Election Night 2026
A timetable for when to watch, what to watch, and what each early result is likely to tell you as Americans vote in the context of a chaos-monkey Trump with a -23%-point net approval rating. Forecasters say Democrats are favored to win both House and Senate control. A gerrymandered map, a likely-voter screen and a $10 billion ad war are the ways it could still fall short:
It is a cliché, but democracy really is on the ballot. Again.
We have:
<https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-2026-poll-closing>
And this is what you are supposed to be watching, according to: <https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/key-house-races-to-watch-early-on>:
15:00 PST: eastern Indiana and Kentucky: The first poll closings and thus the first real numbers:
KY-06 (Lexington), open seat: Republican Ralph Alvarado vs. Democrat Zach Dembo, in a district Trump won by 15.
IN-05: Look at Hamilton County wihich Trump won 52–46 in 2024.
16:00 PST: Florida (most), Georgia, Virginia, South Carolina, Vermont:
Senate: Georgia: Jon Ossoff, Likely D, should be called early.
Senate: South Carolina: Darline Graham vs. Annie Andrews is close in the polls so a quick call or a long count tells you a lot.
FL-14: If Democrats Kathy Castor (FL-14) and Jared Moskowitz (FL-25) both lose in their newly gerrymandered district,s Republicans probably keep control of the House.
FL-22: Pia Dandiya (D) vs. Casey Askar (R) in a race that is 50-50 if the polls are right.
VA-02: If Republican Jen Kiggans wins what looks like a 1-in-8 shot against Elaine Luria, Republicans probably keep control of the House.
16:30 PST: Ohio, North Carolina, West Virginia
Senate: Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R) is a 50/50 race according to the polls.,
OH-07: Max Miller (R) vs. Brian Poindexter (D) is a 50/50 race in a Trump +11 seat.
17:00 PST: the big wave (12 Senate races, 12 governor races, 161 House seats):
States closing: Pennsylvania, Maine, Michigan (most), New Hampshire, most of Texas, Kansas (most), the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, New Jersey, Illinois and others. https://www.270towin.com/poll-closing-times/
Senate: Maine: Susan Collins (R) vs. Troy Jackson (D) -1.8%-points.
Senate: Texas: Ken Paxton (R, non-incumbent) vs. James Talarico (D) -1.8%-points.
Senate: Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D, non-incumbent) vs. Mike Rogers (R) +4.8%-points.
Senate: New Hampshire: Chris Pappas (D, non-incumbent) vs. John Sununu (R) +6.0%-points.
Senate: Kansas: Roger Marshall (R) vs. Adam Hamilton (D) -2.1%-points.
Senate: Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) vs. Scott Colom (D) +3.0%-points.
By 17:00 PST we should know, mostly from VA-02, FL-14, FL-22, OH-07, and the Ohio Senate race, whether this is a:
superwave,
a wave,
a normal opposition party congressional-swing win, or
a disappointment.
Trump's approval is 37%. Registered Democrats have cast 45% of early ballots to Republicans' 31%, and Hispanic early turnout is running ahead of both 2022 and 2024. Yet there are reasons for caution. Marist's likely-voter screen shrinks the Democratic lead to 8 points, and enthusiasm lags among younger and nonwhite voters. Republicans are outspending Democrats in Senate toss-ups.