. 

The Matt Taibbis, Glenn Greenwalds, and Naomi Wolfs of the world… already had their thought leader moment in the sun… 20 years ago when they opposed the war in Iraq…. They cannot believe that the neoconservatives who erred in 2003 are being invited to appear on MSNBC rather than facing trial in The Hague. And so as the neocons drifted leftward, the contrarian right seemed more appealing to them…. 

As contrarian thought leaders they are delighted to rebel against the elites welcoming neoconservatives into their fold… by arguing that mainstream Democrats are worse than the MAGA folks, that Trump is simply not as bad as reported, when in fact he has been that bad and would be even worse…. After being right on Iraq… they have been proven wrong on Trump in every possible way. But… it is probably easier to keep being wrong and well paid. Who knows, that clock might stop again in the future and they could be right again. 

Or they will wonder, like Taibbi, how they got to where they are now…

Leave a comment


Journamalism: The best summary description and analysis of Michael Lewis’s catastrophic SBF-FTX flameout dumpster fire I have yet seen:

David Karpf: The chroniclers of the crypto collapse

The Future, Now and Then
The chroniclers of the crypto collapse
Sometimes you set out to write a book. You get deep into the research. You know the shape of it. You also have a contract with a press, an editor waiting for pages. And then events unfold. Like, y’know, the blockchain bubble economy of 2022 spirals out of control. Or an unqualified authoritarian demagogue is elected to the Presidency…
Read more

‘A review of Easy Money, Number Go Up and Going Infinite…. The last two chapters feature Lewis desperately trying to piece together how it all went wrong…. Lewis decides that Ray is a villain, and only Lewis himself is positioned to solve this great accounting mystery…. The last two chapters feature Lewis desperately trying to piece together how it all went wrong. He still has unfettered access to SBF. John Ray, who has been brought on as CEO to guide FTX through bankruptcy proceedings, refuses to talk to SBF. He decides that he knows people, and thinks SBF is, fundamentally, a crook. So Lewis decides that Ray is a villain, and only Lewis himself is positioned to solve this great accounting mystery….

The trouble is (1) SBF is a gifted liar, (2) SBF is lying to Lewis, (2) Lewis somehow never realizes that SBF might be lying to him, and (3) he thinks he can produce the real story of FTX without bothering with the rot at the heart of the crypto collapse.

Lewis eventually concludes that none of FTX’s money was actually missing—it was just hard to track down because of all those awful people who didn’t trust Sam Bankman-Fried to help them locate it. He places blame on everyone but SBF, his central character, his quirky financial genius. The book has immediately aged like curdled milk….

Every writer faces a choice when history veers in an unexpected direction. McKenzie and Silverman altered their book by adjusting the approach. Faux dove right in and surveyed the wreckage. Lewis carried on as though none of his operating assumptions had been challenged. Lewis chose the easy path. It resulted in a book that, if he’s fortunate, will eventually be forgotten.

Refer a friend


ONE VIDEO: Grindavík:

Give a gift subscription


ONE IMAGE: Mike Konczal Brings the Refreshments:

In the past two episodes I count as structural-adjustment inflations, we have the same sharp fall in inflation at low unemployment that we have had this year.

Get 33% off a group subscription


Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Neofascism: Ed Luce: Americans won’t be terrified into rejecting Trump <https://www.ft.com/content/5a119379-ae6e-4318-9897-942894780897>: ‘The way to win is to meet people’s anxieties on their own terms. It is the source of some concern that Biden has not yet found a way of doing that…. Both the following sentences are true: Trump is a mortal threat to the US republic; roughly half of the country does not believe that. It follows that Democrats need to find more compelling ways of asking people to vote for them…

  2. Governance: Sean Casten: ‘As I told folks at my townhall <https://www.threads.net/@seantcasten/post/C1E_1s_uC_m> last night, there is a governing bipartisan bloc in Congress. The bloc that passed the CHIPs Act is ~the same as the one that voted not to default on our debt (& to expel Santos). It includes all Ds and ~100 Rs…. To pass bipartisan legislation in this Congress, we’d need a Speaker willing to do the will of the majority of the members. And neither McCarthy nor Johnson have demonstrated the leadership skills; they are puppets of their wingnut wing. Or we could just put Dems in the majority, so that the governing majority in the House was matched by a governing majority in the majority party. Whether that’s easier or harder than finding a single GOP House member capable of leadership remains an open question…

  3. David French: ‘I completely understand the argument <https://www.threads.net/@davidfrenchjag/post/C1EAlxrOtwR> that Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment is undemocratic. I understand why people would be angry about that.But here’s a key constitutional point … The amendment is INTENTIONALLY anti-democratic. If the authors of the amendment trusted voters not to elect insurrectionists, they never would have drafted the amendment.This is a situation the amendment was designed for—when other guardrails failed, this amendment would still stand…

  4. Economics: Mike Konczal: Supply-Side Expansion Has Driven the Decline in Inflation <https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Supply-Side-Expansion-Has-Driven-the-Decline-in-Inflation-202309.pdf>: ‘Scenarios of entrenched, higher inflation are behind us. The majority of disinflation has been driven by expanding supply…. For 123 core PCE items, I find 73 percent of all core items, and 66 percent of services, see prices falling with quantities increasing—a sign of expanding supply…. Around a third of items could be described as moving straight down…. Supply expansion driving disinflation is even more true when it comes to categories that historically have a strong relationship with demand in the economy. The disinflation we’re seeing is therefore broad and could continue…

  5. Federal Reserve: Summary of Economic Projections December 13, 2023 <https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdf> & Summary of Economic Projections March 22, 2023 <https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20230322.pdf>…

  6. Robert Driskill: Ken Rogoff and higher interest rates <https://braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-noted-for-2023-12-08-fr/comment/45213470: ‘Along with Brad’s critique, let me suggest people read a 2018 IMF working paper (Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits, P. Barrett, WP18/22, 2018) and Ball, Elmendorf, Mankiw, JMCB Nov 1998, “The Deficit Gamble,” and of course the CBO’s “The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook.” First, CBO predicts real interest rate on U.S. debt will average 1.1%—and reach only 1.4% in 2053—over the next thirty years. That’s alongside their prediction that debt/GDP ratio grows to 1.81 by thirty years from now. “The deficit gamble” and Barrett’s paper document that r<g on average over a century and more—by on average between 1% and 2%. This is evidence (or facts)—not confirmation bias—that lower rate environments are not an anomaly but a persistent feature, and that the CBO believes there is a continuing sufficient appetite for the burgeoning supply of US treasuries into the next few decades. Sure, there are risks—not imminent ones, I would argue—associated with our current projected fiscal policies, but also real costs to cutting government benefits over the next few decades. How about less “fiscal fearmongering” and more “watchful waiting?”…

  7. Robert Armstrong Unhedged <https://www.ft.com/unhedged>: ‘Yesterday [December 14] the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4 per cent for the first time since July, as the market continues to process Wednesday’s pivot by the Federal Reserve. On the equity side, small-cap stocks continue to be the story: while the S&P 500 has shrugged, the Russell 2000 is up 6 per cent since Jay Powell started talking…

  8. Steven Greenhouse: How Corporations Crush New Unions <https://newrepublic.com/article/177557/trader-joes-union-busting-bargaining-table-first-contract>: ‘Bargaining-table negotiations over a first contract are never easy, but now they’re becoming excruciatingly slow and difficult. For companies like Trader Joe’s, that’s the goal…

  9. Neofascism: Noah Berlatsky: ‘Far right harassment in defense of fas[cism] is absolutely a thing on [SubStack] here. it’s harder to organize dogpiles because of the architecture, but not impossible, and if you poke the fascists by saying, “Nazis on the platform is bad” people will in fact target you… Scott Aaron Rogers: ‘On one hand, I’ve never had more engagement. On the other hand, it’s all Nazis… Toby Epstein: ‘You mean saying that having Nazi’s anywhere in this country, especially here, is bad gets one into trouble. Ahh,.. Joe Berger: ‘So proud! I got my very first swastika sent to me today on here! Even better, they told me they hope I have a heart attack. The enshitification is a real thing…

  10. Surgei Guriev: ‘Trump could not achieve <https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/could-trump-be-a-dictator> in the United States… what Orbán has achieved in Hungary, at least not nearly as quickly. But that is no reason for complacency. No one thought that the European Union could include an undemocratic regime until Orbán established one…. Mainstream politicians’ failure adequately to address the challenges of globalization, automation, and the rise of social media…. The number of populists in power around the world today is by far the highest in history, with most of them in the “right-wing authoritarian” camp. Trump’s victory is both dangerous and likely.

Donate Subscriptions


SubStack Posts:

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

Morning Notes on December 19, 2023 on the Inflation Debate

Largely a clarification-of-thought exercise for my own benefit…

Subscribe now


With adaptive expectations—inflation expectations for next year are what inflation has been in the past year—and with a Phillips curve slope of 0.4, unless you have favorable supply shocks it requires 2.5%-point years of excess unemployment above the natural rate in order to permanently reduce inflation by 1%-point.

That, I take it, was the framework that Larry Summers was using to analyze what was needed to control the post-plague reopening inflation.

He, in mid–2022, posited for his base case:

  • A natural rate of unemployment at 5%.

  • A reopening-inflation rate of 7% per year.

  • But associated with this only inflation expectations of 4% per year.

Hence to get inflation down to 2% would require elevating unemployment above 5% by a cumulative total of 5%-point-years, which could be accomplished, Summers said in mid–2022, by:

five years of unemployment above 5% to contain inflation—in other words, we need two years of 7.5% unemployment or five years of 6% unemployment or one year of 10% unemployment…. There are numbers that are remarkably discouraging relative to the Fed Reserve view…

Philip Aldrich of Bloomberg provided context:

Fed policy makers raised interested by 75 basis points on Wednesday [June 15, 2022], the biggest increase since 1994. In their accompanying outlook, they signaled they see inflation easing from above 6% today to below 3% next year and near 2% in 2024. The median forecast showed unemployment rising to 4.1% by 2024, from 3.6% in May…

And Summers then concluded:

The gap between 7.5% unemployment for two years and 4.1% unemployment for one year is immense. Is our central bank prepared to do what is necessary to stabilize inflation if something like what I’ve estimated is necessary?…

It would be – it was – only natural to wonder if 7.5% unemployment for two years was the price of getting inflation down from 4% to 2% per year, was that price worth paying? 

The parry was and is: That logic will always apply. If markets were to fix on the idea that that logic is likely to apply, then next year’s inflation expectations would not be last year’s actual inflation but, rather, last year’s actual inflation plus 1%-point. Then in order to maintain stable inflation at any level the unemployment rate would have to be permanently elevated by 2.5%-points above the sustainable natural rate. That would be an absolutely catastrophic situation. 

Share


Now I need to stress one point here: LARRY SUMMERS’S FEARS WERE NOT STUPID. THOSE RISKS WERE REAL. 

The Federal Reserve, however, moved quickly to deal with these fears. 

Even though I was an advocate of raising interest rates late, fast, and far, I was surprised by how fast and far the Federal Reserve moved once it concluded that it had bought sufficient insurance against a return of the secular-stagnation equilibrium. Inflation expectations never got unmoored from their 2% per year anchor—inflation expectations never became adaptive, let alone last-year-plus-one-percentage-point. Moreover, the Fed’s interest-rate increases had less of a depressing effect on the economy than I had feared, and whether by their skill or their luck we appear to have avoided recession and are nearly at the end of the glidepath to a soft macroeconomic landing. 

Much kudos to the Fed.

And, were I Larry Summers right now, I would say:

  • My fears were greatly overblown.

  • The Fed team of Powell-Brainard-Williams and company are either incredibly skilled at this or incredibly lucky.

  • And was it Napoleon who said he would rather have a general who was lucky than one who is skilled?

Larry, however, does not appear to be hitting that sweet spot right now.

A big part of the problem is that the way his worries got out into the world was garbled.

Larry’s fear was not that inflation would settle at 7% per year, and that expectations would rise as people expected that to continue. Larry’s fear was that 7% per year inflation would drag the expectations anchor so that inflation expectations would settle at 4% per year—and that it would be the need to get them down to 2% per year that would bring on the recession. But the way the world heard the fear was that he was scared that inflation would settle at 7% per year, permanently.

Hence from his perspective he is being completely reasonable when he says:

One should always have been aware that a substantial part of the increase in inflation was transitory. So no one should have thought that most of the route from 7 per cent to 2 per cent needed to be achieved in ways that were correlated with increases in unemployment…

But in my inbox I find a bunch of smart and usually reasonable people—along with some who are not so reasonable and not so smart—being furious:

  • Paul Krugman: “Economists who were wrongly pessimistic about inflation—most prominently Larry Summers, although he isn’t alone—remain unwilling to accept the obvious. Instead, they argue that the Fed, which began raising interest rates sharply in 2022, deserves the credit for disinflation. The question is, how is that supposed to have worked? The original pessimist argument was… a lot of unemployment…. As best I can tell, the argument now is that by acting tough the Fed convinced people that inflation would come down, and that this was a self-fulfilling prophecy…”

  • Claudia Sahm: “Larry Summers’s interview is like getting gaslit by a blowtorch…. Encouragingly (and unexpectedly), Larry Summers… acknowledges what others like me have said for some time…”

  • David Dayen: “How Larry Summers’s Bad Predictions Hurt the Planet: The clean-energy transition is faltering because of unexpectedly high interest rates, which Summers’s demands to slow down the economy helped usher in…”

And there are many, many more.

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality


My first reaction on reading these is that I do not understand how someone can argue about the Fed’s role in falling inflation without specifying a counterfactual.

The Federal Reserve sets short-term interest rates, buys and sells bonds, and uses its jawbone to provide forward guidance. Attributions of credit need to take the form of something like “The Fed decided to do X rather than Y and things have turned out well, as opposed to the Z that would have happened had the Fed done Y.” Without specifying the Y and the Z, no conversation has any chance of getting anywhere.

Behind Paul Krugman’s column there appear to be:

  • A Y in which the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates at all (or raised them much less and much more slowly).

  • A Z in which the economy managed to continue on pretty much the same track as it actually did even though interest rates would have been much lower over the past two years.

Now if that is indeed Krugman’s Z this week, I find it highly implausible. The Federal Reserve has hit the economy on the head with a very large and heavy interest-rate brick that (a) greatly reduced the incentive to spend on long-lived assets and projects for the distant future and (b) raised the value of the dollar, thus giving Americans and others a big incentive to switch from buying American to buying foreign goods. Yes, the track of production has been much the same as I had forecast back when I had penciled in the Fed raising interest rates a lot less. There are two ways to reconcile how the economy has followed my production-path forecast with much higher interest rates:

  1. Interest-rate increases no longer have significant effects on production.

  2. I was greatly underestimating how strong the American economy’s demand-side was, and thus underestimating how fast production was likely to grow had the Federal Reserve been much more moderate raising interest rates.

And then there is the unknowable part of the question: Did the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases play a substantial role in keeping inflation expectations anchored at 2% per year? If the Federal Reserve had kept policy hands-off, would inflation expectations have shifted upward? I find it plausible that they would have. But I have no evidence.

On the other hand, nobody else has evidence either.

Leave a comment


And now I see the wise and, as Claudia Sahm called him, “adorable” Olivier Blanchard responding to Paul on Twitter (but why on Twitter? Sharing a platform with Alex Jones in 2023 is not an especially good look):

If there is a “last mile” required to fully win the fight against US inflation, then indeed it will be a painful last mile. The wage Phillips curve is very flat: In layman terms, decreasing underlying inflation by even just 1% may require more unemployment for a while. The issue is whether there is indeed a last mile to run, or we have already run it, and things are just fine, as Paul Krugman tells us today in the NYT. It could be: It could be that the labor market is not as tight as it looks, and we do not need to increase unemployment. It could be that productivity growth is going to be higher, allowing for lower price inflation given wage inflation. We genuinely do not know. Better be careful in making victory or “need for more pain” statements…

I agree 100% with the “better be careful” sentiment.

But the statement that if there is a last mile:

indeed it will be a painful last mile. The wage Phillips curve is very flat… decreasing underlying inflation by even just 1% may require more unemployment for a while…

sneaks in the assumption that underlying inflation expectations are not certainly anchored at 2% per year, but instead might be higher by a percentage-point or two.

But how could inflation expectations have lost their anchor without it leaving traces in the bond market?:

Refer a friend

There was reason in the tracks of the bond-market inflation-breakeven in early 2022 to fear that confidence in the Federal Reserve’s commitment to return inflation to 2% per year was slipping away—but the Fed than acted: it brought down the brick, the hammer, and market expectations moved back to their “the Fed has got this!” configuration.

And unless underlying inflation expectations are elevated, a flat wage Phillips Curve is not a reason to think that higher unemployment might be in any sense “necessary” for any not-unreasonable purpose.

Give a gift subscription


Stepping back, I think one major thing going on is that Larry Summers tried to use the conceptual tool we call the Philips Curve, and it shattered in his hands—especially his (not unreasonable) belief that the Beveridge Curve had some slope. And so he expresses frustration:

it certainly hasn’t been a glorious period for the Phillips curve theory in any of its forms…. Inflation theory is in very substantial disarray, both because of the Phillips curve problems and because we don’t have a hugely convincing successor to monetarist-type theory…. Now that money pays interest, what the nominal quantity is, that is divided by a real quantity and sets the price level, is unclear…. Economics is embarrassingly short on clear, operational theories…

What I disagree with is his belief that sticking with a theory that is wrong is in some way preferable to retreating to a not-really-a-theory that might not be wrong:

The theory to which many economists are gravitating to is that the Phillips curve is basically flat, inflation is set by inflation expectations, and inflation expectations are set by the people who form inflation expectations. That’s a little bit like the theory that the planets go around the universe because of the orbital force. It’s kind of a naming theory rather than an actual theory…

Get 33% off a group subscription


References:

Donate Subscriptions

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

Are There Any Full Turing-Class Entities in the House?

Reasoning about ancien régime French aristocrat family relationships, House-of-Orléans edition. No. ChatGPT4 is not even close to being a proper full Turing-class entity. But the fact that it is so effective at mimicking our use of language and persuading us that it is a Turing-class entity should greatly shake our belief in our own intelligence—that we ourselves are Turing-class entities, rather than simply jumped-up monkeys trying to fake it in the hope that we can then persuade enough things we interact with that we make it…

Subscribe now


Share

Things like this from the very sharp and highly energetic Timothy B. Lee make me want to bang my head against the wall:

Timothy B. Lee: Google Gemini and the future of large language models:

Understanding AI
Google Gemini and the future of large language models
It’s hard to write about Gemini, Google’s new family of large language models, because the company has kept the most interesting details under wraps. Google published a 62-page white paper about Gemini, but the “Model Architecture” section is a scant four paragraphs long. We learn that “Gemini models build on top of Transformer decoders”—the same architecture used by other large language models—but not much more than that…
Read more

‘My guess—and at this point it’s only a guess—is that we’re starting to see diminishing returns to scaling up conventional LLMs. Further progress may require significant changes to enable them to better handle long, complex inputs and to reason more effectively about abstract concepts…

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality

This last phrase is utter bilge.

There is no way that conventional LLMs can “reason more effectively about abstract concepts” because they do not and cannot reason about abstract concepts at all.

They make one-word-ahead predictions.

They make them very plausibly.

But they do not make with enough accuracy and sophistication to create some patterns of emergence or supervenience that would make the words “concepts” and “reasoning” plausible descriptors of what they are doing.

Now do not get me wrong. It would be wonderful and exciting if ChatGPT4 had, in the process of learning to do one-word-ahead predictions, found somehow that an efficient way of doing this was to construct internal representations of abstract concepts and carry them around, reasoning about them—that a swapping of nouns turns “uncle” into “nephew”, that applying “son” twice produces “grandson”, and so on.

But there is absolutely no evidence anywhere that they are doing that.

If “Louis”, “Philippe”, and “Orleans” are in the mix, then there is a good chance ChatGPT4 will take a passage ending in Louis Philippe and recursively predict that the next tokens are , duc d’Orléans. And there is a good chance it will take a passage ending in Philippe, duc d’Orléans and recursively predict that the next tokens are (1640-1701). Louis Philippe, duc d’Orléans and Philippe, duc d’Orléans (1640-1701) are both token-strings relatively common in the training dataset.

However, there never was any personage as Louis Philippe, duc d’Orléans (1640-1701).

But ChatGPT4 is very happy to output that string.

Read more

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-18 Mo

GPT vs. bureaucracy; EMH fanatics lose the plot; Binyamin Netanyahu is not a victim here; a minimally prompted ChatGPT4 success; TED Talks enable Kathie Wood’s grifting; very briefly noted; & respect the judgment of the Federal Reserve!, Cyrus propagandizes; consequences for development of manufacturing’s delaborization, and BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-15…

Subscribe now


SubStack NOTES:

GPT-LLM-ML: Use as a natural-language interface to a reliable and ideally well-structured database is, I think, one of the use cases for LLM’s that is actually likely to be very useful soon. And Dave Guarino is on it!:

Dave Guarino: Using AI to make sense of policy documents <http://daveguarino.substack.com/p/using-ai-to-make-sense-of-policy>: ‘I’ve been experimenting with using AI to do “policy reasoning.” That’s because fundamentally this is what staff have to do to answer questions about often complicated and complex rules.…. I think… pairing a policy question in an end-user’s own language with the specific policy language that a government staff member would use to answer it… [is] of promise…. I am working on experimenting and evaluating more. There are definitely ways that this would need to be hardened to be used in something closer to a production (real users) environment. Though my first step would most likely be to have a human in the loop, with something like an email support desk or a content web site as the service channel. (That mitigates a lot of the risk of having it be instantaneous)…

Share


Economics: Somewhere along the road, orthodox finance economists lost the plot.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis was, originally: the market knows more than you do, and so you cannot “beat the market” in utility terms—if you do find a systematic way to “beat the market”, it will be because in the states of the world in which you receive high returns each unit of wealth is worth less to society than in the states of the world in which you receive low returns. You can benefit by holding other than the market portfolio if your rate of time preference is different from the market’s or if your tolerance for risk is different from the market’s or if your alternative portfolio aligns incentives. But you cannot beat the market.

But the returns to beta were never, plausibly, there because in the states of the world in which you receive high returns each unit of wealth is worth less to society than in the states of the world in which you receive low returns. And such claims for small vs. large, value vs. growth, robust vs. weak profitability, and conservative vs. aggressive on investment were an order of magnitude even more ludicrous.

So you can beat the market, by a lot over time, if you are patient and are willing to do five things systematically.

That is not an “Efficient Market Hypothesis”. That is a “Systematically Inefficient Market Hypothesis”. And only those for whom confusion is a friend and chaos is a ladder have any business calling it the EMH:

Market Sentiment <https://www.marketsentiment.co/p/great-expectations>: ‘Leverage Factors: The past 6 decades of data show us that 5 factors were able to explain 95% of the differences in returns between diversified portfolios (all figures are annualized). a. Market Risk (MKT-RF): The market beat one-month treasury bills by 5.37%. b. Size (SMB — small minus big): Small stocks beat large stocks by 2.04% c. Value (HML — high minus low): Value stocks beat growth stocks by 2.68%. d. Profitability (RMW — robust minus weak): Highly profitable companies outperformed weakly profitable companies by 2.8%. e. Investment (CMA — conservative minus aggressive): Companies that were conservative in asset growth beat aggressive growers by 2.93%. What this shows us in simple terms is that even if we believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis, certain factors would get us better results through long-term exposure rather than just sticking to market-cap-weighted index funds…

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality


War: There is something very, very wrong with Michael Ignatieff. Binyamin Netanyahu is not a person with limited options being “driven” “toward annexation and expropriation” by spoiler “settlers”. The the entire point of his government is to grab land. If, in the process, that gins up enough Arab rage to make the Israeli electorate reluctant to support more peace-oriented politicians—well, that is all to the good, from his perspective. The only thing he did not want was for so many Israeli civilians to die on October 7:

Michael Ignatieff: Universal Values at Bay <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/universal-declaration-human-rights-being-tested-in-middle-east-but-can-still-win-out-by-michael-ignatieff-2023-12>: ‘Peace can still be achieved through the mutual recognition of pain and loss, but not until the spoilers on both sides—the settlers rampaging the West Bank and driving Binyamin Netanyahu’s government toward annexation and expropriation, and the jihadist militants who want nothing but to destroy Israel—are beaten…

Leave a comment


ONE IMAGE: If There Is a Reliable Database ChatGPT4 Can Glom onto…

…or even a data table, it is getting pretty damned good:

Refer a friend


ONE VIDEO: Posted Simply as an Example of a Cognitive Denial of Service Attack by a Grifter…

…who believes that she can no longer bang the crypto drum to get money to fall out of people’s pockets:

Give a gift subscription


Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Journamalism: Jamison Foser: ‘The New York Times <https://mastodon.social/@foser/111601917680012953>, an absolute tire fire of a newspaper, publishes a guest essay portraying Donald Trump as a moderate, written by a guy [Matthew Schmitz] who is promoting the essay by saying it would be undemocratic to hold Trump legally accountable for his many crimes…

  2. Jamison Foser: Substackers Against Nazis <http://findinggravity.substack.com/p/substackers-against-nazis>: ‘I joined this campaign in large part because Substack is not, as it and its defenders claim, merely a platform passively hosting racist content. Substack and its leadership is actively promoting some of the most virulent racists around, like Richard Hanania. Don’t get fooled by the “it’s just a neutral platform refusing to censor people” rhetoric; it is in fact actively and intentionally promoting bigots…

  3. Economics: https://mastodon.social/@foser/111601917680012953 Thomas L. Hutcheson: ‘The truly depressing implications <https://substack.com/@thomaslhutcheson/note/c-45577875> of this is that while the “Royal Road” [to development via exporting low-wage manufactures] was open and wide, one needed only minimal good governance to get and stay on it, (cf China) To make the best of a more difficult path will require better governance, stricter adherence to the rule of law, more careful cost-benefit analysis of public investments, taxation with smaller dead-weight losses, transfers using non-leaky buckets, well-chosen Pigou taxes and subsidies [COP 28, take note]. In a word, “neoliberalism.” :)…

  4. UBS: The great wealth transfer <https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/display-page-ndp/en-20231130-the-great-wealth-transfer.html>: ‘For the first time… billionaires have accumulated more wealth through inheritance than entrepreneurship…. This is a theme we expect to see more of over the next 20 years, as more than 1,000 billionaires pass an estimated USD 5.2 trillion to their children…

  5. Dani Rodrik: Better Jobs Mean Better Development <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/services-not-manufacturing-must-become-source-of-middle-class-jobs-by-dani-rodrik-2023-12>: ‘Manufacturing industries are no longer the labor-absorbing sectors they used to be, and that is a big problem for developed and developing economies alike. Achieving sustainable, inclusive growth will now depend on creating opportunities in services – a sector not generally associated with good, productive jobs…

  6. Philip Koop: ‘The “policy” case <https://braddelong.substack.com/p/i-was-on-team-transitory-my-historical/comment/45502251> for the Fed to raise rates (as opposed to the political case… is a counterfactual: had the Fed not acted, we would have assumed that they would never act, and expectations of inflation would have become self-reinforcing. This is a plausible counterfactual but it is inaccessible…. You and Larry will go to your graves without every knowing whether Larry had a point… Thomas L. Hutcheson: ‘This is just a discussion about when the Fed should have started tightening. I don’t think Summers was all that clear about when HE though it should happen. And his message was further muddied by talking about the size of the Biden relief package instead of focusing on the Fed reaction to that and other shocks…

  7. Oks & Williamson: ‘With the global population outside of Africa entering a long era of slow growth or decline, and African population in the midst of a long and spectacular boom, the future of development and poverty reduction will hinge on the future of Africa. In the past, the exceptionally strong performances of East Asian economies have statistically compensated for less impressive results elsewhere, especially among the African economies—many of which, despite improvements in health, cannot be said to be meaningfully richer or more economically developed now than they were in 1980…

  8. Matthew Klein: Argentina and the Limits of Fiscal Space <http://theovershoot.co/p/argentina-and-the-limits-of-fiscal>: ‘“Anything we can actually do, we can afford” is an important and underrated insight. The corrollary is that acting as if you “can afford” what you cannot “actually do” leads to trouble….

  9. Literature: Henry Oliver: [Jane Austen’s] Persuasion should have been called Consequences <https://www.commonreader.co.uk/p/persuasion-should-have-been-called>: ‘Wentworth must learn how the world works…. Initially he thinks Anne was weak; by the end, he realises she was realistic. Anne is the only character who understands the equilibrium of social consequence, having a character of consequence, and the importance of considering the consequences of your actions…

  10. Berkeley Next Semester: Berkeley Academic Guide: ECON 115 001 - LEC 001 <https://classes.berkeley.edu/content/2024-spring-econ-115-001-lec-001>: ‘The World Economy in the Twentieth Century :: James Bradford Delong :: Jan 16 2024 - May 03 2024 :: TU, TH 8:00 am - 9:29 am :: Hearst Mining 390 :: Class #:17563 :: Units:4 :: Instruction Mode: In-Person Instruction Offered through Economics…. Sections: 101 M 1:00 pm Evans 4; 102 M 2:00 pm Evans 71; 103 Tu 11:00 am Evans 2; 104 Tu 10:00 am Evans 81; 105 W 4:00 pm Evans 4; & 106 W 5:00 pm Evans 4…

Get 33% off a group subscription


SubStack Posts:

https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":100}],"post_date":"2023-12-17T19:32:05.334Z","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52685eb0-2449-48c1-89ea-e19ded261f8b_696x399.png","cover_image_alt":null,"canonical_url":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/reading-cyrus-cylinder","section_name":null,"id":139851429,"type":"newsletter","reaction_count":0,"comment_count":0,"publication_name":"Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality","publication_logo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffde2453e-9c18-4560-82ca-8b77ae62ef5b_1280x1280.png","belowTheFold":true}">

Donate Subscriptions

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

DRAFT: The Federal Reserve Deserves Respect!

An early draft of a column for Project Syndicate, triggered by reading Mohamed El-Erian’s worries that the markets will “bully” the Fed into cutting interest rates…

Subscribe now


Share

The very wise Mohamed El-Erian, writing in the Financial Times, says::

Mohamed El-Erian: The Fed should resist market bullying <https://www.ft.com/content/7d252519-b2be-4258-9b97-774e86584901>: ’The more the central bank gives in to investor expectations for sizeable and early rate cuts in 2024 the more markets will press for an even more dovish policy stance…. The risk is that the Fed, uncomfortable with the disconnection between its forward policy guidance and market pricing, is pressured into policy actions that please markets but prove inconsistent longer-term with the central bank’s mandate. That would not be new. It played out in January 2019 with a policy U-turn when Powell unveiled new language that opened up the possibility that the next move in rates would be down…

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality

Apropos of this…

Read more

READING: Cyrus: Cylinder

Livius.org: Cyrus Cylinder Translation <https://www.livius.org/sources/content/cyrus-cylinder/cyrus-cylinder-translation/>: ‘based on Mordechai Cogan's, published in W.H. Hallo and K.L. Younger, The Context of Scripture. Vol. II: Monumental Inscriptions from the Biblical World (2003, Leiden and Boston), but has been adapted to Schaudig's edition with the help of Bert van der Spek.

Subscribe now

Share


[1] [When...] ...

[2] ... of the four quar]ters

[3] An incompetent person was installed to exercise lordship over his country.

[4] and [...] he imposed upon them.

[5] A counterfeit of Esagila he ma[de, and...]... for Ur and the rest of the cultic centers,

[6] a ritual which was improper to them, an [unholy] di[splay offering x x x without] fear he daily recited. Irreverently,

[7] he put an end to the regular offerings (and) he in[terfered  in the cultic centers; x x x he] established in the sacred centers. By his own plan, he did away with the worship of Marduk, the king of the gods,

[8] he continually did evil against Marduk's city. Daily, [...] without interruption, he imposed the corvée upon its inhabitants unrelentingly, ruining them all.

[9] Upon hearing their cries, the lord of the gods became furiously angry and [x x x] their borders; the gods who lived among them forsook their dwellings,

[10] angry that henote had brought them to Babylon. Marduk, the ex[alted, the lord of the gods], turned towards all the habitations that were abandoned and

[11] all the people of Sumer and Akkad, who had become corpses. He was reconciled and had mercy upon them. He examined and checked all the entirety of the lands, all of them,

[12] he searched everywhere and then he took a righteous king, his favorite, by the hand, he called out his name: Cyrus, king of Anšan; he pronounced his name to be king all over the world.

[13] He made the land of Gutium and all the Umman-mandanote bow in submission at his feet. And he{I.e., Cyrus.}} shepherded with justice and righteousness all the black-headed people,

[14] over whom henote had given him victory. Marduk, the great lord, guardian of his people, looked with gladness upon his good deeds and upright heart.

[15] He ordered him to go to his city Babylon. He set him on the road to Babylon and like a companion and a friend, he went at his side.

[16] His vast army, whose number, like water of the river, cannot be known, marched at his side fully armed.

[17] He made him enter his city Babylon without fighting or battle; he saved Babylon from hardship. He delivered Nabonidus, the king who did not revere him, into his hands.

[18] All the people of Babylon, all the land of Sumer and Akkad, princes and governors, bowed to him and kissed his feet. They rejoiced at his kingship and their faces shone.

[19] Lord by whose aid the dead were revived and who had all been redeemed from hardship and difficulty, they greeted him with gladness and praised his name.

[20] I am Cyrus, king of the world, great king, mighty king, king of Babylon, king of Sumer and Akkad, king of the four quarters,

[21] the son of Cambyses, great king, king of Anšan, grandson of Cyrus, great king, king of Anšan, descendant of Teispes, great king, king of Anšan,

[22] of an eternal line of kingship, whose rule Bêl and Nabu love, whose kingship they desire fot their hearts' pleasure. When I entered Babylon in a peaceful manner,

[23] I took up my lordly abode in the royal palace amidst rejoicing and happiness. Marduk, the great lord, /established as his fate (šimtu)\ for me a magnanimous heart of one who loves Babylon, and I daily attended to his worship.

[24] My vast army marched into Babylon in peace; I did not permit anyone to frighten the people of [Sumer] /and\ Akkad.

[25] I sought the welfare of the city of Babylon and all its sacred centers. As for the citizens of Babylon, [x x x upon wh]om henote imposed a corvée which was not the gods' wish and not befitting them,

[26] I relieved their weariness and freed them from their service. Marduk, the great lord, rejoiced over [my good] deeds.

[28] and in peace, before him, we mov[ed] around in friendship. [By his] exalted [word], all the kings who sit upon thrones

[29] throughout the world, from the Upper Sea to the Lower Sea, who live in the dis[tricts far-off], the kings of the West, who dwell in tents, all of them,

[30] brought their heavy tribute before me and in Babylon they kissed my feet. From [Babylon] to Aššur and (from) Susa,

[31] Agade, Ešnunna, Zamban, Me-Turnu, Der, as far as the region of Gutium, the sacred centers on the other side of the Tigris, whose sanctuaries had been abandoned for a long time,

[32] I returned the images of the gods, who had resided there,note to their places and I let them dwell in eternal abodes. I gathered all their inhabitants and returned to them their dwellings.

[33] In addition, at the command of Marduk, the great lord, I settled in their habitations, in pleasing abodes, the gods of Sumer and Akkad, whom Nabonidus, to the anger of the lord of the gods, had brought into Babylon.

[34] May all the gods whom I settled in their sacred centers ask daily

[35] of Bêl and Nâbu that my days be long and may they intercede for my welfare. May they say to Marduk, my lord: "As for Cyrus, the king who reveres you, and Cambyses, his son,

Share Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality


[36] The people of Babylon blessed my kingship, and I settled all the lands in peaceful abodes.

[37] I [daily increased the number offerings to N] geese, two ducks, and ten turledoves above the former offerings of geese, ducks, and turtledoves.

[38] [...] Dur-Imgur-Enlil, the great wall of Babylon, its de[fen]se, I sought to strengthen

[39] [...] The quay wall of brick, which a former king had bu[ilt, but had not com]pleted its construction,

[40] [...who had not surrounded the city] on the outside, which no former king had made, (who) a levy of work[men (or: soldiers) had led] in[to] Babylon,

[41] [... with bitumen] and bricks, I built anew [and completed th]eir [job].

[42] [... magnificent gates of cedar] with a bronze overlay, thresholds and door-sockets [cast in copper, I fixed in all] their [doorways].

[43] [x x x] An inscription with the name of Aššurbanipal, a king who had preceded [me, I s]aw [in its midst].

[44] [...]

[45] [...] for eternity.

Leave a comment


REFERENCE:

  • Cyrus: ca. -539. “An incompetent person was installed to exercise lordship…” Trans. Mordechai Cogan. In Hallo, William W., & K. Lawson Younger, eds.: 2003. The Context of Scripture: Volume II—Monumental Inscriptions from the Biblical World. Leiden: Brill. Pp. 314-6. <https://archive.org/details/the-context-of-scripture>

Subscribe now

Give a gift subscription

Musings on Manufacturing's Delaborization, & Development Strategy for the Next Two Generations

We can see approaching us the end of the export manufacturing-based Royal Road to successful economic development. So what straws should we grasp at?…

Subscribe now


Share

Let me try to think semi-systematically about what we can do to deal with whatever problems for future economic development are being created and will be intensified by the falling labor share in manufacturing.

Historically, a focus on boosting manufacturing—especially export manufacturing—as the Royal Road to economic development for a poor country (and back in the early 1800s all countries were poor countries) worked for five reasons:

  1. Manufacturing provided the most effective way to generate a sector in which unskilled labor released from agriculture could be highly productive elsewhere.

  2. Manufacturing was the most effective—perhaps the only—was to build the required community of engineering practice.

  3. Export manufacturing was a judo move to turn a disadvantage—poverty and low wages—into wealth via exploiting a comparative advantage in labor-intensive goods to earn the necessary wherewithal to buy producer goods in which so much of more advanced technologies were embodied.

  4. Export manufacturing enabled an economy to grasp the benefits of both state-led resource mobilization and market judgment about how to use resources productively by borrowing the demand of foreign middle classes as sources of market discipline.

  5. Specialization in elastic-demand manufactures enabled the capture of surplus for the domestic economy, while specialization in elastic-demand commodities let foreigners reap the lion’s share of surplus from productivity improvements.

(4) and (5) depend on (3), which is now almost gone. And (1) appears to be rapidly ebbing into insignificance as well. Only (2) seems secure, and a powerful factor for the next two generations.

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality

Let me expand:

Read more

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-15 Fr

Backups & robustness; firepower; smart glasses; Ballad of Lucy Gray Baird; Andromeda Galaxy; very briefly noted; & reflections on “Team Transitory”, trying to think about GPT-LLM-ML, SubStackers vs. Nazis, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-13 We…

Leave a comment


SubStack NOTES:

Attention-Info-Biotech Economy: Backup people! Backup your backups! And always remember: cloud storage is not a backup! And have a backup device as well (connects backup USB drive to main computer; goes and digs in box for antiquated laptop and plugs it in for its battery to charge):

Roger Shrimsley: My struggle to live without an iPhone—for two whole hours <https://www.ft.com/content/4392d0af-f6b9-459f-842e-69d7ecb046cf>: ‘Then came the horror. No email, no phone, contact numbers, no text, no X. I had also lost our mapping app. We were visiting our daughter at her new university digs and had no idea how to get there, or where she lived because the address was in my now irretrievable texts. I did not know her phone number, because who knows phone numbers these days?… I was off-grid for no more than two hours. And yet, in that period, I could not focus on anything else.  So, aside from the obvious point about the iniquity of Range Rovers and the fickleness of wives, this rammed home the lesson that I really have a dependency bordering on addiction…. We’ve all seen those thrillers where the hero has to drop off the grid to survive. In that instance, reader, I am doomed…

Give a gift subscription


War: I would like to remind Noah Smith that there were an awful lot of attrition battles in World War II—Moscow Nov 1941, Soviet counteroffensive Nov 1941-Feb 1942, Stalingrad Oct-Nov 1942, Moscow Nov 1942-Feb 1943, Normandy June-July 1944, WestWall Oct-Dec 1944, and so forth. In my view, something has to go badly wrong—usually, I think, air supremacy for the other side—for an attrition defense to become difficult for an industrial army. And that has been the rule since 1861. Remember, Sherman’s 1864 March through Georgia was only possible because John Bell Hood had taken the local Confederate field army and marched it off into Alabama and then Tennessee, thinking that Sherman would have no choice to follow:

Noah Smith: Some thoughts on where the war in Ukraine is headed <>: ‘In summer and fall of 2023, Ukraine tried to take back… territory, using tanks, mine-clearing vehicles, and other weapons provided by Western countries. This effort completely failed. The reason… is… modern-day weapons… are able to destroy armored vehicles very easily…. Rapid, tank-led blitzkriegs that defined World War 2 are mostly a thing of the past, at least without overwhelming airpower. Land war has sort of gone back to what it was in WW1—a slow grinding fight for small bits of territory where firepower and resources matter more than brilliant maneuvers…. If the war ended tomorrow, it would be a… successful independence struggle and nation-defining episode for Ukraine…. A lot of Ukrainians would be mad that 18% of their country was still occupied by the Russians, of course, and would resolve to get it back at a later date…. The real danger is if the West cuts off Ukraine aid, and Putin eventually manages to conquer all of Ukraine…. The task of supporting Ukraine for the long term now falls to Europe…

Donate Subscriptions


GPT-LLM-ML: The idea is that answering your questions about the context and background of what you are currently looking it is likely—likely—to be something that these tools can do without hallucinating too much, and that people will be willing to pay for. The alternative at the moment seems to be “AI” tools as a better version of Microsoft’s infamous Clippy—and, save for programming copilots, that seems even further out of our current reach as opposed to the sweet spot we are aiming for. But new device categories are very rare: the PC, the Macintosh (if you call that really different from the text-on-green-screen PC, the smartphone, the tablet (sort of), the digital watch, the airpod… Notice anything about these genuinely-useful device categories?:

Erin Woo, Jon Victor, & Anissa Gardizy: OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft Chase Wearable AI <https://www.theinformation.com/articles/tech-giants-chase-wearable-ai>: ‘It’s a vision many of the companies have discussed or worked on for years, but they have a new reason to think they can pull it off: the sudden rise of multimodal AI that understands drawings, charts, objects and hand gestures in addition to text and audio. For instance, OpenAI recently discussed embedding its object recognition software, known as GPT-4 with Vision, into products from Snapchat’s parent company…

Subscribe now


ONE AUDIO: Rachel Zegler: Ballad of Lucy Gray Baird:

Best riff EVAR on “Streets of Laredo”…

Share


ONE IMAGE: Andromeda Galaxy:

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality


Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Economics: Larry Summers: We haven’t nailed the landing yet <https://www.ft.com/content/59fff67e-b136-4435-89e1-2400b90f4b83>: ‘Look at underlying inflation rates… some… are still running well above 2 per cent. If inflation is currently at 2 per cent, it’s not clear that it won’t go back up again. And it isn’t clear that the landing has been soft… declining flows of credit, inverted yield curves, aspects of consumer behaviour… credit strains… raise the possibility that the landing won’t be soft…. The landing may be hard, and we may overfly.  That said… hav[ing] inflation above 4 per cent and unemployment below 4 per cent, and you extricate from that situation without a recession… has never happened before in the United States…. And it certainly looks in play as a possibility…. Primary credit should be given to the Fed for having acted relatively rapidly to correct its earlier errors…. The Fed in 2022 raised rates very sharply in a way that did not take place during the Vietnam period. So I think that, ironically, if team transitory proves to be vindicated, it will only be because their policy advice was not taken. It will be because the Fed moved strongly enough that [inflation] expectations never became unanchored…

  2. Robert Armstrong: Unhedged <https://www.ft.com/unhedged?emailId=d33ed32e-9834-4c37-8928-5c7ec9fa95c5&segmentId=38af067e-f67a-09ef-7f9d-cb40b4153a58>: ‘Yesterday the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4 per cent for the first time since July, as the market continues to process Wednesday’s pivot by the Federal Reserve. On the equity side, small-cap stocks continue to be the story: while the S&P 500 has shrugged, the Russell 2000 is up 6 per cent since Jay Powell started talking…

  3. Michael Strain: The Myth of the 1% <https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-must-focus-on-ordinary-workers-wages-not-top-earners-income-share-by-michael-r-strain-2023-12>: ‘Income inequality across all households… accounting for taxes and government transfers… increased by 29% between 1979 and 2007, but then fell by more than 5% between 2007 and 2019…. Even though inequality was rising in the 1990s, average wages were also increasing; Americans were not concerned about whether they were growing faster for some groups than for others. But after the 2008 financial crisis, average wages… fell so sharply… that it took until 2014 for the median real wage to recover its 2007 level. This prolonged period of wage stagnation fomented anger and a sense of injustice—of a “rigged” economic game—which gave rise to populism. The lesson is clear: people care about how they themselves are doing, and not about a group of people with whom they seldom interact. People are not as dripping with envy as the debate over inequality would have you think…

  4. Maurice Obstfeld: Natural and Neutral Real Interest Rates: Past and Future: ‘The decline in real interest rates in advanced and emerging economies… [was driven by] a range of global factors that have operated with different force in different periods…. Estimates of long-run equilibrium real rates (r̄) may not always furnish an accurate guide to the rate appropriate for short-term monetary policy (r*)…. Monetary should consider not only equilibrium in the market for domestic goods, but also the current account balance, financial conditions (including capital flows), and imperfect policy credibility…. The main underlying factors that have pushed real interest rates down since the 1980s and 1990s—notably demographic shifts, lower productivity growth, corporate market power, and safe asset demand relative to supply—do not appear poised to reverse strongly enough to drive a big and durable rise in global real interest rates over the coming years. Low equilibrium interest rates may well continue periodically to bedevil monetary policy and financial stability…

  5. Justin Wolfers: ‘Fed statement <https://www.threads.net/@justinwolfers/post/C0zh50NJv8P>: No change in rates…. The Fed is more convinced that real activity is slowing…. It’s a moderately dovish statement, explaining the shift away from a tightening bias…. 2023 numbers: This was a year that delivered (much!) slower inflation than anticipated, even as growth was quite a bit stronger than expected…. Not really a miracle… [but] what you would expect from an economy experiencing a positive supply shock…. [With] the so-called “dot plot” tells us where the Fed expects interest rates to go… we see the admission that interest rates have gone as high as they’re going, and at some point in 2024 we’ll see two, three or four rate cuts.Moreover, the Fed is also penciling in a bunch more rate cuts through 2025. Read this as saying: As soon as we’re convinced inflation is back down to 2%, we’ll start cutting rates, maybe even pretty aggressively…. Also, notice the Fed is expecting rates (eventually) returning to 2.5%. There’s been some talk that the neutral rate may have risen, but the Fed ain’t buying it…

  6. Tim Duy: Fed Watch: ‘We predicated our pivot at the beginning of November to a March rate cut on the recognition that with inflation coming down faster than anticipated, the Fed would circle back to protecting the employment side of the mandate…. The Fed validated our pivot…. The totality of the FOMC outcomes was more dovish than markets anticipated, and this week’s inflation data likely pushed the Fed over the edge in that direction…

  7. Public Reason: Hannah Arendt (1971): Lying in Politics <https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1971/11/18/lying-in-politics-reflections-on-the-pentagon-pape/>: ‘The extreme fringe had the unhappy inclination of denouncing as “fascist” or “Nazi” whatever, often quite rightly, displeased them, and of calling every massacre a genocide, which obviously it was not; this could only help to produce a mentality that was quite willing to condone massacre and other war crimes so long as they were not genocide…

  8. Timothy Burke: The News: Well, How Did They Get There? <http://timothyburke.substack.com/p/the-news-well-how-did-they-get-there>: ‘Kathryn Joyce and Jeff Sharlet’s essay “Losing the Plot” on left-wing intellectuals and writers who end up in the company of the far right, travelling a “horseshoe” arc…. People… certain that only economic hierarchy… matters…. When… the ‘left’ seems to them to be consumed by cultural issues… they decide that there must be something wrong with the left…. The other kind of person who makes this sort of “horseshoe move”… is just chasing the transgressive pot of gold at the end of any political rainbow…. People [who] make the horseshoe loop… were always foredoomed to do so…. [Eugene] Genovese was always driven by a bleak loathing for Northern critics of the slave-holding South because he saw them as the tribunes of an even worse industrial capitalist order…. It’s… [the] affective orientation…. The person who… [thinks] they are the master chef and we are all the eggs that must be broken… does not believe in a better world. The person who wants to be harder than the rest of us… does not believe in a better world. The person who writes about Goldman Sachs as a vampire squid but whose defense against charges of misogyny was that he hates everybody is not dreaming of a better world…

  9. Human Capital: Daniel W. Drezner: You Could Not Pay Me Enough to Be a College Administrator <https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/you-could-not-pay-me-enough-to-be>: ‘The primary job of any college dean or university president is to deal with the most spoiled, entitled, pig-headed interest groups imaginable. First, there are the students…. If the students are bad, the tenure-stream faculty are worse…. The lower-level administrators, the folks charged with actually making sure the trains run…. Both students and faculty treat them as the lowest of the low…. This can lead to extreme surliness…. Woe to the senior university administrator who crosses the folks who manage all their necessary but byzantine paperwork…. The alumni, the donors, and the state…. College presidents and school deans have two jobs: 1) raise money; and 2) find ways to appease students, faculty, administrators, alumni, donors, and the state. The one trait all these interest groups share is a powerful sense of entitlement in telling university presidents and college deans exactly how to do their jobs…

  10. GPT-LLM-ML: Dan Shipper & Linus Lee: How an AI Researcher Uses
    ChatGPT and Notion AI <https://every.to/chain-of-thought/how-an-ai-researcher-uses-chatgpt-and-notion-ai>: ‘Using AI to maximize agency…. AI as a “thought calculator.”…Personal prototypes…. Better prompting….. Using AI for vibe checks…. Book recommendations…

Give a gift subscription


SubStack Posts:

https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":100}],"post_date":"2023-12-14T20:04:13.193Z","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08e5200d-383f-47e2-8fd4-a7dcb888aaa6_874x469.png","cover_image_alt":null,"canonical_url":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/where-asymptote-trying-to-think-about","section_name":"Enlarging the Bounds of Human Empire","id":139785569,"type":"newsletter","reaction_count":18,"comment_count":7,"publication_name":"Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality","publication_logo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffde2453e-9c18-4560-82ca-8b77ae62ef5b_1280x1280.png","belowTheFold":true}">

Donate Subscriptions

Get 33% off a group subscription

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

HOISTED FROM THE INTERNET OF LONG AGO: Cosma Shalizi (2010): The Singularity in Our Past Light-Cone

<http://bactra.org/weblog/699.html>

Subscribe now


Share

The Singularity has happened; we call it "the industrial revolution" or "the long nineteenth century". It was over by the close of 1918:

  • Exponential yet basically unpredictable growth of technology, rendering long-term extrapolation impossible (even when attempted by geniuses)? Check.

  • Massive, profoundly dis-orienting transformation in the life of humanity, extending to our ecology, mentality and social organization? Check.

  • Annihilation of the age-old constraints of space and time? Check.

  • Embrace of the fusion of humanity and machines? Check.

  • Creation of vast, inhuman distributed systems of information-processing, communication and control, "the coldest of all cold monsters"? Check; we call them "the self-regulating market system" and "modern bureaucracies" (public or private), and they treat men and women, even those whose minds and bodies instantiate them, like straw dogs.

  • An implacable drive on the part of those networks to expand, to entrain more and more of the world within their own sphere? Check. ("Drive" is the best I can do; words like "agenda" or "purpose" are too anthropomorphic, and fail to acknowledge the radical novely and strangeness of these assemblages, which are not even intelligent, as we experience intelligence, yet ceaselessly calculating.)

Why, then, since the Singularity is so plainly, even intrusively, visible in our past, does science fiction persist in placing a pale mirage of it in our future? Perhaps: the owl of Minerva flies at dusk; and we are in the late afternoon, fitfully dreaming of the half-glimpsed events of the day, waiting for the stars to come out.

Share Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality


Manual trackback: Gearfuse; Random Walks; Text Patterns; The Daily Dish; The Slack Wire; Making Light (I am not worthy! Also, the Nietzsche quote is perfect); J. S. Bangs; Daily Grail; Crooked Timber; Peter Frase; Blogging the Hugo Winners; The Essence of Mathematics Is Its Freedom; der Augenblick; Monday Evening; The Duck of Minerva (appropriately enough); Long Story, Short Pier ["the owl flies at dusk; it is always dusk; we can no longer tell a black thread from a white"]; Wis[s]e Words; Science Not Fiction; Anniceris; M. John Harrison; Mathbabe; International Studies Quarterly 57 (2013): 637--639 [!]; Brad DeLong; Market Failure; Kellan Sparver

Refer a friend




My Comment: Without a doubt, the life of the typical human being did indeed go through a Singularity, although for most of the world, it was sometime after 1918. The shift to today’s world from the illiterate agrarian world, with infant and early childhood mortality at 40%, and most people spending most of their lives seeing the same hundred people in the village—that was a huge transformation.

But can we say the same thing about élite, urban, literate culture? Are the lives of those of us who when young go to places like Harvard after 1950 so qualitatively different from the lives of those who went to Oxford in 1850 or 1550 or 1250, or those who were sent off from Rome to Athens or Rhodes in -100 to gain a little polish, or those who were trained to be scribes under Ramesses II, Sargon of Akkad, or Gilgamesh? And how different was the life of the non-literati élite—those who were not tame accountants, bureaucrats, and propagandists living off of the surplus extracted by the domination-and-exploitation machine that made agrarian-age societies nearly as unequal as possible, but the thugs with spears, specialists in coercive violence, and givers of commands themselves?

Once people learn to read and stories start being told, I see great continuity from Gilgamesh all the way up to Gutenberg. That great continuity in élite material life and mental world does go along with increasing élite wealth, comfort, and sophistication: there are so many more things you can read in 1400 than there were in -2500, after all. There was a four-fold amplification of my H, my crude value of the stock of useful and productive human ideas index.

Was Gutenberg a singularity for the literati? And for the non-literati élite? I need to think about this more. And I need to think about the material and mental worlds of the non-literati élite as well…

Leave a comment

Subscribe now

I Was on "Team Transitory": My Historical Perspective Made Me Smarter

Preliminary thoughts provoked by reading Larry Summers about inflation & soft landings, and talking to Gabriel Mangabeira Unger about changing economic structures & macroeconomic outcomes…

Subscribe now


I Was on “Team Transitory”. My historical perspective has, I think, made me much smarter than the majority of my peers in analyzing inflation so far this decade. I was not hypnotized into ignoring the reality outside my window by being unable to think of analogies and models other than “we are repeating the inflation of the 1970s”.

However, writing as a card-carrying member of Team Transitory, I must admit that I was substantially alarmed when the Federal Reserve kept raising rates in and after August 2022, after short rates broke above 2.5%/year nominal.

It seemed to me that it was running unwarranted and unnecessary risks of pushing the economy into recession, and possibly back into a depressed low-activity secular-stagnation zero interest-rate trap that it would be impossible to get out of in a timely fashion. Shifting from an inflation-indexed real ten-year rate of -1.0%/year to one of 0.5%/year seemed to me to be substantial monetary contraction. In view of the fiscal contraction already then in play, the prudent move seemed to me to pause, wait, and see what effect the Fed’s policy moves from January through July 2022 would have, and let the “long and variable lags” work out.

Share

Thus a define point to Larry Summers, when he says: “ironically, if team transitory proves to be vindicated, it will only be because their policy advice was not taken…” The underlying expansionary momentum of nominal aggregate demand turned out to be much stronger than I would have imagined, and had the Federal Reserve paused Federal Funds-rate increases starting in August 2022, it would almost surely have seen significantly worse inflation news after that, had to restart the increases in or before the summer of 2023, and we would not now be quibbling about how this-or-that suggests that we are not certainly on a “soft landing” glide path:

Larry Summers: We haven’t nailed the landing yet <https://www.ft.com/content/59fff67e-b136-4435-89e1-2400b90f4b83>: ‘Look at underlying inflation rates… some… are still running well above 2 per cent. If inflation is currently at 2 per cent, it’s not clear that it won’t go back up again. And it isn’t clear that the landing has been soft… declining flows of credit, inverted yield curves, aspects of consumer behaviour… credit strains… raise the possibility that the landing won’t be soft…. The landing may be hard, and we may overfly.  That said… hav[ing] inflation above 4 per cent and unemployment below 4 per cent, and you extricate from that situation without a recession… has never happened before in the United States…. And it certainly looks in play as a possibility…. Primary credit should be given to the Fed for having acted relatively rapidly to correct its earlier errors…. The Fed in 2022 raised rates very sharply in a way that did not take place during the Vietnam period. So I think that, ironically, if team transitory proves to be vindicated, it will only be because their policy advice was not taken. It will be because the Fed moved strongly enough that [inflation] expectations never became unanchored…

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality

Read more

Where Asymptote?: Trying to Think About GPT-LLM-ML

GPT-LLM-ML: Smart observations from Matt Friedman on Ben Thompson’s StraTECHery podcast:

Nat Friedman: The Human Component of AI <https://stratechery.com/2023/an-interview-with-nat-friedman-and-daniel-gross-about-the-human-component-of-ai/>: ‘The central question of AI right now is… is the asymptote…. If it’s near and not too much higher, then this is a transformative technology… gold rush… something normal… Browser Wars 2.0 or something like that…. If we’re not near an asymptote… then it’s hard to know what happens next, and we’re probably going to have a very different civilization…. Online… over the last 15 years or so… [was among many other things] a reordering [of] our society at the fundamental genetic level in terms of how people meet and pair, and I think we can expect AI to do some version of that in any scenario…. No one knows…. Intelligence in people is a purely material phenomenon…. If you believe in human ingenuity and the techno-capital machine… you have to believe we’ll get better and better at replicating this physical-intelligence process… and [eventually] exceed… human capacity…. The question is, “How soon is it?” and, “What’s the gap?”…. With new innovations and the next level of scale and huge new investments, we’ll probably continue to see growth, and whether it asymptotes or not, or when, hard to say…

Subscribe now

Back up. Modern “AI” is, I now think, seven things. And calling it “AI” is a source of confusion. It is not “artificial intelligence”. It is Transformer models, large-language models, and machine-learning models. And the seven things are:

  1. Auto-complete for everything on ‘roids.

  2. The post-crypto boom way of separating gullible VCs from their money for the benefit of engineers, speculators, utopians, and grifters.

  3. Very large-scale very high-dimension regression and classification analysis.

  4. Natural-language interface to databases–so far, specifically, databases of coding examples.

  5. The intersectional combination of (3) and (4) surveying the internet, in the form of ChatGPT, DALL-E, and so forth.

  6. Highly verbal electronic-software pets, and coaches.

  7. The latest of the so-many outbreaks of American religious cults that we have seen regularly since the First Great Awakening of Jonathan Edwards and George Whitefield in the 1730s.

Share

To expand:

Read more

REPOSTED: SubStackers Against Nazis

I agree with this 100%. The proper number of Nazi-propagandist SubStacks is ZERO. Where, exactly, the line is between “a hands-off approach and putting your thumb on the scale” via algorithm is something we can discuss. But I am not interested in any more discussions with anyone who thinks that line is anywhere near Nazi propaganda like “Jewish Question” or “Great Replacement”…

From Dan Drezner. I endorse:

Drezner’s World
Substackers Against Nazis
Hi readers—Below is a letter to the Substack founders that I helped draft as part of a group of publishers seeking answers to questions about the platforming and monetizing of Nazis. We are all publishing the letter on our own individual Substacks today for visibility, and to make our readers aware of our asks and concerns. Thanks for reading…
Read more

Dear Chris, Hamish & Jairaj:

We’re asking a very simple question that has somehow been made complicated: Why are you platforming and monetizing Nazis

According to a piece written by Substack publisher Jonathan M. Katz and published by The Atlantic on November 28, this platform has a Nazi problem:

Some Substack newsletters by Nazis and white nationalists have thousands or tens of thousands of subscribers, making the platform a new and valuable tool for creating mailing lists for the far right. And many accept paid subscriptions through Substack, seemingly flouting terms of service that ban attempts to ‘publish content or fund initiatives that incite violence based on protected classes’…Substack, which takes a 10 percent cut of subscription revenue, makes money when readers pay for Nazi newsletters.

As Patrick Casey, a leader of a now-defunct neo-Nazi group who is banned on nearly every other social platform except Substack, wrote on here in 2021: “I’m able to live comfortably doing something I find enjoyable and fulfilling. The cause isn’t going anywhere.” Several Nazis and white supremacists including Richard Spencer not only have paid subscriptions turned on but have received Substack “Bestseller” badges, indicating that they are making at a minimum thousands of dollars a year.

From our perspective as Substack publishers, it is unfathomable that someone with a swastika avatar, who writes about “The Jewish question,” or who promotes Great Replacement Theory, could be given the tools to succeed on your platform. And yet you’ve been unable to adequately explain your position. 

In the past you have defended your decision to platform bigotry by saying you “make decisions based on principles not PR” and “will stick to our hands-off approach to content moderation.” But there’s a difference between a hands-off approach and putting your thumb on the scale. We know you moderate some content, including spam sites and newsletters written by sex workers. Why do you choose to promote and allow the monetization of sites that traffic in white nationalism? 

Your unwillingness to play by your own rules on this issue has already led to the announced departures of several prominent Substackers, including Rusty Foster and Helena Fitzgerald. They follow previous exoduses of writers, including Substack Pro recipient Grace Lavery and Jude Ellison S. Doyle, who left with similar concerns. 

As journalist Casey Newton told his more than 166,000 Substack subscribers after Katz’s piece came out: “The correct number of newsletters using Nazi symbols that you host and profit from on your platform is zero.” 

We, your publishers, want to hear from you on the official Substack newsletter. Is platforming Nazis part of your vision of success? Let us know—from there we can each decide if this is still where we want to be.

Signed, 

Substackers Against Nazis


Thanks for reading. If this letter resonates, please share this post with others. If you’re a publisher who would like to join this collective effort, we encourage you to repost the letter on your own Substack.


Platformer
The AGs reveal their hand against Meta
On October 24, 41 states and the District of Columbia sued Meta. Attorneys general alleged that the company hurts younger users by intentionally designing addictive and harmful products at the expense of their privacy and well being. At the time, the lawsuits’ merits were difficult to asses…
Read more

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-13 We

Market economies lack sufficient information-transmission bandwidth (& so does everything else); Turchin & Nefedov on decline and fall; Yglesias on moderate Democrats wandering in the wilderness; training for a concert tour; King Phillip’s War; Very Briefly Noted; & E.P. Thompson & the deluded followers of Joanna Southcott, & BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-12-09 Sa…

Subscribe now


SubStack NOTES:

Economics: The debate over capitalism vs. socialism—decentralized market vs. central planning—was indeed won in the 1920s by the capitalist side, plus Pigou: the market solved the twin problems of information transfer and utilization and incentivization in a way that central-planning simply could not. Thus rather than central-plan everything, you only needed to impose Pigovian taxes and subsidies to correct for externalities, maintain competition, ensure proper aggregate demand, and tweak the distribution of income, and all would be for the best in the best of all possible worlds. Central planning could be relegated to wartime and rapid-development cases in which the overwhelming need was for immediate resource mobilization. But even if the mercenary market institution is—if it can be properly tweaked—better than central command or bureaucracy, is it good enough? We economists should be thinking much more about building alternative institutions with, as Dan Davies says, “higher bandwidth”:

Dan Davies: The Lawson Doctrine <http://backofmind.substack.com/p/the-lawson-doctrine>: ‘Where did it all go wrong? Lots of places, of course, in different ways and at different times. But the British economy, in the period from about 1986 to 1992 is on my mind…. The “ Lawson Doctrine ”… that current account deficits… are only a problem if they are accompanied by public sector budget deficits. If they aren’t, then they must have arisen as a result of private sector firms’ and households’ investment and spending decisions, and consequently they are likely to be, to use the phrase of the time “benign and self-correcting”…. If the market worked, the Lawson Doctrine would have worked. The point of the Hayekian economy as information processor is that whenever a private sector transaction happens, information is transmitted through the supply and demand mechanism, and then incorporated into the price mechanism…. The Lawson Doctrine failed because the globalised trade and capital markets of the 1980s were not able to transmit enough information at a fast enough rate. Using the word in its strictest sense—the one which your internet service provider uses in its advertisements—it didn’t have enough bandwidth…

Share


Economic History: Is it in fact the case that once an agrarian civilization starts to lose resources, it is headed for collapse or near-collapse? It is certainly true that something must make the élite accept life on a reduced total resource base—either conquest and wholesale élite turnover, major winnowing via civil war, purges, or gatekeeping accession to élite status—and that all such methods impose further burdens. But, at least as I read it, “fall” proper is confined to the end of the Bronze Age, the Maya, and to the Roman provinces of Britain, Germany, Gaul, and (perhaps) Spain. Decline is common. Fall not:

Peter Turchin & Sergey A. Nefedov: Secular Cycles <https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691136967/secular-cycles>: ‘A gentlemen living on £10–20 a year who was employing only three servants and lived in one house, and whose meals were devoid of much luxury in terms of wine and spices, had little room to maneuver when his income plunged by up to 50 percent in the mid-fifteenth century: “They must have cut back, or even cut out completely, their occasional wine-bibbings, and avoided travel whenever possible, but too many economies of this kind might force them to drop out of the aristocracy and accept yeoman status” (Dyer 1989:108). In summary, a number of social mechanisms exist by which  elite surpluses can be reduced: (1) deaths resulting from civil war, (2) deliberate purges of elites by new rulers, (3) limitations imposed on heir production… [Turchin, Peter, and Sergey A. Nefedov. 2009. Secular Cycles. Princeton: Princeton University Press. <https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691136967/secular-cycles>.]

Share Brad DeLong’s Grasping Reality


Public Reason: Matt Yglesias sets out his theory of the world. What do I think? I think he says a lot that makes a good deal of sense, but that his underlying belief that moderate Democrats need to do something to get back into the driver’s seat is awry.

As I say: it is not our turn to lead. It will not be our turn to lead until we have negotiating partners with powerful political and policy mojo near us on the right. We do not. To our right, is first, rubble; second, more rubble; third, more rubble; and then, fourth, pluto-kleptocracy; and, beyond that, neofascism.

Thus the attitude of moderate Democrats to the Left should not be to say “no”—the system as a whole says that. It is to let the Left run with the baton, but try to make a path so that when circumstances allow Left proposals can actually be enacted and then cemented into America’s institutions:

Matt Yglesias: ‘The fourth year of Slow Boring, a good time to take stock of both the trajectory of the site and the broader political circumstances…. I’m truly grateful…. Thank you all. The basic political problem: Slow Boring has prospered, but I think that only underscores the need for more complex forms of institution-building. Because while I absolutely, 100 percent believe in the importance of takes in shaping the world of political possibilities, it’s also clear to me that certain things can only be achieved by something more tangible than columns…. [1] Donald Trump is a corrupt, authoritarian menace… whose fundamental lack of shame or principle risks inflicting massive long-term damage on the country. [2] The Democratic Party… does not have a realistic plan for winning senate majorities and governing…. [3] America’s blue states are wealthy and in some ways prospering… [but] are not systematically delivering the progressive goods in terms of more egalitarian economies and better public services…. Public opinion and public policy has generally shifted to the left… on balance… very much… change for the better. But… the… institutions that used to anchor the moderate wing of the Democratic Party has largely collapsed… [after making] very bad bet[s] on the invasion of Iraq and then stuck with fiscal austerity…. On one level, that was just deserts. But on another level, it’s been a catastrophe…. The moderate side of the party has largely lost the capacity to be proactive and constructive rather than just saying “no” to a subset of agenda items elevated by the left…. Someone who’d like to run for state legislature in an R+4 seat can’t affiliate herself with a broadly recognizable moderate Dem brand identity. I worry in particular about the incentives facing longshot candidates…

Leave a comment


ONE IMAGE: Physical Fitness Training:

Taylor Swift performs in East Rutherford, New Jersey, in May 2023

“Taylor Swift…revealed how she had prepared for her Eras tour. “Every day I would run on the treadmill, singing the entire set list out loud. Fast for fast songs, and a jog or a fast walk for slow songs. Then I had three months of dance training, because I wanted to get it in my bones…”

Refer a friend


ONE VIDEO: King Phillip’s War:

Give a gift subscription


Very Briefly Noted:

  1. Economics: Sam Unsted: Bond rally <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-30/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day>: ‘The narrative that the Fed is done with hiking rates and that inflation is slowing has fueled the strongest month for bond markets since the 1980s. Treasuries, agency and mortgage debt have all rallied, providing a boost to bond investors who have been bracing themselves for a third year of losses…

  2. Tim Duy: Fed Watch: ‘Core CPI inflation came in as expected at 0.3% for November…. If, as seems reasonable, the next two core-PCE inflation readings average 0.15%…. By January, it is very possible, if not very likely, that inflation would have been effectively at target in six of the past seven months. That means: There is no “hard last mile” to return to 2% inflation. Inflation is already at 2% and has been since June. Real policy rates assuming a 2% year-ahead inflation forecast will still be above 3% by January…. I can’t see how in private the Fed doves aren’t already pounding the table to begin normalizing policy rates…

  3. Claudia Goldin & al. (200^): The Homecoming of American College Women: The Reversal of the College Gender Gap <https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.20.4.133>: ‘One source of the persistent female advantage in K–12 school performance and the new female lead in college attainment is the higher incidence of behavioral problems (or lower level of noncognitive skills) among boys. Boys have a much higher incidence than do girls of school disciplinary and behavior problems, and spend far fewer hours doing homework (Jacob, 2002). Controlling for these noncognitive behavioral factors can explain virtually the entire female advantage in college attendance for the high school graduating class of 1992, after adjusting for family background, test scores, and high school achievement…. The source of boys’ higher incidence of behavioral problems is an area of active research and could be due to their later maturation as well as their higher rates of impatience (Silverman, 2003). Women are now the majority of undergraduates and those receiving a bachelor’s degree…

  4. Central Country: You Xianying: The ‘new three’: How China came to lead solar cell, lithium battery and EV manufacturing <https://chinadialogue.net/en/business/new-three-china-solar-cell-lithium-battery-ev/>: ‘Government support, economies of scale and constant innovation have helped propel China in key transition industries…. China accounts for more than 80% of the global solar cell exports, more than 50% of lithium-ion batteries and more than 20% of electric vehicles.

    The main propellers behind the surging trio are consistent government support, an early start, strong and low-cost domestic supply chains, and a massive home market driving economies of scale… [plus] Chinese companies’ ability to continuously [process] innovate…

  5. Public Reason: Seth Masket: Let’s not ignore the real reason Democrats struggle with white working class voters <https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/working-class-voters-biden-democrats-rcna128556>: ‘Nixon…commissioned several studies that found that working class voters had significant economic anxiety… and resentment toward people of color and educated protesters. Nixon… ignored the first… leaned in hard on the second…. Democrats are still the party of poorer people, most people of color and, increasingly, college-educated whites, while the Republicans are the party, somewhat paradoxically, of white people without college education and white people who are wealthy. And in an era where presidential elections are won by just a few tens of thousands of votes across a handful of swing states, it doesn’t take much shifting to make all the difference in the world. That’s why Trump and Biden were in the swing state of Michigan. Each is trying to convince working class voters there that he’s on their side…

  6. Alex Tolley: Comment <https://braddelong.substack.com/p/successful-future-humanities-programs/comment/44498705?r=d0v>: ‘C P Snow… expressed concern…in his 1959 lecture “The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution”…. 60+ years later, science has made huge strides forward, yet we pick our leaders from the humanities, whose ignorance of basic science is not just appalling, but in the US and UK, often worn as a badge of honor…. I don’t think we need to have a strictly technocratic governance, but we really need better informed governance to successfully navigate our increasingly technological and complex world…

  7. GPT-LLM-ML: Alberto Romero: ‘People are calling out the “fake” Gemini <https://substack.com/@thealgorithmicbridge/note/c-45043263> demo that Google put out on Wednesday…. Google had artificially altered the interaction with Gemini, which had actually been static, over images and text, and with more convoluted prompt techniques that were “shortened for brevity.” People called it deceptive, misleading, and disingenuous. They ended up criticizing not just Google but also Gemini because it can’t really do what it was shown in the video. But the truth is, benchmark-wise, it’s still the best AI model in the world…

  8. June Yoon: AI chip contenders face daunting ‘moats’ <https://www.ft.com/content/89745f19-1968-4c46-aaf2-5c6a6a50067f>:

    ‘Barriers to entry in an industry dominated by TSMC and Nvidia are very high…. Painfully long lead times for new entrants, which is especially perilous in a rapidly evolving industry. At the same time, Nvidia and TSMC’s fat margins mean more cash for research and development, accelerating the pace of next-generation technology releases. The latter spends more than $30bn in capital expenditure each year.  With momentum in their favour, the gap between Nvidia and TSMC and their competitors has been widening over the past year…

  9. Grifters, Cyber & Otherwise: Ezra Klein: ‘My thinking right now is very similar to Derek’s. This is just an annus horribilis for effective altruism. EA ended up with two big swings here. One of the richest people in the world. Control of the board of the most important AI company in the world. Both ended in catastrophe. EA prides itself on consequentialist thinking but when its adherents wield real power it’s ending in disaster. The movement really needs to wonder why…

  10. Science Fiction: MurderBot: ‘This place was creepy <https://www.amazon.com/dp/B075DGHHQL>. I reminded myself that the terrible thing that had most likely happened here was me. Somehow that didn’t help…

Get 33% off a group subscription


SubStack Posts:

Leave a comment

Subscribe now